The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Prognostic use of growth characteristics of early gastric cancer and expression patterns of apoptotic, cell proliferation, and cell adhesion proteins

Background and Objectives: Selection of suitable treatment for early gastric cancers, such as endoscopic mucosal resection or the major surgical option of resection of the cancer together with a radical lymph node dissection, may be assisted by comparing the growth characteristics of the cancer with selected molecular characteristics. The results could be used to predict those cases that have a higher risk of developing secondary metastases. Methods: A total of 1,196 Japanese patients with early gastric cancers (648 mucosal cancers and 548 submucosal) were included in the selection of two groups: a metastatic group made up 57 cancers with lymph node metastasis (9 mucosal, 48 submucosal), and a nonmetastatic group of 61 cases (6 mucosal, 55 submucosal) without lymph node metastasis. Growth characteristics of the cancers (superficially spreading, penetrating or invasive, lymph node metastasis) were compared with immunohistochemical expression of single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) protein (apoptosis indicator), bcl-2 and p53 (apoptosis-associated), Ki-67 (cell proliferation), and E-cadherin (cell adhesion) proteins. Results: The lesions in the nonmetastatic group had higher levels of apoptosis and lower expression of bcl-2 than in the metastatic group, indicating an inhibitory role for apoptosis in malignant progression. Apoptosis was also higher in the superficial compared with the invasive lesions of both groups. The lesions in the metastatic group had higher p53 expression than that of the nonmetastatic group, whereas apoptosis in the metastatic group was lower than in the nonmetastatic group. An unproved explanation for this finding may be that, although increased, p53 was mutated and ineffective in promoting apoptotic control of metastatic progression. E-cadherin was decreased in the invasive lesions of both groups, indicating a greater ability of these cells to lose adhesion, to invade the submucosa, and to metastasize. Cell proliferation was highest in the superficial lesions of both metastatic and nonmetastatic groups. Conclusions: Early gastric cancers with low levels of apoptosis, increased bcl-2, and high levels of p53 expression are more likely to invade and metastasize. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Determination of regional flow by use of intravascular PET tracers: Microvascular theory and experimental validation for pig livers

Today, the standard approach for the kinetic analysis of dynamic PET studies is compartment models, in which the tracer and its metabolites are confined to a few well-mixed compartments. We examine whether the standard model is suitable for modern PET data or whether theories including more physiologic realism can advance the interpretation of dynamic PET data. A more detailed microvascular theory is developed for intravascular tracers in single-capillary and multiple-capillary systems. The microvascular models, which account for concentration gradients in capillaries, are validated and compared with the standard model in a pig liver study. Methods: Eight pigs underwent a 5-min dynamic PET study after O-15-carbon monoxide inhalation. Throughout each experiment, hepatic arterial blood and portal venous blood were sampled, and flow was measured with transit-time flow meters. The hepatic dual-inlet concentration was calculated as the flow-weighted inlet concentration. Dynamic PET data were analyzed with a traditional single-compartment model and 2 microvascular models. Results: Microvascular models provided a better fit of the tissue activity of an intravascular tracer than did the compartment model. In particular, the early dynamic phase after a tracer bolus injection was much improved. The regional hepatic blood flow estimates provided by the microvascular models (1.3 +/- 0.3 mL min(-1) mL(-1) for the single-capillary model and 1.14 +/- 0.14 min(-1) mL(-1) for the multiple-capillary model) (mean +/- SEM mL of blood min(-1) mL of liver tissue(-1)) were in agreement with the total blood flow measured by flow meters and normalized to liver weight (1.03 +/- 0.12 mL min(-1) mL(-1)). Conclusion: Compared with the standard compartment model, the 2 microvascular models provide a superior description of tissue activity after an intravascular tracer bolus injection. The microvascular models include only parameters with a clear-cut physiologic interpretation and are applicable to capillary beds in any organ. In this study, the microvascular models were validated for the liver and provided quantitative regional flow estimates in agreement with flow measurements.

