Dynamic effect of high speed railway traffic loads on the ballast track settlement

The traditional ballast track structures are still being used in high speed railways lines with success, however technical problems or performance features have led to non-ballast track solution in some cases. A considerable maintenance work is needed for ballasted tracks due to the track deterioration. Therefore it is very important to understand the mechanism of track deterioration and to predict the track settlement or track irregularity growth rate in order to reduce track maintenance costs and enable new track structures to be designed. The objective of this work is to develop the most adequate and efficient models for calculation of dynamic traffic load effects on railways track infrastructure, and then evaluate the dynamic effect on the ballast track settlement, using a ballast track settlement prediction model, which consists of the vehicle/track dynamic model previously selected and a track settlement law. The calculations are based on dynamic finite element models with direct time integration, contact between wheel and rail and interaction with railway cars. A initial irregularity profile is used in the prediction model. The track settlement law is considered to be a function of number of loading cycles and the magnitude of the loading, which represents the long-term behavior of ballast settlement. The results obtained include the track irregularity growth and the contact force in the final interaction of numerical simulation

On the efficiency of a dedicated LMA for multicast traffic distribution in PMIPv6 domains

IP multicast allows the efficient support of group communication services by reducing the number of IP flows needed for such communication. The increasing generalization in the use of multicast has also triggered the need for supporting IP multicast in mobile environments. Proxy Mobile IPv6 (PMIPv6) is a network-based mobility management solution, where the functionality to support the terminal movement resides in the network. Recently, a baseline solution has been adopted for multicast support in PMIPv6. Such base solution has inefficiencies in multicast routing because it may require multiple copies of a single stream to be received by the same access gateway. Nevertheless, there is an alternative solution to support multicast in PMIPv6 that avoids this issue. This paper evaluates by simulation the scalability of both solutions under realistic conditions, and provides an analysis of the sensitivity of the two proposals against a number of parameters.

Dynamic Analysis of high Speed Railway Traffic Loads on Ballasted Track

This paper reports the studies carried out to develop and calibrate the optimal models for the objectives of this work. In particular, quarter bogie model for vehicle, rail-wheel contact with Lagrangian multiplier method, 2D spatial discretization were selected as the optimal decisions. Furthermore, the 3D model of coupled vehicle-track also has been developed to contrast the results obtained in the 2D model. The calculations were carried out in the time domain and envelopes of relevant results were obtained for several track profiles and speed ranges. Distributed elevation irregularities were generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions. The results obtained include the wheel-rail contact forces, forces transmitted to the bogie by primary suspension. The latter loads are relevant for the purpose of evaluating the performance of the infrastructure

Ultrasonic sensors in urban traffic driving-aid systems

Currently, vehicles are often equipped with active safety systems to reduce the risk of accidents, most of which occur in urban environments. The most prominent include Antilock Braking Systems (ABS), Traction Control and Stability Control. All these systems use different kinds of sensors to constantly monitor the conditions of the vehicle, and act in an emergency. In this paper the use of ultrasonic sensors in active safety systems for urban traffic is proposed, and the advantages and disadvantages when compared to other sensors are discussed. Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) for urban traffic based on ultrasounds is presented as an application example. The proposed system has been implemented in a fully-automated prototype vehicle and has been tested under real traffic conditions. The results confirm the good performance of ultrasonic sensors in these systems. ©2011 by the authors.

Applications for wireless sensor networks : tracking with binary proximity sensors

