Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Effect of multidimensional lifestyle intervention on fitness and adiposity in predominantly migrant preschool children (Ballabeina): cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To test the effect of a multidimensional lifestyle intervention on aerobic fitness and adiposity in predominantly migrant preschool children. DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled single blinded trial (Ballabeina study) over one school year; randomisation was performed after stratification for linguistic region. SETTING: 40 preschool classes in areas with a high migrant population in the German and French speaking regions of Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: 652 of the 727 preschool children had informed consent and were present for baseline measures (mean age 5.1 years (SD 0.7), 72% migrants of multicultural origins). No children withdrew, but 26 moved away. INTERVENTION: The multidimensional culturally tailored lifestyle intervention included a physical activity programme, lessons on nutrition, media use (use of television and computers), and sleep and adaptation of the built environment of the preschool class. It lasted from August 2008 to June 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run test) and body mass index (BMI). Secondary outcomes included motor agility, balance, percentage body fat, waist circumference, physical activity, eating habits, media use, sleep, psychological health, and cognitive abilities. RESULTS: Compared with controls, children in the intervention group had an increase in aerobic fitness at the end of the intervention (adjusted mean difference: 0.32 stages (95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.57; P=0.01) but no difference in BMI (-0.07 kg/m(2), -0.19 to 0.06; P=0.31). Relative to controls, children in the intervention group had beneficial effects in motor agility (-0.54 s, -0.90 to -0.17; P=0.004), percentage body fat (-1.1%, -2.0 to -0.2; P=0.02), and waist circumference (-1.0 cm, -1.6 to -0.4; P=0.001). There were also significant benefits in the intervention group in reported physical activity, media use, and eating habits, but not in the remaining secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: A multidimensional intervention increased aerobic fitness and reduced body fat but not BMI in predominantly migrant preschool children.

Biological Sampling and Physical Habitat Assessment Standard Operating Procedure for Iowa Wadeable Streams and Rivers, July 24, 2015

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources uses benthic macroinvertebrate and fish sampling data to assess stream biological condition and the support status of designated aquatic life uses (Wilton 2004; IDNR 2013). Stream physical habitat data assist with the interpretation of biological sampling results by quantifying important physical characteristics that influence a stream’s ability to support a healthy aquatic community (Heitke et al., 2006; Rowe et al. 2009; Sindt et al., 2012). This document describes aquatic community sampling and physical habitat assessment procedures currently followed in the Iowa stream biological assessment program. Standardized biological sampling and physical habitat assessment procedures were first established following a pilot sampling study in 1994 (IDNR 1994a, 1994b). The procedure documents were last updated in 2001 (IDNR 2001a; 2001b). The biological sampling and physical habitat assessment procedures described below are evaluated on a continual basis. Revision of this working document will occur periodically to reflect additional changes.

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

Community Water Sampling Event

Summary of water monitoring conducted by the City of Bondurant and Bondurant-Farrar school students of sites in and around Bondurant.

Towards a universal sampling protocol for soil biotas in the humid tropics

This paper reviews the methods for the inventory of below-ground biotas in the humid tropics, to document the (hypothesized) loss of soil biodiversity associated with deforestation and agricultural intensification at forest margins. The biotas were grouped into eight categories, each of which corresponded to a major functional group considered important or essential to soil function. An accurate inventory of soil organisms can assist in ecosystem management and help sustain agricultural production. The advantages and disadvantages of transect-based and grid-based sampling methods are discussed, illustrated by published protocols ranging from the original "TSBF transect", through versions developed for the alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Project (ASB) to the final schemes (with variants) adopted by the Conservation and Sustainable Management of Below-ground Biodiversity Project (CSM-BGBD). Consideration is given to the place and importance of replication in below-ground biological sampling and it is argued that the new sampling protocols are inclusive, i.e. designed to sample all eight biotic groups in the same field exercise; spatially scaled, i.e. provide biodiversity data at site, locality, landscape and regional levels, and link the data to land use and land cover; and statistically robust, as shown by a partial randomization of plot locations for sampling.

Health consultation : Sub-Slab Gas and Air Sampling Data Alcoa – Davenport Works CERCLIS No. IAD005270160 Riverdale, Scott County, Iowa (2005)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Alcoa – Davenport Works Facility (Alcoa), and concerned citizens and community leaders of Riverdale, Iowa requested the Iowa Department of Public Health (IDPH) Hazardous Waste Site Health Assessment Program to evaluate the health impacts of exposures to volatile organic vapors detected within residences located immediately to the west of the Alcoa property. This health consultation addresses inhalation exposure to individuals that may have occupied the currently vacant residences in which the air sampling was completed.

Evolutionary and dispersal history of Eurasian house mice Mus musculus clarified by more extensive geographic sampling of mitochondrial DNA.

