Les traces de pneumatiques en sciences forensiques : de l'analyse chimique à l'évaluation de la force probante

This work is focused on the development of a methodology for the use of chemical characteristic of tire traces to help answer the following question: "Is the offending tire at the origin of the trace found on the crime scene?". This methodology goes from the trace sampling on the road to statistical analysis of its chemical characteristics. Knowledge about the composition and manufacture of tread tires as well as a review of instrumental techniques used for the analysis of polymeric materials were studied to select, as an ansi vi cal technique for this research, pyrolysis coupled to a gas Chromatograph with a mass spectrometry detector (Py-GC/MS). An analytical method was developed and optimized to obtain the lowest variability between replicates of the same sample. Within-variability of the tread was evaluated regarding width and circumference with several samples taken from twelve tires of different brands and/or models. The variability within each of the treads (within-variability) and between the treads (between-variability) could be quantified. Different statistical methods have shown that within-variability is lower than between-variability, which helped differentiate these tires. Ten tire traces were produced with tires of different brands and/or models by braking tests. These traces have been adequately sampled using sheets of gelatine. Particles of each trace were analysed using the same methodology as for the tires at their origin. The general chemical profile of a trace or of a tire has been characterized by eighty-six compounds. Based on a statistical comparison of the chemical profiles obtained, it has been shown that a tire trace is not differentiable from the tire at its origin but is generally differentiable from tires that are not at its origin. Thereafter, a sample containing sixty tires was analysed to assess the discrimination potential of the developed methodology. The statistical results showed that most of the tires of different brands and models are differentiable. However, tires of the same brand and model with identical characteristics, such as country of manufacture, size and DOT number, are not differentiable. A model, based on a likelihood ratio approach, was chosen to evaluate the results of the comparisons between the chemical profiles of the traces and tires. The methodology developed was finally blindly tested using three simulated scenarios. Each scenario involved a trace of an unknown tire as well as two tires possibly at its origin. The correct results for the three scenarios were used to validate the developed methodology. The different steps of this work were useful to collect the required information to test and validate the underlying assumption that it is possible to help determine if an offending tire » or is not at the origin of a trace, by means of a statistical comparison of their chemical profile. This aid was formalized by a measure of the probative value of the evidence, which is represented by the chemical profile of the trace of the tire. - Ce travail s'est proposé de développer une méthodologie pour l'exploitation des caractéristiques chimiques des traces de pneumatiques dans le but d'aider à répondre à la question suivante : «Est-ce que le pneumatique incriminé est ou n'est pas à l'origine de la trace relevée sur les lieux ? ». Cette méthodologie s'est intéressée du prélèvement de la trace de pneumatique sur la chaussée à l'exploitation statistique de ses caractéristiques chimiques. L'acquisition de connaissances sur la composition et la fabrication de la bande de roulement des pneumatiques ainsi que la revue de techniques instrumentales utilisées pour l'analyse de matériaux polymériques ont permis de choisir, comme technique analytique pour la présente recherche, la pyrolyse couplée à un chromatographe en phase gazeuse avec un détecteur de spectrométrie de masse (Py-GC/MS). Une méthode analytique a été développée et optimisée afin d'obtenir la plus faible variabilité entre les réplicas d'un même échantillon. L'évaluation de l'intravariabilité de la bande de roulement a été entreprise dans sa largeur et sa circonférence à l'aide de plusieurs prélèvements effectués sur douze pneumatiques de marques et/ou modèles différents. La variabilité au sein de chacune des bandes de roulement (intravariabilité) ainsi qu'entre les bandes de roulement considérées (intervariabilité) a pu être quantifiée. Les différentes méthodes statistiques appliquées ont montré que l'intravariabilité est plus faible que l'intervariabilité, ce qui a permis de différencier ces pneumatiques. Dix traces de pneumatiques ont été produites à l'aide de pneumatiques de marques et/ou modèles différents en effectuant des tests de freinage. Ces traces ont pu être adéquatement prélevées à l'aide de feuilles de gélatine. Des particules de chaque trace ont été analysées selon la même méthodologie que pour les pneumatiques à leur origine. Le profil chimique général d'une trace de pneumatique ou d'un pneumatique a été caractérisé à l'aide de huitante-six composés. Sur la base de la comparaison statistique des profils chimiques obtenus, il a pu être montré qu'une trace de pneumatique n'est pas différenciable du pneumatique à son origine mais est, généralement, différenciable des pneumatiques qui ne sont pas à son origine. Par la suite, un échantillonnage comprenant soixante pneumatiques a été analysé afin d'évaluer le potentiel de discrimination de la méthodologie développée. Les méthodes statistiques appliquées ont mis en évidence que des pneumatiques de marques et modèles différents sont, majoritairement, différenciables entre eux. La méthodologie développée présente ainsi un bon potentiel de discrimination. Toutefois, des pneumatiques de la même marque et du même modèle qui présentent des caractéristiques PTD (i.e. pays de fabrication, taille et numéro DOT) identiques ne sont pas différenciables. Un modèle d'évaluation, basé sur une approche dite du likelihood ratio, a été adopté pour apporter une signification au résultat des comparaisons entre les profils chimiques des traces et des pneumatiques. La méthodologie mise en place a finalement été testée à l'aveugle à l'aide de la simulation de trois scénarios. Chaque scénario impliquait une trace de pneumatique inconnue et deux pneumatiques suspectés d'être à l'origine de cette trace. Les résultats corrects obtenus pour les trois scénarios ont permis de valider la méthodologie développée. Les différentes étapes de ce travail ont permis d'acquérir les informations nécessaires au test et à la validation de l'hypothèse fondamentale selon laquelle il est possible d'aider à déterminer si un pneumatique incriminé est ou n'est pas à l'origine d'une trace, par le biais d'une comparaison statistique de leur profil chimique. Cette aide a été formalisée par une mesure de la force probante de l'indice, qui est représenté par le profil chimique de la trace de pneumatique.

