New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Effect of Aquathol K Treatments on Activity Patterns of Largemouth Bass in Two Coves of Lake Seminole, Georgia

Thirty largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoide s Lacepde) were implanted with radio tags in late October 2003 in two coves of Lake Seminole, Georgia, and tracked over a 24-hour period about every 10 days to determine their response to herbicide application. After five weeks of tracking, hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata Royle) in each cove was treated in early December 2003 with dipotassium salt of endothall (Aquathol K; 7-oxabicyclo [2.2.1] heptane-2,3-dicarboxylic acid) at a rate of 3.5 ppm. Largemouth bass were tracked during application and tracking continued for three months post treatment to assess effects of herbicide treatment on activity patterns. The treatment in Desser Cove successfully reduced hydrilla in approximately half the cove. However, the treatment in Peacock Lake completely eliminated all submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) by April 2004. Movement and activity centers remained similar between treatment periods in Desser Cove, but increased after treatment in Peacock Lake. Depth occupied by telemetered fish decreased after Aquathol K treatment in both coves. In general, behavior of largemouth bass did not change appreciably during treatment, and only minor changes were observed in the posttreatment period in Peacock Lake, where all SAV was eliminated. Fish showed little attraction to or movement away from treatment areas, and fish migration from either cove was nil after treatment. Application of Aquathol K and subsequent reduction of SAV had little effect on largemouth bass behavior or movement. (PDF has 8 pages.)

Seasonal Biomass and Carbohydrate Allocation Patterns in Southern Minnesota Curlyleaf Pondweed Populations

Four southern Minnesota populations of curlyleaf pondweed ( Potamogeton crispus L.) were sampled monthly from January 2001 to November 2002 to determine seasonal phenological, biomass, and carbohydrate allocation patterns. Low periods of carbohydrate storage in the seasonal phenological cycle indicate potentially vulnerable periods in the plant’s life cycle and may be the ideal time to initiate management and control efforts.

Measurements of Flow Patterns and Velocities of Gas -Water Two -Phase Flows Using Electrical Resistance Imaging

This paper presents a measurement of flow patterns and flow velocities of gas-water two-phase flows based on the technique of electrical resistance tomography (ERT) in a 40m horizontal flow loop. A single-plane and dual-plane ERT sensor on conductive ring technique were used to gather sufficient information for the implementation of flow characteristics particularly flow pattern recognition and air cavity velocity measurement. A fast data collection strategy was applied to the dual-plane ERT sensor and an iterative algorithm was used for image reconstruction. Results, in respect to flow patterns and velocity maps, are reported.

Fish Habitat Utilization Patterns and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Marine Protected Areas in Hawaii: Integration of NOAA Digital Benthic Habitat Mapping and Coral Reef Ecological Studies

Over the past four decades, the state of Hawaii has developed a system of eleven Marine Life Conservation Districts (MLCDs) to conserve and replenish marine resources around the state. Initially established to provide opportunities for public interaction with the marine environment, these MLCDs vary in size, habitat quality, and management regimes, providing an excellent opportunity to test hypotheses concerning marine protected area (MPA) design and function using multiple discreet sampling units. NOAA/NOS/NCCOS/Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s Biogeography Team developed digital benthic habitat maps for all MLCD and adjacent habitats. These maps were used to evaluate the efficacy of existing MLCDs for biodiversity conservation and fisheries replenishment, using a spatially explicit stratified random sampling design. Coupling the distribution of habitats and species habitat affinities using GIS technology elucidates species habitat utilization patterns at scales that are commensurate with ecosystem processes and is useful in defining essential fish habitat and biologically relevant boundaries for MPAs. Analysis of benthic cover validated the a priori classification of habitat types and provided justification for using these habitat strata to conduct stratified random sampling and analyses of fish habitat utilization patterns. Results showed that the abundance and distribution of species and assemblages exhibited strong correlations with habitat types. Fish assemblages in the colonized and uncolonized hardbottom habitats were found to be most similar among all of the habitat types. Much of the macroalgae habitat sampled was macroalgae growing on hard substrate, and as a result showed similarities with the other hardbottom assemblages. The fish assemblages in the sand habitats were highly variable but distinct from the other habitat types. Management regime also played an important role in the abundance and distribution of fish assemblages. MLCDs had higher values for most fish assemblage characteristics (e.g. biomass, size, diversity) compared with adjacent fished areas and Fisheries Management Areas (FMAs) across all habitat types. In addition, apex predators and other targeted resources species were more abundant and larger in the MLCDs, illustrating the effectiveness of these closures in conserving fish populations. Habitat complexity, quality, size and level of protection from fishing were important determinates of MLCD effectiveness with respect to their associated fish assemblages. (PDF contains 217 pages)

