Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

On commercial media bias

Within the spokes model of Chen and Riordan (2007) that allowsfor non-localized competition among arbitrary numbers of media outlets, we quantify the effect of concentration of ownership on qualityand bias of media content. A main result shows that too few commercial outlets, or better, too few separate owners of commercial outlets can lead to substantial bias in equilibrium. Increasing the number of outlets (commercial and non-commercial) tends to bring down this bias; but the strongest effect occurs when the number of owners is increased. Allowing for free entry provides lower bounds on fixed costs above which substantial commercial bias occurs in equilibrium.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, How to register -- and cut unwanted commercial telemarketing calls, January 2008

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: How to register -- and cut unwanted commercial telemarketing calls.

Impact of colonic cleansing on quality and diagnostic yield of colonoscopy: the European Panel of Appropriateness of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy European multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: The quality of colon cleansing is a major determinant of quality of colonoscopy. To our knowledge, the impact of bowel preparation on the quality of colonoscopy has not been assessed prospectively in a large multicenter study. Therefore, this study assessed the factors that determine colon-cleansing quality and the impact of cleansing quality on the technical performance and diagnostic yield of colonoscopy. METHODS: Twenty-one centers from 11 countries participated in this prospective observational study. Colon-cleansing quality was assessed on a 5-point scale and was categorized on 3 levels. The clinical indication for colonoscopy, diagnoses, and technical parameters related to colonoscopy were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 5832 patients were included in the study (48.7% men, mean age 57.6 [15.9] years). Cleansing quality was lower in elderly patients and in patients in the hospital. Procedures in poorly prepared patients were longer, more difficult, and more often incomplete. The detection of polyps of any size depended on cleansing quality: odds ratio (OR) 1.73: 95% confidence interval (CI)[1.28, 2.36] for intermediate-quality compared with low-quality preparation; and OR 1.46: 95% CI[1.11, 1.93] for high-quality compared with low-quality preparation. For polyps >10 mm in size, corresponding ORs were 1.0 for low-quality cleansing, OR 1.83: 95% CI[1.11, 3.05] for intermediate-quality cleansing, and OR 1.72: 95% CI[1.11, 2.67] for high-quality cleansing. Cancers were not detected less frequently in the case of poor preparation. CONCLUSIONS: Cleansing quality critically determines quality, difficulty, speed, and completeness of colonoscopy, and is lower in hospitalized patients and patients with higher levels of comorbid conditions. The proportion of patients who undergo polypectomy increases with higher cleansing quality, whereas colon cancer detection does not seem to critically depend on the quality of bowel preparation.

Iowa Commercial Banking, Strategic Plan, 2003

This report outlines the strategic plan for Iowa Alcoholic Beverages Division including, goals and mission.

Concentration and self-censorship in commercial media

Within a simple model of non-localized, Hotelling-type competitionamong arbitrary numbers of media outlets we characterize qualityand content of media under different ownership structures. Assumingadvertising-sponsored, profit-maximizing outlets, we show that (i) topicssensitive to advertisers can be underreported (self-censored) by alloutlets in the market, (ii) self-censorship increases with the concentrationof ownership, (iii) adding outlets, while keeping the number ofowners fixed, may even increase self-censorship; the latter result relieson consumers' most preferred outlets being potentially owned by thesame media companies. We argue that externalities resulting fromself-censorship could be empirically large.

Multicenter, Prospective Clinical Evaluation of Respiratory Samples from Subjects at Risk for Pneumocystis jirovecii Infection by Use of a Commercial Real-Time PCR Assay.

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) is a common opportunistic infection. Microscopic diagnosis, including diagnosis using the Merifluor-Pneumocystis direct fluorescent antigen (MP-DFA) test, has limitations. Real-time PCR may assist in diagnosis, but no commercially validated real-time PCR assay has been available to date. MycAssay Pneumocystis is a commercial assay that targets the P. jirovecii mitochondrial large subunit (analytical detection limit, ≤3.5 copies/μl of sample). A multicenter trial recruited 110 subjects: 54 with transplants (40 with lung transplants), 32 with nonmalignant conditions, 13 with leukemia, and 11 with solid tumors; 9 were HIV positive. A total of 110 respiratory samples (92% of which were bronchoalveolar lavage [BAL] specimens) were analyzed by PCR. Performance was characterized relative to investigator-determined clinical diagnosis of PCP (including local diagnostic tests), and PCR results were compared with MP-DFA test results for 83 subjects. Thirteen of 14 subjects with PCP and 9/96 without PCP (including 5 undergoing BAL surveillance after lung transplantation) had positive PCR results; sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively) were 93%, 91%, 59%, and 99%, respectively. Fourteen of 83 subjects for whom PCR and MP-DFA test results were available had PCP; PCR sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 93%, 90%, 65%, and 98%, respectively, and MP-DFA test sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 93%, 100%, 100%, and 98%. Of the 9 PCR-positive subjects without PCP, 1 later developed PCP. The PCR diagnostic assay compares well with clinical diagnosis using nonmolecular methods. Additional positive results compared with the MP-DFA test may reflect low-level infection or colonization.

Commercial Driver's License in a Nutshell, March 2009

Federal law requires uniform licensing of truck and bus drivers (CDL) in all states and the District of Columbia. Commercial Driver's License (CDL) testing and issuance began in Iowa November 1, 1990. A person applying for a license to operate a commercial motor vehicle must apply for a CDL.

Genetics of Parkinson's disease: the yield.

The discovery of genes implicated in familial forms of Parkinson's disease (PD) has provided new insights into the molecular events leading to neurodegeneration. Clinically, patients with genetically determined PD can be difficult to distinguish from those with sporadic PD. Monogenic causes include autosomal dominantly (SNCA, LRRK2, VPS35, EIF4G1) as well as recessively (PARK2, PINK1, DJ-1) inherited mutations. Additional recessive forms of parkinsonism present with atypical signs, including very early disease onset, dystonia, dementia and pyramidal signs. New techniques in the search for phenotype-associated genes (next-generation sequencing, genome-wide association studies) have expanded the spectrum of both monogenic PD and variants that alter risk to develop PD. Examples of risk genes include the two lysosomal enzyme coding genes GBA and SMPD1, which are associated with a 5-fold and 9-fold increased risk of PD, respectively. It is hoped that further knowledge of the genetic makeup of PD will allow designing treatments that alter the course of the disease.

Managing Soybean for High Yield, 2007

Producers continually strive for high yielding soybeans. The state-wide average yield for Iowa is now more than 50 bu./acre. The “yield plateau” reported by many producers does not exist, and is a perception largely brought on by misuse of an oversimplified management system. High yielding soybeans are achieved through improved and targeted management decisions. Improved agronomic decisions for soybeans are critical since soybean is very sensitive to stresses that influence soybean growth, development and yield.