New insights into the phylogenetics and biogeography of Arum (Araceae): unravelling its evolutionary history

The heat- and odour-producing genus Arum (Araceae) has interested scientists for centuries. This long-term interest has allowed a deep knowledge of some complex processes, such as the physiology and dynamics of its characteristic lure-and-trap pollination system, to be built up. However, mainly because of its large distributional range and high degree of morphological variation, species' limits and relationships are still under discussion. Today, the genus comprises 28 species subdivided into two subgenera, two sections and six subsections. In this study, the phylogeny of the genus is inferred on the basis of four plastid regions, and the evolution of several morphological characters is investigated. Our phylogenetic hypothesis is not in agreement with the current infrageneric classification of the genus and challenges the monophyly of several species. This demonstrates the need for a new infrageneric classification based on characters reflecting the evolution of this enigmatic genus. To investigate the biogeography of Arum deeply, further spatiotemporal analyses were performed, addressing the importance of the Mediterranean basin in the diversification of Arum. Our results suggest that its centre of origin was the European-Aegean region, and that major diversification happened during the last 10 Myr.

The Electoral Determinants of Collective Remittances: The Mexican 3x1 Program for Migrants

The 3x1 Program for Migrants is a matching grant scheme that seeks to direct the money sent by migrant organizations abroad to the provision of public and social infrastructure, and to productive projects in migrants’ communities of origin. To do so, the municipal, state, and federal administrations match the amount sent by hometown associations by 3 to 1. This opens the door to the political manipulation of the program. We explore the impact of a particular facet of Mexican political life on the operation of the 3x1: its recent democratization and the increasing political competition at the municipal level. Relying on the literature on redistributive politics, we posit that an increasing number of effective parties in elections may have two different effects. On the one hand, the need to cater to more heterogeneous constituencies may increase the provision of public projects. On the other hand, since smaller coalitions are needed to win elections under tighter competition, fewer public and more private (clientelistic) projects could be awarded. Using a unique dataset on the 3x1 Program for Migrants for over 2,400 municipalities in the period 2002 through 2007, we find a lower provision of public goods in electorally competitive jurisdictions. Thus, we remain sceptical about the program success in promoting public goods in politically competitive locations with high migration levels.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in the Seychelles according to different definitions, contribution of components, and agreement between different definitions

