1000 resultados para dengue modeling


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INTRODUÇÃO: A letalidade da malária na região extra-amazônica é cerca de 80 vezes maior do que na Amazônia, que concentra 99,8% dos casos do país. Em áreas de transmissão de dengue, como o Rio de Janeiro, o atraso no diagnóstico e tratamento da malária dos pacientes com febre, provenientes de áreas endêmicas de malária, pode ser, entre outros fatores, devido à confusão entre o diagnóstico das duas doenças pelos generalistas da rede de assistência médica. Neste trabalho, apresentamos as consequências do atraso diagnóstico em três pacientes com malária por Plasmodium falciparum; P. malariae e P. vivax, que, após o périplo habitual para tratamento de dengue, procuraram a nossa instituição onde foram corretamente diagnosticados e submetidos aos tratamentos adequados. MÉTODOS: Descrição de três casos de malária diagnosticada tardiamente e encaminhados ao IPEC/ FIOCRUZ, entre os anos de 2007 e 2008. RESULTADOS: uma brasileira proveniente de Moçambique, primo-infectada por P. falciparum, com malária diagnosticada após 6 dias do início da febre, morreu com malária cerebral e choque. Outro paciente com malária por P. malariae teve um curso grave e prolongado, mas ficou curado após o tratamento específico. A terceira paciente diagnosticada tardiamente apresentou malária por P. vivax adquirida na região de Mata Atlântica no Estado do Rio. CONCLUSÕES: Os profissionais de saúde do Rio devem ser treinados para aperfeiçoar a vigilância e o tratamento oportuno da malária e evitar desfechos mórbidos e fatais. Sugere-se que uma investigação de focos de malária autóctone em áreas de mata no estado seja realizada.

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The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

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INTRODUCTION: To detect dengue virus, eggs of Aedes sp were collected in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in 2007. METHODS: Egg samples were subsequently hatched and the larvae were tested for the presence of dengue virus RNA by RT-PCR. RESULTS: Among the Aedes aegypti larvae samples, 163 (37.4%) out of 435 were positive, including 32 (10.9%) of 293 individual larvae samples concomitantly positive for two serotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Virological surveillance detecting coinfected vectors in the field could represent an important strategy for understanding the numerous factors involved in the transmission and clinical presentation of dengue.

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INTRODUCÃO: A dengue é uma arbovirose que vem causando sérios problemas de saúde pública, em regiões tropicais e subtropicais do planeta. MÉTODOS: Neste estudo, foram investigadas amostras de sangue de crianças, através da RT-PCR, com o intuito de se identificar sorotipos do vírus dengue nessa população infantil, em Manaus/AM, durante o ano de 2008. RESULTADOS: O DENV-3 foi o único sorotipo viral identificado. CONCLUSÕES: No presente estudo, 83% das crianças analisadas apresentaram resultado negativo para dengue através do RT-PCR sugerindo a ocorrência de outras doenças febris que necessitam ser esclarecidas.

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INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to verify the coexistence between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations in municipalities of the States of Paraná and Santa Catarina with different urbanization profiles where dengue occurs and evaluate their susceptibility to the organophosphate temephos. METHODS: The number of eggs per ovitrap were counted and incubated for hatching to identify the species. Data analysis of the populations was conducted to determine randomness and aggregation, using the variance-to-mean ratio (index of dispersion). Susceptibility to temephos was evaluated by estimation of the resistance ratios RR50 and RR95. Aedes aegypti samples were compared with the population Rockefeller and Aedes albopictus samples were compared with a population from the State of Santa Catarina and with the Rockefeller population. RESULTS: Coexistence between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the aggregation of their eggs were observed at all the sites analyzed in the State of Paraná. CONCLUSIONS: All the Aedes aegypti populations from the State of Parana showed alteration in susceptibility status to the organophosphate temephos, revealing incipient resistance. Similarly, all the Aedes albopictus populations (States of Paraná and Santa Catarina) presented survival when exposed to the organophosphate temephos.

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INTRODUCTION: The article describes the epidemiologic profile of dengue cases in Vitória, the capital of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2009, aimed at identifying risk groups regarding the incidence and severity of the disease. METHODS: Confirmed cases of dengue among city residents during ten years were classified as dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome and dengue with complications, and analyzed according to sex, age, race-color and education. RESULTS: The proportion of dengue cases was highest among women aged 20 to 29 years-old and similar between whites and blacks. A gradual decrease occurred in the percentage of dengue cases in the population aged 15 years-old or more, in the historical series of 10 years, and a growing increase in individuals less than 15 years-old, showing statistical significance. The fatality rate ranged from zero to 0.3% for all forms of dengue and from 0.2% to 18.2% for severe forms. CONCLUSIONS: The profile of those affected by the disease in the municipality is similar to those affected in Brazil. The increasing number of cases in individuals under 15 years-old corroborates the results of recent studies in other Brazilian municipalities.

