Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Pairs trading profits in commodity futures markets

This study employs a pairs trading investment strategy on daily commodity futures returns. The study reveals that pairs trading in similarly related commodity futures earns statistically significant excess returns with commensurate volatility. The excess returns from pairs trading in commodity futures are unrelated to conventional market risk factors and they are not associated with classic contrarian investing. The evidence of pairs trading reflect compensation to arbitrageurs for enforcing the law of one price in similarly related market efficiency.

Conditional coskewness and asset pricing

We explore the empirical usefulness of conditional coskewness to explain the cross-section of equity returns. We find that coskewness is an important determinant of the returns to equity, and that the pricing relationship varies through time. In particular we find that when the conditional market skewness is positive investors are willing to sacrifice 7.87% annually per unit of gamma (a standardized measure of coskewness risk) while they only demand a premium of 1.80% when the market is negatively skewed. A similar picture emerges from the coskewness factor of Harvey and Siddique (Harvey, C., Siddique, A., 2000a. Conditional skewness in asset pricing models tests. Journal of Finance 65, 1263–1295.) (a portfolio that is long stocks with small coskewness with the market and short high coskewness stocks) which earns 5.00% annually when the market is positively skewed but only 2.81% when the market is negatively skewed. The conditional two-moment CAPM and a conditional Fama and French (Fama, E., French, K., 1992. The cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance 47,427465.) three-factor model are rejected, but a model which includes coskewness is not rejected by the data. The model also passes a structural break test which many existing asset pricing models fail.

NSW rural land performance : 1990-2008

The annual income return for rural property is based on two major factors being commodity prices and production yields. Commodity prices paid to rural producers can vary depending on the agricultural policies of their respective countries. Free trade countries, such as Australia and New Zealand are subject to the volatility of the world commodity markets to a greater extent than those farmers in protected or subsidised markets. In countries where rural production is protected or subsidised the annual income received by rural producers has been relatively stable. However, the high cost of agricultural protection is now being questioned, particularly in relation to the increasing economic costs of government services such as health, education and housing. When combined with the agricultural production limitations of climate, topography, chemical residues and disease issues, the impact of commodity prices on rural property income is crucial in the ability of rural producers to enter into or expand their holdings in agricultural land. These problems are then reflected in the volatility of the rural land capital returns and the investment performance of this property class. This paper will address the total and capital return performance of a major agricultural area and compare these returns on the basis of both location of land and land use. The comparison will be used to determine if location or actual land use has a greater influence on rural property capital returns. This performance analysis is based on over 35,000 rural sales transactions. These transactions cover all market based rural property transactions in New South Wales, Australia for the period January 1990 to December 2008. Correlation analysis and investment performance analysis has also been carried out to determine the possible relationships between location and land use and subsequent changes in rural land capital values.

Implicit discount rates and fisheries management : is there a relationship?

Fishers are faced with multiple risks, including unpredictability of future catch rates, prices and costs. While the latter are largely beyond the control of fisheries managers, effective fisheries management should reduce uncertainty about future catches. Different management instruments are likely to have different impacts on the risk perception of fishers, and this should manifest itself in their implicit discount rate. Assuming licence and quota values represent the net present value of the flow of expected future profits, then a proxy for the implicit discount rate of vessels in a fishery can be derived by the ratio of the average level of profits to the average licence/quota value. From this, an indication of the risk perception can be derived, assuming higher discount rates reflect higher levels of systematic risk. In this paper, we apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the risk premium implicit in the discount rates for a range of Australian fisheries, and compare this with the set of management instruments in place. We test the assumption that rights based management instruments lower perceptions of risk in fisheries. We find little evidence to support this assumption. although the analysis was based on only limited data.

The domestic kitchen : the weak link in the food chain : is convenience leading to apathy?

