Reevaluation of the MASTER-2009 MLI and H-10 Debris Modeling

The current paper is an excerpt from the doctoral thesis ”Multi-Layer Insulation as Contribution to Orbital Debris”written at the Institute of Aerospace Systems of the Technische Universit ̈at of Braunschweig. The Multi-Layer In-sulation (MLI) population included in ESA’s MASTER-2009 (M eteoroid and Space-Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) software is based on models for two mechanisms: One model simulates the release of MLI debris during fragmentation events while another estimates the continuo us release of larger MLI pieces due to aging related deterioration of the material. The aim of the thesis was to revise the MLI models from the base up followed by a re-validation of the simulated MLI debris population. The validation is based on comparison to measurement data of the GEO and GTO debris environment obtained by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) using ESA’s Space Debris Telescope (ESASDT), the 1-m Zeiss telescope located at the Optical Ground Station (OGS) at the Teide Observatory at Tenerife, Spain. The re-validation led to the conclusion that MLI may cover a much smaller portion of the observed objects than previously published. Further investigation of the resulting discrepancy revealed that the contribution of altogether nine known Ariane H-10 upper stage explosion events which occurred between 1984 and 2002 has very likely been underestimated in past simulations.

Cultural Legacies and Political Preferences: The Failure of Separatism in the Swiss Jura

The study of secession generally stresses the causal influence of cultural identities, political preferences, or ecological factors. Whereas these different views are often considered to be mutually exclusive, this paper proposes a two-stage model in which they are complementary. We posit that cultural identities matter for explaining secessionism, but not because of primordial attachments. Rather, religious and linguistic groups matter because their members are imbued with cultural legacies that lead to distinct political preferences – in this case preferences over welfare statism. Further, ecological constraints such as geography and topography affect social interaction with like-minded individuals. On the basis of both these political preferences and ecological constraints, individuals then make rational choices about the desirability of secession. Instrumental considerations are therefore crucial in explaining the decision to secede, but not in a conventional pocketbook manner. To examine this theory, we analyze the 2013 referendum on the secession of the Jura Bernois region from the Canton of Berne in Switzerland, using municipal level census and referendum data. The results lend support to the theory and suggest one way in which the politics of identity, based on factors like language and religion, can be fused with the politics of interest (preferences for more or less state intervention into the polity and economy) to better understand group behavior.

Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Events: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Obesity and diets rich in uric acid-raising components appear to account for the increased prevalence of hyperuricemia in Westernized populations. Prevalence rates of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, CKD, and cardiovascular disease are also increasing. We used Mendelian randomization to examine whether uric acid is an independent and causal cardiovascular risk factor. Serum uric acid was measured in 3315 patients of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study. We calculated a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) for uric acid concentration based on eight uric acid-regulating single nucleotide polymorphisms. Causal odds ratios and causal hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a two-stage regression estimate with the GRS as the instrumental variable to examine associations with cardiometabolic phenotypes (cross-sectional) and mortality (prospectively) by logistic regression and Cox regression, respectively. Our GRS was not consistently associated with any biochemical marker except for uric acid, arguing against pleiotropy. Uric acid was associated with a range of prevalent diseases, including coronary artery disease. Uric acid and the GRS were both associated with cardiovascular death and sudden cardiac death. In a multivariate model adjusted for factors including medication, causal HRs corresponding to each 1-mg/dl increase in genetically predicted uric acid concentration were significant for cardiovascular death (HR, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.81) and sudden cardiac death (HR, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 5.00). These results suggest that high uric acid is causally related to adverse cardiovascular outcomes, especially sudden cardiac death.

