Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change

Floods are a major threat to human existence and historically have both caused the collapse of civilizations and forced the emergence of new cultures. The physical processes of flooding are complex. Increased population, climate variability, change in catchment and channel management, modified landuse and land cover, and natural change of floodplains and river channels all lead to changes in flood dynamics, and as a direct or indirect consequence, social welfare of humans. Section 5.16.1 explores the risks and benefits brought about by floods and reviews the responses of floods and floodplains to climate and landuse change. Section 5.08.2 reviews the existing modeling tools, and the top–down and bottom–up modeling frameworks that are used to assess impacts on future floods. Section 5.08.3 discusses changing flood risk and socioeconomic vulnerability based on current trends in emerging or developing countries and presents an alternative paradigm as a pathway to resilience. Section 5.08.4 concludes the chapter by stating a portfolio of integrated concepts, measures, and avant-garde thinking that would be required to sustainably manage future flood risk.

Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet evolution during the Cenozoic Era

The Antarctic Peninsula region is currently undergoing rapid environmental change, resulting in the thinning, acceleration and recession of glaciers and the sequential collapse of ice shelves. It is important to view these changes in the context of long-term palaeoenvironmental complexity and to understand the key processes controlling ice sheet growth and recession. In addition, numerical ice sheet models require detailed geological data for tuning and testing. Therefore, this paper systematically and holistically reviews published geological evidence for Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet variability for each key locality throughout the Cenozoic, and brings together the prevailing consensus of the extent, character and behaviour of the glaciations of the Antarctic Peninsula region. Major contributions include a downloadable database of 186 terrestrial and marine calibrated dates; an original reconstruction of the LGM ice sheet; and a new series of isochrones detailing ice sheet retreat following the LGM. Glaciation of Antarctica was initiated around the Eocene/Oligocene transition in East Antarctica. Palaeogene records of Antarctic Peninsula glaciation are primarily restricted to King George Island, where glacigenic sediments provide a record of early East Antarctic glaciations, but with modification of far-travelled erratics by local South Shetland Island ice caps. Evidence for Neogene glaciation is derived primarily from King George Island and James Ross Island, where glaciovolcanic strata indicate that ice thicknesses reached 500–850 m during glacials. This suggests that the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet draped, rather than drowned, the topography. Marine geophysical investigations indicate multiple ice sheet advances during this time. Seismic profiling of continental shelf-slope deposits indicates up to ten large advances of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet during the Early Pleistocene, when the ice sheet was dominated by 40 kyr cycles. Glacials became more pronounced, reaching the continental shelf edge, and of longer duration during the Middle Pleistocene. During the Late Pleistocene, repeated glacials reached the shelf edge, but ice shelves inhibited iceberg rafting. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred at 18 ka BP, after which transitional glaciomarine sediments on the continental shelf indicate ice-sheet retreat. The continental shelf contains large bathymetric troughs, which were repeatedly occupied by large ice streams during Pleistocene glaciations. Retreat after the LGM was episodic in the Weddell Sea, with multiple readvances and changes in ice-flow direction, but rapid in the Bellingshausen Sea. The late Holocene Epoch was characterised by repeated fluctuations in palaeoenvironmental conditions, with associated glacial readvances. However, this has been subsumed by rapid warming and ice-shelf collapse during the twentieth century.

Araucaria forest dynamics in relation to fire frequency in southern Brazil based on fossil and modern pollen dataf