El interés cada vez mayor por las redes de sensores inalámbricos pueden ser entendido simplemente pensando en lo que esencialmente son: un gran número de pequeños nodos sensores autoalimentados que recogen información o detectan eventos especiales y se comunican de manera inalámbrica, con el objetivo final de entregar sus datos procesados a una estación base. Los nodos sensores están densamente desplegados dentro del área de interés, se pueden desplegar al azar y tienen capacidad de cooperación. Por lo general, estos dispositivos son pequeños y de bajo costo, de modo que pueden ser producidos y desplegados en gran numero aunque sus recursos en términos de energía, memoria, velocidad de cálculo y ancho de banda están enormemente limitados. Detección, tratamiento y comunicación son tres elementos clave cuya combinación en un pequeño dispositivo permite lograr un gran número de aplicaciones. Las redes de sensores proporcionan oportunidades sin fin, pero al mismo tiempo plantean retos formidables, tales como lograr el máximo rendimiento de una energía que es escasa y por lo general un recurso no renovable. Sin embargo, los recientes avances en la integración a gran escala, integrado de hardware de computación, comunicaciones, y en general, la convergencia de la informática y las comunicaciones, están haciendo de esta tecnología emergente una realidad. Del mismo modo, los avances en la nanotecnología están empezando a hacer que todo gire entorno a las redes de pequeños sensores y actuadores distribuidos. Hay diferentes tipos de sensores tales como sensores de presión, acelerómetros, cámaras, sensores térmicos o un simple micrófono. Supervisan las condiciones presentes en diferentes lugares tales como la temperatura, humedad, el movimiento, la luminosidad, presión, composición del suelo, los niveles de ruido, la presencia o ausencia de ciertos tipos de objetos, los niveles de tensión mecánica sobre objetos adheridos y las características momentáneas tales como la velocidad , la dirección y el tamaño de un objeto, etc. Se comprobara el estado de las Redes Inalámbricas de Sensores y se revisaran los protocolos más famosos. Así mismo, se examinara la identificación por radiofrecuencia (RFID) ya que se está convirtiendo en algo actual y su presencia importante. La RFID tiene un papel crucial que desempeñar en el futuro en el mundo de los negocios y los individuos por igual. El impacto mundial que ha tenido la identificación sin cables está ejerciendo fuertes presiones en la tecnología RFID, los servicios de investigación y desarrollo, desarrollo de normas, el cumplimiento de la seguridad y la privacidad y muchos más. Su potencial económico se ha demostrado en algunos países mientras que otros están simplemente en etapas de planificación o en etapas piloto, pero aun tiene que afianzarse o desarrollarse a través de la modernización de los modelos de negocio y aplicaciones para poder tener un mayor impacto en la sociedad. Las posibles aplicaciones de redes de sensores son de interés para la mayoría de campos. La monitorización ambiental, la guerra, la educación infantil, la vigilancia, la micro-cirugía y la agricultura son solo unos pocos ejemplos de los muchísimos campos en los que tienen cabida las redes mencionadas anteriormente. Estados Unidos de América es probablemente el país que más ha investigado en esta área por lo que veremos muchas soluciones propuestas provenientes de ese país. Universidades como Berkeley, UCLA (Universidad de California, Los Ángeles) Harvard y empresas como Intel lideran dichas investigaciones. Pero no solo EE.UU. usa e investiga las redes de sensores inalámbricos. La Universidad de Southampton, por ejemplo, está desarrollando una tecnología para monitorear el comportamiento de los glaciares mediante redes de sensores que contribuyen a la investigación fundamental en glaciología y de las redes de sensores inalámbricos. Así mismo, Coalesenses GmbH (Alemania) y Zurich ETH están trabajando en diversas aplicaciones para redes de sensores inalámbricos en numerosas áreas. Una solución española será la elegida para ser examinada más a fondo por ser innovadora, adaptable y polivalente. Este estudio del sensor se ha centrado principalmente en aplicaciones de tráfico, pero no se puede olvidar la lista de más de 50 aplicaciones diferentes que ha sido publicada por la firma creadora de este sensor específico. En la actualidad hay muchas tecnologías de vigilancia de vehículos, incluidos los sensores de bucle, cámaras de video, sensores de imagen, sensores infrarrojos, radares de microondas, GPS, etc. El rendimiento es aceptable, pero no suficiente, debido a su limitada cobertura y caros costos de implementación y mantenimiento, especialmente este ultimo. Tienen defectos tales como: línea de visión, baja exactitud, dependen mucho del ambiente y del clima, no se puede realizar trabajos de mantenimiento sin interrumpir las mediciones, la noche puede condicionar muchos de ellos, tienen altos costos de instalación y mantenimiento, etc. Por consiguiente, en las aplicaciones reales de circulación, los datos recibidos son insuficientes o malos en términos de tiempo real debido al escaso número de detectores y su costo. Con el aumento de vehículos en las redes viales urbanas las tecnologías de detección de vehículos se enfrentan a nuevas exigencias. Las redes de sensores inalámbricos son actualmente una de las tecnologías más avanzadas y una revolución en la detección de información remota y en las aplicaciones de recogida. Las perspectivas de aplicación en el sistema inteligente de transporte son muy amplias. Con este fin se ha desarrollado un programa de localización de objetivos y recuento utilizando una red de sensores binarios. Esto permite que el sensor necesite mucha menos energía durante la transmisión de información y que los dispositivos sean más independientes con el fin de tener un mejor control de tráfico. La aplicación se centra en la eficacia de la colaboración de los sensores en el seguimiento más que en los protocolos de comunicación utilizados por los nodos sensores. Las operaciones de salida y retorno en las vacaciones son un buen ejemplo de por qué es necesario llevar la cuenta de los coches en las carreteras. Para ello se ha desarrollado una simulación en Matlab con el objetivo localizar objetivos y contarlos con una red de sensores binarios. Dicho programa se podría implementar en el sensor que Libelium, la empresa creadora del sensor que se examinara concienzudamente, ha desarrollado. Esto permitiría que el aparato necesitase mucha menos energía durante la transmisión de información y los dispositivos sean más independientes. Los prometedores resultados obtenidos indican que los sensores de proximidad binarios pueden formar la base de una arquitectura robusta para la vigilancia de áreas amplias y para el seguimiento de objetivos. Cuando el movimiento de dichos objetivos es suficientemente suave, no tiene cambios bruscos de trayectoria, el algoritmo