Fiscal adjustment and economic growth in the European Union

The current world economic crisis induced countries to launch wide-scale spending programmes all over the world. Member states of the European Union have not been an exception to this trend. While deficit spending may increase the aggregate demand, it can also accelerate indebtedness and make the required spending cuts politically risky later on. However, deficit financing is not a new phenomenon in the EU; it has been widely practiced in the last couple of decades. As the crisis seems to come to an end, countries with huge deficits should adopt exit strategies now, thereby reducing deficit and debt and reintroducing fiscal discipline, a requirement laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact. Nevertheless, former adjustment processes can provide ample evidence for successful and politically viable fiscal consolidations. In certain cases, even economic activity started to accelerate as a response to the welldesigned adjustment measures. Based on the previous experiences of EU states, the aim of this paper is, therefore, to identify the conditions that may determine a fiscal consolidation to be successful in terms of a reduced debt ratio and a positive economic growth.

Toward A Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-specific Lodging Demand

In his essay - Toward a Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-Specific Lodging Demand - by John A. Carnella, Consultant, Laventhol & Horwath, cpas, New York, Carnella initially describes his piece by stating: “The diversified hotel product in the united states lodging market has Resulted in latent room-night demand, or supply-driven demand resulting from the introduction of a lodging product which caters to a specific set of hotel patrons. The subject has become significant as the lodging market has moved toward segmentation with regard to guest room offerings. The author proposes that latent demand is a tangible, measurable phenomenon best understood in light of the history of the guest room product from its infancy to its present state.” The article opens with an ephemeral depiction of hotel development in the United States, both pre’ and post World War II. To put it succinctly, the author wants you to know that the advent of the inter-state highway system changed the complexion of the hotel industry in the U.S. “Two essential ingredients were necessary for the next phase of hotel development in this country. First was the establishment of the magnificently intricate infrastructure which facilitated motor vehicle transportation in and around the then 48 states of the nation,” says Carnella. “The second event…was the introduction of affordable highway travel. Carnella goes on to say that the next – big thing – in hotel evolution was the introduction of affordable air travel. “With the airways filled with potential lodging guests, developers moved next to erect a new genre of hotel, the airport hotel,” Carnella advances his picture. Growth progressed with the arrival of the suburban hotel concept, which wasn’t fueled by developments in transportation, but by changes in people’s living habits, i.e. suburban affiliations as opposed to urban and city population aggregates. The author explores the distinctions between full-service and limited service lodging operations. “The market of interest with consideration to the extended-stay facility is one dominated by corporate office parks,” Carnella proceeds. These evolutional states speak to latent demand, and even further to segmentation of the market. “Latent demand… is a product-generated phenomenon in which the number of potential hotel guests increases as the direct result of the introduction of a new lodging facility,” Carnella brings his unique insight to the table with regard to the specialization process. The demand is already there; just waiting to be tapped. In closing, “…there must be a consideration of the unique attributes of a lodging facility relative to its ability to attract guests to a subject market, just as there must be an examination of the property's ability to draw guests from within the subject market,” Carnella proposes.

Does market upgrading benefit farmers? : market differentiation, contract farming, and professional cooperatives in China's pork processing industry

This study tested whether contract farming or farmers professional cooperatives (FPCs) improved the social benefit of pork production and income of breeding farmers in China. The main concern of this study is whether institutional arrangement like contract farming or FPCs actually improved the welfare of farmers as expected. To answer this question accurately, we estimated the differentiated market demand of pork products in order to quantify the benefit by transaction types. Our study finds that contract farming or FPCs improved the benefits of pork products, but farmer's income remained lower than that of traditional transaction types. This finding is new in terms of quantifying distribution of the economic values among sales outlets, agro-firms and farmers. It is more reliable because it explicitly captures impacts from both demand side and supply side by structural estimation. In practice, we need to keep it mind the bargaining power of small farmers will not improve instantly even when the contract farming or FPCs are introduced.

San Francisco Coastal System grain size and geochemical data for sand provenance study

Over 150 million cubic meter of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach sized-sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.

