Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Linking the coevolutionary and population dynamics of host-parasitoid interactions

The interplay between coevolutionary and population or community dynamics is currently the focus of much empirical and theoretical consideration. Here, we develop a simulation model to study the coevolutionary and population dynamics of a hypothetical host-parasitoid interaction. In the model, host resistance and parasitoid virulence are allowed to coevolve. We investigate how trade-offs associated with these traits modify the system's coevolutionary and population dynamics. The most important influence on these dynamics comes from the incorporation of density-dependent costs of resistance ability. We find three main outcomes. First, if the costs of resistance are high, then one or both of the players go extinct. Second, when the costs of resistance are intermediate to low, cycling population and coevolutionary dynamics are found, with slower evolutionary changes observed when the costs of virulence are also low. Third, when the costs associated with resistance and virulence are both high, the hosts trade-off resistance against fecundity and invest little in resistance. However, the parasitoids continue to invest in virulence, leading to stable host and parasitoid population sizes. These results support the hypothesis that costs associated with resistance and virulence will maintain the heritable variation in these traits found in natural populations and that the nature of these trade-offs will greatly influence the population dynamics of the interacting species.

The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modelling and microscale modelling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modelling system coupled to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a community tool to address urban environmental issues. The core of this WRF/urban modelling system consists of the following: (1) three methods with different degrees of freedom to parameterize urban surface processes, ranging from a simple bulk parameterization to a sophisticated multi-layer urban canopy model with an indoor–outdoor exchange sub-model that directly interacts with the atmospheric boundary layer, (2) coupling to fine-scale computational fluid dynamic Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes and Large-Eddy simulation models for transport and dispersion (T&D) applications, (3) procedures to incorporate high-resolution urban land use, building morphology, and anthropogenic heating data using the National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT), and (4) an urbanized high-resolution land data assimilation system. This paper provides an overview of this modelling system; addresses the daunting challenges of initializing the coupled WRF/urban model and of specifying the potentially vast number of parameters required to execute the WRF/urban model; explores the model sensitivity to these urban parameters; and evaluates the ability of WRF/urban to capture urban heat islands, complex boundary-layer structures aloft, and urban plume T&D for several major metropolitan regions. Recent applications of this modelling system illustrate its promising utility, as a regional climate-modelling tool, to investigate impacts of future urbanization on regional meteorological conditions and on air quality under future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Urban-scale Environmental Prediction Systems

Weather, climate, water and related environmental conditions, including air quality, all have profound effects on cities. A growing importance is being attached to understanding and predicting atmospheric conditions and their interactions with other components of the Earth System in cities, at multiple scales. We highlight the need for: (1) development of high-resolution coupled environmental prediction models that include realistic city-specific processes, boundary conditions and fluxes; (2) enhanced observational systems to support (force, constrain, evaluate) these models to provide high quality forecasts for new urban services; (3) provision of meteorological and related environmental variables to aid protection of human health and the environment; (4) new targeted and customized delivery platforms using modern communication techniques, developed with users to ensure that services, advice and warnings result in appropriate action; and (5) development of new skill and capacity to make best use of technologies to deliver new services in complex, challenging and evolving city environments. We highlight the importance of a coordinated and strategic approach that draws on, but does not replicate, past work to maximize benefits to stakeholders.

Insights of meso and micro-scale processes for the Caxiuanã forest region from high resolution simulation

Dados meteorológicos e simulações numéricas de alta resolução foram usados para estimar campos espaciais na região leste da Amazônia onde se situam a Floresta e a Baía de Caxiuanã, no Estado do Pará. O estudo foi feito para o período de Novembro de 2006, quando foi realizado o experimento de campo COBRA-PARÁ. Análises de imagens do sensor MODIS mostram a ocorrência de vários fenômenos locais como avenidas de nuvens, sistemas convectivos precipitantes, e importante influência das interfaces entre a floresta e as superfícies aquáticas. Simulações numéricas para o dia 7 de novembro de 2006 mostraram que o modelo representou bem as principais variáveis meteorológicas. Os resultados mostram que a Baía de Caxiuanã provoca importante impacto nos campos meteorológicos adjacentes, principalmente, através da advecção pelos ventos de nordeste que induzem a temperaturas do dossel mais frias a oeste da baía. Simulações de alta resolução (LES) produziram padrões espaciais de temperatura e umidade alinhados com os ventos durante o período diurno e mudanças noturnas causadas principalmente pela presença da baía e chuvas convectivas. Correlações espaciais entre os ventos de níveis médios e os fluxos verticais de calor latente mostraram que existe uma mudança de correlações negativas para as primeiras horas do dia passando para correlações positivas para o período da tarde e início da noite.

