Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach

This paper has several original contributions. The first is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series- all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

A Numerical method for the semilinear stochastic transport equation

Trabalho apresentado no XXXV CNMAC, Natal-RN, 2014.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100

Neste trabalho, propomos uma especificação de modelo econométrico na forma reduzida, estimado por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) e baseado em variáveis macroeconômicas, com o objetivo de explicar os retornos trimestrais do índice de ações IBRX-100, entre 2001 e 2015. Testamos ainda a eficiência preditiva do modelo e concluímos que o erro de previsão estimado em janela móvel, com re-estimação de MQO a cada rodada, e utilização de VAR auxiliar para projeção dos regressores, é significativamente inferior ao erro de previsão associado à hipótese de Random Walk para o horizonte de previsão de um trimestre a frente.

Nitretação iônica sem efeito de borda :desenvolvimento e avaliação de uma nova técnica

The ionic nitriding process presents some limitations related with the control of the thickness of the layer and its uniformity. Those limitations that happen during the process, are produced due to edge effects, damage caused by arcing arc and hollow cathode, mainly in pieces with complex geometry and under pressures in excess of 1 mbar. A new technique, denominated ASPN (active screen shapes nitriding) it has been used as alternative, for offering many advantages with respect to dc plasma conventional. The developed system presents a configuration in that the samples treated are surrounded by a large metal screen at high voltage cathodic potencials, (varying between 0 and 1200V) and currents up to 1 A. The sample is placed in floting potential or polarized at relatively lower bias voltages by an auxiliary source. As the plasma is not formed directly in the sample surface but in the metal screen, the mentioned effects are eliminated. This mechanism allows investigate ion of the transfer of nitrogen to the substrate. Optical and electronic microscopy are used to exam morphology and structure at the layer. X-ray difration for phase identification and microhardness to evaluate the efficiency of this process with respect to dc conventional nitriding

Forma da paisagem como critério para otimização amostral de latossolos sob cultivo de cana-de-açúcar

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Design de interfaces para aplicativo de smartphone como recurso auxiliar no acompanhamento clínico de pacientes fibromiálgicos

Este trabalho tem como objetivo o desenvolvimento de interfaces com o usuário para aplicativo móvel smartphones com intuito de contribuir para a eficiência das atividades de profissionais e pesquisadores da área de fisioterapia ao oferecer suporte ao acompanhamento clínico da dor no tratamento de pacientes fibromiálgicos. Utilizando a abordagem de Design Centrado no Usuário - DCU, foram realizadas entrevistas e uma investigação contextual para a identificação inicial dos problemas e necessidades dos usuários. Verificou-se que as atividades de monitoramento e acompanhamento das sessões do tratamento de pacientes fibromiálgicos são, tradicionalmente, realizadas por meio de manipulando de formulários e fichas em papel (registro das condições de saúde do paciente) e escalas de classificação da dor em formato impresso (apresentadas ao paciente para indicação de sua dor percebida para cada ponto pré-determinado do corpo). Os procedimentos envolvidos nestas atividades dificultam o gerenciamento do desempenho do tratamento, o que, segundo relatos, reflete no comprometimento dos pacientes na adesão e frequência as sessões. A partir da observação e do levantamento das necessidades desses profissionais diante de suas atividades, foi proposto um aplicativo para smartphone com a intenção de minimizar os problemas ocasionados pelo uso das ferramentas convencionais e de prover informações rápidas acerca dos dados coletados. Então, seguindo a abordagem do DCU foi elaborado um modelo conceitual durante a etapa de concepção de soluções, o qual guiou a criação dos protótipos. A avaliação das interfaces do protótipo foi realizada com o envolvimento dos usuários a partir da técnica de avaliação cooperativa. Seus resultados proporcionaram o refinamento das interfaces e o desenvolvimento de uma nova proposta do design das interfaces em protótipo de alta fidelidade, produzido para o ambiente Android. Assim, esse trabalho faz parte do processo de desenvolvimento de um produto de software personalizado com foco na concepção e avaliação das interfaces com o usuário. Por meio da metodologia aplicada, observaram-se indícios os quais sugerem que as interfaces propostas apresentaram-se como um recurso facilitador e capaz de contribuir para eficiência das atividades no acompanhamento do tratamento de pacientes fibromiálgicos