To elucidate the relationship between forest dynamics and fire frequency pollen percentages and charcoal amounts from a 120 cm long peat core and from samples of modern pollen rain were collected along a transect. The study site in southern Brazil is characterized by a species-rich mosaic of grassland-Araucaria forest. It is of crucial importance for management strategies for conservation to understand the development and maintenance of these vegetation mosaics including their sharp forest-grassland boundaries. During the late Holocene, considerable changes occurred in the area. From Anno Domini (AD) 1360 to 1410, the area was dominated by Campos (grassland) vegetation and fire was very common. From AD 1410 to 1500, Araucaria forest expanded and fire was less frequent. From AD 1500 to 1580, Campos grassland spread and the Araucaria forest ceased its development, apparently due to the increase of fire. From AD 1580 to 1935, after a decrease in fire frequency, Araucaria forest expanded again. From AD 1935 to the present, the Araucaria forest expanded while the Campos area decreased. Fire was very rare in this period. The results indicate a strong interaction of forest expansion, forming a mosaic of Campos and Araucaria forest, and the frequency of fire during the past 600 years. A possible collapse of the indigenous population following the post-Colombian colonization in southern Brazil after about AD 1550 may have caused a great reduction of fire frequency. The introduction of cattle (probably after AD 1780) and the resulting decrease of fire frequency might be the reason for forest expansion. Fire is probably the most important factor controlling the dynamics of the forest-grassland mosaics and the formation of sharp borders between these two vegetation types. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A gestão do processo de negociação complexa: uma avaliação da 5ª Conferência Ministerial da Organização Mundial do Comércio - OMC, em Cancun, México

Pretende-se no presente trabalho avaliar a gestão do processo de negociação complexa da 5ª Conferência Ministerial da Organização Mundial do Comércio em Cancún, ocorrida entre os dias 10 e 14 de setembro de 2003, no México, apontando os problemas e questões que resultaram no colapso de um possível acordo. O futuro da OMC é incerto e mudanças traumáticas sofridas por muitos países que vivem sob as regras da OMC indicam que alguma coisa na OMC terá que mudar, principalmente nos processos de negociação complexa, de forma que a integridade da organização não seja comprometida. Buscou-se respostas na análise e avaliação da gestão do processo de negociação, estudando e pesquisando os conceitos de barganha posicional, detalhando o processo de negociação baseado em princípios, explorando em profundidade o estado da arte para gestão de conversas difíceis. Dissecando a questão dos conflitos e das coalizões, mostrando a dificuldade existente na resolução de disputas públicas e no uso de instrumentos para quebrar o impasse nas negociações buscou-se estabelecer o instrumental teórico que possibilitasse aprofundar o diagnóstico da situação atual na OMC. Como recomendação explorou-se a avaliação de conflitos, com base na eficiência - teoria dos jogos-, justiça e na eqüidade, a melhor forma de negociação baseada em princípios, de gestão de público demandante, no diálogo dos multistakeholders, a importância das conversas informais paralelas, o ambiente da complexidade e a visão ampla que proporciona o enfoque do funcionamento de sistemas decisórios autopoiéticos.

Monetary equilibrium with decentralized trade and learning

This paper analyzes the stability of monetary regimes in an economy where fiat money is endogenously created by the government, information about its value is imperfect, and learning is decentralized. We show that monetary stability depends crucially on the speed of information transmission in the economy. Our model generates a dynamic on the acceptability of fiat money that resembles historical accounts of the rise and eventual collapse of overissued paper money. It also provides an explanation of the fact that, despite its obvious advantages, the widespread use of fiat money is only a recent development.

Optimal exchange rate policy, optimal incomplete taxation and business cycles

Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recur- rent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is usually followed by an economic downturn (boom). This essay explains why a benevolent government should pursue Þscal and monetary policies that lead to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. It is shown that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average de- valuation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. A currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).

A indústria de fundos de investimento no Brasil : um estudo teórico e empírico sobre a relação fiduciária entre o administrador-gestor e os respectivos cotistas de fundos de investimentos

