Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queelsland

Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0)

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 decrease stomatal conductance of plants and thus suppress canopy transpiration. The climate response to this CO2-physiological forcing is investigated using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 coupled to Community Land Model version 3.0. In response to the physiological effect of doubling CO2, simulations show a decrease in canopy transpiration of 8%, a mean warming of 0.1K over the land surface, and negligible changes in the hydrological cycle. These climate responses are much smaller than what were found in previous modeling studies. This is largely a result of unrealistic partitioning of evapotranspiration in our model control simulation with a greatly underestimated contribution from canopy transpiration and overestimated contributions from canopy and soil evaporation. This study highlights the importance of a realistic simulation of the hydrological cycle, especially the individual components of evapotranspiration, in reducing the uncertainty in our estimation of climatic response to CO2-physiological forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, and G.Ban-Weiss (2009), Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0).

Development and Accreditation of an Applied Climate Education Unit for Sustainable Land Use in Australia

In recent years, there have been significant developments in climate science relevant to agriculture and natural resource management. Assessing impacts of climate variability and use of seasonal climate forecasts have become increasingly important elements in the management "toolkit" for many Australian farmers. Consideration of climate change further increases the need for improved management strategies. While climate risk extension activities have kept pace with advances in climate science, a national review of the Vocational Education and Training system in Australia in relation to "weather and climate" showed that these topics were "poorly represented" at the management level in the Australian Qualifications Framework, and needed increased emphasis. Consequently, a new Unit of Competency concerning management of climatic risk was developed and accredited to address this deficiency. The objective of the unit was to build knowledge and skills for better management of climate variability via the elements of surveying climatic and enterprise data; analysing climatic risks and opportunities; and developing climatic risk management strategies. This paper describes establishment of a new unit for vocational education that is designed to harness recent developments in applied climate science for better management of Australia's highly variable climate. The main benefits of the new unit of competency, "Developing climatic risk management strategies,"were seen as improving decisions in climate and agriculture, and reducing climate risk exposure to enhance sustainable agriculture. The educational unit is now within the scope of agricultural colleges, universities, and registered training organisations as an accredited unit.

Effect of irrigation amounts applied with subsurface drip irrigation on corn evapotranspiration, yield, water use efficiency, and dry matter production in a semiarid climate

Quantifying the local crop response to irrigation is important for establishing adequate irrigation management strategies. This study evaluated the effect of irrigation applied with subsurface drip irrigation on field corn (Zea mays L.) evapotranspiration (ETc), yield, water use efficiencies (WUE = yield/ETc, and IWUE = yield/irrigation), and dry matter production in the semiarid climate of west central Nebraska. Eight treatments were imposed with irrigation amounts ranging from 53 to 356 mm in 2005 and from 22 to 226 mm in 2006. A soil water balance approach (based on FAO-56) was used to estimate daily soil water and ETc. Treatments resulted in seasonal ETc of 580-663 mm and 466-656 mm in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Yields among treatments differed by as much as 22% in 2005 and 52% in 2006. In both seasons, irrigation significantly affected yields, which increased with irrigation up to a point where irrigation became excessive. Distinct relationships were obtained each season. Yields increased linearly with seasonal ETc (R 2 = 0.89) and ETc/ETp (R 2 = 0.87) (ETp = ETc with no water stress). The yield response factor (ky), which indicates the relative reduction in yield to relative reduction in ETc, averaged 1.58 over the two seasons. WUE increased non-linearly with seasonal ETc and with yield. WUE was more sensitive to irrigation during the drier 2006 season, compared with 2005. Both seasons, IWUE decreased sharply with irrigation. Irrigation significantly affected dry matter production and partitioning into the different plant components (grain, cob, and stover). On average, the grain accounted for the majority of the above-ground plant dry mass (≈59%), followed by the stover (≈33%) and the cob (≈8%). The dry mass of the plant and that of each plant component tended to increase with seasonal ETc. The good relationships obtained in the study between crop performance indicators and seasonal ETc demonstrate that accurate estimates of ETc on a daily and seasonal basis can be valuable for making tactical in-season irrigation management decisions and for strategic irrigation planning and management.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Sorghum stay-green QTL individually reduce post-flowering drought-induced leaf senescence

