Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Collateral, Intermediated Lending, and Aggregate Productivity

Neste trabalho busca-se compreender como que restrições a diferentes tipos de crédito - doméstico e internacional - afetam a dinâmica de uma economia, especialmente com relação a sua Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF). Para ajudar no entendimento dessa questão e assuntos relacionados, propomos um simples modelo de economia aberta. Nesse contexto, empreendedores domésticos possuem produtividades heterogêneas, o que implica que a distribuição de riqueza entre indivíduos é essencial para a determinação da produtividade agregada da economia. Além disso, o ambiente de comprometimento limitado obriga os tomadores de empréstimo a dispor de colateral para contrair dívidas. Por hipótese, dívida doméstica e externa requerem diferentes quantidades de colateral. O modelo gera uma dinâmica macroeconômica rica após mudanças na taxa de juros internacional e restrições a crédito. Mais especificamente, um alívio na restrição doméstica causa um aumento da PTF, enquanto a mesma variação na restrição internacional tem o efeito contrário.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

This paper tests the optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level taking into account popular deviations from the canonical constant-relative-risk-aversion (CRRA) utility function model-rule of thumb and habit. First, based on the critique in Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) of the linearization and testing strategies using euler equations for consumption, we provide extensive empirical evidence of their inappropriateness - a drawback for standard rule- of-thumb tests. Second, we propose a novel approach to test for consumption optimality in this context: nonlinear estimation coupled with return aggregation, where rule-of-thumb behavior and habit are special cases of an all encompassing model. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Moreover, out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically significant only twice. Hence, lack of optimality in consumption decisions represent the exception, not the rule. Finally, we found the habit parameter to be statistically significant on four occasions out of 24.

Implications of ernbodied technological change for development economics

Employing a embodied technologic change model in which the time decision of scrapping old vintages of capital and adopt newer one is endogenous we show that the elasticity of substitutions among capital and labor plays a key role in determining the optimum life span of capital. In particular, for the CD case the life span of capital does not depend on the relative price of it. The estimation of the model's long-run investment function shows, for a Panel data set consisting of 125 economies for 25 years, that the price elasticity of investment is lower than one; we rejected the CD specification. Our calibration for the US suggests 0.4 for the technical elasticity of substitution. In order to get a theoretical consistent concept of aggregate capital we derive the relative price profile for a shadow second-hand market for capital. The shape of the model's theoretical price curve reproduces the empírical estimation of it. \lVe plug the calibrate version of the long-run solution of the model to a cross-section of economies data set to get the implied TFP, that is, the part of the productivity which is not explained by the model. We show that the mo dei represent a good improvement, comparing to the standard neoc!assical growth model with CD production function and disembodied technical change, in accounting the world diversity in productivity. In addition the model describes the fact that a very poor economy can experience fast growth based on capital accumulation until the point of becoming a middle income economy; from this point on it has to rely on TFP increase in order to keep growing.

Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Hedge accounting com derivativos exóticos e tributação

Esta pesquisa analisou a aplicação da metodologia de hedge accounting na contabilização de derivativos financeiros em conjunto com a operação objeto de proteção. Foi demonstrado o cálculo do valor justo por marcação a mercado, o teste de efetividade do hedge, a documentação e classificação contábil nos modelos de hedge de valor justo e hedge de fluxo de caixa. Foi verificado ainda o impacto da tributação na efetividade da operação de hedge.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

IP network usage accounting

De modo a manter políticas de utilização aceitável dos seus serviços de Internet, a NOS Madeira tem usado um sistema de fabrico próprio onde os clientes são catalogados de acordo com o tráfego que realizam. Contudo, esse sistema tornou-se demasiado antigo para as necessidades atuais da empresa. Usava tecnologias descontinuadas, não tinha interfaces de integração, faltava modularidade e não tinha a flexibilidade necessária para expandir as regras de negócio. Este projeto centra-se na implementação de um dos três subsistemas que substituem o sistema antigo: o subsistema controlador. O objetivo é modernizar, facilitar a manutenção e garantir maior flexibilidade. Tudo isto com recurso a linguagens de programação atuais como o PHP, ferramentas como a Zend Framework e mantendo em mente as melhores práticas de programação. São apresentados a especificação e modelação do sistema, assim como todos os detalhes da implementação em conjunto com as decisões e problemas encontrados. Os testes e resultados, incluindo a entrada com sucesso em produção do sistema, juntamente com sugestões de melhorias futuras concluem este trabalho.

IP network usage accounting, parte 2: accounting system

O controlo de banda larga é um conceito importante quando lidamos com redes de larga escala. Os ISPs precisam de garantir disponibilidade e qualidade de serviço a todos os clientes, enquanto garantem que a rede como um todo não fica mais lenta. Para garantir isto, é necessário que os ISPs recolham dados de tráfego, analisem-nos e usem-nos para definir a velocidade de banda larga de cada cliente. A NOS Madeira implementou, durante vários anos, um sistema semelhante. No entanto, este sistema encontrava-se obsoleto, sendo necessário construir um novo, totalmente de raíz. Entre as limitações encontrava-se a impossibilidade de alterar os algoritmos de análise de tráfego, fraca integração com os serviços de gestão de rede da NOS Madeira e reduzida escalabilidade e modularidade. O sistema IP Network Usage Accounting é a resposta a estes problemas. Este projeto foca-se no desenvolvimento do subsistema Accounting System, o segundo dos três subsistemas que compõem o sistema IP Network Usage Accounting. Este subsistema, implementado com sucesso e atualmente em produção na NOS Madeira, é responsável por analisar os dados referidos acima e usar os resultados dessa análise para direcionar a disponibilidade de banda larga, de acordo com o uso da rede de cada cliente.