ClusterTrack proporciona un rendimiento excelente en términos de identificación y seguimiento de trayectorias los objetos designados como blancos. Este algoritmo podría, por supuesto, ser utilizado para numerosas aplicaciones y se podría seguir esta línea de trabajo para futuras investigaciones. No es sorprendente que las redes de sensores de binarios de proximidad hayan atraído mucha atención últimamente ya que, a pesar de la información mínima de un sensor de proximidad binario proporciona, las redes de este tipo pueden realizar un seguimiento de todo tipo de objetivos con la precisión suficiente. Abstract The increasing interest in wireless sensor networks can be promptly understood simply by thinking about what they essentially are: a large number of small sensing self-powered nodes which gather information or detect special events and communicate in a wireless fashion, with the end goal of handing their processed data to a base station. The sensor nodes are densely deployed inside the phenomenon, they deploy random and have cooperative capabilities. Usually these devices are small and inexpensive, so that they can be produced and deployed in large numbers, and so their resources in terms of energy, memory, computational speed and bandwidth are severely constrained. Sensing, processing and communication are three key elements whose combination in one tiny device gives rise to a vast number of applications. Sensor networks provide endless opportunities, but at the same time pose formidable challenges, such as the fact that energy is a scarce and usually non-renewable resource. However, recent advances in low power Very Large Scale Integration, embedded computing, communication hardware, and in general, the convergence of computing and communications, are making this emerging technology a reality. Likewise, advances in nanotechnology and Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems are pushing toward networks of tiny distributed sensors and actuators. There are different sensors such as pressure, accelerometer, camera, thermal, and microphone. They monitor conditions at different locations, such as temperature, humidity, vehicular movement, lightning condition, pressure, soil makeup, noise levels, the presence or absence of certain kinds of objects, mechanical stress levels on attached objects, the current characteristics such as speed, direction and size of an object, etc. The state of Wireless Sensor Networks will be checked and the most famous protocols reviewed. As Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is becoming extremely present and important nowadays, it will be examined as well. RFID has a crucial role to play in business and for individuals alike going forward. The impact of ‘wireless’ identification is exerting strong pressures in RFID technology and services research and development, standards development, security compliance and privacy, and many more. The economic value is proven in some countries while others are just on the verge of planning or in pilot stages, but the wider spread of usage has yet to take hold or unfold through the modernisation of business models and applications. Possible applications of sensor networks are of interest to the most diverse fields. Environmental monitoring, warfare, child education, surveillance, micro-surgery, and agriculture are only a few examples. Some real hardware applications in the United States of America will be checked as it is probably the country that has investigated most in this area. Universities like Berkeley, UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles) Harvard and enterprises such as Intel are leading those investigations. But not just USA has been using and investigating wireless sensor networks. University of Southampton e.g. is to develop technology to monitor glacier behaviour using sensor networks contributing to fundamental research in glaciology and wireless sensor networks. Coalesenses GmbH (Germany) and ETH Zurich are working in applying wireless sensor networks in many different areas too. A Spanish solution will be the one examined more thoroughly for being innovative, adaptable and multipurpose. This study of the sensor has been focused mainly to traffic applications but it cannot be forgotten the more than 50 different application compilation that has been published by this specific sensor’s firm. Currently there are many vehicle surveillance technologies including loop sensors, video cameras, image sensors, infrared sensors, microwave radar, GPS, etc. The performance is acceptable but not sufficient because of their limited coverage and expensive costs of implementation and maintenance, specially the last one. They have defects such as: line-ofsight, low exactness, depending on environment and weather, cannot perform no-stop work whether daytime or night, high costs for installation and maintenance, etc. Consequently, in actual traffic applications the received data is insufficient or bad in terms of real-time owed to detector quantity and cost. With the increase of vehicle in urban road networks, the vehicle detection technologies are confronted with new requirements. Wireless sensor network is the state of the art technology and a revolution in remote information sensing and collection applications. It has broad prospect of application in intelligent transportation system. An application for target tracking and counting using a network of binary sensors has been developed. This would allow the appliance to spend much less energy when transmitting information and to make more independent devices in order to have a better traffic control. The application is focused on the efficacy of collaborative tracking rather than on the communication protocols used by the sensor nodes. Holiday crowds are a good case in which it is necessary to keep count of the cars on the roads. To this end a Matlab simulation has been produced for target tracking and counting using a network of binary sensors that e.g. could be implemented in Libelium’s solution. Libelium is the enterprise that has developed the sensor that will be deeply examined. This would allow the appliance to spend much less energy when transmitting information and to make more independent devices. The promising results obtained indicate that binary proximity sensors can form the basis for a robust architecture for wide area surveillance and tracking. When the target paths are smooth enough ClusterTrack particle filter algorithm gives excellent performance in terms of identifying and tracking different target trajectories. This algorithm could, of course, be used for different applications and that could be done in future researches. It is not surprising that binary proximity sensor networks have attracted a lot of attention lately. Despite the minimal information a binary proximity sensor provides, networks of these sensing modalities can track all kinds of different targets classes accurate enough.