Sorghum is an important source of food, feed, and biofuel, especially in the semi-arid tropics because this cereal is well adapted to harsh, drought-prone environments. Post-flowering drought adaptation in sorghum is associated with the stay-green phenotype. Alleles that contribute to this complex trait have been mapped to four major QTL, Stg1-Stg4, using a population derived from BTx642 and RTx7000. Near-isogenic RTx7000 lines containing BTx642 DNA spanning one or more of the four stay-green QTL were constructed. The size and location of BTx642 DNA regions in each RTx7000 NIL were analysed using 62 DNA markers spanning the four stay-green QTL. RTx7000 NILs were identified that contained BTx642 DNA completely or partially spanning Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, or Stg4. NILs were also identified that contained sub-portions of each QTL and various combinations of the four major stay-green QTL. Physiological analysis of four RTx7000 NILs containing only Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, or Stg4 showed that BTx642 alleles in each of these loci could contribute to the stay-green phenotype. RTx7000 NILs containing BTx642 DNA corresponding to Stg2 retained more green leaf area at maturity under terminal drought conditions than RTx7000 or the other RTx7000 NILs. Under post-anthesis water deficit, a trend for delayed onset of leaf senescence compared with RTx7000 was also exhibited by the Stg2, Stg3, and Stg4 NILs, while significantly lower rates of leaf senescence in relation to RTx7000 were displayed by all of the Stg NILs to varying degrees, but particularly by the Stg2 NIL. Greener leaves at anthesis relative to RTx7000, indicated by higher SPAD values, were exhibited by the Stg1 and Stg4 NILs. The RTx7000 NILs created in this study provide the starting point for in-depth analysis of stay-green physiology, interaction among stay-green QTL and map-based cloning of the genes that underlie this trait.

Climate change and human rights: Intellectual property challenges and opportunities

Mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change will require innovation and the development of new technologies. Intellectual property laws have a key part to play in the global transfer of climate technologies. However, failures to properly utilize flexibilities in intellectual property regimes or comply with technology transfer obligations under international climate change agreements calls for a human rights based analysis of climate technology transfer. Climate change is an unprecedented challenge and requires unprecedented strategies. Given the substantial impact of climate change on all of humanity and the ethical imperative to act, a complete rethink of traditional intellectual property approaches is warranted. This report proposes a series of intellectual property law policy options, through a human rights framework, aimed at promoting access to technologies to reduce the human suffering caused by climate change.

Key change: The role of the creative industries in climate change action

The role of the creative industries – arts and artists – in helping to drive the changes in laws and behaviours that are necessary to tackle climate change, while not superficially obvious, is a deep one. Arts and artists of all kinds, as cultural practitioners, have been closely entwined with social change and social control since time immemorial, in large part because they help shape our understanding of the world, framing ideas, prefiguring change, and opening hearts and minds to new ways of thinking. They have played a major role in campaigns for law reform on many issues, and climate change should be no exception. Indeed, with climate change increasingly being seen as a deeply cultural issue, and its solutions as cultural ones to do with changing the way we understand our world and our place in it, the role of cultural practitioners in helping to address it should also increasingly be seen as central. It is curious, then, how comparatively little artistic engagement with climate change has taken place, how little engagement with the arts the climate movement has attempted, and how little theoretical and critical analysis has been undertaken on the role of the creative arts in climate change action. Through a literature review and a series of interviews with individuals working in relevant fields in Australia, this study examines and evaluates the role of the creative industries in climate change action and places it in a historical and theoretical context. It covers examples of the kind of artistic and activist collaborations that have been undertaken, the different roles in communication, campaigning for law reform, and deep culture change that arts and artists can play, and the risks and dangers inherent in the involvement of artists, both to climate change action and to the artist. It concludes that, despite the risks, a deeper and more thoughtful engagement of and by the creative industries in climate action would not only be useful but is perhaps vital to the success of the endeavours.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Actionable climate knowledge: From analysis to synthesis

The traditional reductionist approach to science has a tendency to create 'islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance', with a much stronger focus on analysis of scientific inputs rather than synthesis of socially relevant outcomes. This might be the principal reason why intended end users of climate information generally fail to embrace what the climate science community has to offer. The translation of climate information into real-life action requires 3 essential components: salience (the perceived relevance of the information), credibility (the perceived technical quality of the information) and legitimacy (the perceived objectivity of the process by which the information is shared). We explore each of these components using 3 case studies focused on dryland cropping in Australia, India and Brazil. In regards to 'salience' we discuss the challenge for climate science to be 'policy-relevant', using Australian drought policy as an example. In a village in southern India 'credibility' was gained through engagement between scientists and risk managers with the aim of building social capital, achieved only at high cost to science institutions. Finally, in Brazil we found that 'legitimacy' is a fragile, yet renewable resource that needs to be part of the package for successful climate applications; legitimacy can be easily eroded but is difficult to recover. We conclude that climate risk management requires holistic solutions derived from cross-disciplinary and participatory, user-oriented research. Approaches that combine climate, agroecological and socioeconomic models provide the scientific capabilities for establishment of 'borderless' institutions without disciplinary constraints. Such institutions could provide the necessary support and flexibility to deliver the social benefits of climate science across diverse contexts. Our case studies show that this type of solution is already being applied, and suggest that the climate science community attempt to address existing institutional constraints, which still impede climate risk management.