Corruption and Growth Under Weak Identification

The goal of this paper is to revisit the influential work of Mauro [1995] focusing on the strength of his results under weak identification. He finds a negative impact of corruption on investment and economic growth that appears to be robust to endogeneity when using two-stage least squares (2SLS). Since the inception of Mauro [1995], much literature has focused on 2SLS methods revealing the dangers of estimation and thus inference under weak identification. We reproduce the original results of Mauro [1995] with a high level of confidence and show that the instrument used in the original work is in fact 'weak' as defined by Staiger and Stock [1997]. Thus we update the analysis using a test statistic robust to weak instruments. Our results suggest that under Mauro's original model there is a high probability that the parameters of interest are locally almost unidentified in multivariate specifications. To address this problem, we also investigate other instruments commonly used in the corruption literature and obtain similar results.

Bayesian dual threshold design with Dirichlet distribution: An alternative way to frequentist multi-stage phase II designs in oncology

Many phase II clinical studies in oncology use two-stage frequentist design such as Simon's optimal design. However, they have a common logistical problem regarding the patient accrual at the interim. Strictly speaking, patient accrual at the end of the first stage may have to be suspended until all patients have events, success or failure. For example, when the study endpoint is six-month progression free survival, patient accrual has to be stopped until all outcomes from stage I is observed. However, study investigators may have concern when accrual is suspended after the first stage due to the loss of accrual momentum during this hiatus. We propose a two-stage phase II design that resolves the patient accrual problem due to an interim analysis, and it can be used as an alternative way to frequentist two-stage phase II studies in oncology. ^

Factors influencing hurricane evacuation among Hispanic population

The recent hurricanes of Katrina, Rita, and Dolly have brought to light the precarious situation populations place themselves in when they are unprepared to face a storm, or do not follow official orders to evacuate when a destructive hurricane is poised to hit the area. Three counties in southern Texas lie within 60 miles of the Gulf of Mexico, and along the Mexican border. Determining the barriers to hurricane evacuation in this distinct and highly impoverished area of the United States would help aid local, state, and federal agencies to respond more effectively to persons living here.^ The aim of this study was to examine intention to comply with mandatory hurricane evacuation orders among persons living in three counties in South Texas by gender, income, education, acculturation and county of residence. A questionnaire was administered to 3,088 households across the three counties using a two-stage cluster sampling strategy, stratified by all three counties. The door-to-door survey was a 73-item instrument that included demographics, reasons for and against evacuation, and preparedness for a hurricane. Weighted data were used for the analyses.^ Chi-square tests were run to determine whether differences between observed and expected frequencies were statistically significant. A logistic regression model was developed based on that univariate analysis. Results from the logistic regression estimated odds ratios and their 95 percent confidence intervals for the independent variables.^ Logistic regression results indicate that females were less likely than men to follow an evacuation order. Having a higher education meant more likelihood of evacuating. Those respondents with a higher affiliation with Spanish than English were more likely to follow the evacuation orders. Hidalgo County residents were less likely to evacuate than Cameron or Willacy Counties' residents. Local officials need to implement communication efforts specifically tailored for females, residents with less of an affiliation with Spanish, and Hidalgo County residents to ensure their successful evacuation prior to a strong hurricane's landfall.^

The determinants of improvements in health outcomes and of cost reduction in hospital inpatient care

This study aims to address two research questions. First, ‘Can we identify factors that are determinants both of improved health outcomes and of reduced costs for hospitalized patients with one of six common diagnoses?’ Second, ‘Can we identify other factors that are determinants of improved health outcomes for such hospitalized patients but which are not associated with costs?’ The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database from 2003 to 2006 was employed in this study. The total study sample consisted of hospitals which had at least 30 patients each year for the given diagnosis: 954 hospitals for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 1552 hospitals for congestive heart failure (CHF), 1120 hospitals for stroke (STR), 1283 hospitals for gastrointestinal hemorrhage (GIH), 979 hospitals for hip fracture (HIP), and 1716 hospitals for pneumonia (PNE). This study used simultaneous equations models to investigate the determinants of improvement in health outcomes and of cost reduction in hospital inpatient care for these six common diagnoses. In addition, the study used instrumental variables and two-stage least squares random effect model for unbalanced panel data estimation. The study concluded that a few factors were determinants of high quality and low cost. Specifically, high specialty was the determinant of high quality and low costs for CHF patients; small hospital size was the determinant of high quality and low costs for AMI patients. Furthermore, CHF patients who were treated in Midwest, South, and West region hospitals had better health outcomes and lower hospital costs than patients who were treated in Northeast region hospitals. Gastrointestinal hemorrhage and pneumonia patients who were treated in South region hospitals also had better health outcomes and lower hospital costs than patients who were treated in Northeast region hospitals. This study found that six non-cost factors were related to health outcomes for a few diagnoses: hospital volume, percentage emergency room admissions for a given diagnosis, hospital competition, specialty, bed size, and hospital region.^

AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF MEDICAL AND NON-MEDICAL INPUTS IN THE PRODUCTION OF CARDIO-RESPIRATORY PHYSICAL HEALTH STATUS

The purpose of this study was to examine, in the context of an economic model of health production, the relationship between inputs (health influencing activities) and fitness.^ Primary data were collected from 204 employees of a large insurance company at the time of their enrollment in an industrially-based health promotion program. The inputs of production included medical care use, exercise, smoking, drinking, eating, coronary disease history, and obesity. The variables of age, gender and education known to affect the production process were also examined. Two estimates of fitness were used; self-report and a physiologic estimate based on exercise treadmill performance. Ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares regression analyses were used to estimate the fitness production functions.^ In the production of self-reported fitness status the coefficients for the exercise, smoking, eating, and drinking production inputs, and the control variable of gender were statistically significant and possessed theoretically correct signs. In the production of physiologic fitness exercise, smoking and gender were statistically significant. Exercise and gender were theoretically consistent while smoking was not. Results are compared with previous analyses of health production. ^

Bayesian adaptive designs for drug combinations in early phase clinical trials

Treating patients with combined agents is a growing trend in cancer clinical trials. Evaluating the synergism of multiple drugs is often the primary motivation for such drug-combination studies. Focusing on the drug combination study in the early phase clinical trials, our research is composed of three parts: (1) We conduct a comprehensive comparison of four dose-finding designs in the two-dimensional toxicity probability space and propose using the Bayesian model averaging method to overcome the arbitrariness of the model specification and enhance the robustness of the design; (2) Motivated by a recent drug-combination trial at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a continuous-dose standard of care agent and a discrete-dose investigational agent, we propose a two-stage Bayesian adaptive dose-finding design based on an extended continual reassessment method; (3) By combining phase I and phase II clinical trials, we propose an extension of a single agent dose-finding design. We model the time-to-event toxicity and efficacy to direct dose finding in two-dimensional drug-combination studies. We conduct extensive simulation studies to examine the operating characteristics of the aforementioned designs and demonstrate the designs' good performances in various practical scenarios.^

