From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Assessment of the potential skin irritation of lysine-derivative anionic surfactants using mouse fibroblast and human keratinocytes as an alternative to animal testing

Purpose. The aim of this study was to identify new surfactants with low skin irritant properties for use in pharmaceutical and cosmetic formulations, employing cell culture as an alternative method to in vivo testing. In addition, we sought to establish whether potential cytotoxic properties were related to the size of the counterions bound to the surfactants. Methods. Cytotoxicity was assessed in the mouse fibroblast cell line 3T6, and the human keratinocyte cell line NCTC 2544, using the MTT assay and uptake of the vital dye neutral red 24 h after dosing (NRU). Results. Lysine-derivative surfactants showed higher IC50s than did commercial anionic irritant compounds such as sodium dodecyl sulphate, proving to be no more harmful than amphoteric betaines. The aggressiveness of the surfactants depended upon the size of their constituent counterions: surfactants associated with lighter counterions showed a proportionally higher aggressivity than those with heavier ones. Conclusions. Synthetic lysine-derivative anionic surfactants are less irritant than commercial surfactants such as sodium dodecyl sulphate and Hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide and are similar to Betaines. These surfactants may offer promising applications in pharmaceutical and cosmetic preparations, representing a potential alternative to commercial anionic surfactants as a result of their low irritancy potential.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Immunothérapie: une solution dans les carcinomes épidermoïdes de la sphère ORL [Immunotherapy: a new alternative treatment for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma]

In the past decades, prognosis of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) has not improved even though treatment has made substantial progress. Since the description of immune response against some cancers, antitumoral immunotherapy has been studied to be used as adjunctive treatment in various cancer types. This article review contributions made in the field of immunotherapy on HNSCC in the past few years. It appears that this approach may play an important role in the treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Among various TAAs, cancer testis antigens family may be promising candidates for specific immune therapy in HNSCC. Ongoing studies will confirm whether expression CTAs generate an immune response in clinical vaccine trials.

Deicer Scaling Resistance of Concrete Mixtures Containing Slag Cement Phase 2: Evaluation of Different Laboratory Scaling Test Methods, TPF-5(100), 2012

With the use of supplementary cementing materials (SCMs) in concrete mixtures, salt scaling tests such as ASTM C672 have been found to be overly aggressive and do correlate well with field scaling performance. The reasons for this are thought to be because at high replacement levels, SCM mixtures can take longer to set and to develop their properties: neither of these factors is taken into account in the standard laboratory finishing and curing procedures. As a result, these variables were studied as well as a modified scaling test, based on the Quebec BNQ scaling test that had shown promise in other research. The experimental research focused on the evaluation of three scaling resistance tests, including the ASTM C672 test with normal curing as well as an accelerated curing regime used by VDOT for ASTM C1202 rapid chloride permeability tests and now included as an option in ASTM C1202. As well, several variations on the proposed draft ASTM WK9367 deicer scaling resistance test, based on the Quebec Ministry of Transportation BNQ test method, were evaluated for concretes containing varying amounts of slag cement. A total of 16 concrete mixtures were studied using both high alkali cement and low alkali cement, Grade 100 slag and Grade 120 slag with 0, 20, 35 and 50 percent slag replacement by mass of total cementing materials. Vinsol resin was used as the primary air entrainer and Micro Air® was used in two replicate mixes for comparison. Based on the results of this study, a draft alternative test method to ASTM C762 is proposed.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry as an alternative to 16S rRNA gene sequencing for identification of difficult-to-identify bacterial strains.

Conventional methods are sometimes insufficient to identify human bacterial pathogens, and alternative techniques, often molecular, are required. Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) identified with a valid score 45.9% of 410 clinical isolates from 207 different difficult-to-identify species having required 16S rRNA gene sequencing. MALDI-TOF MS might represent an alternative to 16S rRNA gene sequencing.