To investigate the meaning and understanding of domestic food preparation within the lived experience of the household's main food preparer this ethnographic study used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Data were collected from three sources: the literature; an in-store survey of251 food shoppers chosen at random while shopping during both peak and off peak shopping periods at metropolitan supermarkets; and semi-structured interviews with the principal food shopper and food preparer of 15 different Brisbane households. Male and female respondents representing a cross section of socio-economic groupings, ranged in age from 19-79 years and were all from English speaking backgrounds. Changes in paid labour force participation, income and education have increased the value of the respondents' time, instigating massive changes in the way they shop, cook and eat. Much of their food preparation has moved from the domestic kitchen into the kitchens of other food establishments. For both sexes, the dominant motivating force behind these changes is a combination of the their self perceived lack of culinary skill; lack of enjoyment of cooking and lack of motivation to cook. The females in paid employment emphasise all factors, particularly the latter two, significantly more than the non-employed females. All factors are of increasing importance for individuals aged less than 35 years and conversely, of significantly diminished importance to older respondents. Overall, it is the respondents aged less than 25 years who indicate the lowest cooking frequency and/or least cooking ability. Inherent in this latter group is an indifference to the art/practice of preparing food. Increasingly, all respondents want to do less cooking and/or get the cooking over with as quickly as possible. Convenience is a powerful lure by which to spend less time in the kitchen. As well, there is an apparent willingness to pay a premium for convenience. Because children today are increasingly unlikely to be taught to cook, addressing the food skills deficit and encouraging individuals to cook for themselves are significant issues confronting health educators. These issues are suggested as appropriate subjects of future research.

Governance in the Australian superannuation industry

In the Superannuation/Pension industry ordinary investors entrust their retirement savings to the trustees of the superannuation plan. Investors rely on the trustees to ensure ethical business and risk management practices are implemented to protect their retirement savings. Governance practices ensure the monitoring of ethical risk management (Drennan, 2004). The Australian superannuation industry presents a unique scenario. Legislation requires employers to contribute a minimum of 9% of the employees wage to retirement savings. However, there are no legislated governance standards, although there are standards of recommended governance practices. In this paper, we examine the level of voluntary adoption of governance practices by the trustees of Australian public sector and industry superannuation funds. We also assess whether superannuation governance practices are associated with performance and volatility/riskiness of returns. Survey results show that the majority of superannuation plans adopt recommended governance practices supporting the concept of ethical management of the member’s retirement savings. The examination of governance principles that impact returns and risk show that board size and regular review of conflicts are positively associated with return. Superannuation plans with higher volatility in returns meet more frequently.

Who benefits from marriage?

The phenomenon that married men earn higher average wages than unmarried men, the so-called marriage premium, is well known. However, the robustness of the marriage premium across the wage distribution and the underlying causes of the marriage premium deserve closer scrutiny. Focusing on the entire wage distribution and employing recently developed semi-nonparametric tests for quantile treatment effects, our findings cast doubt on the robustness of the premium. We find that the premium is explained by selection above the median, whereas a positive premium is obtained only at very low wages. We argue that the causal effect at low wages is probably attributable to employer discrimination.

The role of sulphates and organic vapours in growth of newly formed particles in a eucalypt forest

The influence of biogenic particle formation on climate is a well recognised phenomenon. To understand the mechanisms underlying the biogenic particle formation, determining the chemical composition of the new particles and therefore the species that drive the particle production is of utmost importance. Due to the very small amount of mass involved, indirect approaches are frequently used to infer the composition. We present here the results of such an indirect approach by simultaneously measuring volatile and hygroscopic properties of newly formed particles in a forest environment. It is shown that the particles are composed of both sulphates and organics, with the amount of sulphate component strongly depending on the available gas-phase sulphuric acid, and the organic components having the same volatility and hygroscopicity as photooxidation products of a monoterpene such as α-pinene. Our findings agree with a two-step process through nucleation and cluster formation followed by simultaneous growth by condensation of sulphates and organics that take the particles to climatically relevant sizes.

The organic fraction of bubble-generated, accumulation mode Sea Spray Aerosol (SSA)