Physical-chemical analysis of the cerebrospinal fluid of healthy dogs submitted to different storage periods and temperatures

Disfunções envolvendo o sistema nervoso são de grande importância na Medicina Veterinária, pois tratam-se de enfermidades de elevada incidência e com poucos subsídios auxiliares no seu diagnóstico, prognóstico e na avaliação de terapias empregadas. Ainda hoje, o diagnóstico baseia-se, em grande parte, no histórico e no exame clínico neurológico. Dessa forma, a análise dos constituintes do fluido cefalorraquidiano torna-se uma das poucas alternativas de acesso clínico ao sistema nervoso central (SNC). Mesmo com a grande utilidade do exame físico-químico e citoscópico do liquor na neurologia veterinária, poucos são os estudos sobre a estabilidade dos seus constituintes sob estocagem. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho teve como finalidade verificar a influência da temperatura e do tempo de conservação nas características físico-químicas do liquor de cães hígidos. Para tanto, foram coletadas amostras de LCR, através da punção da cisterna cerebelo-medular de cães clinicamente sadios, as quais foram submetidas à análise da densidade específica, do pH, da glicorraquia, das proteínas totais e das atividades das enzimas creatina quinase (CK) e aspartato aminotransferase (AST), após conservá-las em diferentes temperaturas (25°C, 4°C e -4°C) e por diferentes períodos de tempo (logo após a colheita, 24 horas, 48 horas, uma semana e um mês). Dentre os resultados obtidos, foi possível verificar, principalmente, que houve estabilidade dos parâmetros estudados por até um mês de estocagem nas amostras mantidas sob a temperaturas de congelamento de -4°C.

A revision of the genus Pulaeus Den Heyer, with descriptions of a new genus and four new Brazilian species (Acari: Prostigmata: Cunaxidae)

A new genus, Lupaeus gen. nov., is created to contain part of the described species in the genus Pulaeus Den Heyer. A key to the genera of the tribe Pulaeini, to which these two genera belong, and one auxiliary key to the species of Brazil and South Africa, are provided. Four new species, viz. Pulaeus myrtaceus sp. nov., P. quadrisolenidius sp. nov., Lupaeus lectus sp. nov. and L. lobidorsalis sp. nov. are described and figured. P. martini Den Heyer, 1981 is designated as type species for the new genus. New nomenclatural combinations are reported.

Comportamento da condutividade elétrica e do conteúdo de cloretos do leite como métodos auxiliares de diagnóstico na mastite subclínica bovina

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Vacinação e biossegurança: o olhar dos profissionais de enfermagem

The present study analyzes the conceptions and the nursing workers' practices about the relationship between vaccination and biosecurity in a public hospital of reference in communicable diseases in Natal/RN. It is treated, therefore, of a exploratory/descriptive study with qualitative and quantitative approach. They were constituted as collaborators of the research twenty-two nursing professionals, being five nurses, three auxiliary and fourteen technicians in nursing. The information were obtained through the interview technique with semi-structured route. In the quantitative approach, the information were analyzed by statistics and presented in form of tables and graphs to characterize the workers and the aspects related to the vaccination situation of the same ones; and in the qualitative approach, we used the method of content analysis. The analysis was accomplished starting from the categories empiric coming from the process of analysis of the field material, measure through inferences and interpretations based on the authors studied in the theoretical referential of the research. Starting from the analysis of the results, we verified that the nursing interviewees' workers establish in a clear way and it aims at, in your speeches, a direct relationship between vaccination and biosecurity besides attributing a meaning of great importance with relationship to the use of the vaccines in your professional lives in what refers to the control and decrease of the risks, above all the biological ones, to the which are exposed in the daily exercise of your functions. However, when analyzing those workers' vaccination situation, we verified that the vaccination covering still meets on this side of the expected for the vaccines of occupational interest, with prominence just for the vaccines against diphtheria and tetanus and to against hepatitis B, that presented coverings considered very good and above the national average. Considering that the institution, although has a service of health occupational active and offer some vaccines of occupational interest, it still presents a work of little mobilization in what refers to the consciousness and the workers' permanent education with relationship to the need and importance of the occupational vaccination, not only for your workers' protection, as well as measure in the infection control and, therefore, as safety for your patients/clients. We understood that that work type didn't still become politics guided by ministries of Health or of the Labor, however, it falls to the institutions that work for the interest of the workers' health to struggle for all and any action and mobilization that have as objective protects the workers of the risks in your work atmosphere