ROLE OF STAT3 IN KERATINOCYTE STEM CELLS DURING SKIN TUMORIGENESIS

STATs play crucial roles in a wide variety of biological functions, including development, proliferation, differentiation, migration and in cancer development. In the present study, we examined the impact of Stat3 deletion or activation on behavior of keratinocytes, including keratinocyte stem cells (KSCs). Deletion of Stat3 specifically in the bulge region of the hair follicle using K15.CrePR1 X Stat3fl/fl mice led to decreased tumor development by altering survival of bulge region KSCs. To further understand the role of KSCs in skin tumorigenesis, K5.Stat3C transgenic (Tg) mice which express a constitutively active/dimerized form of Stat3 called Stat3C via the bovine keratin 5 (K5) promoter were studied. The number of CD34 and α6 integrin positive cells was significantly reduced in Tg mice as compared to non-transgenic (NTg) littermates. There was a concomitant increase in the progenitor populations (Lgr-6, Lrig-1 and Sca-1) in the Tg mice vs. the stem cell population (CD34 and Keratin15). To investigate the mechanism underlying the increase in the progenitor population at the expense of bulge region KSCs we examined if Stat3C expression was involved in inducing migration of the bulge region KSCs. There was altered β-catenin and α6-integrin expression in the hair follicles of Tg mice, which may have contributed to reduced adhesive interactions between the epithelial cells and the basement membrane facilitating migration out of the niche. To further study the effect of Stat3 on differentiation of keratinocytes we analyzed the epidermal keratinocytes in K5.Cre X Stat3fl/fl mice. There was an increase in the expression of epidermal differentiation markers in the Stat3 knockout mice. These data suggest that deletion of Stat3 in the epidermis and hair follicle induced differentiation in these cells. Preliminary studies done with the BK5.Stat3C mouse model suggests that multiple hair follicle stem/progenitor populations may be involved in skin tumor development and progression in this model of skin tumorigenesis. Overall, these data suggest that Stat3 plays an important role in differentiation as well as migration of keratinocytes and that these effects may play a role during epithelial carcinogenesis.

Adaptive clinical trial design for targeted therapy development

The development of targeted therapy involve many challenges. Our study will address some of the key issues involved in biomarker identification and clinical trial design. In our study, we propose two biomarker selection methods, and then apply them in two different clinical trial designs for targeted therapy development. In particular, we propose a Bayesian two-step lasso procedure for biomarker selection in the proportional hazards model in Chapter 2. In the first step of this strategy, we use the Bayesian group lasso to identify the important marker groups, wherein each group contains the main effect of a single marker and its interactions with treatments. In the second step, we zoom in to select each individual marker and the interactions between markers and treatments in order to identify prognostic or predictive markers using the Bayesian adaptive lasso. In Chapter 3, we propose a Bayesian two-stage adaptive design for targeted therapy development while implementing the variable selection method given in Chapter 2. In Chapter 4, we proposed an alternate frequentist adaptive randomization strategy for situations where a large number of biomarkers need to be incorporated in the study design. We also propose a new adaptive randomization rule, which takes into account the variations associated with the point estimates of survival times. In all of our designs, we seek to identify the key markers that are either prognostic or predictive with respect to treatment. We are going to use extensive simulation to evaluate the operating characteristics of our methods.^

Instrumental variable method for the causal relationship between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE) and risk of pancreatic cancer

This thesis project is motivated by the potential problem of using observational data to draw inferences about a causal relationship in observational epidemiology research when controlled randomization is not applicable. Instrumental variable (IV) method is one of the statistical tools to overcome this problem. Mendelian randomization study uses genetic variants as IVs in genetic association study. In this thesis, the IV method, as well as standard logistic and linear regression models, is used to investigate the causal association between risk of pancreatic cancer and the circulating levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE). Higher levels of serum sRAGE were found to be associated with a lower risk of pancreatic cancer in a previous observational study (255 cases and 485 controls). However, such a novel association may be biased by unknown confounding factors. In a case-control study, we aimed to use the IV approach to confirm or refute this observation in a subset of study subjects for whom the genotyping data were available (178 cases and 177 controls). Two-stage IV method using generalized method of moments-structural mean models (GMM-SMM) was conducted and the relative risk (RR) was calculated. In the first stage analysis, we found that the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2070600 of the receptor for advanced glycation end-products (AGER) gene meets all three general assumptions for a genetic IV in examining the causal association between sRAGE and risk of pancreatic cancer. The variant allele of SNP rs2070600 of the AGER gene was associated with lower levels of sRAGE, and it was neither associated with risk of pancreatic cancer, nor with the confounding factors. It was a potential strong IV (F statistic = 29.2). However, in the second stage analysis, the GMM-SMM model failed to converge due to non- concaveness probably because of the small sample size. Therefore, the IV analysis could not support the causality of the association between serum sRAGE levels and risk of pancreatic cancer. Nevertheless, these analyses suggest that rs2070600 was a potentially good genetic IV for testing the causality between the risk of pancreatic cancer and sRAGE levels. A larger sample size is required to conduct a credible IV analysis.^

