Comparing hybrid data assimilation methods on the Lorenz 1963 model with increasing nonlinearity

We systematically compare the performance of ETKF-4DVAR, 4DVAR-BEN and 4DENVAR with respect to two traditional methods (4DVAR and ETKF) and an ensemble transform Kalman smoother (ETKS) on the Lorenz 1963 model. We specifically investigated this performance with increasing nonlinearity and using a quasi-static variational assimilation algorithm as a comparison. Using the analysis root mean square error (RMSE) as a metric, these methods have been compared considering (1) assimilation window length and observation interval size and (2) ensemble size to investigate the influence of hybrid background error covariance matrices and nonlinearity on the performance of the methods. For short assimilation windows with close to linear dynamics, it has been shown that all hybrid methods show an improvement in RMSE compared to the traditional methods. For long assimilation window lengths in which nonlinear dynamics are substantial, the variational framework can have diffculties fnding the global minimum of the cost function, so we explore a quasi-static variational assimilation (QSVA) framework. Of the hybrid methods, it is seen that under certain parameters, hybrid methods which do not use a climatological background error covariance do not need QSVA to perform accurately. Generally, results show that the ETKS and hybrid methods that do not use a climatological background error covariance matrix with QSVA outperform all other methods due to the full flow dependency of the background error covariance matrix which also allows for the most nonlinearity.

Sociologin i Grekland : från 1907 fram till Metaxas-diktaturen (1936–1940) och andra världskriget

Sociology in Greece from 1907 to the Metaxas dictatorship (1936–40) and the Second World War This paper focuses on pre-conditions for sociology to develop and the subject matters of emerging sociology in Greece. Pre-conditions were at hand but without continuity, and the opportunity for sociology to develop was lost. Sociology is said to have started in 1907 with the book The Social Question by Georgos Skliros. He presented sociology and Marxism as identical and deals with Greek society and (among other things) the language issue, all of which triggered off a vibrant debate. Sociological associations and journals were started. However, the initially reformist perspective of social science was gradually replaced by an approach that was more socio-philosophical, influenced by classical sociology, German sociology in particular. This turn was associated with the institutionalization of sociology at the universities during the 1920’s. The Metaxas dictatorship in 1936 put a stop to any further development of sociology for a long time.

Single transferable vote with Borda elimination: proportional representation, moderation, quasi-chaos and stability

Modifying single transferable vote (STV) by removing candidates according to their Borda scores creates a new vote counting system (STV-B) that is not quasi-chaotic, results in proportional representation, and promotes the election of moderate candidates. Dummett, M.A.E. [1997. Principles of Electoral Reform. Oxford University, New York] noted quasi-chaos in STV and proposed the “Quota/Borda system” (QBS) as a solution. STV-B and QBS retain proportional representation from STV, permit some influence on candidate selection to occur between voting blocks thereby promoting moderate results, and are much more stable than STV when subjected to small changes in voter preferences. Under STV-B, and not QBS, a minority that shares some preferences may elect a candidate even if the minority is not a solid coalition.

Single transferable vote with Borda elimination : a new vote counting system

Dummett (1997) notes particular difficulties with single transferable vote (STV) and proposes an alternative vote counting system called "Quota/Borda system" (QBS) to remedy specific difficulties. I propose an alternative system, structurally related to QBS, which accomplishes similar solutions but has some significant differences. This alternative system is identical to STV in all aspects except one. It eliminates candidates in reverse order of their Borda scores rather than by their current ranking of first-place votes. I designate this system STV with Borda elimination (STV-B). STV-B and QBS share general features. They retain proportional representation from STV. However, they differ from STV is two critical manners. First, both permit some influence on candidate selection to occur between voting blocks. Second, they are much more stable than STV when subjected to small changes in voter preferences. Outcomes from STV-B differ from QBS outcomes in two ways. Under STV-B, a minority that shares some preferences may elect a candidate even if the minority is not a solid coalition, as is required for minorities under QBS. Further, QBS always selects Borda winners, either for a minority or overall. STV-B may reject a Borda winner through emphasis on each voter's most preferred candidates.

Tatler (Volume 5 1907)

The Winthrop yearbook was published from 1898 to 2002. It has been known as the Tatler since its inception except for 1904 (Lang Syne) and 1918 (Tatler a la Guerre). No yearbook was published in 1900, 1902, 1903, 1905,1906.

Estudo crítico das metodologias de cálculo para perfis dobrados a frio de vigas tipo canal sem enrijecedores de borda

Neste trabalho é realizada uma análise crítica sobre as formas de dimensionamento de estruturas de chapa dobrada, apresentando as metodologias utilizadas pelas principais normas modernas de cálculo, juntamente com metodologias não convencionais. Para realizar dita análise concentrou se a atenção num tipo de perfil simples (perfis não enrijecidos), e submetido a dois tipos de carregamento: carga axial concentrada no centro de gravidade; barra trabalhando como viga em balanço com carga aplicada no centro de corte. Foi realizado um estudo comparativo, entre as normas de cálculo NBR 14762, AISI e Eurocode 3, com outros métodos de dimensionamento, que são: o método direto desenvolvido por Schafer (1997); e duas formulações de análise por elementos finitos: uma considerando a carga de flambagem elástica; e outra empregando uma análise não linear física e geométrica, para perfis submetidos à compressão centrada e à flexão. Neste trabalho realizou-se um estudo paramétrico, registrando em gráficos e tabelas a influência de parâmetros tais como: comprimento do elemento analisado; da relação entre a alma e a mesa; da relação alma e a espessura. Através destes gráficos é possível observar as diversas formas de colapso (flambagem local, flambagem global, colapso plástico entre outras) se apresentando como críticas e interagindo entre si. Realizaram-se também dois experimentos de perfis submetidos à flexão, com o objetivo de verificar a grandeza dos valores obtidos através das diversas metodologias de cálculo. Para aplicação prática dos conceitos e métodos apresentados fez-se a verificação do dimensionamento de uma estrutura utilizada como prateleira em um almoxarifado de uma empresa metalúrgica situada na grande Porto Alegre, a qual apresentou flambagem lateral de seus elementos horizontais.