Detecting Traffic Problems with ILP

Expert systems for decision support have recently been successfully introduced in road transport management. In this paper, we apply three state-of-the art ILP systems to learn how to detect traffic problems.

ILP Experiments in Detecting Traffic Problems

The paper describes experiments in automated acquisition of knowledge in traffic problem detection. Preliminary results show that ILP can be used to successfully learn to detect traffic problems.

Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

Implementation and management of private traffic limitation in urban areas: experiences and methodologies.

This paper shows the results of a research aimed to formulate a general model for supporting the implementation and management of an urban road pricing scheme. After a preliminary work, to define the state of the art in the field of sustainable urban mobility strategies, the problem has been theoretically set up in terms of transport economy, introducing the external costs’ concept duly translated into the principle of pricing for the use of public infrastructures. The research is based on the definition of a set of direct and indirect indicators to qualify the urban areas by land use, mobility, environmental and economic conditions. These indicators have been calculated for a selected set of typical urban areas in Europe on the basis of the results of a survey carried out by means of a specific questionnaire. Once identified the most typical and interesting applications of the road pricing concept in cities such as London (Congestion Charging), Milan (Ecopass), Stockholm (Congestion Tax) and Rome (ZTL), a large benchmarking exercise and the cross analysis of direct and indirect indicators, has allowed to define a simple general model, guidelines and key requirements for the implementation of a pricing scheme based traffic restriction in a generic urban area. The model has been finally applied to the design of a road pricing scheme for a particular area in Madrid, and to the quantification of the expected results of its implementation from a land use, mobility, environmental and economic perspective.

