AN ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL WELL-BEING OF BLACKS AND WHITES

The importance of race as a factor in mental health status has been a topic of controversy. This study reviews the history of research in this area and examines racial variances in the relationship between selected socio-demographic variables and general well-being. The study also examines the appropriateness of an additive versus an interactive statistical model for this investigation.^ The sample consists of 6,913 persons who completed the General Well-Being Schedules as administered in the detailed component of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics between April, 1971 and October, 1975. The sampling design is a multistage, probability sample of clusters of persons in area based segments. Of the 6,913 persons, 873 are Black.^ Unlike other recent community based mental health studies, this study revealed significant differences between the general well-being of Blacks and Whites. Blacks continued to exhibit significantly lower levels of well-being even after adjustments were made for income, education, marital status, sex, age and place of residence. Statistical interaction was found between race and sex with Black females reporting lower levels of well-being than either Black or White males or their White female counterparts.^ The study includes a detailed review of the NHANES I sample design. It is shown that selected aspects of the design make it difficult to render appropriate national comparisons of Black-White differences. As a result conclusions pertaining to these differences based on NHANES I may be of questionable validity. ^

An exploratory analysis of variance and volatility in epileptic electroencephalograms

The electroencephalogram (EEG) is a physiological time series that measures electrical activity at different locations in the brain, and plays an important role in epilepsy research. Exploring the variance and/or volatility may yield insights for seizure prediction, seizure detection and seizure propagation/dynamics.^ Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transforms (MODWTs) and ARMA-GARCH models were used to determine variance and volatility characteristics of 66 channels for different states of an epileptic EEG – sleep, awake, sleep-to-awake and seizure. The wavelet variances, changes in wavelet variances and volatility half-lives for the four states were compared for possible differences between seizure and non-seizure channels.^ The half-lives of two of the three seizure channels were found to be shorter than all of the non-seizure channels, based on 95% CIs for the pre-seizure and awake signals. No discernible patterns were found the wavelet variances of the change points for the different signals. ^

A hybrid method in combining treatment effects from matched and unmatched studies

In the biomedical studies, the general data structures have been the matched (paired) and unmatched designs. Recently, many researchers are interested in Meta-Analysis to obtain a better understanding from several clinical data of a medical treatment. The hybrid design, which is combined two data structures, may create the fundamental question for statistical methods and the challenges for statistical inferences. The applied methods are depending on the underlying distribution. If the outcomes are normally distributed, we would use the classic paired and two independent sample T-tests on the matched and unmatched cases. If not, we can apply Wilcoxon signed rank and rank sum test on each case. ^ To assess an overall treatment effect on a hybrid design, we can apply the inverse variance weight method used in Meta-Analysis. On the nonparametric case, we can use a test statistic which is combined on two Wilcoxon test statistics. However, these two test statistics are not in same scale. We propose the Hybrid Test Statistic based on the Hodges-Lehmann estimates of the treatment effects, which are medians in the same scale.^ To compare the proposed method, we use the classic meta-analysis T-test statistic on the combined the estimates of the treatment effects from two T-test statistics. Theoretically, the efficiency of two unbiased estimators of a parameter is the ratio of their variances. With the concept of Asymptotic Relative Efficiency (ARE) developed by Pitman, we show ARE of the hybrid test statistic relative to classic meta-analysis T-test statistic using the Hodges-Lemann estimators associated with two test statistics.^ From several simulation studies, we calculate the empirical type I error rate and power of the test statistics. The proposed statistic would provide effective tool to evaluate and understand the treatment effect in various public health studies as well as clinical trials.^

Régimen político y gobiernos locales : los municipios en las constituciones de Argentina y Chile : un estudio comparativo

Se presentan los resultados de una investigación de carácter descriptivo, cuyo objetivo ha sido comparar las coincidencias y diferencias de las normas constitucionales de ambos países referidas a los gobiernos locales, para establecer correspondencias con los regimenes políticos (democracia-dictadura) que los originaron. Utilizamos en este caso el método del estudio comparativo entre naciones (cross-national), propuesto por Jördi Cais, según el cual «El análisis entre países es un tipo de análisis comparativo que posee un margen amplio de comparaciones posibles." Se utilizó además el método de análisis de contenido y la exégesis de los textos constitucionales para establecer los términos objeto de comparación. Las conclusiones señalan que las diferencias mas importantes se centran en la amplia potestad reglamentaria que eI texto de la constitución chilena otorga al poder central. Palabras clave: Constitución. Gobierno local. Régimen político. Forma de Estado. Autonomía. Descentralización. Participación.