Modulation of cytochrome P450 enzyme activity and PAH -induced skin carcinogenesis by naturally occurring coumarins

The present study was designed to determine the potential anticarcinogenic activity of naturally occurring coumarins and their mechanism of action. The results indicated that several naturally occurring coumarins including bergamottin, coriandrin, imperatorin, isopimpinellin, and ostruthin, to which humans are routinely exposed in the diet, were effective inhibitors and/or inactivators of CYP1A1-mediated ethoxyresorufin-O-dealkylase (EROD) or CYP2B1-mediated pentoxyresorufin-O-dealkylase (PROD) in mouse liver microsomes. In addition, bergamottin and corandrin were also found to be inhibitors of purified human P450 1A1 in vitro. Further studies with coriandrin revealed that this compound was a mechanism-based inactivator of P450 1A1 and covalently bound to the P450 1A1 apoprotein. In cultured mouse keratinocytes, bergamottin and coriandrin effectively inhibited the B(a) P metabolism and significantly decreased covalent binding of B(a) P and DMBA to keratinocyte DNA and anti-diol-epoxide-DNA adducts derived from both B(a) P and DMBA in keratinocytes. The data from in vivo experiments showed that bergamottin and coriandrin were potent inhibitors of covalent binding of B (a) P to epidermal DNA and the formation of (+) anti BPDE-DNA adduct, whereas imperatorin and isopimpinellin were more potent inhibitors of covalent binding of DMBA to epidermal DNA. The ability of coumarins to inhibit covalent binding of B (a) P to DNA in mouse epidermis was positively correlated with their inhibitory effect P450 1A1 in vitro, while the inhibitory effect of coumarins on covalent binding of DMBA to epidermal DNA was positively correlated with their inhibitory effects on P450 2B1 and negatively to their inhibitory activity toward P450 1A1. The data from tumor experiments indicated that bergamottin, ostruthin, and coriandrin inhibited tumor initiation by B (a) P in a two-stage carcinogenesis protocol. Bergamottin was most effective in this regard and produced a dose dependent inhibition of papilloma formation in these experiments. In addition, imperatorin was an effective inhibitor of skin tumorigenesis induced by DMBA in SENCAR mouse skin using both a two-stage and a complete carcinogenesis protocol. At dose levels higher than those effective against DMBA, imperatorin also inhibited tumor initiation by B (a) P. The results to date demonstrate that several naturally occurring coumarins possess the ability to block tumor initiation and tumorigenesis by PAHs such as B (a) P and DMBA through inhibition of the P450s involved in the metabolic activation of these hydrocarbons. A working model for the involvement of specific P450s in the metabolic activation of these two PAHs was proposed. ^

Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Biochemical Engineering Symposium