Contribution of the noise radiated by a single vehicle to the road traffic noise

El ruido del tráfico rodado supone aproximadamente la mitad del ruido global ambiental. Las técnicas de control de ruido habitual en emisión (límites de emisión de vehículos) e inmisión (barreras acústicas, doble acristalamiento) no han sido suficientes para disminuir significativamente las molestias por el tráfico rodado en las últimas tres décadas. El efecto positivo de estas técnicas de control ha sido contrarrestado por el aumento de la densidad del tráfico. Por otra parte, la molestia del ruido del tráfico está altamente correlacionada con los niveles máximos de ruido (MNL), producidos por lo general por conductores agresivos. Sin embargo, los sistemas actuales de medición de ruido de tráfico se basan en una valoración global, por lo que no son capaces de discriminar entre los conductores silenciosos y ruidosos. Por lo tanto, en esta tesis se propone un sistema de medida de ruido en el campo cercano, que es capaz de medir la contribución de cada vehículo individual al ruido del tráfico rodado, permitiendo la detección de los conductores ruidosos. Este trabajo describe también una combinación de investigaciones analíticas y experimentales para la identificación de los conductores responsables de la generación de niveles máximos de ruido. El sistema se basa en dos micrófonos embarcados, uno para el ruido del motor y otro para el ruido de rodadura. Con el fin de relacionar estas mediciones de campo cercano con el ruido de los vehículos radiado al campo lejano, se desarrolla un procedimiento completo para la extrapolación del ruido medido por los micrófonos de campo próximo a las posiciones de campo lejano, usando una combinación de predicción analítica y mediciones experimentales. Las correcciones para los niveles extrapolados se deben a factores atmosféricos, al término de divergencia esférica y a las condiciones de absorción de la superficie de propagación. Para el micrófono situado próximo al motor, es necesario también caracterizar las propiedades acústicas del capó del motor. Ambos niveles de ruido se extrapolan de forma independiente a la posición de campo lejano, donde se realiza una comparación entre la predicción y mediciones para confirmar que la metodología es fiable para estimar el impacto a distancia del ruido de tráfico

Comparison of dynamic effects of high-speed traffic load on ballasted track using a simplified two-dimensional and full three-dimensional model.

The vertical dynamic actions transmitted by railway vehicles to the ballasted track infrastructure is evaluated taking into account models with different degree of detail. In particular, we have studied this matter from a two-dimensional (2D) finite element model to a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) multi-body finite element model. The vehicle and track are coupled via a non-linear Hertz contact mechanism. The method of Lagrange multipliers is used for the contact constraint enforcement between wheel and rail. Distributed elevation irregularities are generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions which are taken into account for the interaction. The numerical simulations are performed in the time domain, using a direct integration method for solving the transient problem due to the contact nonlinearities. The results obtained include contact forces, forces transmitted to the infrastructure (sleeper) by railpads and envelopes of relevant results for several track irregularities and speed ranges. The main contribution of this work is to identify and discuss coincidences and differences between discrete 2D models and continuum 3D models, as wheel as assessing the validity of evaluating the dynamic loading on the track with simplified 2D models

Comparasion of road traffic emission models in Madrid (Spain)

Many cities in Europe have difficulties to meet the air quality standards set by the European legislation, most particularly the annual mean Limit Value for NO2. Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas and therefore, there is an increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions as accurately as possible. As a consequence, a number of specific emission models and emission factors databases have been developed recently. They present important methodological differences and may result in largely diverging emission figures and thus may lead to alternative policy recommendations. This study compares two approaches to estimate road traffic emissions in Madrid (Spain): the COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT4 v.8.1) and the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1), representative of the ‘average-speed’ and ‘traffic situation’ model types respectively. The input information (e.g. fleet composition, vehicle kilometres travelled, traffic intensity, road type, etc.) was provided by the traffic model developed by the Madrid City Council along with observations from field campaigns. Hourly emissions were computed for nearly 15 000 road segments distributed in 9 management areas covering the Madrid city and surroundings. Total annual NOX emissions predicted by HBEFA were a 21% higher than those of COPERT. The discrepancies for NO2 were lower (13%) since resulting average NO2/NOX ratios are lower for HBEFA. The larger differences are related to diesel vehicle emissions under “stop & go” traffic conditions, very common in distributor/secondary roads of the Madrid metropolitan area. In order to understand the representativeness of these results, the resulting emissions were integrated in an urban scale inventory used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system (1 km2 resolution). Modelled NO2 concentrations were compared with observations through a series of statistics. Although there are no remarkable differences between both model runs, the results suggest that HBEFA may overestimate traffic emissions. However, the results are strongly influenced by methodological issues and limitations of the traffic model. This study was useful to provide a first alternative estimate to the official emission inventory in Madrid and to identify the main features of the traffic model that should be improved to support the application of an emission system based on “real world” emission factors.

