Impacts of climate change on vegetation distribution. No. 1: Climate change induced vegetation shifts in the palearctic region

Global average temperature has increased and precipitation pattern has altered over the past 100 years due to increases in greenhouse gases. These changes will alter numerous site factors and biochemical processes of vegetative communities such as nutrient and water availability, permafrost thawing, fire regime, biotic interactions and invasion. As a consequence, climate change is expected to alter distribution ranges of many species and communities as well as boundaries of biomes. Shifting of species and vegetation zones northwards and upwards in elevation has already been observed. Besides, several experiments have been conducted and simulations have been run all over the world in order to predict possible range shifts and ecological risks. In this paper, we review literature available in Web of Science on Europe and boreal Eurasia and give an overview of observed and predicted changes in vegetation in these regions. The main trends include advance of the tree line, reduction of the alpine vegetation belt, drought risk, forest diebacks, a shift from coniferous forests to deciduous forests and invasion. It is still controversial if species migration will be able to keep pace with climate change.

Munkahelyi tanulást befolyásoló tényezők – humán-számítógép együttműködés vizsgálata (Influencing factors of on-the-job learning – Analysis of human-computer collaboration)

A komplex, dinamikus, tudásalapú társadalomban nemcsak a tanulás formái, hanem a tanulás helyszínei is módosulnak, s a munkahely tanulásban betöltött szerepe felértékelődött. A munkahelyi környezet is számos átalakuláson esett át, az információs és kommunikációs technológiák (IKT) fejlődésével egyidejűleg lehetővé vált többek között a távmunka, jelentősen átformálva a munkavégzés és a munkahelyi interakciók módját. A kutatók arra keresték a választ kutatásukban, hogy a szervezeten belül milyen tényezők támogatják vagy gátolják a munkahelyi tanulást. A kutatás fő üzenete, hogy a tanulás keretrendszere, az egyéni képességek és az észlelt tanulási szituáció együttesen határozza meg a munkahelyi tanulást. A kutatók eredményüket kvalitatív kutatással feltárt három esettanulmányon keresztül ismertetik. ____ In a knowledge-based society not only the forms of learning have been changed but also the places of learning. The role of workplace in the learning process is becoming more important. Meantime, there has been a substantial change in the working conditions as the development in information and communication technologies (ICTs) makes it possible to telecommute transforming remarkably the way of working and the interactions at the workplace. The central question of the research is which intra-organizational factors support or hinder onthe- job learning. The main message of the research is that the learning framework, the individual cognitive competences and the perceived learning situation influence collectively on-the-job learning. Authors present the results of the qualitative research though three case studies.

Instructional change through collaboration and reflection

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of the Facilitator-Collaborative-Reflective Model, a strategic plan for changing teachers' practices and beliefs, on a selected group of middle school teachers. This model of staff development training was based on Corey's (1953) Cooperative-Action-Research Model and Anders and Richardson (1994) Collaborative-Reflective Model. It supports the notion that earning a teachers' commitment to change by focusing on collaboration, reflection and the normative-re-educative process aids in altering teachers' beliefs and practices especially crucial to the change process. The year-long training provided for reflection, inquiry, and learning that was useful to teachers as they pursued their goals with their students. The lead teacher, as a change agent and transformational leader, assisted in this commitment to change by improving the teachers' self-concepts as they slowly changed. The collaborative and receptive environment of the staff development fostered acceptance and stimulation of ideas.^ Given the collaborative nature of the change process, qualitative research methods were used in the investigation. The research process was based on Stufflebeam's Context, Input, Process and Product (CIPP) Evaluation Model (Madaus, Scriven & Stufflebeam, 1983). This allowed for all three factors of the staff development model to be evaluated. The case studies and focus group were effective in discerning any actual change in practices or beliefs.^ The findings of the qualitative evaluation, consisting of a baseline survey, case studies, questionnaire and modified focus group interviews, concluded that all of the teachers were strongly influenced by the intervention model which was the subject of this study. From this evaluation, three distinct indicators were looked at to determine if any change in the teachers' practices and beliefs emerged: (1) change in practice and belief, (2) reflective feedback and (3) collaborative reflection. These indicators were common throughout the teacher responses thus substantiating the infusion of the Facilitator-Collaborative-Reflective Model at the school level for effective staff development. ^

Factors that motivate RNs to return to school for the BSN and to remain in school to complete the degree