Prevalence and Predictors of Potential Drug-Drug Interactions in the Elderly: A Cross-Sectional Study in the Brazilian Primary Public Health System

Purpose. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of clinically important potential drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in elderly patients attending the public primary health care system in Brazil. The secondary objective was to investigate possible predictors of potential DDIs. Methods. A cross-sectional study was carried out in 5 Brazilian cities located in the Ourinhos Micro-region, Sao Paulo State, between November 2010 and April 2011. The selected sample was divided according to the presence (exposed) or absence (unexposed) of one or more potential DDIs (defined as the presence of a minimum 5-day overlap in supply of an interacting drug pair). Data were collected from medical prescriptions and patients' medical records. Potential DDIs (rated major or moderate) were identified using 4 DDI-checker programs. Logistic regression analysis was used to study potential DDI predictors. Results. The prevalence of clinically important potential DDIs found during the study period was 47.4%. Female sex (OR = 2.49 [95% CI 2.29-2.75]), diagnosis of = 3 diseases (OR = 6.43 [95% CI 3.25-12.44]), and diagnosis of hypertension (OR = 1.68 [95% CI 1.23-2.41]) were associated with potential DDIs. The adjusted OR increased from 0.90 [95% CI 0.82-1.03] in patients aged 60 - 64 years to 4.03 [95% CI 3.79 - 4.28] in those aged 75 years or older. Drug therapy regimens involving = 2 prescribers (OR = 1.39 [95% CI 1.17-1.67]), = 3 drugs (OR = 3.21 [95% CI 2.78-3.59]), = 2 ATC codes (OR = 1.19 [95% CI 1.12-1.29]), = 2 drugs acting on cytochrome P450 (OR = 2.24 [95% CI 2.07-2.46]), and ATC codes B (OR = 1.89 [95% CI 1.05-2.08]) and C (OR = 4.01 [95% CI 3.55-4.57]) were associated with potential DDIs. Conclusion. Special care should be taken with the prescription and therapeutic follow-up of patients who present characteristics identified as predictors. Knowledge of potential DDI predictors could aid in developing preventive practices and policies that allow public health services to better manage this situation.

Parasites in the neighbourhood: Interactions of the mistletoe Phoradendron affine (Viscaceae) with its dispersers and hosts in urban areas of Brazil

Mistletoes constitute an important food resource for animals in many ecosystems. However, these plants are considered pests in urban areas because of deleterious effects they have on the host trees. Studies in urban areas were mostly focused on listing host species or procedures to control the "pest". In this sense, broader studies including several aspects of mistletoes ecology in urban ecosystems are still missing. We studied the interaction of the mistletoe, Phoradendron affine, with its dispersers and hosts in two urban sites in Uberlandia, Brazil. Phoradendron affine fruits were consumed almost exclusively by Euphonia chlorotica, which was crucial for seed germination. Parasitism was recorded in five hosts, two native (Handroanthus chrysotrichus and Tabebuia roseoalba) and three exotic species (Spathodea campanulata, Ligustrum lucidum and Melia azedarach). Mistletoes were found parasitizing larger host trees, a trend commonly reported for mistletoe-host interaction. Mistletoe seed germination was not affected by the trees species, whether host or non-host, but the radicle of germinated seeds could not penetrate the bark and seedlings invariably died in non-host species. We found a high prevalence of parasitism in our study, in comparison to what previous studies reported for natural areas. The spatial distribution of the hosts and high light incidence on isolated host trees may lead to this high prevalence in urban areas. Rather than eradicated, mistletoes in urban areas should be ecologically managed and their importance for bird species conservation must be considered. More studies to determine which bird species are favoured by mistletoe presence in urban areas will be essential for, this purpose. (C) 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The stigma of mental illness in Southern Ghana: attitudes of the urban population and patients' views

PURPOSE: Stigma is a frequent accompaniment of mental illness leading to a number of detrimental consequences. Most research into the stigma connected to mental illness was conducted in the developed world. So far, few data exist on countries in sub-Saharan Africa and no data have been published on population attitudes towards mental illness in Ghana. Even less is known about the stigma actually perceived by the mentally ill persons themselves. METHOD: A convenience sample of 403 participants (210 men, mean age 32.4 ± 12.3 years) from urban regions in Accra, Cape Coast and Pantang filled in the Community Attitudes towards the Mentally Ill (CAMI) questionnaire. In addition, 105 patients (75 men, mean age 35.9 ± 11.0 years) of Ghana's three psychiatric hospitals (Accra Psychiatry Hospital, Ankaful Hospital, Pantang Hospital) answered the Perceived Stigma and Discrimination Scale. RESULTS: High levels of stigma prevailed in the population as shown by high proportions of assent to items expressing authoritarian and socially restrictive views, coexisting with agreement with more benevolent attitudes. A higher level of education was associated with more positive attitudes on all subscales (Authoritarianism, Social Restrictiveness, Benevolence and Acceptance of Community Based Mental Health Services). The patients reported a high degree of experienced stigma with secrecy concerning the illness as a widespread coping strategy. Perceived stigma was not associated with sex or age. DISCUSSION: The extent of stigmatising attitudes within the urban population of Southern Ghana is in line with the scant research in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa and mirrored by the experienced stigma reported by the patients. These results have to be seen in the context of the extreme scarcity of resources within the Ghanaian psychiatric system. Anti-stigma efforts should include interventions for mentally ill persons themselves and not exclusively focus on public attitudes.