Evaluating temperate species for the subtropics. 1. Annual ryegrasses

In the subtropics of Australia, irrigated temperate species are the key to reliable cool season feed on dairy farms. Persistence of perennial species is a major limitation to achieving reliable production from irrigated areas and yearly sowings of annual ryegrasses have replaced them as the most productive cool season forage production system in the subtropics. This series of experiments evaluated the yield, and resistance to rust damage, of commercially available cultivars and breeders' lines of annually sown ryegrasses (Lolium multiflorum, L. rigidum, L. x boucheanum and L perenne) in pure, nitrogen-fertilised swards under irrigation in the subtropics over a 22-year period. Barberia and Aristocrat 2 were the most adapted cultivars for subtropical conditions, producing high yields (119 and 114% of mean yield, respectively) and demonstrating the least rust damage. Newer selections from New Zealand, South African, United States of America and European breeding programs are performing better under subtropical conditions than older cultivars, particularly if a component of the selection process has been conducted in that environment. Cultivars such as Passerei Plus, Crusader, Hulk, Status and Warrior are examples of this process, producing between 105 and 115% of mean yield. Yields of annual ryegrass cultivars, which have been available or still are available for sale in Australia, ranged from 14-30 t/ha DM, depending on cultivar, site and seasonal conditions. Yields were lower at the site, which had inferior soil structure and drainage. Up to 50% of yield was produced in the 3 winter months. There was a trend towards improved yields and better tolerance of crown rust from experimental lines in the subtropics, as breeders strive for wider adaptation. Around 70% of the variation in total yield of annual ryegrass and 50 and 60% of the variation in winter and spring yield, respectively, were significantly explained by cultivar, site and climatic variables in autumn, winter and spring. While level of rust damage had no effect on total or seasonal yields, it affected the amount of green leaf available in spring. Under subtropical conditions, winter, spring and overall (autumn to mid-summer) temperatures influenced the- development of rust, which along with cultivar, accounted for 46% of the variation in rust damage. Cultivars showed a range of adaptation, with some performing well only under adverse conditions, some being well adapted to all conditions and some which performed well only under favoured conditions. Cultivars with high winter yields were most suited to subtropical conditions and included Aristocrat 2 (now released as CM 108), Barberia, Warrior, Crusader, Status, Passerei Plus and Hulk. Short growing season types such as Winter Star and T Rex performed well in winter but achieved lower total production, and long season cultivars such as Flanker rarely achieved their potential because of unfavourable conditions in late summer.

Needs for applied climate education in agriculture

This paper reports on a purposive survey study which aimed to identify needs for the development, delivery and evaluation of applied climate education for targeted groups, to improve knowledge and skills to better manage under variable climatic conditions. The survey sample consisted of 80 producers and other industry stakeholders in Australia (including representatives from consulting, agricultural extension and agricultural education sectors), with a 58% response rate to the survey. The survey included an assessment of (i) knowledge levels of the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperatures, and (ii) skill and ability in interpreting weather and climate parameters. Results showed that despite many of the respondents having more than 20 years experience in their industry, the only formal climate education or training undertaken by most was a 1-day workshop. Over 80% of the applied climate skills listed in the survey were regarded by respondents as essential or important, but only 42% of educators, 30% of consultants and 28% of producers rated themselves as competent in applying such skills. Essential skills were deemed as those that would enable respondents or their clients to be better prepared for the next extended wet or dry meteorological event, and improved capability in identifying and capitalising on key decision points from climate information and a seasonal climate outlook. The complex issue of forecast accuracy is a confounding obstacle for many in the application of climate information and forecasts in management. Addressing this problem by describing forecast 'limitations and skill' can help to overcome this problem. The survey also highlighted specific climatic tactical and strategic information collated from grazing, cropping and agribusiness enterprises, and showed the value of such information from a users perspective.

The role of aesthetic style in the visual communication of climate change

Public apathy on the issue of Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) is widespread, with more than half of surveyed Australians and Britons in denial of the phenomenon. While much is known about media influences and strategies such as message framing, there is little in the way of research on the impact of designed visual communication. This study builds knowledge and challenges assumptions by employing a relational approach between ACC visual communications, the professionals producing them, and the members of society that these communications are attempting to influence, contributing knowledge to the fields of graphic design, science communication and social science.