This exploratory descriptive study examined the factors that influence Registered Nurses (RNs) to return to school to pursue a Baccalaureate of Science in Nursing degree (BSN) and the factors that contribute to the decision to remain in school to complete the degree. Students (N = 226) enrolled in RN-BSN programs in three different universities in southeast Florida participated in the study by completing researcher developed questionnaires. The study group included 140 students who were newly enrolled in an RN-BSN program and 86 students who were preparing to graduate from an RN-BSN program. The instruments used in this study were two researcher developed questionnaires, the Corbett Nursing Educational Motivational Inventory - Form A (CNEMI-A), administered to the newly enrolled students, and the Corbett Nursing Educational Motivational Inventory - Form B (CNEMI-B), administered to the graduating students. The questionnaires included researcher-developed items in addition to items derived from a modified form of the Educational Participation Scale used by other researchers. Demographic data were also collected. Findings indicated that changes in health care, career goals, personal satisfaction, and flexible curriculum patterns are the major reasons why RNs return to school for the BSN. Less significant factors were social support, salary increase, and employer expectations. The factors considered most significant in the decision to remain in school to complete the degree were ranked in the following order: personal achievement, changes in health care, career change/advancement, enrollment options, faculty support, social support, and employer support. Implications for nurse educators related to the changing roles of RNs and the need to continue to assist RNs to adapt to new roles in health care. Recommendations for future research on RN-BSN nursing education included studies to identify the courses considered most useful by RN-BSN students as compared to courses considered repetitive of basic nursing programs. Studies were also recommended to examine the differences between the needs of RNs related to experience as an RN and recency of education. Additional studies were recommended to determine the feasibility of dual-enrollment ADN/BSN programs for last semester ADN students. ^

The impact of selected factors in nurses' attitudes toward bedside computers

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of selected factors on nurses' attitudes toward bedside computers. Bedside computer systems, also referred to as point-of-care systems, are clinical information systems that allow documentation of patient care and retrieval of data at the patient's bedside, or in close proximity to where care is delivered. The adoption of bedside computer systems appears to be increasing among U.S. institutions. As healthcare institutions undertake automation projects, they face many challenges associated with implementing large-scale change. ^ The study explored four factors and their relationship to nurses' attitudes toward bedside computers. A pre-bedside implementation survey of 184 staff nurses did not demonstrate a relationship between previous computer experience and nurses' attitudes toward bedside computers (p > .05). The data did not indicate a relationship between nurses' formal education and their attitude toward bedside computers (p > .05). The data did support a relationship between nurses' previous computer experience and their comfort in the use of bedside computers (p < .0005). Using a quasi-experimental control group design, attitudes of nurses were studied over an 18 month period. The Pre versus Post Survey data indicated that nurses who used bedside computers, the experimental group, had more positive attitudes than the nurses who did not use bedside computers, the control group (p < .0005). ^ The findings are significant to institutions implementing bedside computers, to the human resource development staff overseeing bedside computer training, and to the practice of clinical nursing. ^

Ecosystem responses to hydrologic change and mechanisms of nitrogen sequestration in seasonally flooded tree islands of the southern Everglades

In the Florida Everglades, tree islands are conspicuous heterogeneous elements in a complex wetland landscape. I investigated the effects of increased freshwater flow in southern Everglades seasonally flooded tree islands, and characterized biogeochemical interactions among tree islands and the marsh landscape matrix, specifically examining hydrologic flows of nitrogen (N), and landscape N sequestration capacity. I utilized ecological trajectories of key ecosystem variables to differentiate effects of increased sheetflow and hydroperiod. I utilized stable isotope analyses and nutrient content of tree island ecosystem components to test the hypothesis that key processes in tree island nitrogen cycling would favor ecosystem N sequestration. I combined estimates of tree island ecosystem N standing stocks and fluxes, soil and litter N transformation rates, and hydrologic inputs of N to quantify the net sequestration of N by a seasonally flooded tree island. ^ Results show that increased freshwater flow to seasonally flooded tree islands promoted ecosystem oligotrophy, whereas reduced flows allowed some plant species to cycle P less efficiently. As oligotrophy is a defining parameter of Everglades wetlands, and likely promotes belowground production and peat development, reintroducing freshwater flow from an upstream canal had a favorable effect on ecosystem dynamics of tree islands in the study area. Important factors influencing the stable isotopic composition of nitrogen and carbon were: (1) a contribution to soil N by soil invertebrates, animal excrement, and microbes, (2) a possible NO3 source from an upstream canal and an "open" ecosystem N cycle, and (3) greater availability of phosphorus in tree islands relative to the marsh landscape, suggesting that tree island N cycling favors N sequestration. Hydrologic sources of N were dominated by surface water loads of NO3- and NH 4+, and an important soil N transformation promoting the net loss of surface water DIN was nitrate immobilization associated with soils and surficial leaf litter. The net inorganic N sequestration capacity of a seasonally flooded tree island was 50 g yr-1 m -2. Thus, tree islands likely have an important function in landscape sequestration of inorganic N, and may reduce significant anthropogenic N loads to downstream coastal systems. ^

