Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Glutamate and nitric oxide as regulatory transmitters in developing rabbit retina

Glutamate is the major excitatory neurotransmitter in the retina and serves as the synaptic messenger for the three classes of neurons which constitute the vertical pathway--the photoreceptors, bipolar cells and ganglion cells. In addition, the glutamate system has been localized morphologically, pharmacologically as well as molecularly during the first postnatal week of development before synaptogenesis occurs. The role which glutamate plays in the maturing visual system is complex but ranges from mediating developmental neurotoxicity to inducing neurite outgrowth.^ Nitric oxide/cGMP is a novel intercellular messenger which is thought to act in concert with the glutamate system in regulating a variety of cellular processes in the brain as well as retina, most notably neurotoxicity. Several developmental activities including programmed cell death, synapse elimination and synaptic reorganization are possible functions of cellular regulation modulated by nitric oxide as well as glutamate.^ The purpose of this thesis is to (1) biochemically characterize the endogenous pools of glutamate and determine what fraction exists extracellularly; (2) examine the morphological expression of NO producing cells in developing retina; (3) test the functional coupling of the NMDA subtype of glutamate receptor to the NO system by examining neurotoxicity which has roles in both the maturing and adult retina.^ Biochemical sampling of perfusates collected from the photoreceptor surface of ex vivo retina demonstrated that although the total pool of glutamate present at birth is relatively modest, a high percentage resides in extracellular pools. As a result, immature neurons without significant synaptic connections survive and develop in a highly glutamatergic environment which has been shown to be toxic in the adult retina.^ The interaction of the glutamate system with the NO system has been postulated to regulate neuronal survival. We therefore examined the developmental expression of the enzyme responsible for producing NO, nitric oxide synthase (NOS), using an antibody to the constitutive form of NOS found in the brain. The neurons thought to produce the majority of NO in the adult retina, a subpopulation of widefield amacrine cells, were not immunoreactive until the end of the second postnatal week. However, a unique developmental expression was observed in the ganglion cell layer and developing outer nuclear layer of the retina during the first postnatal week. We postulate NO producing neurons may not be present in a mature configuration therefore permitting neuronal survival in a highly glutamatergic microenvironment and allowing NO to play a development-specific role at this time.^ The next set of experiments constituted a functional test of the hypothesis that the absence of the prototypic NO producing cells in developing retina protects immature neurons against glutamate toxicity. An explant culture system developed in order to examine cellular responses of immature and adult neurons to glutamate toxicity showed that immature neurons were affected by NMDA but were less responsive to NMDA and NO mediated toxicity. In contrast, adult explants exhibited significant NMDA toxicity which was attenuated by NMDA antagonists, 2-amino-5-phosphonovaleric acid (APV), dextromethorphan (Dex) and N$\rm\sp{G}$-D-methyl arginine (metARG). These results indicated that pan-retinal neurotoxicity via the NMDA receptor and/or NO activation occurred in the adult retina but was not significant in the neonate. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Photopic and scotopic spatiotemporal tuning of adult zebrafish vision.

Sensitivity to spatial and temporal patterns is a fundamental aspect of vision. Herein, we investigated this sensitivity in adult zebrafish for a wide range of spatial (0.014 to 0.511 cycles/degree [c/d]) and temporal frequencies (0.025 to 6 cycles/s) to better understand their visual system. Measurements were performed at photopic (1.8 log cd m(-2)) and scotopic (-4.5 log cd m(-2)) light levels to assess the optokinetic response (OKR). The resulting spatiotemporal contrast sensitivity (CS) functions revealed that the OKR of zebrafish is tuned to spatial frequency and speed but not to temporal frequencies. Thereby, optimal test parameters for CS measurements were identified. At photopic light levels, a spatial frequency of 0.116 ± 0.01 c/d (mean ± SD) and a grating speed of 8.42 ± 2.15 degrees/second (d/s) was ideal; at scotopic light levels, these values were 0.110 ± 0.02 c/d and 5.45 ± 1.31 d/s, respectively. This study allows to better characterize zebrafish mutants with altered vision and to distinguish between defects of rod and cone photoreceptors as measurements were performed under different light conditions.

Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions

Major volcanic eruptions generate widespread ocean cooling, which reduces upper ocean stratification. This effect has the potential to increase nutrient delivery into the euphotic zone and boost biological productivity. Using externally forced last millennium simulations of three climate/Earth System models (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Community Earth System Model (CESM), and LOch-Vecode-Ecbilt-CLio-agIsm Model (LOVECLIM)), we test the hypothesis that large volcanic eruptions intensify nutrient-driven export production. It is found that strong volcanic radiative forcing enhances the likelihood of eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming in CESM and LOVECLIM. This leads to an initial reduction of nutrients and export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, this initial response reverses after about 3 years in association with La Niña cooling. The resulting delayed enhancement of biological production resembles the multiyear response in MIROC. The model simulations show that volcanic impacts on tropical Pacific dynamics and biogeochemistry persist for several years, thus providing a new source for potential multiyear ecosystem predictability.

Detecting single-target changes in multiple object tracking: The case of peripheral vision

In the current study it is investigated whether peripheral vision can be used to monitor multi-ple moving objects and to detect single-target changes. For this purpose, in Experiment 1, a modified MOT setup with a large projection and a constant-position centroid phase had to be checked first. Classical findings regarding the use of a virtual centroid to track multiple ob-jects and the dependency of tracking accuracy on target speed could be successfully replicat-ed. Thereafter, the main experimental variations regarding the manipulation of to-be-detected target changes could be introduced in Experiment 2. In addition to a button press used for the detection task, gaze behavior was assessed using an integrated eye-tracking system. The anal-ysis of saccadic reaction times in relation to the motor response shows that peripheral vision is naturally used to detect motion and form changes in MOT because the saccade to the target occurred after target-change offset. Furthermore, for changes of comparable task difficulties, motion changes are detected better by peripheral vision than form changes. Findings indicate that capabilities of the visual system (e.g., visual acuity) affect change detection rates and that covert-attention processes may be affected by vision-related aspects like spatial uncertainty. Moreover, it is argued that a centroid-MOT strategy might reduce the amount of saccade-related costs and that eye-tracking seems to be generally valuable to test predictions derived from theories on MOT. Finally, implications for testing covert attention in applied settings are proposed.

A study of the determinants of the utilization of preventive health care service among Chicanos

This study examines the individual and health care system determinants of two types of preventive health care practice behaviors, having a routine physical exam or a preventive dental exam, in the past year among Chicanos in the Southwestern United States. The study utilizes the Health System Model, developed by Aday and Andersen in 1974, to analyze the relative effect of education, income and occupation on the use of discretionary health care, controlling for other individual and health care system determinants.^ The study is based on a sample of 4,111 Mexican origin adults, drawn from the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HHANES). This sample is representative of Mexican American residing in the Southwestern United States.^ The study tests the hypothesis that education is the most important social class predictor of preventive health care practice behavior. The fully elaborated model tests the hypothesis that individual determinants alone are insufficient to explain the use of preventive health care services among Chicanos.^ The study found that education and income are statistically significant social class indicators only as it relates to having a preventive dental exam. Education is not the most important social class predictor of either preventive health care practice behavior. Health care system determinants are key predictors of both behaviors. Need, as measured by self-perceived health status of teeth and gender, is as important a determinant as having dental insurance coverage as it relates to having a preventive dental exam. Implications for health programs to effectively reach Chicano target groups and remove access barriers to their use of discretionary health care services are discussed. ^

Sedimentological and benthic foraminiferal data pertaining to ODP Holes 208-1262A and 208-1263C

Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) occurred ~1.8 Myr after the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and, like the PETM, was characterized by a negative carbon isotope excursion coupled with warming. We combined benthic foraminiferal and sedimentological records for Southeast Atlantic Sites 1263 (1500 m paleodepth) and 1262 (3600 m paleodepth) to show that benthic foraminiferal diversity and accumulation rates declined more precipitously and severely at the shallower site during peak ETM2. The sites are in close proximity, so differences in surface productivity cannot have caused this differential effect. Instead, on the basis of an analysis of climate modelling experiments, we infer that changes in ocean circulation pattern across ETM2 may have resulted in more pronounced warming at intermediate depths (Site 1263). The effects of more pronounced warming include increased metabolic rates, leading to a decrease in effective food supply and increased deoxygenation, thus potentially explaining the more severe benthic impacts at Site 1263. In response to more severe benthic disturbance, bioturbation may have decreased at Site 1263 as compared to Site 1262, hence differentially affecting the bulk carbonate record. We use a sediment-enabled Earth system model to test whether a reduction in bioturbation and/or the likely reduced carbonate saturation of more poorly ventilated waters can explain the more extreme excursion in bulk d13C and sharper transition in wt% CaCO3 at Site 1263. We find that both enhanced acidification and reduced bioturbation during peak ELMO conditions are needed to account for the observed features. Our combined ecological and modelling analysis illustrates the potential role of ocean circulation changes in amplifying local environmental changes and driving temporary, but drastic, loss of benthic biodiversity and abundance.