Background: The metabolic syndrome (MS) represents a cluster of metabolic disorders that predicts diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Several definitions exist and further descriptive and prospective data are needed to compare these definitions and their significance in different populations. Objective: We examined, in a country of the African region, i) the prevalence of MS according to three major definitions (ATP, IDF, WHO); ii) the contribution of individual MS components; and iii) the agreement between the three considered definitions. We also examined the prevalence among diabetics and non-diabetics. Methods: We conducted an examination survey in a sample representative of the general population aged 25-64 of the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region), attended by 1255 persons (participation rate of 80.2%). Results: The prevalence of MS was similar with either definition of MS in men (24%--25%) but differed in women (WHO: 25%, ATP: 32%; IDF: 35%). Upon exclusion of diabetic persons, the prevalence was 5-10% lower for all three MS definitions: most diabetic persons had MS although a substantial proportion of diabetic men aged 45--64 did not have MS. The following components were found most often among persons with MS: 90% had high blood pressure (HBP) and 78% had obesity (ATP); 95% had obesity and 84% had HBP (WHO), and 89% had HBP and 75% had impaired glucose regulation (IDF) - not considering impaired glucose regulation and obesity that are compulsory components of the WHO and IDF definitions, respectively. Among persons with MS based on either of the three definitions (37% of total population), less than 80% met both ATP and IDF criteria, 67% both WHO and IDF criteria, 54% both WHO and ATP criteria and only 37% met all three definitions. Conclusion: We found a fairly high prevalence of MS in an African population. However, because there was only poor agreement between the 3 MS definitions, the fairly similar proportions of MS based on ATP, IDF or WHO definitions identified, to a substantial extent, different subjects as having MS.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in the Seychelles according to different definitions, contribution of components, and agreement between different definitions

Background: The metabolic syndrome (MS) represents a cluster of metabolic disorders that predicts diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Several definitions exist and further descriptive and prospective data are needed to compare these definitions and their significance in different populations. Objective: We examined, in a country of the African region, i) the prevalence of MS according to three major definitions (ATP, IDF, WHO); ii) the contribution of individual MS components; and iii) the agreement between the three considered definitions. We also examined the prevalence among diabetics and non-diabetics. Methods: We conducted an examination survey in a sample representative of the general population aged 25-64 of the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region), attended by 1255 persons (participation rate of 80.2%). Results: The prevalence of MS was similar with either definition of MS in men (24%-25%) but differed in women (WHO: 25%, ATP: 32%; IDF: 35%). Upon exclusion of diabetic persons, the prevalence was 5-10% lower for all three MS definitions: most diabetic persons had MS although a substantial proportion of diabetic men aged 45-64 did not have MS. The following components were found most often among persons with MS: 90% had high blood pressure (HBP) and 78% had obesity (ATP); 95% had obesity and 84% had HBP (WHO), and 89% had HBP and 75% had impaired glucose regulation (IDF) -not considering impaired glucose regulation and obesity that are compulsory components of the WHO and IDF definitions, respectively. Among persons with MS based on either of the three definitions (37% of total population), less than 80% met both ATP and IDF criteria, 67% both WHO and IDF criteria, 54% both WHO and ATP criteria and only 37% met all three definitions. Conclusions. We found a fairly high prevalence of MS in an African population. However, because there was only poor agreement between the 3 MS definitions, the fairly similar proportions of MS based on ATP, IDF or WHO definitions identified, to a substantial extent, different subjects as having MS.

Case-control study of factors associated with chronic Chagas heart disease in patients over 50 years of age

A case-control study on chronic Chagas heart disease (CCHD) was carried out between 1997 and 2005. Ninety patients over 50 years of age were examined for factors related to (CCHD). Fourty-six patients (51.1%) with Chagas heart disease (anomalous ECG) were assigned to the case group and 44 (48.9%) were included in the control group as carriers of undetermined forms of chronic disease. Social, demographic (age, gender, skin color, area of origin), epidemiological (permanence within an endemic zone, family history of Chagas heart disease or sudden death, physical strain, alcoholism, and smoking), and clinical (systemic hypertension) variables were analyzed. The data set was assessed through single-variable and multivariate analysis. The two factors independently associated with heart disease were age - presence of heart disease being three times higher in patients over 60 years of age (odds ratio, OR: 2.89; confidence interval of 95%: 1.09-7.61) - and family history of Chagas heart disease (OR: 2.833, CI 95%: 1.11-7.23). Systemic hypertension and gender did not prove to hold any association with heart disease, as neither did skin color, but this variable showed low statistical power due to reduced sample size.