Examining the process of regime change in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization: The divide between rhetoric and reality

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a product of the Cold War through which its members organized their military forces for the purpose of collective defense against the common threat of Soviet-backed aggression. Employing the terminology of regime theory, the creation of NATO can be viewed as the introduction of an international security regime. Throughout the Cold War, NATO member states preserved their commitment to mutual defense while increasingly engaging in activities aimed at overcoming the division of Europe and promoting regional stability. The end of the Cold War has served as the catalyst for a new period of regime change as the Alliance introduced elements of a collective security regime by expanding its mandate to address new security challenges and reorganizing both its political and military organizational structures. ^ This research involves an interpretive analysis of NATO's evolution applying ideal theoretical constructs associated with distinct approaches to regime analysis. The process of regime change is investigated over several periods throughout the history of the Alliance in an effort to understand the Alliance's changing commitment to collective security. This research involves a review of regime theory literature, consisting of an examination of primary source documentation, including official documents and treaties, as well as a review of numerous secondary sources. This review is organized around a typology of power-based, organization-based, and norm-based approaches to regime analysis. This dissertation argues that the process of regime change within NATO is best understood by examining factors associated with multiple theoretical constructs. Relevant factors provide insights into the practice of collective security among NATO member states within Europe, while accounting for the inability of the NATO allies to build on the experience gained within Europe to play a more central role in operations outside of this region. This research contributes to a greater understanding of the nature of international regimes and the process of regime change, while offering recommendations aimed at increasing NATO's viability as a source of greater security and more meaningful international cooperation.^

The utility of an Integrated Qualitative /Quantitative Data Analytic Strategy (IQ -DAS) to evaluate the impact of youth development interventions to positive qualitative change in the life course

This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). ^ Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. ^ Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups. ^

Temporal changes in immigration stress, adaptation, and the factors contributing to the immigration -adaptation process in newly immigrant parents

The adaptation process to a new land can be an arduous transition for families who migrate from their countries in an attempt to evade negative life conditions. Family-based immigration has been the cornerstone of immigration policy for the U.S. However, there has been a relative lack of attention given in immigration studies to the impact of immigration particularly on parents. Furthermore, little is known about their adjustment to their post-migration circumstances, particularly the initial phase of migration, where the psychological impact of immigration tends to be concentrated. It is even rarer that investigators have addressed longitudinally the dynamic process of parents' adaptation to a new ecology, which can shed a great deal of light on its mechanisms. In this dissertation, changes over time in levels of stress, adjustment (affect balance and life satisfaction), and the factors (social support, economic hardship, and discrimination) contributing to stress and adjustment were examined in newly immigrant parents from Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Haiti, and the West Indies. Moderating effects of gender and country-of-origin were examined as well. This study also aimed to investigate to what extent the contributing factors impacted stress and adjustment, not only concurrently, but also over the first three years of post-migration. Analysis of variance results showed that both affect balance and social support increased whereas life satisfaction decreased over time. There was no significant change in stress, however. Both gender and group effects were also observed. Mothers experienced higher stress whereas fathers experienced higher discrimination. Among groups, Haitians appeared at the greatest risk in terms of stress, discrimination, and economic hardship. A structural equation modeling analysis showed that the relative importance of contributing factors changed over time in the process of immigrants' adaptation. Yet, social support emerged as a powerful protective factor in that its effects carried over time, and discrimination was a primary mediator through which other predictors were related to stress and adjustment. These findings shed light on the "hows and whys" of the immigration-adaptation process, by demonstrating the significance of specific conditions of life change to psychological outcomes as newly immigrant parents adapt to their post-migration ecology.

Factors influencing movements and foraging ecology of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in a dynamic subtropical coastal ecosystem

Top predators can have large effects on community and population dynamics but we still know relatively little about their roles in ecosystems and which biotic and abiotic factors potentially affect their behavioral patterns. Understanding the roles played by top predators is a pressing issue because many top predator populations around the world are declining rapidly yet we do not fully understand what the consequences of their potential extirpation could be for ecosystem structure and function. In addition, individual behavioral specialization is commonplace across many taxa, but studies of its prevalence, causes, and consequences in top predator populations are lacking. In this dissertation I investigated the movement, feeding patterns, and drivers and implications of individual specialization in an American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis ) population inhabiting a dynamic subtropical estuary. I found that alligator movement and feeding behaviors in this population were largely regulated by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors that varied seasonally. I also found that the population consisted of individuals that displayed an extremely wide range of movement and feeding behaviors, indicating that individual specialization is potentially an important determinant of the varied roles of alligators in ecosystems. Ultimately, I found that assuming top predator populations consist of individuals that all behave in similar ways in terms of their feeding, movements, and potential roles in ecosystems is likely incorrect. As climate change and ecosystem restoration and conservation activities continue to affect top predator populations worldwide, individuals will likely respond in different and possibly unexpected ways.