The nineteenth symposium was held at the University of Missouri–Columbia on April 22, 1989. A total of eighteen papers were scheduled for presentation, of which nine were in poster session. Finally, fifteen papers were presented and sixteen were submitted for this proceedings. It was attended by 53 participants from five institutions. A sixth group (from Colorado State University) was kept from attending the symposium due to mechanical problems on the road and we missed them. Since they worked hard at their presentations, I requested CSU-group to submit their papers for the proceedings and I am happy that they did. ContentsMathematical modelling of a flour milling system. K. Takahashi, Y. Chen, J. Hosokoschi, and L. T. Fan. Kansas State University A novel solution to the problem of plasmid segregation in continuous bacterial fermentations. K.L. Henry, R. H. Davis, and A. L. Taylor. University of Colorado Modelling of embryonic growth in avian and reptile Eggs. C.L. Krause, R. C. Seagrave, and R. A. Ackerman. Iowa State University Mathematical modeling of in situ biodegradation processes. J.C. Wu, L. T. Fan, and L. E. Erickson. Kansas State University Effect of molecular changes on starch viscosity. C.H. Rosane and V. G. Murphy. Colorado State University Analysis of two stage recombinant bacterial fermentations using a structured kinetic model. F. Miao and D. S. Kampala. University of Colorado Lactic acid fermentation from enzyme-thinned starch by Lactobacillus amylovorus. P.S. Cheng, E. L. Iannotti, R. K. Bajpai, R. Mueller, and s. Yaeger. University of Missouri–Columbia Solubilization of preoxidized Texas lignite by cell-free broths of Penicillium strains. R. Moolick, M. N. Karim, J. C. Linden, and B. L. Burback. Colorado State University Separation of proteins from polyelectrolytes by ultrafiltration. A.G. Bazzano and C. E. Glatz. Iowa State University Growth estimation and modelling of Rhizopus oligosporus in solid state fermentations. D.-H. Ryoo, V. G. Murphy, M. N. Karim, and R. P. Tengerdy. Colorado State University Simulation of ethanol fermentations from sugars in cheese whey. C.J. Wang and R. K. Bajpai. University of Missouri–Columbia Studies on protoplast fusion of B. licheniformis. B. Shi, Kansas State University Cell separations of non-dividing and dividing yeasts using an inclined settler. C.-Y. Lee, R. H. Davis, and R. A. Sclafani. University of Colorado Effect of·serum upon local hydrodynamics within an airlift column. G.T. Jones, L. E. Erickson, and L. A. Glasgow. Kansas State University Optimization of heterologous protein secretion in continuous culture. A. Chatterjee, W. F. Remirez, and R. H. Davis. University of Colorado An improved model for lactic acid fermentation. P. Yeh, R. K. Bajpai, and E. L. Iannotti. University of Missouri–Columbia

Nd and Sr isotopic composition of Cretaceous MORB

Chemical and isotopic (Nd and Sr) compositions have been determined for 12 Cretaceous basaltic samples (108 Ma old) from Holes 417D and 418A of Legs 51,52 and 53. We have found that: (1) The chemical compositions are typical of MORB. They do not vary systematically with the stratigraphic positions of the analyzed samples; thus, the chemical evolution is independent of the eruption sequence that occurred at this Cretaceous ridge. (2) REE patterns for all rocks are characterized by a strong LREE depletion with (La/Sm)N = 0.38-0.50; no significant Eu anomalies are found; HREE are nearly flat or slightly depleted towards Yb-Lu and have 12-18 * chondritic abundances. Combining the results of previous studies, it suggests that no significant temporal and spatial variation in magma chemistry (especially for LIL elements) has occurred in the 'normal' ridge segments over the last 150 Ma. (3) lsotopically, 143Nd/144Nd ratios vary from 0.513026 to 0.513154, corresponding to epsilon-Nd(0) = +7.5 to +10, and they fall in the typical range of MORB. However, these rocks have unexpectedly high 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.70355-0.70470) which are attributed to the result of seawater-rock interaction. (4) The Nd model ages (Tin), ranging from 1.53 to 2.47 (average 2.06) AE, suggest that the upper mantle source(s) underwent a large scale chemical differentiation leading to LREE and other LIL element depletion about 2 AE ago, assuming a simple two-stage model. More realistically, the variation in Tm(Nd) or epsilon-Nd could be derived from mixing of heterogeneous mantle sources that were a consequence of continuous mantle differentiation and continental formation. (5) Because of the low mg values (0.52-0.63), the analyzed basaltic rocks do not represent primary liquids of mantle melting. The variation in La/Sm ratios and TiO2 are not compatible with a model in which all rocks are genetically related by a simple fractional crystallization. Rather, it is proposed that the basaltic rocks might have been derived from some heterogeneous upper mantle source with or without later magmatic mixing, and followed by some shallow-level fraetionations.