Soil CO2 emission as related to incorporation of sugarcane crop residues and aggregate breaking after rotary tiller

O preparo do solo é um dos processos que aceleram a decomposição da matéria orgânica, transferindo carbono para atmosfera, principalmente na forma de CO2. Neste trabalho, investigou-se o efeito do preparo com enxada rotativa sobre as emissões de CO2 do solo durante 02 semanas após o preparo do solo, incluindo-se a presença de resíduos vegetais sobre a superfície. As emissões foram avaliadas por 15 dias após preparo em 3 parcelas: 1) sem preparo e sem palha superficial (SPs); 2) preparo com enxada rotativa sem a presença de palha na superfície (ERs), e 3) preparo com enxada rotativa com a presença de palha superficial (ERc). As emissões provenientes da ERc foram superiores às demais (0,777 g CO2 m-2 h-1), sendo as menores emissões registradas na parcela SPs (0,414 g CO2 m-2 h-1). As emissões totais indicaram que a diferença de C-CO2 emitida à atmosfera corresponde a 3% do total de carbono adicional presente na palha, na parcela ERc, quando comparado à parcela ERs. O aumento da emissão da parcela SPs para ERs foi acompanhado de uma modificação na distribuição do tamanho de agregados, especialmente aqueles com diâmetro médio inferior a 2 mm. O aumento da emissão da parcela ERs para ERc esteve relacionado a uma diminuição da massa de palha na superfície, com fragmentação e incorporação da mesma no interior do solo. Quando se analisa a correlação linear entre emissão de CO2 versus temperatura e umidade do solo, somente a emissão da ERc foi significativamente correlacionada (p<0,05) à umidade do solo.

Spatial variability of aggregate stability in latosols under sugarcane

Solos submetidos ao mesmo sistema de manejo manifestam variabilidade espacial diferenciada de seus atributos. A variabilidade espacial da estabilidade de agregados foi caracterizada em um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico e Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico, sob cultivo de cana-de-açúcar. Foram realizadas amostragens de terra nos pontos de interseção de uma malha de 10 x 10 linhas, espaçadas de 10 m, totalizando 100 pontos de amostragem por área, coletadas nas camadas de 0,0-0,2 e 0,2-0,4 m de profundidade, para determinação de diâmetro médio geométrico (DMG), diâmetro médio ponderado (DMP), agregados na classe >2,0 mm e teor de matéria orgânica do solo. O Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico apresenta maior estabilidade de agregados quando comparado com o Latossolo Vermelho distrófico, condizente com o maior teor de argila, matéria orgânica e mineralogia gibbsítica. A evolução diferenciada dos Latossolos estudados explica os maiores alcances, o menor coeficiente de variação (CV) e a menor variabilidade, observados no Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico para todos os atributos estudados.

Recycling of glass cullet as aggregate for clays used to produce roof tiles

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aggregates in the strength and gravity regime: Particles sizes in Saturn's rings

Particles in Saturn's main rings range in size from dust to kilometer-sized objects. Their size distribution is thought to be a result of competing accretion and fragmentation processes. While growth is naturally limited in tidal environments, frequent collisions among these objects may contribute to both accretion and fragmentation. As ring particles are primarily made of water ice attractive surface forces like adhesion could significantly influence these processes, finally determining the resulting size distribution. Here, we derive analytic expressions for the specific self-energy Q and related specific break-up energy Q(star) of aggregates. These expressions can be used for any aggregate type composed of monomeric constituents. We compare these expressions to numerical experiments where we create aggregates of various types including: regular packings like the face-centered cubic (fcc), Ballistic Particle Cluster Aggregates (BPCA), and modified BPCAs including e.g. different constituent size distributions. We show that accounting for attractive surface forces such as adhesion a simple approach is able to: (a) generally account for the size dependence of the specific break-up energy for fragmentation to occur reported in the literature, namely the division into "strength" and "gravity" regimes and (b) estimate the maximum aggregate size in a collisional ensemble to be on the order of a few tens of meters, consistent with the maximum particle size observed in Saturn's rings of about 10 m. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revegetation on a Removed Topsoil: Effect on Aggregate Stability

The construction of a large reservoir on the Parana River (Selviria, MS, Brazil) disturbed the soil of an extensive agricultural area in which between 5 and 8m of topsoil were removed. In this area, a restoration process was carried out using revegetation with green manure without or with amendments (for 4 years), crops (2 years), and Brachiaria decumbens cultivation for 6 years. The following treatments were used: control plots, T0 (residual subsoil) and T1 (soil tillage without culture); plots with green manure and without amendments: T2 (velvet bean) and T3 (pigeon pea); plots with green manure and with amendments: T4 (limed + velvet bean), T5 (limed + pigeon pea); T6 (limed + gypsum + velvet bean) and T7 (limed + gypsum + pigeon-pea). They were arranged in randomized blocks. After 13 years of rehabilitation process, when the soil was cultivated with brachiaria, the structural stability in three depths was evaluated. Organic-matter content and others chemical properties did not show any relationship with the stability of aggregates of the experimental area as measured by mean weight diameter (MWD). Significant differences between depths were found for MWD and the other parameters measured. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences observed between treatments, independent of the adopted system of revegetation. By taking an absolute value of MWD, the stability of superficial layer was observed in the following sequence: T7 T5 T6 T1 T2 T3 T4 T0. The control plot (T0) gave the lowest value of MWD (1.76mm) in relation to the plots in restoration process. Treatment T7 was the most effective in recovering the stability of aggregates (2.63mm). However, treatments T5 and T6 displayed a similar value. After 13 years of revegetation practices, a slight recovery of the stability was observed, although this is still lower than stability in soils of similar edaphic conditions in the original topsoil of experimental area.