Obesity, cardiovascular disease risk factors and weight loss in a population of adult Mexican Americans

The study of obesity has evolved into one of the most important public health issues in the United States (U.S.), particularly in Hispanic populations. Mexican Americans, the largest Hispanic ethnic subgroup in the U.S., have been significantly impacted by obesity and related cardiovascular diseases. Mexican Americans living in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (the Valley) in the Texas-Mexico border are one of the most disadvantaged and hard-to-reach minority groups. Demographic factors, socioeconomic status, acculturation, and physical activity behavior have been found to be important predictors of health, although research findings are mixed when establishing predictors of obesity in this population. Furthermore, while obesity has long been linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and dyslipidemia; information on the relationships between obesity and these CVD risk factors have been mostly from non-minority population groups. Overall, research has been mixed in establishing the association between obesity and related CVD risk factors in this population calling attention to the need for further research. Nevertheless, identifying predictors of success for weight loss in this population will be important if health disparities are to be addressed. The overall objective of the findings presented in this dissertation was to attain a more informed profile of obesity and CVD risk factors in this population. In particular, we examined predictors of obesity, measures of obesity and association with cardiovascular disease risk factors in a sample of 975 Mexican Americans participating in a health promotion program in the Valley region. Findings suggest acculturation factors to be one of the most important predictors of obesity in this population. Results also point to the need of identifying other possible risk factors for predicting CVD risk. Finally, initial body mass index is an important predictor of weight loss in this population group. Thus, indicating that this population is not only amenable to change, but that improvements in weight loss are feasible. This finding strengthens the relevance of prevention programs such as Beyond Sabor for Mexican populations at risk, in particular, food bank recipients.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

Factors Affecting Current and Future Treeline Locations and Dynamics in the Peruvian Andes

The elevational distributions of tropical treelines are thought to be determined by temperature, and are predicted to shift upslope in response to global warming. In contrast to this hypothesis, global-scale studies have shown that only half of all studied treelines are shifting upslope. Understanding how treelines will respond to climate change has important implications for global biodiversity, especially in the tropics, because tropical treelines generally represent the upper-elevation distribution limit of the hyper-diverse cloudforest ecosystem. In Chapter 1, I introduce the idea that grasslands found above tropical treelines may represent a potential grass ceiling which forest species cannot cross or invade. I use an extensive literature review to outline potential mechanisms which may be acting to stabilize treeline and prevent forest expansion into high-elevation grasslands. In Chapters 2-4, I begin to explore these potential mechanisms through the use of observational and experimental methods. In Chapter 2, I show that there are significant numbers of seedlings occurring just outside of the treeline in the open grasslands and that seed rain is unlikely to limit seedling recruitment above treeline. I also show that microclimates outside of the closed-canopy cloudforest are highly variable and that mean temperatures are likely a poor explanation of tropical treeline elevations. In Chapter 3, I show that juvenile trees maintain freezing resistances similar to adults, but nighttime radiative cooling near the ground in the open grassland results in lower cold temperatures relative to the free atmosphere, exposing seedlings of some species growing above treeline to lethal frost events. In Chapter 4, I use a large-scale seedling transplant experiment to test the effects of mean temperature, absolute low temperature and shade on transplanted seedling survival. I find that increasing mean temperature negatively affects seedling survival of two treeline species while benefiting another. In addition, low temperature extremes and the presence of shade also appear to be important factors affecting seedling survival above tropical treelines. This work demonstrates that mean temperature is a poor predictor of tropical treelines and that temperature extremes, especially low temperatures, and non-climatic variables should be included in predictions of current and future tropical treeline dynamics.

The utility of an integrated qualitative/quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to evaluate the impact of youth development interventions on positive qualitative change in the life course

This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQDAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups.

Exploring the stages of change and perceived barriers to treatment models within the context of parental adherence to an early intervention program

Parent-mediated early intervention programs depend on the willingness and ability of parents to complete prescribed activities with their children. In other contexts, internal factors, such as stages of change, and external factors, such as barriers to treatment, have been shown to correlate with adherence to service. This researcher modified the Stages of Change Questionnaire as well as the Barriers to Treatment Participation Scale (BTPS) to use with this population. Despite initial interest, twenty-three parent participants were referred to the researcher over the course of three years, with only five parents taking part in the study. A population base ten times that of the current sample would be required recruit enough participants (fifty-one) to provide sufficient power. This feasibility study discusses the results of the five parent participants. Findings suggest that the modified Stages of Change Questionnaire may not be sensitive enough for use with the current sample, while the modified BTPS may yield useful information for service providers.