De acordo com dados de 07.10.2014 da Associação Brasileira das Entidades dos Mercados Financeiro e de Capitais – ANBIMA, no acumulado em 12 meses, entre aplicações, resgates e captações, a indústria de fundos movimentou mais de 11 bilhões de reais no Brasil. É um volume financeiro considerável, fazendo dos fundos de investimento importantes instrumentos de captação de poupança e de direcionamento de recursos para os mais diversos projetos de financiamento da economia. Além disso, as quebras de determinados conglomerados financeiros no Brasil nos últimos anos envolvendo fundos administrados e geridos por sociedades pertencentes a esses conglomerados colocou em evidência a importância de regras e estudos direcionados à relação entre o administrador-gestor e o cotista de fundos de investimento. De fato, pesquisa conduzida ao longo dos anos de 2013 e 2014 demonstrou que acadêmicos, reguladores e demais participantes do mercado de valores mobiliários possuem poucos estudos que possam assisti-los na solução de problemas relativos a essa relação, inclusive diante de situações envolvendo conflitos de interesses entre administradores-gestores e cotistas. Assim, diante da importância econômica dos fundos de investimento para o Brasil, da relevância dos direitos dos investidores dentro da indústria de fundos, e também em razão da escassez de estudos, este trabalho tem por finalidade realizar investigação teórica e empírica sobre a relação fiduciária entre o administrador, o gestor e os respectivos cotistas dos fundos de investimento. Dessa forma, o objetivo será identificar a origem, as características essenciais dessa relação, os riscos que ela pode trazer para o investidor e os deveres que ela impõe aos administradores e gestores. Para tanto, propõe-se avaliar a origem histórica da relação fiduciária e os fundamentos teóricos que a suportam aplicados aos fundos de investimento nos Estados Unidos e no Brasil. Com base nesse conhecimento teórico e sob o enfoque dos deveres fiduciários aplicáveis aos administradores e gestores, parte-se para a avaliação das normas de conduta contidas nas instruções da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), visando testar as características da relação fiduciária diante das regras da CVM. Por fim, realiza-se estudo sobre casos em que administradores e gestores foram condenados por quebra na relação fiduciária e por inobservância de deveres específicos embutidos nas normas de conduta avaliadas anteriormente. Com fundamento nos estudos teóricos e empíricos descritos, conclui-se que existem características essenciais na configuração de uma relação fiduciária entre o administrador-gestor e o cotista de fundos de investimento e que, uma vez formada essa relação, administradores e gestores obrigam-se a observar o cumprimento de deveres de diligência e de lealdade perante o cotista. Igualmente, ainda é possível afirmar que as normas da CVM de fato instituem a relação fiduciária entre o administrador-gestor e o cotista de fundos de investimento, bem como os deveres fiduciários conexos a essa relação.

Greve do voto: a política da antipolítica nas eleições municipais de 2004 em Fortaleza

This study discusses the use of communication strategies in the dispute for political hegemony in the contemporary society. In order to do so, one starts from the concept of politics in its broad sense, involving, besides parties and parliaments, the groups and organized social movements. The comprehension that the political activity, nowadays, involves the media, made part of this study be focused on the investigation of problems in this relationship. We analyzed, especially, the communication actions promoted by the Grupo Crítica Radical, in which participate, among others, Maria Luiza Fontenelle, former mayor of Fortaleza, and Rosa da Fonseca, former concillor. They left their old parties after a process of self-criticism concerning their incumbencies, partly influenced by the books of Robert Kurz about the collapse of capitalism . After this historical contextualization, one starts the analysis of the campaign Greve do Voto promoted by the Group during the municipal elections of 2004. The production of campaign material, the street drama, the small shows and the fact that the press covered the campaign are discussed starting from the theoretical formulations presented on this research, understanding, this way, the challenge of these groups to build an action against the hegemony allied to the universe of the mass media

Avaliação de concreto com adição de fibras de PET submetido a altas temperaturas

The concrete for centuries constituted an essential structural element in the construction industry due to its relative ease of forming, before the weather durability, low cost, its lower maintenance compared to other materials such as steel. However, when the concrete is exposed to high temperatures tends to lose its mechanical characteristics, and may even result in loss of section, which undermines the stability and mechanical strength of structural elements. The pathologies resulting from exposure to elevated temperatures ranging from cracks, pops up chipping explosives (spalling). Recently, the technology of concrete is closely related to the study of its microstructure. The use of fibers added to concrete has been revealed as a solution to increase the mechanical strength of the concrete, it acts directly on the distribution of efforts to act in the play within the microstructure. In this work we used recycled PET fibers embedded in concrete with 15x2mm fck = 30MPa, water/cement ratio of 0.46, in works made for verification of mechanical strength of this mixture submitted to high temperature. The specimens of concrete with addition of PET fibers were tested after exposure to temperatures: ambient (30ºC), 100°C, 200°C, 300°C, 400°C, 600°C and 900°C. It was found that the concrete loses significant strength when exposed to temperatures above 300°C, however the use of fiber PET may delay the risk of collapse of structures for the formation of a network of channels that facilitate the escape of vapor 'water, reducing the pore pressure inside the structural element