A Simple Model of Access and Capacity for Post-Secondary Schooling in Canada (Working Paper 40)

This paper develops a simple model of the post-secondary education system in Canada that provides a useful basis for thinking about issues of capacity and access. It uses a supply-demand framework, where demand comes on the part of individuals wanting places in the system, and supply is determined not only by various directives and agreements between educational ministries and institutions (and other factors), but also the money available to universities and colleges through tuition fees. The supply and demand curves are then put together with a stylised tuition-setting rule to describe the “market” of post-secondary schooling. This market determines the number of students in the system, and their characteristics, especially as they relate to “ability” and family background, the latter being especially relevant to access issues. The manner in which various changes in the system – including tuition fees, student financial aid, government support for institutions, and the returns to schooling – are then discussed in terms of how they affect the number of students and their characteristics, or capacity and access.

El dinero en la historia del pensamiento económico: la teoría monetaria postkeynesiana y su confrontación con la ortodoxia

Las disputas en torno a determinados aspectos del dinero, como su neutralidad y el carácter endógeno o exógeno de la oferta monetaria, han sido permanentes entre las distintas escuelas de pensamiento y autores, estando su origen, probablemente, en la época de desarrollo del pensamiento escolástico. En este artículo pretendemos, en primer lugar, realizar un recorrido cronológico e histórico sobre el tratamiento científico económico del dinero, para, en segundo lugar, poner sobre la mesa la macroeconomía ortodoxa a la que han dado lugar las interpretaciones al respecto, así como los enfoques alternativos frente a este pensamiento dominante. Finalmente, intentamos poner en valor los desarrollos monetarios post-keynesianos, integrados en lo que denominan “Economía Monetaria de Producción”, confrontándolos con la llamada Nueva Síntesis Neoclásica.

Waste Not, Want Not: Managing Perishables in Small and Medium Retail Enterprises

Purpose of this paper:
Recent literature indicates that around one third of perishable products finish as waste (Mena et al., 2014): 60% of this waste can be classified as avoidable (EC, 2010) suggesting logistics and operational inefficiencies along the supply chain. In developed countries perishable products are predominantly wasted in wholesale and retail (Gustavsson et al., 2011) due to customer demand uncertainty the errors and delays in the supply chain (Fernie and Sparks, 2014). While research on logistics of large retail supply chains is well documented, research on retail small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs) capabilities to prevent and manage waste of perishable products is in its infancy (c.f. Ellegaard, 2008) and needs further exploration. In our study, we investigate the retail logistics practice of small food retailers, the factors that contribute to perishable products waste and the barriers and opportunities of SMEs in retail logistics to preserve product quality and participate in reverse logistics flows.

Design/methodology/approach:
As research on waste of perishable products for SMEs is scattered, we focus on identifying key variables that contribute to the creation of avoidable waste. Secondly we identify patterns of waste creation at the retail level and its possibilities for value added recovery. We use explorative case studies (Eisenhardt, 1989) and compare four SMEs and one large retailer that operate in a developed market. To get insights into specificities of SMEs that affect retail logistics practice, we select two types of food retailers: specialised (e.g. greengrocers and bakers) and general (e.g. convenience store that sells perishable products as a part of the assortment)

Findings:
Our preliminary findings indicate that there is a difference between large retailers and SME retailers in factors that contribute to the waste creation, as well as opportunities for value added recovery of products. While more factors appear to affect waste creation and management at large retailers, a small number of specific factors appears to affect SMEs. Similarly, large retailers utilise a range of practices to reduce risks of product perishability and short shelf life, manage demand, and manage reverse logistics practices. Retail SMEs on the other hand have limited options to address waste creation and value added recovery. However, our findings show that specialist SMEs could successfully minimize waste and even create possibilities for value added recovery of perishable products. Data indicates that business orientation of the SME, the buyersupplier relationship, and an extent of adoption of lean principles in retail coupled with SME resources, product specific regulations and support from local authorities for waste management or partnerships with other organizations determine extent of successful preservation of a product quality and value added recovery.

Value:
Our contribution to the SCM academic literature is threefold: first, we identify major factors that contribute to the generation waste of perishable products in retail environment; second, we identify possibilities for value added recovery for perishable products and third, we present opportunities and challenges for SME retailers to manage or participate in activities of value added recovery. Our findings contribute to theory by filling a gap in the literature that considers product quality preservation and value added recovery in the context of retail logistics and SMEs.