Molecular design of the Calphabeta interface favors specific pairing of introduced TCRalphabeta in human T cells.

A promising approach to adoptive transfer therapy of tumors is to reprogram autologous T lymphocytes by TCR gene transfer of defined Ag specificity. An obstacle, however, is the undesired pairing of introduced TCRalpha- and TCRbeta-chains with the endogenous TCR chains. These events vary depending on the individual endogenous TCR and they not only may reduce the levels of cell surface-introduced TCR but also may generate hybrid TCR with unknown Ag specificities. We show that such hybrid heterodimers can be generated even by the pairing of human and mouse TCRalpha- and TCRbeta-chains. To overcome this hurdle, we have identified a pair of amino acid residues in the crystal structure of a TCR that lie at the interface of associated TCR Calpha and Cbeta domains and are related to each other by both a complementary steric interaction analogous to a "knob-into-hole" configuration and the electrostatic environment. We mutated the two residues so as to invert the sense of this interaction analogous to a charged "hole-into-knob" configuration. We show that this inversion in the CalphaCbeta interface promotes selective assembly of the introduced TCR while preserving its specificity and avidity for Ag ligand. Noteworthily, this TCR modification was equally efficient on both a Mu and a Hu TCR. Our data suggest that this approach is generally applicable to TCR independently of their Ag specificity and affinity, subset distribution, and species of origin. Thus, this strategy may optimize TCR gene transfer to efficiently and safely reprogram random T cells into tumor-reactive T cells.

The depuration dynamics of oysters (Crassostrea gigas) artificially contaminated with hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus

Within the country of Brazil, Santa Catarina is a major shellfish producer. Detection of viral contamination is an important step to ensure production quality and consumer safety during this process. In this study, we used a depuration system and ultraviolet (UV) disinfection to eliminate viral pathogens from artificially infected oysters and analysed the results. Specifically, the oysters were contaminated with hepatitis A virus (HAV) or human adenovirus type 5 (HAdV5). After viral infection, the oysters were placed into a depuration tank and harvested after 48, 72 and 96 h. After sampling, various oyster tissues were dissected and homogenised and the viruses were eluted with alkaline conditions and precipitated with polyethylene glycol. The oyster samples were evaluated by cell culture methods, as well as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and quantitative-PCR. Moreover, at the end of the depuration period, the disinfected seawater was collected and analysed by PCR. The molecular assays showed that the HAdV5 genome was present in all of the depuration time samples, while the HAV genome was undetectable after 72 h of depuration. However, viral viability tests (integrated cell culture-PCR and immunofluorescence assay) indicated that both viruses were inactivated with 96 h of seawater recirculation. In conclusion, after 96 h of UV treatment, the depuration system studied in this work purified oysters that were artificially contaminated with HAdV5 and HAV.

Genetic compatibility affects division of labor in the argentine ant linepithema humile.

Division of labor is central to the organization of insect societies. Within-colony comparisons between subfamilies of workers (patrilines or matrilines) revealed genetic effects on division of labor in many social insect species. Although this has been taken as evidence for additive genetic effects on division of labor, it has never been experimentally tested. To determine the relative roles of additive and nonadditive genetic effects (e.g., genetic compatibility, epistasis, and parent-of-origin imprinting effects) on worker behavior, we performed controlled crosses using the Argentine ant Linepithema humile. Three of the measured behaviors (the efficiency to collect pupae, the foraging propensity, and the distance between non-brood-tenders and brood) were affected by the maternal genetic background and the two others (the efficiency to feed larvae and the distance between brood-tenders and brood) by the paternal genetic background. Moreover, there were significant interactions between the maternal and paternal genetic backgrounds for three of the five behaviors. These results are most consistent with parent-of-origin and genetic compatibility effects on division of labor. The finding of nonadditive genetic effects is in strong contrast with the current view and has important consequences for our understanding of division of labor in insect societies.