Fish assemblages and benthic habitats of Buck Island Reef National Monument (St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands) and the surrounding seascape: A characterization of spatial and temporal patterns

Since 1999, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch of the Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment (CCMA-BB) has been working with federal and territorial partners to characterize, monitor, and assess the status of the marine environment around northeastern St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. This effort is part of the broader NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program’s (CRCP) National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program (NCREMP). With support from CRCP’s NCREMP, CCMA conducts the “Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring project” (CREM) with goals to: (1) spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance, and size of marine fauna associated with shallow water coral reef seascapes (mosaics of coral reefs, seagrasses, sand and mangroves); (2) relate this information to in situ fine-scale habitat data and the spatial distribution and diversity of habitat types using benthic habitat maps; (3) use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting; (4) establish the efficacy of those management decisions; and (5) develop data collection and data management protocols. The monitoring effort in northeastern St. Croix was conducted through partnerships with the National Park Service (NPS) and the Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources (VI-DPNR). The geographical focal point of the research is Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), a protected area originally established in 1961 and greatly expanded in 2001; however, the work also encompassed a large portion of the recently created St. Croix East End Marine Park (EEMP). Project funding is primarily provided by NOAA CRCP, CCMA and NPS. In recent decades, scientific and non-scientific observations have indicated that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystem around northeastern St. Croix have been adversely impacted by a wide range of environmental stressors. The major stressors have included the mass Diadema die off in the early 1980s, a series of hurricanes beginning with Hurricane Hugo in 1989, overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events, with the most severe mass bleaching episode in 2005. The area is also an important recreational resource supporting boating, snorkeling, diving and other water based activities. With so many potential threats to the marine ecosystem and a dramatic change in management strategy in 2003 when the park’s Interim Regulations (Presidential Proclamation No. 7392) established BIRNM as one of the first fully protected marine areas in NPS system, it became critical to identify existing marine fauna and their spatial distributions and temporal dynamics. This provides ecologically meaningful data to assess ecosystem condition, support decision making in spatial planning (including the evaluation of efficacy of current management strategies) and determine future information needs. The ultimate goal of the work is to better understand the coral reef ecosystems and to provide information toward protecting and enhancing coral reef ecosystems for the benefit of the system itself and to sustain the many goods and services that it offers society. This Technical Memorandum contains analysis of the first six years of fish survey data (2001-2006) and associated characterization of the benthos (1999-2006). The primary objectives were to quantify changes in fish species and assemblage diversity, abundance, biomass and size structure and to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of key species or groups of species and to compare community structure inside (protected) versus outside (fished) areas of BIRNM. (PDF contains 100 pages).

Distribution patterns of fish eggs in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf Ecosystem, 1977-1987

This atlas presents information on fish eggs and temperature data collected from broadscale ichthyoplankton surveys conducted off the U.S. northeast coast from ]977 to 1987. Distribution and abundance information is provided for 33 taxa in the form of graphs and contoured egg-density maps by month and survey. Comments are included on interannual and interseasonal trends in spawning intensity. Data on 14 additional but less numerous taxa are provided in tabular form. (PDF file contains 316 pages.)

Patterns of succession in benthic infaunal communities following dredging and dredged material disposal in Monterey Bay

This report is the final product of a two-year study conducted for the Office, Chief of Engineers, by the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, California, under Contract No. DACW39-74-C-OI51 with the Environmental Effects Laboratory (EEL), U. S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station (WES), Yicksburg, Mississippi. (PDF contains 192 pages)

Odontocete Stranding Patterns in the Main Hawaiian Islands 1937–2002): how do they compare with live animal surveys?

In this study we (1) synthesized 65 yr of odontocete stranding data around the main Hawaiian Islands (1937–2002); (2) analyzed stranding patterns and trends over time; and (3) compared occurrence patterns based on sightings of live animals with stranding data and evaluated the compatibility of these data sets. From 1937 to 2002, 202 odontocete strandings were recorded by the National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Regional Office. Strandings increased through time due to increased reporting effort and occurred throughout the year. The four most common of 16 species reported were Kogia spp. (18%), spinner dolphins (Stenella longirostris) (15%), striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba) (11%), and sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) (10%). The highest proportion of strandings was recorded on O‘ahu (48%), followed by Maui/La¯na‘i (24%), Kaua‘i (12%), Hawai‘i (11%), and Moloka‘i (5%). Comparison with four previously published live animal survey studies suggests that stranding records are a good indicator of species composition and yield reasonable data on the frequency of occurrence of species in the region they cover.