The development of UTCS/NETSIM/ICG: an integrated urban traffic control system - network simulation - interactive computer graphics program. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of University Research, Washington, D.C.

A computer simulation of a large scale academic computer system.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Illinois.

An agro-ecological simulation model system

In this paper five different models, as five modules of a complex agro-ecosystem are investigated. The water and nutrient flow in soil is simulated by the nutrient-in-soil model while the biomass change according to the seasonal weather aspects, the nutrient content of soil and the biotic interactions amongst the other terms of the food web are simulated by the food web population dynamical model that is constructed for a piece of homogeneous field. The food web model is based on the nutrient-in-soil model and on the activity function evaluator model that expresses the effect of temperature. The numbers of individuals in all phenological phases of the different populations are given by the phenology model. The food web model is extended to an inhomogeneous piece of field by the spatial extension model. Finally, as an additional module, an application of the above models for multivariate state-planes, is given. The modules built into the system are closely connected to each other as they utilize each other’s outputs, nevertheless, they work separately, too. Some case studies are analysed and a summarized outlook is given.

A large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization geographic information system based on parallel map tiling

With the exponential increasing demands and uses of GIS data visualization system, such as urban planning, environment and climate change monitoring, weather simulation, hydrographic gauge and so forth, the geospatial vector and raster data visualization research, application and technology has become prevalent. However, we observe that current web GIS techniques are merely suitable for static vector and raster data where no dynamic overlaying layers. While it is desirable to enable visual explorations of large-scale dynamic vector and raster geospatial data in a web environment, improving the performance between backend datasets and the vector and raster applications remains a challenging technical issue. This dissertation is to implement these challenging and unimplemented areas: how to provide a large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization service with dynamic overlaying layers accessible from various client devices through a standard web browser, and how to make the large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization service as rapid as the static one. To accomplish these, a large-scale dynamic vector and raster data visualization geographic information system based on parallel map tiling and a comprehensive performance improvement solution are proposed, designed and implemented. They include: the quadtree-based indexing and parallel map tiling, the Legend String, the vector data visualization with dynamic layers overlaying, the vector data time series visualization, the algorithm of vector data rendering, the algorithm of raster data re-projection, the algorithm for elimination of superfluous level of detail, the algorithm for vector data gridding and re-grouping and the cluster servers side vector and raster data caching.

Node-Depth Encoding and Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Applied to Large-Scale Distribution System Reconfiguration

The power loss reduction in distribution systems (DSs) is a nonlinear and multiobjective problem. Service restoration in DSs is even computationally hard since it additionally requires a solution in real-time. Both DS problems are computationally complex. For large-scale networks, the usual problem formulation has thousands of constraint equations. The node-depth encoding (NDE) enables a modeling of DSs problems that eliminates several constraint equations from the usual formulation, making the problem solution simpler. On the other hand, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on subpopulation tables adequately models several objectives and constraints, enabling a better exploration of the search space. The combination of the multiobjective EA with NDE (MEAN) results in the proposed approach for solving DSs problems for large-scale networks. Simulation results have shown the MEAN is able to find adequate restoration plans for a real DS with 3860 buses and 632 switches in a running time of 0.68 s. Moreover, the MEAN has shown a sublinear running time in function of the system size. Tests with networks ranging from 632 to 5166 switches indicate that the MEAN can find network configurations corresponding to a power loss reduction of 27.64% for very large networks requiring relatively low running time.

Distinct conformational properties determined by implicit and explicit representation of protein-solvent interactions. An analytical and computer simulation study

In the protein folding problem, solvent-mediated forces are commonly represented by intra-chain pairwise contact energy. Although this approximation has proven to be useful in several circumstances, it is limited in some other aspects of the problem. Here we show that it is possible to achieve two models to represent the chain-solvent system. one of them with implicit and other with explicit solvent, such that both reproduce the same thermodynamic results. Firstly, lattice models treated by analytical methods, were used to show that the implicit and explicitly representation of solvent effects can be energetically equivalent only if local solvent properties are time and spatially invariant. Following, applying the same reasoning Used for the lattice models, two inter-consistent Monte Carlo off-lattice models for implicit and explicit solvent are constructed, being that now in the latter the solvent properties are allowed to fluctuate. Then, it is shown that the chain configurational evolution as well as the globule equilibrium conformation are significantly distinct for implicit and explicit solvent systems. Actually, strongly contrasting with the implicit solvent version, the explicit solvent model predicts: (i) a malleable globule, in agreement with the estimated large protein-volume fluctuations; (ii) thermal conformational stability, resembling the conformational hear resistance of globular proteins, in which radii of gyration are practically insensitive to thermal effects over a relatively wide range of temperatures; and (iii) smaller radii of gyration at higher temperatures, indicating that the chain conformational entropy in the unfolded state is significantly smaller than that estimated from random coil configurations. Finally, we comment on the meaning of these results with respect to the understanding of the folding process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.