Association of socioeconomic status with overall and cause specific mortality in the republic of seychelles : results from a cohort study in the african region

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is consistently associated with higher mortality in high income countries. Only few studies have assessed this association in low and middle income countries, mainly because of sparse reliable mortality data. This study explores SES differences in overall and cause-specific mortality in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. METHODS: All deaths have been medically certified over more than two decades. SES and other lifestyle-related risk factors were assessed in a total of 3246 participants from three independent population-based surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Vital status was ascertained using linkage with vital statistics. Occupational position was the indicator of SES used in this study and was assessed with the same questions in the three surveys. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years (range 0-23 years), 523 participants died (overall mortality rate 10.8 per 1000 person-years). The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (219 deaths) and cancer (142 deaths). Participants in the low SES group had a higher mortality risk for overall (HR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.24-2.62), CVD (HR = 1.95; 1.04-3.65) and non-cancer/non-CVD (HR = 2.14; 1.10-4.16) mortality compared to participants in the high SES group. Cancer mortality also tended to be patterned by SES (HR = 1.44; 0.76-2.75). Major lifestyle-related risk factors (smoking, heavy drinking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) explained a small proportion of the associations between low SES and all-cause, CVD, and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study assessing social inequalities in mortality in a country of the African region, low SES (as measured by occupational position) was strongly associated with overall, CVD and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. Our findings support the view that the burden of non-communicable diseases may disproportionally affect people with low SES in low and middle income countries.

Tuberculosis in migrant populations. A systematic review of the qualitative literature.

BACKGROUND The re-emergence of tuberculosis (TB) in low-incidence countries and its disproportionate burden on immigrants is a public health concern posing specific social and ethical challenges. This review explores perceptions, knowledge, attitudes and treatment adherence behaviour relating to TB and their social implications as reported in the qualitative literature. METHODS Systematic review in four electronic databases. Findings from thirty selected studies extracted, tabulated, compared and synthesized. FINDINGS TB was attributed to many non-exclusive causes including air-born transmission of bacteria, genetics, malnutrition, excessive work, irresponsible lifestyles, casual contact with infected persons or objects; and exposure to low temperatures, dirt, stress and witchcraft. Perceived as curable but potentially lethal and highly contagious, there was confusion around a condition surrounded by fears. A range of economic, legislative, cultural, social and health system barriers could delay treatment seeking. Fears of deportation and having contacts traced could prevent individuals from seeking medical assistance. Once on treatment, family support and "the personal touch" of health providers emerged as key factors facilitating adherence. The concept of latent infection was difficult to comprehend and while TB screening was often seen as a socially responsible act, it could be perceived as discriminatory. Immigration and the infectiousness of TB mutually reinforced each another exacerbating stigma. This was further aggravated by indirect costs such as losing a job, being evicted by a landlord or not being able to attend school. CONCLUSIONS Understanding immigrants' views of TB and the obstacles that they face when accessing the health system and adhering to a treatment programme-taking into consideration their previous experiences at countries of origin as well as the social, economic and legislative context in which they live at host countries- has an important role and should be considered in the design, evaluation and adaptation of programmes.

Results from a multicentre international registry of familial Mediterranean fever: impact of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease in children.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) is an autoinflammatory disease caused by mutations of the MEFV gene. We analyse the impact of ethnic, environmental and genetic factors on the severity of disease presentation in a large international registry. METHODS: Demographic, genetic and clinical data from validated paediatric FMF patients enrolled in the Eurofever registry were analysed. Three subgroups were considered: (i) patients living in the eastern Mediterranean countries; (ii) patients with an eastern Mediterranean ancestry living in western Europe; (iii) Caucasian patients living in western European countries. A score for disease severity at presentation was elaborated. RESULTS: Since November 2009, 346 FMF paediatric patients were enrolled in the Eurofever registry. The genetic and demographic features (ethnicity, age of onset, age at diagnosis) were similar among eastern Mediterranean patients whether they lived in their countries or western European countries. European patients had a lower frequency of the high penetrance M694V mutation and a significant delay of diagnosis (p<0.002). Patients living in eastern Mediterranean countries had a higher frequency of fever episodes/year and more frequent arthritis, pericarditis, chest pain, abdominal pain and vomiting compared to the other two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that the variables independently associated with severity of disease presentation were country of residence, presence of M694V mutation and positive family history. CONCLUSIONS: Eastern Mediterranean FMF patients have a milder disease phenotype once they migrate to Europe, reflecting the effect of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease.