Research limitations/implications:
Our findings are limited to insights from five case studies of retail companies that operate within a developed market. To improve on generalisability, we intend to increase the number of cases and include data obtained from the suppliers and organizations involved in reverse logistics flows (e.g. local authorities, charities, etc.).

Practical implications:
With this paper, we contribute to the improvement of retail logistics and operations in SMEs which constitute over 99% of business activities in UK (Rhodes, 2015). Our findings will help retail managers and owners to better understand the possibilities for value added recovery, investigate a range of logistics and retail strategies suitable for the specificities of SME environment and, ultimately, improve their profitability and sustainability.

A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems

This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

Disentangling trade-offs and synergies around ecosystem services with the influence network framework: illustration from a consultative process over the French Alps

An important aspect of sustainability is to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning while improving human well-being. For this, the ecosystem service (ES) approach has the potential to bridge the still existing gap between ecological management and social development, especially by focusing on trade-offs and synergies between ES and between their beneficiaries. Several frameworks have been proposed to account for trade-offs and synergies between ES, and between ES and other components of social-ecological systems. However, to date, insufficient explicit attention has been paid to the three facets encompassed in the ES concept, namely potential supply, demand, and use, leading to incomplete descriptions of ES interactions. We expand on previous frameworks by proposing a new influence network framework (INF) based on an explicit consideration of influence relationships between these three ES facets, biodiversity, and external driving variables. We tested its ability to provide a comprehensive view of complex social-ecological interactions around ES through a consultative process focused on environmental management in the French Alps. We synthetized the interactions mentioned during this consultative process and grouped variables according to their overall propensity to influence or be influenced by the system. The resulting directed sequence of influences distinguished between: (1) mostly influential variables (dynamic social variables and ecological state variables), (2) target variables (provisioning and cultural services), and (3) mostly impacted variables (regulating services and biodiversity parameters). We discussed possible reasons for the discrepancies between actual and perceived influences and proposed options to overcome them. We demonstrated that the INF holds the potential to deliver collective assessments of ES relations by: (1) including ecological as well as social aspects, (2) providing opportunities for colearning processes between stakeholder groups, and (3) supporting communication about complex social-ecological systems and consequences for environmental management.

Development of a simple and fast “DNA extraction kit” for sea food identification and marine species

Seafood products fraud, the misrepresentation of them, have been discovered all around the world in different forms as false labeling, species substitution, short-weighting or over glazing in order to hide the correct identity, origin or weight of the seafood products. Due to the value of seafood products such as canned tuna, swordfish or grouper, these species are the subject of the commercial fraud is mainly there placement of valuable species with other little or no value species. A similar situation occurs with the shelled shrimp or shellfish that are reduced into pieces for the commercialization. Food fraud by species substitution is an emerging risk given the increasingly global food supply chain and the potential food safety issues. Economic food fraud is committed when food is deliberately placed on the market, for financial gain deceiving consumers (Woolfe, M. & Primrose, S. 2004). As a result of the increased demand and the globalization of the seafood supply, more fish species are encountered in the market. In this scenary, it becomes essential to unequivocally identify the species. The traditional taxonomy, based primarily on identification keys of species, has shown a number of limitations in the use of the distinctive features in many animal taxa, amplified when fish, crustacean or shellfish are commercially transformed. Many fish species show a similar texture, thus the certification of fish products is particularly important when fishes have undergone procedures which affect the overall anatomical structure, such as heading, slicing or filleting (Marko et al., 2004). The absence of morphological traits, a main characteristic usually used to identify animal species, represents a challenge and molecular identification methods are required. Among them, DNA-based methods are more frequently employed for food authentication (Lockley & Bardsley, 2000). In addition to food authentication and traceability, studies of taxonomy, population and conservation genetics as well as analysis of dietary habits and prey selection, also rely on genetic analyses including the DNA barcoding technology (Arroyave & Stiassny, 2014; Galimberti et al., 2013; Mafra, Ferreira, & Oliveira, 2008; Nicolé et al., 2012; Rasmussen & Morrissey, 2008), consisting in PCR amplification and sequencing of a COI mitochondrial gene specific region. The system proposed by P. Hebert et al. (2003) locates inside the mitochondrial COI gene (cytochrome oxidase subunit I) the bioidentification system useful in taxonomic identification of species (Lo Brutto et al., 2007). The COI region, used for genetic identification - DNA barcode - is short enough to allow, with the current technology, to decode sequence (the pairs of nucleotide bases) in a single step. Despite, this region only represents a tiny fraction of the mitochondrial DNA content in each cell, the COI region has sufficient variability to distinguish the majority of species among them (Biondo et al. 2016). This technique has been already employed to address the demand of assessing the actual identity and/or provenance of marketed products, as well as to unmask mislabelling and fraudulent substitutions, difficult to detect especially in manufactured seafood (Barbuto et al., 2010; Galimberti et al., 2013; Filonzi, Chiesa, Vaghi, & Nonnis Marzano, 2010). Nowadays,the research concerns the use of genetic markers to identify not only the species and/or varieties of fish, but also to identify molecular characters able to trace the origin and to provide an effective control tool forproducers and consumers as a supply chain in agreementwith local regulations.