Sieve Analysis of Combined Aggregate Samples by Different Test Methods, MLR-84-05, 1982

This past winter the sieve analysis of combined aggregate was investigated. This study was given No. 26 by the Central Laboratory. The purpose of this work was to try and develop a sieve analysis procedure for combined aggregate which is less time consuming and has the same accuracy as the method described in I.M. 304. In an attempt to use a variety of aggregates for this investigation, a request was made to each District Materials Office to obtain at least 3 different combined aggregate samples in their respective districts. At the same time it was also requested that the field technician test these samples, prior to submitting them to the Central Laboratory. The field technician was instructed to test each sample as described in method I.M. 304 and also by a modified AASHTO T27 method which will be identified in the report as Method A. The modified AASHTO Method A was identical to T27 with the exception that a smaller sample is used for testing. The field technicians submitted the samples, test results and also comments regarding the modified AASHTO procedure. The general comments of the modified AASHTO procedure were: The method was much simpler to follow; however, it took about the same amount of time so there was no real advantage. After reviewing AASHTO T27, T164, I.M. 304 and Report No. FHWA-RD-77-53 another test method was purposed. Report No. FHWA-RD-77-53 is a report prepared by FHWA from data they gathered concerning control practices and shortcut or alternative test methods for aggregate gradation. A second test method was developed which also was very similar to AASHTO T27, The test procedure for this method is attached and is identified as Method B. The following is a summary of test results submitted by the Field Technicians and obtained by the aggregate section of the Central Laboratory.

Evaluation of Transverse Joint Forming Methods for PCC Pavement, TR-532, 2006

The members of the Iowa Concrete Paving Association, the National Concrete Pavement Technology Center Research Committee, and the Iowa Highway Research Board commissioned a study to examine alternative ways of developing transverse joints in portland cement concrete pavements. The present study investigated six separate variations of vertical metal strips placed above and below the dowels in conventional baskets. In addition, the study investigated existing patented assemblies and a new assembly developed in Spain and used in Australia. The metal assemblies were placed in a new pavement and allowed to stay in place for 30 days before the Iowa Department of Transportation staff terminated the test by directing the contractor to saw and seal the joints. This report describes the design, construction, testing, and conclusions of the project.

Offer and use of complementary and alternative medicine in hospitals of the French-speaking part of Switzerland.

Background: In 2004, complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) was offered by physicians in one third of Swiss hospitals. Since then, CAM health policy has considerably changed. This study aims at describing the present supply and use of CAM in hospitals of the French-speaking part of Switzerland, and qualitatively explores the characteristics of this supply. Methods: Between June 2011 and March 2012, a short questionnaire was sent to the medical directors of hospitals (N=46), asking them whether a CAM was offered, where and by whom. Then, a semi-directive interview was conducted with 10 CAM therapists. Results: Among 37 responses (return rate 80%), 19 medical directors indicated that their hospital offered at least one CAM and 18 reported that they did not. Acupuncture was the most frequently proposed CAM, followed by manual therapies, osteopathy and aromatherapy. The disciplines that offered CAM most frequently were rehabilitation, gynaecology- obstetrics, palliative care, psychiatry and anaesthesiology. In eight out of ten interviews, it appeared that the procedures for introducing a CAM in the hospital were not tightly supervised by the hospital but were mainly based on the goodwill of the therapists, rather than clinical/scientific evidence. Conclusion: Hospitals offering CAM in the French-speaking part of Switzerland seems to have risen since 2004. The selection of CAM to be offered in a hospital should be based on the same procedure of evaluation and validation as conventional care, and if their safety and efficiency is evidence-based, they should receive the same structural resources.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Ultra-performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry and sensitive bioassay methods for quantification of posaconazole plasma concentrations after oral dosing.