Evolutionary history of almond tree domestication in the Mediterranean basin.

Genetic diversity of contemporary domesticated species is shaped by both natural and human-driven processes. However, until now, little is known about how domestication has imprinted the variation of fruit tree species. In this study, we reconstruct the recent evolutionary history of the domesticated almond tree, Prunus dulcis, around the Mediterranean basin, using a combination of nuclear and chloroplast microsatellites [i.e. simple sequence repeat (SSRs)] to investigate patterns of genetic diversity. Whereas conservative chloroplast SSRs show a widespread haplotype and rare locally distributed variants, nuclear SSRs show a pattern of isolation by distance with clines of diversity from the East to the West of the Mediterranean basin, while Bayesian genetic clustering reveals a substantial longitudinal genetic structure. Both kinds of markers thus support a single domestication event, in the eastern side of the Mediterranean basin. In addition, model-based estimation of the timing of genetic divergence among those clusters is estimated sometime during the Holocene, a result that is compatible with human-mediated dispersal of almond tree out of its centre of origin. Still, the detection of region-specific alleles suggests that gene flow from relictual wild preglacial populations (in North Africa) or from wild counterparts (in the Near East) could account for a fraction of the diversity observed.

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis is associated with reduced risk of incident tuberculosis in participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Co-trimoxazole reduces mortality in HIV-infected adults with tuberculosis (TB), and in vitro data suggest potential antimycobacterial activity of co-trimoxazole. We aimed to evaluate whether prophylaxis with co-trimoxazole is associated with a decreased risk of incident TB in Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants. We determined the incidence of TB per 1,000 person-years from January 1992 to December 2012. Rates were analyzed separately in participants with current or no previous antiretroviral treatment (ART) using Poisson regression adjusted for CD4 cell count, sex, region of origin, injection drug use, and age. A total of 13,431 cohort participants contributed 107,549 person-years of follow-up: 182 patients had incident TB-132 (73%) before and 50 (27%) after ART initiation. The multivariable incidence rate ratios for cumulative co-trimoxazole exposure per year for persons with no previous ART and current ART were 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.89) and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.0), respectively. Co-trimoxazole may prevent the development of TB among HIV-positive persons, especially among those with no previous ART.

Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease: Is there a shift towards onset at a younger age?

OBJECTIVES: Increasing numbers of paediatric and adolescent patients with Crohn disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are reported. To determine whether this observation is a consequence of a shift towards onset at a younger age, we analysed retrospective data from patients enrolled in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study (SIBDCS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The SIBDCS is a disease-based cohort in Switzerland, which collects retrospective and prospective data on a large sample of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Patients, diagnosed from 1980, were stratified according to diagnosis of CD and UC. Age at disease onset (age at first symptoms and age at diagnosis) was analysed in relation to calendar year of disease onset. Data were extracted from physician and patient questionnaires. Linear regressions of age at disease onset by calendar year of disease onset adjusted by sex, country of birth, and education were performed. RESULTS: Adjusted regression coefficients for CD and UC were significantly positive, that is, age at disease onset has increased with time. Male sex was associated with an increase in age at disease onset, and birth in Switzerland with a decrease. These associations were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The results from the SIBDCS do not support the hypothesis that disease onset of both CD and UC occur today at a younger age. On the contrary, our results show that there is a significant trend for age at disease onset occurring at an older age today as compared with recent decades. We conclude that the observation of increasing numbers of paediatric and adolescent patients with IBD is not caused by a trend towards disease onset at a younger age, but that this may rather be a consequence of the overall increasing incidence of these conditions.