Dificuldades e/ou facilidades vivenciadas pelos profissionais que compõem a Estratégia de Saúde da Família

Descriptive and quantitative study, with the objective of review the positive and negative aspects experienced by professionals working in the Family Health Strategy (ESF) of Ceará-Mirim town, at Rio Grande do Norte state. The population included 190 healthcare professionals that integrate the family healthcare staff and the data-collection occurred in a meeting at their workplace, with the implementation of a questionnaire. Results were organized in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software, with descriptive statistical analysis in tables, graphs and tables through frequencies, averages values and standard deviations. There is a predominance of females (n = 137) and higher rates in almost all professions, and higher average age (38.9%, SD = 7.8) and income wage (average = 10) in the medical category. Regarding the more developed activities, for physicians and nurses are the healthcare actions in the Unit, the oral hygiene for dentists, the immunization for auxiliary nurses (Aux-N), educational meeting for the dental office assistants (ACD), and home visitations to community-based health workers (ACS). About the easiness of work, 93.2% said to be presence of professionals with a personal profile in public healthcare; about the difficulties, 86.8% of professionals cited the unavailability of material, followed by salary range reported by nurses (80.9% ), dentists (80.0%), physicians (73.3%), ACS (83.1%), and Aux-N (90.5%). In relation to working conditions, the unavailability of materials was the most mentioned, with the exception of dentists who reported improvement in wages. We still identify among these difficulties: the drugs availability regarded as first grade obstacle by ACS and physicians, the type of contracts in second grade cited by the ACD and dentists and, in third grade, the salary range cited by dentists and auxiliary nurses. It is concluded that the difficulties and easiness faced by ESF professionals are divergent among themselves. For physicians and nurses, whose healthcare actions become directed to specific groups, the individual and the family, their difficulties relate to the unavailability of materials. For dentists, whose actions more quoted were topical application of fluoride and supervised toothbrush, their greatest difficulty is the salary range. As to the Aux-N, ACD and ACS, for all of them the unavailability of materials has hindered the implementation of their activities in ESF

Caracterização do acidente de trânsito e gravidade do trauma: um estudo em vítimas de um hospital de emergência de Natal

Descriptive exploratory study, with quantitative approach and prospective data performed on the Monsenhor Walfredo Gurgel Hospital Complex (MWGH), in Natal/RN, aiming to classify the type of motor vehicle involved in the accident, the public roadway s user quality and the more frequent injuries; to evaluate the severity of trauma in traffic accident victims; characterized the severity of the injuries and the trauma, and the type of motor vehicle involved. The population comprises 605 traffic accident victims, with data collected between October and December 2007. We used as a support for the evaluation of severity of injuries and trauma the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCSl), the Condensed Abbreviated Injury Scale (CAIS) and the Injury Severity Score (ISS). The results show that 82.8% of the victims were male; 78.4% were aged 18 to 38; the victims originating from the State s Countryside prevailed (43.1%); 24.3% of the population had completed middle-level instruction; 23.1% worked on commerce and auxiliary activities; most (79.4%) was catholic; 48.8% were married/consensual union; 76.2% earned up to two monthly minimum wages; Sunday was the day with the most accidents (25.1%); 47.4% were attended to in under an hour after the event; the motorcycle on its own was responsible for 53.2% of the accidents; 42.3% were attended to by the SAMU; 61.8% were victims of crashes; over half (53.4%) used individual protection equipment (IPE); 49.4% were helmets and 4.0% the seatbelt; 61.3% were motorcycle drivers; 43.3% of the accidents took place in the afternoon shift; from 395 drivers, 55.2% were licensed, and 50.7% among those had been licensed for 1 to 5 years; 90.7% of the victims had GCS1 between 13 and 15 points at the time of evaluation; the body area most affected was the external surface (35.9%); 38.8% of the injuries were light or moderate (AIS=1 and AIS=2); 83.2% had light trauma (ISS between 1 and 15 points). In face of the results, we can conclude that there is a risk for the elevation of injury severity and trauma resulting from traffic accidents, when these events are related to certain variables such as gender, age, weekday, the interval between the accident and the first care, ingestion of drugs, type of accident, the public roadway s user quality, the use of IPE, day shift, body regions and the type of motor vehicle involved in the accident