Development and Application of Predictive Models for Survival, Growth, and Death of Enteric Pathogens in Leafy Greens Supply Chain

Leafy greens are essential part of a healthy diet. Because of their health benefits, production and consumption of leafy greens has increased considerably in the U.S. in the last few decades. However, leafy greens are also associated with a large number of foodborne disease outbreaks in the last few years. The overall goal of this dissertation was to use the current knowledge of predictive models and available data to understand the growth, survival, and death of enteric pathogens in leafy greens at pre- and post-harvest levels. Temperature plays a major role in the growth and death of bacteria in foods. A growth-death model was developed for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy greens for varying temperature conditions typically encountered during supply chain. The developed growth-death models were validated using experimental dynamic time-temperature profiles available in the literature. Furthermore, these growth-death models for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes and a similar model for E. coli O157:H7 were used to predict the growth of these pathogens in leafy greens during transportation without temperature control. Refrigeration of leafy greens meets the purposes of increasing their shelf-life and mitigating the bacterial growth, but at the same time, storage of foods at lower temperature increases the storage cost. Nonlinear programming was used to optimize the storage temperature of leafy greens during supply chain while minimizing the storage cost and maintaining the desired levels of sensory quality and microbial safety. Most of the outbreaks associated with consumption of leafy greens contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 have occurred during July-November in the U.S. A dynamic system model consisting of subsystems and inputs (soil, irrigation, cattle, wildlife, and rainfall) simulating a farm in a major leafy greens producing area in California was developed. The model was simulated incorporating the events of planting, irrigation, harvesting, ground preparation for the new crop, contamination of soil and plants, and survival of E. coli O157:H7. The predictions of this system model are in agreement with the seasonality of outbreaks. This dissertation utilized the growth, survival, and death models of enteric pathogens in leafy greens during production and supply chain.

Occupational exposure to mycotoxins: aspects to consider for the aggregate and cumulative risk assessment

Mycotoxins are an important group of naturally occurring substances known to contaminate a huge variety of agricultural products, feed and food commodities. The main concern is their widespread presence and toxic effects on humans and animals as they have been described as cytotoxic, nephrotoxic, hepatotoxic, teratogenic, immunosuppressive, mutagenic and/or carcinogenic. However, until now, risk assessments and regulations have usually been performed on individual mycotoxins despite humans and animals are being frequently exposed to a multitude of mycotoxins simultaneously. Moreover, even though some exposures through inhalation and dermal contact may potentially occur, only oral ingestion has been considered as the sole route of exposure in all the evaluations. However, more recent studies have also demonstrated airborne exposure to mycotoxins in different occupational settings with emphasis on agricultural professions. In these cases, skin contact with mold-infested substrates and inhalation of spore-borne toxins are the most important sources of exposure. Still, mycotoxins are not normally recongnize as na occupational hazard and exposure is different from the one ocurring by food intake. In this case, exposure is charaterized to be acute and simultaneous to other mycotoxins and also to fungi and dust. All these features increase the challenge implicated in the risk assessment process. Some topics will be presented and discussed in detailed such as: What occupational settings should be consider in this case; possible exposure routes; exposure characterization; how to assess exposure; co-exposure; aggregate exposure and cumulative risk assessment.