Sea surface temperatures during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic (N = 28) or planktonic (N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3-6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties >1 °C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.

Deep water formation in the North Pacific and deglacial CO2 rise

Deep water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is widely thought to influence deglacial CO2 rise and climate change; here we suggest that deep water formation in the North Pacific may also play an important role. We present paired radiocarbon and boron isotope data from foraminifera from sediment core MD02-2489 at 3640 m in the North East Pacific. These show a pronounced excursion during Heinrich Stadial 1, with benthic-planktic radiocarbon offsets dropping to ~350 years, accompanied by a decrease in benthic d11B. We suggest this is driven by the onset of deep convection in the North Pacific, which mixes young shallow waters to depth, old deep waters to the surface, and low-pH water from intermediate depths into the deep ocean. This deep water formation event was likely driven by an increase in surface salinity, due to subdued atmospheric/monsoonal freshwater flux during Heinrich Stadial 1. The ability of North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) formation to explain the excursions seen in our data is demonstrated in a series of experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth system model. These experiments also show that breakdown of stratification in the North Pacific leads to a rapid ~30 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2, along with decreases in atmospheric d13C and D14C, consistent with observations of the early deglaciation. Our inference of deep water formation is based mainly on results from a single sediment core, and our boron isotope data are unavoidably sparse in the key HS1 interval, so this hypothesis merits further testing. However we note that there is independent support for breakdown of stratification in shallower waters during this period, including a minimum in d15N, younging in intermediate water 14C, and regional warming. We also re-evaluate deglacial changes in North Pacific productivity and carbonate preservation in light of our new data, and suggest that the regional pulse of export production observed during the Bølling-Allerød is promoted by relatively stratified conditions, with increased light availability and a shallow, potent nutricline. Overall, our work highlights the potential of NPDW formation to play a significant and hitherto unrealized role in deglacial climate change and CO2 rise.

Pollen analyses of sediment core GeoB9508-5

Millennial-scale dry events in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions during the last Glacial period are commonly attributed to southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated with an intensification of the northeasterly (NE) trade wind system during intervals of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Through the use of high-resolution last deglaciation pollen records from the continental slope off Senegal, our data show that one of the longest and most extreme droughts in the western Sahel history, which occurred during the North Atlantic Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), displayed a succession of three major phases. These phases progressed from an interval of maximum pollen representation of Saharan elements between ~19 and 17.4 kyr BP indicating the onset of aridity and intensified NE trade winds, followed by a millennial interlude of reduced input of Saharan pollen and increased input of Sahelian pollen, to a final phase between ~16.2 and 15 kyr BP that was characterized by a second maximum of Saharan pollen abundances. This change in the pollen assemblage indicates a mid-HS1 interlude of NE trade wind relaxation, occurring between two distinct trade wind maxima, along with an intensified mid-tropospheric African Easterly Jet (AEJ) indicating a substantial change in West African atmospheric processes. The pollen data thus suggest that although the NE trades have weakened, the Sahel drought remained severe during this time interval. Therefore, a simple strengthening of trade winds and a southward shift of the West African monsoon trough alone cannot fully explain millennial-scale Sahel droughts during periods of AMOC weakening. Instead, we suggest that an intensification of the AEJ is needed to explain the persistence of the drought during HS1. Simulations with the Community Climate System Model indicate that an intensified AEJ during periods of reduced AMOC affected the North African climate by enhancing moisture divergence over the West African realm, thereby extending the Sahel drought for about 4000 years.