Recent studies have detected a dominant accumulation mode (~100 nm) in the Sea Spray Aerosol (SSA) number distribution. There is evidence to suggest that particles in this mode are composed primarily of organics. To investigate this hypothesis we conducted experiments on NaCl, artificial SSA and natural SSA particles with a Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem-Differential-Mobility-Analyser (VH-TDMA). NaCl particles were atomiser generated and a bubble generator was constructed to produce artificial and natural SSA particles. Natural seawater samples for use in the bubble generator were collected from biologically active, terrestrially-affected coastal water in Moreton Bay, Australia. Differences in the VH-TDMA-measured volatility curves of artificial and natural SSA particles were used to investigate and quantify the organic fraction of natural SSA particles. Hygroscopic Growth Factor (HGF) data, also obtained by the VH-TDMA, were used to confirm the conclusions drawn from the volatility data. Both datasets indicated that the organic fraction of our natural SSA particles evaporated in the VH-TDMA over the temperature range 170–200°C. The organic volume fraction for 71–77 nm natural SSA particles was 8±6%. Organic volume fraction did not vary significantly with varying water residence time (40 secs to 24 hrs) in the bubble generator or SSA particle diameter in the range 38–173 nm. At room temperature we measured shape- and Kelvin-corrected HGF at 90% RH of 2.46±0.02 for NaCl, 2.35±0.02 for artifical SSA and 2.26±0.02 for natural SSA particles. Overall, these results suggest that the natural accumulation mode SSA particles produced in these experiments contained only a minor organic fraction, which had little effect on hygroscopic growth. Our measurement of 8±6% is an order of magnitude below two previous measurements of the organic fraction in SSA particles of comparable sizes. We stress that our results were obtained using coastal seawater and they can’t necessarily be applied on a regional or global ocean scale. Nevertheless, considering the order of magnitude discrepancy between this and previous studies, further research with independent measurement techniques and a variety of different seawaters is required to better quantify how much organic material is present in accumulation mode SSA.

Observation of the suppression of water uptake by marine particles

A 4 week intensive measurement campaign was conducted in March–April 2007 at Agnes Water, a remote coastal site on the east coast of Australia. A Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was used to investigate changes in the hygroscopic properties of ambient particles as volatile components were progressively evaporated. Nine out of 18 VH-TDMA volatility scans detected internally mixed multi-component particles in the nucleation and Aitken modes in clean marine air. Evaporation of a volatile, organic-like component in the VH-TDMA caused significant increases in particle hygroscopicity. In 3 scans the increase in hygroscopicity was so large it was explained by an increase in the absolute volume of water uptake by the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicates the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). This observation was supported by ZSR calculations for one scan, which showed that the measured growth factors of mixed particles were up to 18% below those predicted assuming independent water uptake of the individual particle components. The observed suppression of water uptake could be due to a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth caused by the presence of organic films or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity.

Freeway traffic estimation in Beijing based on particle filter

Short-term traffic flow data is characterized by rapid and dramatic fluctuations. It reflects the nature of the frequent congestion in the lane, which shows a strong nonlinear feature. Traffic state estimation based on the data gained by electronic sensors is critical for much intelligent traffic management and the traffic control. In this paper, a solution to freeway traffic estimation in Beijing is proposed using a particle filter, based on macroscopic traffic flow model, which estimates both traffic density and speed.Particle filter is a nonlinear prediction method, which has obvious advantages for traffic flows prediction. However, with the increase of sampling period, the volatility of the traffic state curve will be much dramatic. Therefore, the prediction accuracy will be affected and difficulty of forecasting is raised. In this paper, particle filter model is applied to estimate the short-term traffic flow. Numerical study is conducted based on the Beijing freeway data with the sampling period of 2 min. The relatively high accuracy of the results indicates the superiority of the proposed model.

The nature of pedagogic teacher-student interactions : a phenomenographic study

Globally, teaching has become more complex and more challenging over recent years, with new and increased demands being placed on teachers by students, their families, governments and wider society. Teachers work with more diverse communities in times characterised by volatility, uncertainty and moral ambiguity. Societal, political, economic and cultural shifts have transformed the contexts in which teachers work and have redefined the ways in which teachers interact with students. This qualitative study uses phenomenographic methods to explore the nature of pedagogic teacherstudent interactions. The data analysis reveals five qualitatively different ways in which teachers experience pedagogic engagements with students. The resultant categories of description ranged from information providing, with teachers viewed as transmitters of a body of knowledge through to mentoring in which teachers were perceived as significant others in the lives of students with their influence extending beyond the walls of the classroom and beyond the years of schooling. The paper concludes by arguing that if teachers are to prepare students for the challenges and opportunities in changing times, teacher education programs need to consider ways to facilitate the development of mentoring capacities in new teachers.