We examined the sequence variation of mitochondrial DNA control region and cytochrome b gene of the house mouse (Mus musculus sensu lato) drawn from ca. 200 localities, with 286 new samples drawn primarily from previously unsampled portions of their Eurasian distribution and with the objective of further clarifying evolutionary episodes of this species before and after the onset of human-mediated long-distance dispersals. Phylogenetic analysis of the expanded data detected five equally distinct clades, with geographic ranges of northern Eurasia (musculus, MUS), India and Southeast Asia (castaneus, CAS), Nepal (unspecified, NEP), western Europe (domesticus, DOM) and Yemen (gentilulus). Our results confirm previous suggestions of Southwestern Asia as the likely place of origin of M. musculus and the region of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India, specifically as the ancestral homeland of CAS. The divergence of the subspecies lineages and of internal sublineage differentiation within CAS were estimated to be 0.37-0.47 and 0.14-0.23 million years ago (mya), respectively, assuming a split of M. musculus and Mus spretus at 1.7 mya. Of the four CAS sublineages detected, only one extends to eastern parts of India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, South China, Northeast China, Primorye, Sakhalin and Japan, implying a dramatic range expansion of CAS out of its homeland during an evolutionary short time, perhaps associated with the spread of agricultural practices. Multiple and non-coincident eastward dispersal events of MUS sublineages to distant geographic areas, such as northern China, Russia and Korea, are inferred, with the possibility of several different routes.

Bioavailability of sinking organic matter in the Blanes canyon and the adjacent open slope (NW Mediterranean Sea)

Submarine canyons are sites of intense energy and material exchange between the shelf and the deep adjacent basins. To test the hypothesis that active submarine canyons represent preferential conduits of available food for the deep-sea benthos, two mooring lines were deployed at 1200 m depth from November 2008 to November 2009 inside the Blanes canyon and on the adjacent open slope (Catalan Margin, NW Mediterranean Sea). We investigated the fluxes, biochemical composition and food quality of sinking organic carbon (OC). OC fluxes in the canyon and the open slope varied among sampling periods, though not onsistently in the two sites. In particular, while in the open slope the highest OC fluxes were observed in August 2009, in the canyon the highest OC fluxes occurred in AprilMay 2009. For almost the entire study period, the OC fluxes in the canyon were significantly higher than those in the open slope, whereas OC contents of sinking particles collected in the open slope were consistently higher than those in the canyon. This result confirms that submarine canyons are effective conveyors of OC to the deep sea. Particles transferred to the deep sea floor through the canyons are predominantly of inorganic origin, significantly higher than that reaching the open slope at a similar water depth. Using multivariate statistical tests, two major clusters of sampling periods were identified: one in the canyon that grouped trap samples collected in December 2008, oncurrently with the occurrence of a major storm at the sea surface, and associated with increased fluxes of nutritionally available particles from the upper shelf. Another cluster grouped samples from both the canyon and the open slope collected in March 2009, concurrently with the occurrence of the seasonal phytoplankton bloom at the sea surface, and associated with increased fluxes of total phytopigments. Our results confirm the key ecological role of submarine canyons for the functioning of deep-sea ecosystems, and highlight the importance of canyons in linking episodic storms and primary production occurring at the sea surface to the deep sea floor.

Cluster de alta disponibilidad sobre plataforma GNU/LINUX (VERITAS)

En este proyecto presentaremos soluciones sobre cómo poder montar una aplicación empresarial sobre un cluster de alta disponibilidad en plataforma GNU/LINUX.

Prediction of soil orders with high spatial resolution: response of different classifiers to sampling density

The objective of this work was to evaluate sampling density on the prediction accuracy of soil orders, with high spatial resolution, in a viticultural zone of Serra Gaúcha, Southern Brazil. A digital elevation model (DEM), a cartographic base, a conventional soil map, and the Idrisi software were used. Seven predictor variables were calculated and read along with soil classes in randomly distributed points, with sampling densities of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 4 points per hectare. Data were used to train a decision tree (Gini) and three artificial neural networks: adaptive resonance theory, fuzzy ARTMap; self‑organizing map, SOM; and multi‑layer perceptron, MLP. Estimated maps were compared with the conventional soil map to calculate omission and commission errors, overall accuracy, and quantity and allocation disagreement. The decision tree was less sensitive to sampling density and had the highest accuracy and consistence. The SOM was the less sensitive and most consistent network. The MLP had a critical minimum and showed high inconsistency, whereas fuzzy ARTMap was more sensitive and less accurate. Results indicate that sampling densities used in conventional soil surveys can serve as a reference to predict soil orders in Serra Gaúcha.

Comparison of randomized branch sampling with and without replacement at the first stage

Abstract