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INTRODUÇÃO: A dengue é uma das doenças infecciosas mais frequentes no Brasil e um dos principais problemas de saúde pública no mundo, principalmente em regiões tropicais e subtropicais, com 2,5 a 3 bilhões de pessoas expostas ao risco de serem infectadas atualmente. Deste modo, o presente estudo teve como objetivo demonstrar as características epidemiológicas dos indivíduos acometidos por dengue, sua prevalência e seu processo epidêmico na região do Médio Solimões, Coari, Amazonas, no período de 2008 e 2009. MÉTODOS: Os dados epidemiológicos foram obtidos na Vigilância Epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde da Cidade de Coari-AM. As variáveis analisadas foram: mês da notificação, casos confirmados, gênero (sexo), faixa etária e bairro de residência. RESULTADOS: No total, foram notificados 1.003 casos (635 em 2008 e 368 em 2009), sendo diagnosticados 639 casos positivos. Destes, ± 54% acometerem indivíduos do sexo feminino e ± 46% do sexo masculino. As faixas etárias mais acometidas foram às observadas entre 10-49 anos; quanto à distribuição espacial, observamos o acometimento de indivíduos de bairros próximos a igarapés, lagos e com processo recente e desordenado de habitação. CONCLUSÕES: Deste modo, conclui-se que, durante o período estudado, houve um surto epidêmico de dengue na Cidade de Coari, AM. Entretanto, deve-se considerar que uma epidemia de dengue anterior pode ter ocorrido em Coari, sem que tenha tido o devido diagnóstico etiológico, ou que houveram pessoas com infecção passada que se deslocaram para a capital do Amazonas (Manaus), onde os vírus circulam desde 1998.

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This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

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INTRODUCTION: The dengue fever remains to be a disease of serious public health concern, and its incidence has increased in the past decades. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological incidence of dengue in the period 2001-2010. METHODS: This is an epidemiological study of dengue in the municipality of Aracaju, state of Sergipe, in the period between 2001 and 2010, whose data were obtained from the Information System of Diseases Notifications. A descriptive analysis of the number of confirmed cases of dengue, according to year, semester, sanitary district, age, and sex, was performed. RESULTS: There were 16,462 confirmed cases, especially in 2008, which obtained the highest incidence of the disease, with 10,485 confirmed cases. The first semester obtained the highest registration of cases during the years of research; this was predominated by females between 15 and 49 years old. With regard to the territorial distribution, the second district of the municipality obtained the highest number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: In 2008, in the City of Aracaju, SE, a significant increase in the proportion of dengue cases compared with other years was verified. However, a fast decline in the other years was observed, possibly because of the intensification of preventive actions to combat the mosquito that transmits the dengue virus.

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INTRODUCTION: Hepatic disorders caused by dengue infection may progress to severe manifestations, including mortality and morbidity. Cytokines are involved in it, such as the migration inhibitory factor of macrophages (MIF), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), natural killer cells (NK), B lymphocytes, and macrophages. METHODS: This study was carried out from January to April 2007 at a public hospital from the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil. Sixty-eight patients were studied concerning hepatic alterations, with 56 reported having classic dengue, 6 with hemorrhagic dengue grade I, and 6 with hemorrhagic dengue grade II. RESULTS: Among the 56 with classic dengue, 83.3% had aspartate aminotransferase (AST) alterations, and 69.6% had altered alanine aminotransferase (ALT). For those with hemorrhagic dengue grade I, 100% had AST alterations, and 83.3% had altered ALT. All the patients with hemorrhagic dengue grade II had AST and ALT alterations. AST variations reached 22.0 and 907.0, with an average value of 164.6. For ALT, we found variations between 25.0 and 867.0, with an average value of 166.07. There had been statistical significance between dengue clinical shapes and hepatic function markers. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the infection was predominant in adults, females, and in those with low income and education. The liver enzymes were of larger amount in hemorrhagic dengue, but there was weak statistical evidence of the clinical manifestations and transaminases. Major signs and clinical symptoms were fever, headache, myalgia, arthralgia, weakness, severe pain behind the eyes, and rashes.

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This report focuses on a fatality involving severe dengue fever and melioidosis in a 28-year-old truck driver residing in Pacoti in northeastern Brazil. He exhibited long-term respiratory symptoms (48 days) and went through a wide-ranging clinical investigation at three hospitals, after initial clinical diagnoses of pneumonia, visceral leishmaniasis, tuberculosis, and fungal sepsis. After death, Burkholderia pseudomallei was isolated in a culture of ascitic fluid. Dengue virus type 1 was detected by polymerase chain reaction in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF); this infection was the cause of death. This description reinforces the need to consider melioidosis among the reported differential diagnoses of community-acquired infections where both melioidosis and dengue fever are endemic.