Genetic diversity among alfalfa genotypes (Medicago sativa L.) of non-dormant cultivars using SSR markers and agronomic traits

The aim of this study was to assess genetic diversity among 40 alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) genotypes of different non-dormant (FD=8) cultivars. Biomass yield, regrowth speed and reaction to spring black stem, lepto leaf spot, and rust were evaluated. Analyses of variances were performed using a mixed model to examine the agronomic variation among individuals. A principal component analysis on standardized agronomic data was performed. Agronomic data were also used to calculate Gower's distance and UPGMA algorithm. For the molecular analysis, six SSR markers were evaluated and 84 alleles were identified. The genetic distance was estimated using standard Nei's distance. Average standard genetic diversity was 0.843, indicating a high degree of variability among genotypes. Finally, a generalized procrustes analysis was performed to calculate the correlation between molecular and agronomic distance, indicating a 65.4% of consensus. This value is likely related to the low number of individuals included in the study, which might have underestimated the real phenotypic variability among genotypes. Despite the low number of individuals and SSR markers analyzed, this study provides a baseline for future diversity studies to identify genetically distant alfalfa individuals or cultivars.

Effects of various pollutant mixtures on immune responses of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) collected at a salinity gradient in Danish coastal waters, links to supplementary material

The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed sea with a steady salinity gradient (3 per mil-30 per mil). Organisms have adapted to such low salinities, but are suspected to be more susceptible to stress. Within the frame of the integrated environmental monitoring BONUS + project "BEAST" the applicability of immune responses of the blue mussel was investigated in Danish coastal waters. The sampling sites were characterised by a salinity range (11-19 per mil) and different mixtures of contaminants (metals, PAHs and POPs), according to chemical analysis of mussel tissues. Variation partitioning (redundancy analysis) was applied to decompose salinity and contamination effects. The results indicated that cellular immune responses (total and differential haemocyte count, phagocytic activity and apoptosis) were mainly influenced by contaminants, whereas humoral factors (haemolytic activity) were mainly impacted by salinity. Hence, cellular immune functions may be suitable as biomarkers in monitoring programmes for the Baltic Sea and other geographic regions with salinity variances of the studied range.

10Be content s of late Cenozoic sediments from ODP Leg 117

This paper is a comparative study of the variation in 10Be content of different late Cenozoic sedimentary environments recovered during ODP Leg 117. The Oman Margin site, Hole 728A, with overlying high-productivity cells, the pelagic Owen Ridge site, Hole 722A, and the Indus Fan site, Hole 720A, each display a specific 10Be distribution with time. Differences in scavenging intensity and upwelling in the water column, must account for the variations in the initial 10Be input into the sediments from Holes 728A and 722A, whereas differences in sediment character and sedimentation rate can explain the variances between Holes 722A, 728A, and 720A.

Narwhal (Monodon monoceros) sightings and population estimates for the Canadian High Arctic 2002-2004

Aerial surveys of narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were conducted in the Canadian High Arctic during the month of August from 2002 to 2004. The surveys covered the waters of Barrow Strait, Prince Regent Inlet, the Gulf of Boothia, Admiralty Inlet, Eclipse Sound, and the eastern coast of Baffin Island, using systematic sampling methods. Fiords were flown along a single transect down the middle. Near-surface population estimates increased by 1.9%-8.7% when corrected for perception bias. The estimates were further increased by a factor of approximately 3, to account for individuals not seen because they were diving when the survey plane flew over (availability bias). These corrections resulted in estimates of 27 656 (SE = 14 939) for the Prince Regent and Gulf of Boothia area, 20 225 (SE = 7285) for the Eclipse Sound area, and 10 073 (SE = 3123) for the East Baffin Island fiord area. The estimate for the Admiralty Inlet area was 5362 (SE = 2681) but is thought to be biased. Surveys could not be done in other known areas of occupation, such as the waters of the Cumberland Peninsula of East Baffin, and channels farther west of the areas surveyed (Peel Sound, Viscount Melville Sound, Smith Sound and Jones Sound, and other channels of the Canadian Arctic archipelago). Despite these probable biases and the incomplete coverage, results of these surveys show that the summering range of narwhals in the Canadian High Arctic is vast. If narwhals are philopatric to their summering areas, as they appear to be, the total population of that range could number more than 60 000 animals. The largest numbers are in the western portion of their summer range, around Somerset Island, and also in the Eclipse Sound area. However, these survey estimates have large variances due to narwhal aggregation in some parts of the surveyed areas.