Variability in the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay, as observed by HF radar data

Two high-frequency (HF) radar stations were installed on the coast of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay in 2009, providing high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial coverage of currents in the area for the first time. This has made it possible to quantitatively assess the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales for the period 2009-2010. The analysis was conducted using the Barnett-Preisendorfer approach to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of reanalysis surface winds and HF radar-derived surface currents. The CCA yields two canonical patterns: the first wind-current interaction pattern corresponds to the classical Ekman drift at the sea surface, whilst the second describes an anticyclonic/cyclonic surface circulation. The results obtained demonstrate that local winds play an important role in driving the upper water circulation. The wind-current interaction timescales are mainly related to diurnal breezes and synoptic variability. In particular, the breezes force diurnal currents in waters of the continental shelf and slope of the south-eastern Bay. It is concluded that the breezes may force diurnal currents over considerably wider areas than that covered by the HF radar, considering that the northern and southern continental shelves of the Bay exhibit stronger diurnal than annual wind amplitudes.

Recent trends in the distribution patterns and catch rates from trawl surveys in Lake Victoria, Tanzania

Trawl surveys to assess the stocks of Lake Victoria (Tanzania) for estimates of biomass and yield, together with the establishment of exploitation patterns, are being undertaken under the Lake Victoria Fisheries Research Project. Preliminary surveys to establish the sampling stations and strategy were carried out between October 1997 and February 1998. Three cruises to cover the whole of Tanzanian waters were undertaken with 133 sampling stations. Data on each rates, species composition, and distribution were collected. Three sampling areas were designated: area A, B and C. In each area, almost the same distribution pattern over depth was found. Lates niloticus (L) formed over 90% of the total catch. Most L. niloticus were from 5-40 cm TL. Abundance decreased with depth, few fish were found deeper than 40m and most fish were caught at <20 m deep. Catch rates varied considerably between stations and areas. Area A had the highest catch rates with little variation over the stations. There is an indication of recovery of species diversity compared with the surveys of RV Kiboko(1985 and 1989)

Anatomical and developmental patterns of interleukin-2 gene expression in the mouse: analysis of IL-2 expressing cells and partial characterization of interactions involved in mediating IL-2 gene expression in vivo

Interleukin-2 (IL-2) is an important mediator in the vertebrate immune system. IL-2 is a potent growth factor that mature T lymphocytes use as a proliferation signal and the production of IL-2 is crucial for the clonal expansion of antigen-specific T cells in the primary immune response. IL-2 driven proliferation is dependent on the interaction of the lymphokine with its cognate multichain receptor. IL-2 expression is induced only upon stimulation and transcriptional activation of the IL-2 gene relies extensively on the coordinate interaction of numerous inducible and constitutive trans-acting factors. Over the past several years, thousands of papers have been published regarding molecular and cellular aspects of IL-2 gene expression and IL-2 function. The vast majority of these reports describe work that has been carried out in vitro. However, considerably less is known about control of IL-2 gene expression and IL-2 function in vivo.

To gain new insight into the regulation of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, anatomical and developmental patterns of IL-2 gene expression in the mouse were established by employing in situ hybridization and immunohistochemical staining methodologies to tissue sections generated from normal mice and mutant animals in which T -cell development was perturbed. Results from these studies revealed several interesting aspects of IL-2 gene expression, such as (1) induction of IL-2 gene expression and protein synthesis in the thymus, the primary site of T-cell development in the body, (2) cell-type specificity of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, (3) participation of IL-2 in the extrathymic expansion of mature T cells in particular tissues, independent of an acute immune response to foreign antigen, (4) involvement of IL-2 in maintaining immunologic balance in the mucosal immune system, and (5) potential function of IL-2 in early events associated with hematopoiesis.

Extensive analysis of IL-2 mRNA accumulation and protein production in the murine thymus at various stages of development established the existence of two classes of intrathymic IL-2 producing cells. One class of intrathymic IL-2 producers was found exclusively in the fetal thymus. Cells belonging to this subset were restricted to the outermost region of the thymus. IL-2 expression in the fetal thymus was highly transient; a dramatic peak ofiL-2 mRNA accumulation was identified at day 14.5 of gestation and maximal IL-2 protein production was observed 12 hours later, after which both IL-2 mRNA and protein levels rapidly decreased. Significantly, the presence of IL-2 expressing cells in the day 14-15 fetal thymus was not contingent on the generation of T-cell receptor (TcR) positive cells. The second class of IL-2 producing cells was also detectable in the fetal thymus (cells found in this class represented a minority subset of IL-2 producers in the fetal thymus) but persist in the thymus during later stages of development and after birth. Intrathymic IL-2 producers in postnatal animals were located in the subcapsular region and cortex, indicating that these cells reside in the same areas where immature T cells are consigned. The frequency of IL-2 expressing cells in the postnatal thymus was extremely low, indicating that induction of IL-2 expression and protein synthesis are indicative of a rare activation event. Unlike the fetal class of intrathymic IL-2 producers, the presence of IL-2 producing cells in the postnatal thymus was dependent on to the generation of TcR+ cells. Subsequent examination of intrathymic IL-2 production in mutant postnatal mice unable to produce either αβ or γδ T cells showed that postnatal IL-2 producers in the thymus belong to both αβ and γδ lineages. Additionally, further studies indicated that IL-2 synthesis by immature αβ -T cells depends on the expression of bonafide TcR αβ-heterodimers. Taken altogether, IL-2 production in the postnatal thymus relies on the generation of αβ or γδ-TcR^+ cells and induction of IL-2 protein synthesis can be linked to an activation event mediated via the TcR.