Alcohol and other drug use disorders among older-aged people

In Australia people aged 65 years or older currently comprise 12.1% of the population. This has been estimated to rise to 24.2% by 2051. Until recently there has been relatively little research on alcohol and other drug use disorders among these individuals but, given the ageing population, this issue is likely to become of increasing importance and prominence. Epidemiological research shows a strong age-related decline in the prevalence of alcohol and other drug use disorders with age. Possible reasons for this include: age-related declines in the use and misuse of alcohol and other drugs; increased mortality among those with a lifetime history of alcohol and other drug use disorders; historical differences in exposure to and use of alcohol and other drugs. Despite the age-related decline in the prevalence of these disorders, they do still occur among those aged 65 years or older and, given historical changes in exposure to and use of illicit drugs, it likely that the prevalence of these disorders among older-aged individuals will rise. Specific issues faced by older-aged individuals with alcohol and other drug use problems are discussed. These include: interactions with prescribed medications, under-recognition and treatment of alcohol and drug problems, unintentional injury and social isolation. Finally, a brief discussion of treatment issues is provided.

Use of an accelerated chest pain assessment protocol in patients at intermediate risk of adverse cardiac events

Objective: To determine the feasibility, safety and effectiveness of a structured clinical pathway for stratification and management of patients presenting with chest pain and classified as having intermediate risk of adverse cardiac outcomes in the subsequent six months. Design: Prospective clinical audit. Participants and setting: 630 consecutive patients who presented to the emergency department of a metropolitan tertiary care hospital between January 2000 and June 2001 with chest pain and intermediate-risk features. Intervention: Use of the Accelerated Chest Pain Assessment Protocol (ACPAP), as advocated by the Management of unstable angina guidelines - 2000 from the National Heart Foundation and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand. Main outcome measure: Adverse cardiac events during six-month follow-up. Results: 409 patients (65%) were reclassified as low risk and discharged at a mean of 14 hours after assessment in the chest pain unit. None had missed myocardial infarctions, while three (1%) had cardiac events at six months (all elective revascularisation procedures, with no readmissions with acute coronary syndromes). Another 110 patients (17%) were reclassified as high risk, and 21 (19%) of these had cardiac events (mainly revascularisations) by six months. Patients who were unable to exercise or had non-diagnostic exercise stress test results (equivocal risk) had an intermediate cardiac event rate (8%). Conclusions: This study validates use of ACPAP. The protocol eliminated missed myocardial infarction; allowed early, safe discharge of low-risk patients; and led to early identification and management of high-risk patients.

Development of a quality use of medicines coding system to rate clinical pharmacists' medication review recommendations

Objective: To develop a 'quality use of medicines' coding system for the assessment of pharmacists' medication reviews and to apply it to an appropriate cohort. Method: A 'quality use of medicines' coding system was developed based on findings in the literature. These codes were then applied to 216 (111 intervention, 105 control) veterans' medication profiles by an independent clinical pharmacist who was supported by a clinical pharmacologist with the aim to assess the appropriateness of pharmacy interventions. The profiles were provided for veterans participating in a randomised, controlled trial in private hospitals evaluating the effect of medication review and discharge counselling. The reliability of the coding was tested by two independent clinical pharmacists in a random sample of 23 veterans from the study population. Main outcome measure: Interrater reliability was assessed by applying Cohen's kappa score on aggregated codes. Results: The coding system based on the literature consisted of 19 codes. The results from the three clinical pharmacists suggested that the original coding system had two major problems: (a) a lack of discrimination for certain recommendations e. g. adverse drug reactions, toxicity and mortality may be seen as variations in degree of a single effect and (b) certain codes e. g. essential therapy were in low prevalence. The interrater reliability for an aggregation of all codes into positive, negative and clinically non-significant codes ranged from 0.49-0.58 (good to fair). The interrater reliability increased to 0.72-0.79 (excellent) when all negative codes were excluded. Analysis of the sample of 216 profiles showed that the most prevalent recommendations from the clinical pharmacists were a positive impact in reducing adverse responses (31.9%), an improvement in good clinical pharmacy practice (25.5%) and a positive impact in reducing drug toxicity (11.1%). Most medications were assigned the clinically non-significant code (96.6%). In fact, the interventions led to a statistically significant difference in pharmacist recommendations in the categories; adverse response, toxicity and good clinical pharmacy practice measured by the quality use of medicine coding system. Conclusion: It was possible to use the quality use of medicine coding system to rate the quality and potential health impact of pharmacists' medication reviews, and the system did pick up differences between intervention and control patients. The interrater reliability for the summarised coding system was fair, but a larger sample of medication regimens is needed to assess the non-summarised quality use of medicines coding system.