Single beam survey data and links to sea-bottom video files off Helgoland

Kelp forests represent a major habitat type in coastal waters worldwide and their structure and distribution is predicted to change due to global warming. Despite their ecological and economical importance, there is still a lack of reliable spatial information on their abundance and distribution. In recent years, various hydroacoustic mapping techniques for sublittoral environments evolved. However, in turbid coastal waters, such as off the island of Helgoland (Germany, North Sea), the kelp vegetation is present in shallow water depths normally excluded from hydroacoustic surveys. In this study, single beam survey data consisting of the two seafloor parameters roughness and hardness were obtained with RoxAnn from water depth between 2 and 18 m. Our primary aim was to reliably detect the kelp forest habitat with different densities and distinguish it from other vegetated zones. Five habitat classes were identified using underwater-video and were applied for classification of acoustic signatures. Subsequently, spatial prediction maps were produced via two classification approaches: Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and manual classification routine (MC). LDA was able to distinguish dense kelp forest from other habitats (i.e. mixed seaweed vegetation, sand, and barren bedrock), but no variances in kelp density. In contrast, MC also provided information on medium dense kelp distribution which is characterized by intermediate roughness and hardness values evoked by reduced kelp abundances. The prediction maps reach accordance levels of 62% (LDA) and 68% (MC). The presence of vegetation (kelp and mixed seaweed vegetation) was determined with higher prediction abilities of 75% (LDA) and 76% (MC). Since the different habitat classes reveal acoustic signatures that strongly overlap, the manual classification method was more appropriate for separating different kelp forest densities and low-lying vegetation. It became evident that the occurrence of kelp in this area is not simply linked to water depth. Moreover, this study shows that the two seafloor parameters collected with RoxAnn are suitable indicators for the discrimination of different densely vegetated seafloor habitats in shallow environments.

The third glacier inventory of North Tyrol, Austria, for 2006

A new, third, glacier inventory (GI3) is presented for North Tyrol, which is based on Airborne Laser Scanning for the year 2006. 447 glaciers covering 235 km**2 are included. 4 small, formerly neglected glaciers have been added. Basic quantities such as size, maximum, minimum and median elevation show large variances. Very recent glacier changes between the former inventory (GI2: 1998) and GI3 show a strong reduction in area (-8%) and mean thickness (-7 m). An asymmetry of mean maximum, minimum and median elevation is quantified with approximately 200 m higher values for south-exposed glaciers. Rates of changes are around 1% per year and 1 m per year between GI2 and GI3. The strongest volume losses occurred for glaciers between 5 and 10 km**2.

Methane, helium isotope and hydrogen data from the Nibelungen hydrothermal area, Mid Atlantic Ridge

Hydrothermal emission of mantle helium appears to be directly related to magma production rate, but other processes can generate methane and hydrogen on mid-ocean ridges. In an on-going effort to characterize these processes in the South Atlantic, the flux and distribution of these gases were investigated in the vicinity of a powerful black smoker recently discovered at 8°17.9' S, 13°30.4' W. The vent lies on the shoulder of an oblique offset in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and discharges high concentrations of methane and hydrogen. Measurements during expeditions in 2004 and 2006 show that the ratio of CH4 to 3He in the neutrally buoyant plume is quite high, 4 x 10**8. The CTD stations were accompanied by velocity measurements with lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCP), and from these data we estimate the methane transport to have been 0.5 mol/sec in a WSW-trending plume that seems to develop during the ebb tidal phase. This transport is an order of magnitude greater than the source of CH4 calculated from its concentration in the vent fluid and the rise height of the plume. From this range of methane fluxes, the source of 3He is estimated to be between 0.14 and 1.2 nmol/sec. In either case, the 3He source is significantly lower than expected from the spreading rate of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. From the inventory of methane in the rift valley adjacent to the vent, it appears that the average specific rate of oxidation is 2.6 to 23/yr, corresponding to a turnover time between 140 and 16 days. Vertical profiles of methane in the surrounding region often exhibited Gaussian-like distributions, and the variances appear to increase with distance from the vent. Using a Gaussian plume model, we obtained a range of vertical eddy diffusivities between 0.009 and 0.08 m2m2/sec. These high values may be due to tidally driven internal waves across the promontory on which the vent is located.