Aplicações da tomografia de ressonância magnética nuclear como método não-destrutivo para avaliar os efeitos de injúrias mecânicas em goiabas 'Paluma' e 'Pedro Sato'

Objetivou-se determinar o potencial do uso da tomografia de ressonância magnética, como método não-destrutivo, para avaliar os efeitos das injúrias mecânicas em goiabas. Foram utilizados frutos no estádio de maturação de vez das cultivares Paluma e Pedro Sato. Na injúria por impacto, os frutos foram deixados cair, em queda livre, de uma altura de 1,20 m, sofrendo dois impactos, em lados opostos de sua porção equatorial. Na injúria por compressão, os frutos foram submetidos a um peso de 29,4 N, por 15 minutos. Para a injúria por corte, foram efetuados dois cortes, no sentido longitudinal dos frutos, de exatamente 30 mm de comprimento por 2 mm de profundidade. Os frutos injuriados foram armazenados sob condições de ambiente (22 ± 2 °C e 40 %UR). Foram realizadas análises com tomógrafo de ressonância magnética Varian Inova de 2 Tesla. As imagens foram obtidas a partir da detecção dos prótons de hidrogênio (¹H). Para cada fruto, foram obtidos tomogramas simétricos a partir do centro do fruto. A tomografia de ressonância magnética nuclear mostrou-se uma ferramenta eficaz na detecção de injúrias internas de frutos. O estresse físico causado pelo impacto produziu um colapso interno nos lóculos desses frutos (internal bruising), levando à perda da integridade celular e a conseqüente liquefação dos tecidos placentários. A cultivar Pedro Sato mostrou uma suscetibilidade maior à injúria por impacto que a 'Paluma'. A injúria por compressão tornou-se mais evidente no pericarpo externo do fruto, de ambas as cultivares. A injúria por corte levou a lignificação dos tecidos no local injuriado e deformações superficiais devido à perda acentuada de matéria fresca no local da lesão, evidentes no sexto dia de avaliação.

Alterações nos teores nutricionais foliares de bananeira 'prata-anã' adubada com composto orgânico em cinco ciclos de produção

O presente trabalho objetivou avaliar o estado nutricional da bananeira-'Prata-anã' durante cinco ciclos de cultivo com adubação orgânica, no município de Botucatu-SP. As plantas foram adubadas com composto orgânico produzido a partir de serragem de madeira e esterco bovino, em que os tratamentos foram constituídos de doses desse composto (0; 98,5; 197,0; 290,5 e 394,0 g de K2O/planta). Empregou-se delineamento experimental em blocos casualizados, com cinco tratamentos e cinco repetições. No florescimento das plantas em cada ciclo, foram retiradas amostras foliares de duas plantas por parcela para serem analisados os teores de nitrogênio, fósforo, potássio, cálcio, magnésio, enxofre, boro, cobre, ferro, manganês e zinco. A maior parte dos macronutrientes presentes nas folhas não foi influenciada pelo incremento de doses de composto orgânico. No decorrer dos ciclos avaliados, os teores foliares de nitrogênio, fósforo, potássio, enxofre, boro, ferro e manganês diminuíram, enquanto o cálcio e o magnésio se acumularam nas plantas. Os teores de potássio estavam abaixo dos padrões para a cultura no Estado de São Paulo, em todos os anos avaliados, mesmo assim as plantas não apresentaram sintomas de deficiência ou queda de produção, inferindo-se que a faixa considerada como adequada para a cultivar pode ser inferior aos padrões atualmente adotados.

