War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

A cross-cultural shortened form of the ZKPQ (ZKPQ-50-CC) adapted to English, French, German, and Spanish languages.

The aim of the present study was to develop a short form of the Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire (ZKPQ) with acceptable psychometric properties in four languages: English (United States), French (Switzerland), German (Germany), and Spanish (Spain). The total sample (N = 4,621) was randomly divided into calibration and validation samples. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted in the calibration sample. Eighty items, with loadings equal or higher than 0.30 on their own factor and lower on the remaining factors, were retained. A confirmatory factor analysis was performed over the survival items in the validation sample in order to select the best 10 items for each scale. This short version (named ZKPQ-50-CC) presents psychometric properties strongly similar to the original version in the four countries. Moreover, the factor structure are near equivalent across the four countries since the congruence indices were all higher than 0.90. It is concluded that the ZKPQ-50-CC presented a high cross-language replicability, and it could be an useful questionnaire that may be used for personality research.

The Emergence and Governance of Euroregions: The Case of the Euregio on the Dutch-German Border

Amb una història que data de la dècada de 1950, la EUREGIO és un de les més antigues euroregions a Europa. Es pot considerar com un cas exitós d'una regió transfronterera (CBR) en el sentit que s'ha establert fermament com una agència de fronteres dins del seu tram de la frontera holandesa-alemanya. L'EUREGIO també ha estat una de les protagonistes principals darrere de l'Associació de Regions Frontereres Europees (ARFE), que en les últimes dècades va actuar per difondre el model d'euroregió a tot el territori europeu. Aquest capítol té diversos objectius. En primer lloc, es presenta el cas de la EUREGIO i presenta evidència sobre la seva història, estructura orgànica i polítiques. En segon lloc, s'analitzen les condicions del context en què la EUREGIO ha sorgit i les estructures de govern que es van crear com a resultat. Es fa especial èmfasi en la posició i el paper de l'Euroregió en el context més ampli del marc de governança europea multinivell generat per la política de cohesió de la UE. El capítol conclou amb un intent d'avaluar l'èxit i l'impacte de la EUREGIO i una discussió dels reptes relacionats amb la doble funció de l'EUREGIO com a representant dels interessos de les autoritats locals i les agències de cohesió de la UE posada en pràctica de les polítiques.

Violence and displacement. Evidence from the Spanish civil war (1936-1939)

This paper explores the relationship between violence and displacement during civil war focusing on two different forms of population movements (i.e. incoming and outgoing), and two different forms of violence (i.e. direct and indirect). The paper explores the relationship between displacement and violence at the local level in the context of a civil war fought conventionally using fine-grained data from 1,062 municipalities of the region of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). First, the paper suggests that exogenous and endogenous to the war factors combine to generate patterns of resettlement. Second, the evidence indicates that, in acivil war context, refugee flows and violence are interrelated in multiple ways: the arrival of internal refugees in a locality promotes the perpetration of direct violence against civilians; this, in turn, triggers the departure of people from the locality when the other group approaches. Third, indirect violence (i.e. bombings) shows to be the most significant factor accounting for external displacement at the local level, suggesting that bombing can serve as a strong signal for civilians of the type of armed group they are facing. Finally, the Spanish case suggests that the demographic changes provoked by displacement, combined with the lethality of the conflict, are likely to have long-term political consequences.

The Franco-German motor before the eastern enlargement: the causes of its decline

The Franco-German axis has been a transcendent force behind the European integration ever since the early years of the EEC. Nevertheless, since the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the perception of a progressive distancing between France and Germany as far as the EU politics is concerned, has increased. There has not been a definitive break in Franco-German relations. However, the influence of the Franco-German axis in the EU has been reduced in the 90s. Finally, in the Nice IGC (December 2000), the misunderstandings of these two “big” states about their weight in the Council, almost caused the failure to conclude the Treaty of Nice, clearing the way for the Eastern enlargement. The traditional balance between France and Germany has been eroded. Germany has consolidated its role of leadership in the EU, and above all towards the candidate countries. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the fifth enlargement as one of the causes of the decline of the Franco-German axis as the motor of the process of European integration.

Adaptation en français et en allemand d'une échelle de pression des pairs pour jeunes adultes : le Peer Pressure Inventory [Adaptation of a peer pressure scale in French and German: the Peer Pressure Inventory].

BACKGROUND: Peer pressure is regarded as an important determinant of substance use, sexual behavior and juvenile delinquency. However, few peer pressure scales are validated, especially in French or German. Little is known about the factor structure of such scales or the kind of scale needed: some scales takes into account both peer pressure to do and peer pressure not to do, while others consider only peer pressure to do. The aim of the present study was to adapt French and German versions of the Peer Pressure Inventory, which is one of the most widely used scales in this field. We considered its factor structure and concurrent validity. METHODS: Five thousand eight hundred and sixty-seven young Swiss men filled in a questionnaire on peer pressure, substance use, and other variables (conformity, involvement) in a cohort study. RESULTS: We identified a four-factor structure, with the three factors of the initial Peer Pressure Inventory (involvement, conformity, misconduct) and adding a new one (relationship with girls). A non-valued scale (from no peer pressure to peer pressure to do only) showed stronger psychometric qualities than a valued scale (from peer pressure not to do to peer pressure to do). Concurrent validity was also good. Each behavior or attitude was significantly associated with peer pressure. CONCLUSION: Peer pressure seems to be a multidimensional concept. In this study, peer pressure to do showed the strongest influence on participants. Indeed, peer pressure not to do did not add anything useful. Only peer pressure to do affected young Swiss men's behaviors and attitudes and was reliable.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.