Long-term eddy-covariance measurements from FINO2 platform above the Baltic Sea

The estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes above the open ocean plays an important role for the determination of the global carbon cycle. A frequently used method therefore is the eddy-covariance technique, which is based on the theory of the Prandl-layer with height-constant fluxes in the atmospheric boundary layer. To test the assumption of the constant flux layer, in 2008 measurements of turbulent heat and CO2 fluxes were started within the project Surface Ocean Processes in the Anthropocene (SOPRAN) at the research platform FINO2. The FINO2 platform is situated in the South-west of the Baltic Sea, in the tri-border region between Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. In the frame of the Research project SOPRAN, the platform was equipped with additional sensors in June 2008. A combination of 3-component sonic anemometers (USA-1) and open-path infrared gas analyzers for absolute humidity (H2O) and CO2 (LICOR 7500) were installed at a 9m long boom directed southward of the platform in two heights, at 6.8 and 13.8m above sea surface. Additionally slow temperature and humidity sensors were installed at each height. The gas analyzer systems were calibrated before the installation and worked permanently without any calibration during the first measurement period of one and a half years. The comparison with the measurements of the slow sensors showed for both instruments no significant long-term drift in H2O and CO2. Drifts on smaller time scales (in the order of days) due to the contamination with sea salt, were cleaned naturally by rain. The drift of both quantities had no influence on the fluctuation, which, in contrast to the mean values, are important for the flux estimation. All data were filtered due to spikes, rain, and the influence of the mast. The data set includes the measurements of all sensors as average over 30 minutes each for one and a half years, June 2008 to December 2009, and 10 month from November 2011 to August 2012. Additionally derived quantities for 30 minutes intervals each, like the variances for the fast-sensor variables, as well as the momentum, sensible and latent heat, and CO2 flux are presented.

Standard Errors for the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition

The decomposition technique introduced by Blinder (1973) and Oaxaca (1973) is widely used to study outcome differences between groups. For example, the technique is commonly applied to the analysis of the gender wage gap. However, despite the procedure's frequent use, very little attention has been paid to the issue of estimating the sampling variances of the decomposition components. We therefore suggest an approach that introduces consistent variance estimators for several variants of the decomposition. The accuracy of the new estimators under ideal conditions is illustrated with the results of a Monte Carlo simulation. As a second check, the estimators are compared to bootstrap results obtained using real data. In contrast to previously proposed statistics, the new method takes into account the extra variation imposed by stochastic regressors.

Comparative analysis of meta-analysis methods: when to use which?

Background: Several meta-analysis methods can be used to quantitatively combine the results of a group of experiments, including the weighted mean difference, statistical vote counting, the parametric response ratio and the non-parametric response ratio. The software engineering community has focused on the weighted mean difference method. However, other meta-analysis methods have distinct strengths, such as being able to be used when variances are not reported. There are as yet no guidelines to indicate which method is best for use in each case. Aim: Compile a set of rules that SE researchers can use to ascertain which aggregation method is best for use in the synthesis phase of a systematic review. Method: Monte Carlo simulation varying the number of experiments in the meta analyses, the number of subjects that they include, their variance and effect size. We empirically calculated the reliability and statistical power in each case Results: WMD is generally reliable if the variance is low, whereas its power depends on the effect size and number of subjects per meta-analysis; the reliability of RR is generally unaffected by changes in variance, but it does require more subjects than WMD to be powerful; NPRR is the most reliable method, but it is not very powerful; SVC behaves well when the effect size is moderate, but is less reliable with other effect sizes. Detailed tables of results are annexed. Conclusions: Before undertaking statistical aggregation in software engineering, it is worthwhile checking whether there is any appreciable difference in the reliability and power of the methods. If there is, software engineers should select the method that optimizes both parameters.

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.