With regard to tissue specificity of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, analysis of whole body sections obtained from normal neonatal mouse pups by in situ hybridization demonstrated that IL-2 mRNA^+ cells were found in both lymphoid and nonlymphoid tissues with which T cells are associated, such as the thymus (as described above), dermis and gut. Tissues devoid of IL-2 mRNA^+ cells included brain, heart, lung, liver, stomach, spine, spinal cord, kidney, and bladder. Additional analysis of isolated tissues taken from older animals revealed that IL-2 expression was undetectable in bone marrow and in nonactivated spleen and lymph nodes. Thus, it appears that extrathymic IL-2 expressing cells in nonimmunologically challenged animals are relegated to particular epidermal and epithelial tissues in which characterized subsets of T cells reside and thatinduction of IL-2 gene expression associated with these tissues may be a result of T-cell activation therein.

Based on the neonatal in situ hybridization results, a detailed investigation into possible induction of IL-2 expression resulting in IL-2 protein synthesis in the skin and gut revealed that IL-2 expression is induced in the epidermis and intestine and IL-2 protein is available to drive cell proliferation of resident cells and/or participate in immune function in these tissues. Pertaining to IL-2 expression in the skin, maximal IL-2 mRNA accumulation and protein production were observed when resident Vγ_3^+ T-cell populations were expanding. At this age, both IL-2 mRNA^+ cells and IL-2 protein production were intimately associated with hair follicles. Likewise, at this age a significant number of CD3ε^+ cells were also found in association with follicles. The colocalization of IL-2 expression and CD3ε^+ cells suggests that IL-2 expression is induced when T cells are in contact with hair follicles. In contrast, neither IL-2 mRNA nor IL-2 protein were readily detected once T-cell density in the skin reached steady-state proportions. At this point, T cells were no longer found associated with hair follicles but were evenly distributed throughout the epidermis. In addition, IL-2 expression in the skin was contingent upon the presence of mature T cells therein and induction of IL-2 protein synthesis in the skin did not depend on the expression of a specific TcR on resident T cells. These newly disclosed properties of IL-2 expression in the skin indicate that IL-2 may play an additional role in controlling mature T-cell proliferation by participating in the extrathymic expansion of T cells, particularly those associated with the epidermis.

Finally, regarding IL-2 expression and protein synthesis in the gut, IL-2 producing cells were found associated with the lamina propria of neonatal animals and gut-associated IL-2 production persisted throughout life. In older animals, the frequency of IL-2 producing cells in the small intestine was not identical to that in the large intestine and this difference may reflect regional specialization of the mucosal immune system in response to enteric antigen. Similar to other instances of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, a failure to generate mature T cells also led to an abrogation of IL-2 protein production in the gut. The presence of IL-2 producing cells in the neonatal gut suggested that these cells may be generated during fetal development. Examination of the fetal gut to determine the distribution of IL-2 producing cells therein indicated that there was a tenfold increase in the number of gut-associated IL-2 producers at day 20 of gestation compared to that observed four days earlier and there was little difference between the frequency of IL-2 producing cells in prenatal versus neonatal gut. The origin of these fetally-derived IL-2 producing cells is unclear. Prior to the immigration of IL-2 inducible cells to the fetal gut and/or induction of IL-2 expression therein, IL-2 protein was observed in the fetal liver and fetal omentum, as well as the fetal thymus. Considering that induction of IL-2 protein synthesis may be an indication of future functional capability, detection of IL-2 producing cells in the fetal liver and fetal omentum raises the possibility that IL-2 producing cells in the fetal gut may be extrathymic in origin and IL-2 producing cells in these fetal tissues may not belong solely to the T lineage. Overall, these results provide increased understanding of the nature of IL-2 producing cells in the gut and how the absence of IL-2 production therein and in fetal hematopoietic tissues can result in the acute pathology observed in IL-2 deficient animals.