Use of a thermodilution catheter to measure core body temperature, central venous pressure and cardiac output during anaesthesia and surgery in the dog

The use of thermodilution and other methods of monitoring in dogs during surgery and critical care was evaluated. Six Greyhounds were anaesthetised and then instrumented by placing a thermodilution catheter into the pulmonary artery via the jugular vein. A catheter in the dorsal pedal artery also permitted direct measurement of arterial pressures. Core body temperature (degreesC) and central venous pressure (mmHg) were measured, while cardiac output (mL/min/kg) and mean arterial pressure (mmHg) were calculated. A mid-line surgical incision was performed and the physiological parameters were monitored for a total of two hours. All physiological parameters generally declined, although significant increases (P<0.05) were noted for cardiac output following surgical incision. Central venous pressure was maintained at approximately 0mmHg by controlling an infusion of sterile saline. Core body temperature decreased from 37.1+/-0.6degreesC (once instrumented) to 36.6+/-0.60degreesC (at the end of the study), despite warming using heating pads. Physiological parameters indicative of patient viability will generally decline during surgery without intervention. This study describes an approach that can be undertaken in veterinary hospitals to accurately monitor vital signs in surgical and critical care patients.

Use of web-based formative assessment to support student learning in metabolism/nutrition unit

In 2002, an integrated basic science course was introduced into the Bachelor of Dental Sciences programme at the University of Queensland, Australia. Learning activities for the Metabolism and Nutrition unit within this integrated course included lectures, problem-based learning tutorials, computer-based self-directed learning exercises and practicals. To support student learning and assist students to develop the skills necessary to become lifelong learners, an extensive bank of formative assessment questions was set up using the commercially available package, WebCT®. Questions included short-answer, multiple-choice and extended matching questions. As significant staff time was involved in setting up the question database, the extent to which students used the formative assessment and their perceptions of its usefulness to their learning were evaluated to determine whether formative assessment should be extended to other units within the course. More than 90% of the class completed formative assessment tasks associated with learning activities scheduled in the first two weeks of the block, but this declined to less than 50% by the fourth and final week of the block. Patterns of usage of the formative assessment were also compared in students who scored in the top 10% for all assessment for the semester with those who scored in the lowest 10%. High-performing students accessed the Web-based formative assessment about twice as often as those who scored in the lowest band. However, marks for the formative assessment tests did not differ significantly between the two groups. In a questionnaire that was administered at the completion of the block, students rated the formative assessment highly, with 80% regarding it as being helpful for their learning. In conclusion, although substantial staff time was required to set up the question database, this appeared to be justified by the positive responses of the students.

Prediction of mortality in patients without angina: Use of an exercise score and exercise echocardiography

Background Exercise testing has limited efficacy for identifying coronary artery disease (CAD) in the absence of anginal. symptoms. Exercise echocardiography is more accurate than standard exercise testing, but its efficacy in this situation has not been defined. We sought to identify whether the Duke treadmill. score or exercise echocardiography (ExE) could be used to identify risk in patients without anginal symptoms. Methods We studied 1859 patients without typical or atypical angina, heart failure, or a history or ECG evidence of infarction or CAD, who were referred for ExE, of whom 1832 (age 51 15 years, 944 men) were followed for up to 10 years. The presence and extent of ischaemia and scar were interpreted by expert reviewers at the time of the original study. Results Exercise provoked significant (>0.1 mV) ST segment depression in 215 patients (12%), and wall motion abnormalities in 137 (8%). Seventy-eight patients (4%) died before revascularization, only 17 from known cardiac causes. The independent predictors of death were age (RR 1.1, p