Sustainable Air Traffic Management System Development Methodology

As it is defined in ATM 2000+ Strategy (Eurocontrol 2001), the mission of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) System is: “For all the phases of a flight, the ATM system should facilitate a safe, efficient, and expedite traffic flow, through the provision of adaptable ATM services that can be dimensioned in relation to the requirements of all the users and areas of the European air space. The ATM services should comply with the demand, be compatible, operate under uniform principles, respect the environment and satisfy the national security requirements.” The objective of this paper is to present a methodology designed to evaluate the status of the ATM system in terms of the relationship between the offered capacity and traffic demand, identifying weakness areas and proposing solutions. The first part of the methodology relates to the characterization and evaluation of the current system, while a second part proposes an approach to analyze the possible development limit. As part of the work, general criteria are established to define the framework in which the analysis and diagnostic methodology presented is placed. They are: the use of Air Traffic Control (ATC) sectors as analysis unit, the presence of network effects, the tactical focus, the relative character of the analysis, objectivity and a high level assessment that allows assumptions on the human and Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) elements, considered as the typical high density air traffic resources. The steps followed by the methodology start with the definition of indicators and metrics, like the nominal criticality or the nominal efficiency of a sector; scenario characterization where the necessary data is collected; network effects analysis to study the relations among the constitutive elements of the ATC system; diagnostic by means of the “System Status Diagram”; analytical study of the ATC system development limit; and finally, formulation of conclusions and proposal for improvement. This methodology was employed by Aena (Spanish Airports Manager and Air Navigation Service Provider) and INECO (Spanish Transport Engineering Company) in the analysis of the Spanish ATM System in the frame of the Spanish airspace capacity sustainability program, although it could be applied elsewhere.

Connexin-43 in the osteogenic BM niche regulates its cellular composition and the bidirectional traffic of hematopoietic stem cells and progenitors

Connexin-43 (Cx43), a gap junction protein involved in control of cell proliferation, differentiation and migration, has been suggested to have a role in hematopoiesis. Cx43 is highly expressed in osteoblasts and osteogenic progenitors (OB/P). To elucidate the biologic function of Cx43 in the hematopoietic microenvironment (HM) and its influence in hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) activity, we studied the hematopoietic function in an in vivo model of constitutive deficiency of Cx43 in OB/P. The deficiency of Cx43 in OB/P cells does not impair the steady state hematopoiesis, but disrupts the directional trafficking of HSC/progenitors (Ps) between the bone marrow (BM) and peripheral blood (PB). OB/P Cx43 is a crucial positive regulator of transstromal migration and homing of both HSCs and progenitors in an irradiated microenvironment. However, OB/P Cx43 deficiency in nonmyeloablated animals does not result in a homing defect but induces increased endosteal lodging and decreased mobilization of HSC/Ps associated with proliferation and expansion of Cxcl12-secreting mesenchymal/osteolineage cells in the BM HM in vivo. Cx43 controls the cellular content of the BM osteogenic microenvironment and is required for homing of HSC/Ps in myeloablated animals

Unit Root Analysis of Traffic Time Series in Toll Highways

Concession contracts in highways often include some kind of clauses (for example, a minimum traffic guarantee) that allow for better management of the business risks. The value of these clauses may be important and should be added to the total value of the concession. However, in these cases, traditional valuation techniques, like the NPV (net present value) of the project, are insufficient. An alternative methodology for the valuation of highway concession is one based on the real options approach. This methodology is generally built on the assumption of the evolution of traffic volume as a GBM (geometric Brownian motion), which is the hypothesis analyzed in this paper. First, a description of the methodology used for the analysis of the existence of unit roots (i.e., the hypothesis of non-stationarity) is provided. The Dickey-Fuller approach has been used, which is the most common test for this kind of analysis. Then this methodology is applied to perform a statistical analysis of traffic series in Spanish toll highways. For this purpose, data on the AADT (annual average daily traffic) on a set of highways have been used. The period of analysis is around thirty years in most cases. The main outcome of the research is that the hypothesis that traffic volume follows a GBM process in Spanish toll highways cannot be rejected. This result is robust, and therefore it can be used as a starting point for the application of the real options theory to assess toll highway concessions.