Posaconazole (POS) is a new antifungal agent for prevention and therapy of mycoses in immunocompromised patients. Variable POS pharmacokinetics after oral dosing may influence efficacy: a trough threshold of 0.5 ?g/ml has been recently proposed. Measurement of POS plasma concentrations by complex chromatographic techniques may thus contribute to optimize prevention and management of life-threatening infections. No microbiological analytical method is available. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new simplified ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method and a sensitive bioassay for quantification of POS over the clinical plasma concentration range. The UPLC-MS/MS equipment consisted of a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer, an electrospray ionization (ESI) source, and a C(18) analytical column. The Candida albicans POS-hypersusceptible mutant (MIC of 0.002 ?g/ml) ?cdr1 ?cdr2 ?flu ?mdr1 ?can constructed by targeted deletion of multidrug efflux transporters and calcineurin genes was used for the bioassay. POS was extracted from plasma by protein precipitation with acetonitrile-methanol (75%/25%, vol/vol). Reproducible standard curves were obtained over the range 0.014 to 12 (UPLC-MS/MS) and 0.028 to 12 ?g/ml (bioassay). Intra- and interrun accuracy levels were 106% ± 2% and 103% ± 4% for UPLC-MS/MS and 102% ± 8% and 104% ± 1% for bioassay, respectively. The intra- and interrun coefficients of variation were 7% ± 4% and 7% ± 3% for UPLC-MS/MS and 5% ± 3% and 4% ± 2% for bioassay, respectively. An excellent correlation between POS plasma concentrations measured by UPLC-MS/MS and bioassay was found (concordance, 0.96). In 26 hemato-oncological patients receiving oral POS, 27/69 (39%) trough plasma concentrations were lower than 0.5 ?g/ml. The UPLC-MS/MS method and sensitive bioassay offer alternative tools for accurate and precise quantification of the plasma concentrations in patients receiving oral posaconazole.

Medical record search engines, using pseudonymised patient identity: an alternative to centralised medical records

Purpose The purpose of our multidisciplinary study was to define a pragmatic and secure alternative to the creation of a national centralised medical record which could gather together the different parts of the medical record of a patient scattered in the different hospitals where he was hospitalised without any risk of breaching confidentiality. Methods We first analyse the reasons for the failure and the dangers of centralisation (i.e. difficulty to define a European patients' identifier, to reach a common standard for the contents of the medical record, for data protection) and then propose an alternative that uses the existing available data on the basis that setting up a safe though imperfect system could be better than continuing a quest for a mythical perfect information system that we have still not found after a search that has lasted two decades. Results We describe the functioning of Medical Record Search Engines (MRSEs), using pseudonymisation of patients' identity. The MRSE will be able to retrieve and to provide upon an MD's request all the available information concerning a patient who has been hospitalised in different hospitals without ever having access to the patient's identity. The drawback of this system is that the medical practitioner then has to read all of the information and to create his own synthesis and eventually to reject extra data. Conclusions Faced with the difficulties and the risks of setting up a centralised medical record system, a system that gathers all of the available information concerning a patient could be of great interest. This low-cost pragmatic alternative which could be developed quickly should be taken into consideration by health authorities.

Towards an alternative testing strategy for nanomaterials used in nanomedicine: Lessons from NanoTEST.

In spite of recent advances in describing the health outcomes of exposure to nanoparticles (NPs), it still remains unclear how exactly NPs interact with their cellular targets. Size, surface, mass, geometry, and composition may all play a beneficial role as well as causing toxicity. Concerns of scientists, politicians and the public about potential health hazards associated with NPs need to be answered. With the variety of exposure routes available, there is potential for NPs to reach every organ in the body but we know little about the impact this might have. The main objective of the FP7 NanoTEST project ( www.nanotest-fp7.eu ) was a better understanding of mechanisms of interactions of NPs employed in nanomedicine with cells, tissues and organs and to address critical issues relating to toxicity testing especially with respect to alternatives to tests on animals. Here we describe an approach towards alternative testing strategies for hazard and risk assessment of nanomaterials, highlighting the adaptation of standard methods demanded by the special physicochemical features of nanomaterials and bioavailability studies. The work has assessed a broad range of toxicity tests, cell models and NP types and concentrations taking into account the inherent impact of NP properties and the effects of changes in experimental conditions using well-characterized NPs. The results of the studies have been used to generate recommendations for a suitable and robust testing strategy which can be applied to new medical NPs as they are developed.