Essays on Information Frictions, Prices and Unemployment

I investigate the effects of information frictions in price setting decisions. I show that firms' output prices and wages are less sensitive to aggregate economic conditions when firms and workers cannot perfectly understand (or know) the aggregate state of the economy. Prices and wages respond with a lag to aggregate innovations because agents learn slowly about those changes, and this delayed adjustment in prices makes output and unemployment more sensitive to aggregate shocks. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I show that workers' noisy information about the state of the economy help us to explain why real wages are sluggish. In the context of a search and matching model, wages do not immediately respond to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, and it makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to aggregate shocks. This mechanism is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment: the flexibility of wages for new hires and the cyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model explains 60% of the overall unemployment volatility. Consistent with empirical evidence, the response of unemployment to TFP shocks predicted by my model is large, hump-shaped, and peaks one year after the TFP shock, while the response of the aggregate wage is weak and delayed, peaking after two years. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I study the role of information frictions and inventories in firms' price setting decisions in the context of a monetary model. In this model, intermediate goods firms accumulate output inventories, observe aggregate variables with one period lag, and observe their nominal input prices and demand at all times. Firms face idiosyncratic shocks and cannot perfectly infer the state of nature. After a contractionary nominal shock, nominal input prices go down, and firms accumulate inventories because they perceive some positive probability that the nominal price decline is due to a good productivity shock. This prevents firms' prices from decreasing and makes current profits, households' income, and aggregate demand go down. According to my model simulations, a 1% decrease in the money growth rate causes output to decline 0.17% in the first quarter and 0.38% in the second followed by a slow recovery to the steady state. Contractionary nominal shocks also have significant effects on total investment, which remains 1% below the steady state for the first 6 quarters.

Recent development and commercial adoption of legumes for heavy clay soils in Queensland

In previous chapters of this volume, various authors describe the development of herbaceous legumes for pastures on clay soils in Queensland until about the 1980s. Emphasis is on the collection and evaluation of the genus Desmanthus, given its relatively recent addition to agriculture and considerable potential for providing useful pasture legumes for clay soils, particularly in the seasonally dry areas of northern Australia. Other genera are also discussed, including early assessments of herbaceous legumes that were later developed for clay soils (Clitoria, Macroptilium and Stylosanthes). This chapter provides a summary of the development of herbaceous legumes for clay soils in Queensland from these earlier assessments until present. Beef cattle farming is the principal agricultural enterprise in seasonally dry areas of northern Australia, including large areas of clay soils in Queensland. Sown and naturally occurring grasses provide the key feed resource, and the inclusion of sown legumes can significantly improve live-weight gain and reproductive performance per unit area. Queensland has been the centre of development for legumes for clay soils in tropical and subtropical areas of Australia, mostly through assessing and developing plants held in the Australian Tropical Forages Genetic Resource Collection (ATFGRC) (now a component of the Australia Pastures Genebank (APG)). The systematic appraisal of genetic material for clay soils was a focus of well-resourced government research up to the early to mid-1990s, but declined thereafter as sown pasture research teams were dismantled and funding to maintain the ATFGRC declined. Cultivar development is now conducted by small government, private enterprise and university research teams that collaborate where possible. In recent studies the use of experienced researcher knowledge and old plant evaluation sites has been particularly valuable for identifying potentially useful material. Cultivars for long- and short-term pastures on clay soils have been developed to the level of commercial seed production for Desmanthus (five cultivars from four species with two cultivars (one composite) in current use), Clitoria ternatea (one cultivar), Macroptilium bracteatum (two) and Stylosanthes seabrana (two). Other potential cultivars of these species are currently in various stages of development. Each species has different production niches depending on climate, clay soil type and grazing strategy. Adoption of these cultivars is occurring but has variously been impeded by limited promotion, mismatch of seed supply and demand, and difficulty establishing legumes in pastures of some key grass species. Recent renewed investment by the Australian Beef Industry has seen revived government research into pasture legumes in Queensland and rejuvenation of the APG.