An Intelligent System for Petroleum Well Drilling Cutting Analysis

Cutting analysis is a important and crucial task task to detect and prevent problems during the petroleum well drilling process. Several studies have been developed for drilling inspection, but none of them takes care about analysing the generated cutting at the vibrating shale shakers. Here we proposed a system to analyse the cutting's concentration at the vibrating shale shakers, which can indicate problems during the petroleum well drilling process, such that the collapse of the well borehole walls. Cutting's images are acquired and sent to the data analysis module, which has as the main goal to extract features and to classify frames according to one of three previously classes of cutting's volume. A collection of supervised classifiers were applied in order to allow comparisons about their accuracy and efficiency. We used the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF), Artificial Neural Network using Multi layer Perceptrons (ANN-MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and a Bayesian Classifier (BC) for this task. The first one outperformed all the remaining classifiers. Recall that we are also the first to introduce the OPF classifier in this field of knowledge. Very good results show the robustness of the proposed system, which can be also integrated with other commonly system (Mud-Logging) in order to improve the last one's efficiency.

Comparação da cifose torácica e capacidade funcional de mulheres idosas com e sem osteoporose

A diminuição da densidade mineral óssea das vértebras, própria do processo de envelhecimento e que pode ser agravada pela osteoporose, determina uma diminuição da região anterior dos corpos vertebrais, resultando em compressão e colapso dessas vértebras, com maior estreitamento dos discos e espaços intervertebrais. Essas novas condições interferem no funcionamento normal de órgãos e sistemas do organismo. O objetivo foi avaliar o grau de cifose torácica e a capacidade funcional de mulheres idosas com e sem osteoporose. Foram avaliadas 30 idosas ativas fisicamente, sendo 20 sem osteoporose ( GSO: 65,1± 4,67 anos) e 10 idosas com osteoporose (GCO: 68,6± 6,46anos). Foram avaliados a medida da cifose torácica, teste de caminhada de seis minutos (TC6'), Timed Up and go (TUG) e força dos músculos respiratórios (PImáx e PEmáx). Os dados obtidos foram analisados utilizando o teste t de Student. O nível de significância utilizado foi de 5% (α£ 0,05). Houve diferença significativa entre os grupos sem (GSO) e com osteoporose (GCO) somente no TC6'(GSO: 426,63±46,36 m; GCO: 392,64±36,68 m , α =0,02). As outras variáveis analisadas não apresentaram diferença significativa (Cifose torácica: α = 0,17; TUG: α =0,49; PImax: α =0,45; PEmax: α =0,19). A osteoporose não influenciou o grau de cifose torácica, a força dos músculos respiratórios e mobilidade das idosas. Entretanto, o desempenho no TC6' foi influenciado negativamente pela osteoporose.

Conservação dos invertebrados em área de proteção ambiental litorânea no nordeste do Brasil: contribuições da educação ambiental para a sustentabilidade

Today's society is in a real collapse of an environmental nature. The populations are lost due to a dream of development without thinking of the consequences that said development can bring to human populations. Thus, it is necessary that strategies be developed for the purpose of protecting the flora and fauna that is at risk from suffering the pressure to achieve this development. Thus important issues involving the need to conserve nature and the creation of protected areas as these strategies are increasingly being developed in research, whether in the biological and / or social. In this sense, the aim of this research through environmental perception social actors for the formation of significant elements for understanding the relationship between man and nature, and from there to provide actions for sensitization. As well as changing attitudes towards environmental issues, to thereby provide analysis based on Environmental Education in order to provide the production of environmental knowledge as a tool that provides value shift. This area of research was to study the Environmental Protection Area Jenipabu - APA Jenipabu, located in northeastern Brazil. Where, from the environmental perception of students from schools within and around this Nature Conservation Unit notes were made regarding the value and meaning given by students, and how this, the feeling of belonging to these groups. This dissertation is composed of two chapters, the first is titled Environmental perception and feeling of belonging in the area of environmental protection in coastal RN - Brazil, where it makes a diagnosis of how these groups understands and realizes the Unity of Nature Conservation. The second, which is titled Construction of environmental knowledge and conservation of invertebrates in the Environmental Protection Area in the northeast coast of Brazil, specifically developed in the school from within the APA Jenipabu, in order to promote a sense of belonging for those students who become multipliers, in order to realize the importance and necessity of having this unit for Nature Conservation. Looking to the degree of importance of environmental education as a tool to raise awareness on conservation of invertebrates and is all the fauna and flora exists, whether in a conservation of nature or not