Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

Timing and climatic imprint of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from Northern Turkey

A 50 kyr-long exceptionally well-dated and highly resolved stalagmite oxygen (δ 18O) and carbon (δ 13C) isotope record from Sofular Cave in northwestern Turkey helps to further improve the dating of Greenland Interstadials (GI) 1, and 3–12. Timing of most GI in the Sofular record is consistent within ±10 to 300 years with the “iconic” Hulu Cave record. Larger divergences (>500 years) between Sofular and Hulu are only observed for GI 4 and 7. The Sofular record differs from the most recent NGRIP chronology by up to several centuries, whereas age offsets do not increase systematically with depth. The Sofular record also reveals a rapid and sensitive climate and ecosystem response in the eastern Mediterranean to GI, whereas a phase lag of ∼100 years between climate and full ecosystem response is evident. Finally, results of spectral analyses of the Sofular isotope records do not support a 1,470-year pacing of GI.

Diagnosing atmosphere–land feedbacks in CMIP5 climate models

Human-made transformations to the environment, and in particular the land surface, are having a large impact on the distribution (in both time and space) of rainfall, upon which all life is reliant. Focusing on precipitation, soil moisture and near-surface temperature, we compare data from Phase 5 of the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), as well as blended observational–satellite data, to see how the interaction between rainfall and the land surface differs (or agrees) between the models and reality, at daily timescales. As expected, the results suggest a strong positive relationship between precipitation and soil moisture when precipitation leads and is concurrent with soil moisture estimates, for the tropics as a whole. Conversely a negative relationship is shown when soil moisture leads rainfall by a day or more. A weak positive relationship between precipitation and temperature is shown when either leads by one day, whereas a weak negative relationship is shown over the same time period between soil moisture and temperature. Temporally, in terms of lag and lead relationships, the models appear to be in agreement on the overall patterns of correlation between rainfall and soil moisture. However, in terms of spatial patterns, a comparison of these relationships across all available models reveals considerable variability in the ability of the models to reproduce the correlations between precipitation and soil moisture. There is also a difference in the timings of the correlations, with some models showing the highest positive correlations when precipitation leads soil moisture by one day. Finally, the results suggest that there are 'hotspots' of high linear gradients between precipitation and soil moisture, corresponding to regions experiencing heavy rainfall. These results point to an inability of the CMIP5 models to simulate a positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation at daily timescales. Longer timescale comparisons and experiments at higher spatial resolutions, where the impact of the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall on the initiation of convection and supply of moisture is included, would be expected to improve process understanding further.

Accommodation and vergence response gains to different near cues characterize specific esotropias

Aim. To describe preliminary findings of how the profile of the use of blur, disparity and proximal cues varies between non-strabismic groups and those with different types of esotropia. Design. Case control study Methodology. A remote haploscopic photorefractor measured simultaneous convergence and accommodation to a range of targets containing all combinations of binocular disparity, blur and proximal (looming) cues. 13 constant esotropes, 16 fully accommodative esotropes, and 8 convergence excess esotropes were compared with age and refractive error matched controls, and 27 young adult emmetropic controls. All wore full refractive correction if not emmetropic. Response AC/A and CA/C ratios were also assessed. Results. Cue use differed between the groups. Even esotropes with constant suppression and no binocular vision (BV) responded to disparity in cues. The constant esotropes with weak BV showed trends for more stable responses and better vergence and accommodation than those without any BV. The accommodative esotropes made less use of disparity cues to drive accommodation (p=0.04) and more use of blur to drive vergence (p=0.008) than controls. All esotropic groups failed to show the strong bias for better responses to disparity cues found in the controls, with convergence excess esotropes favoring blur cues. AC/A and CA/C ratios existed in an inverse relationship in the different groups. Accommodative lag of >1.0D at 33cm was common (46%) in the pooled esotropia groups compared with 11% in typical children (p=0.05). Conclusion. Esotropic children use near cues differently from matched non-esotropic children in ways characteristic to their deviations. Relatively higher weighting for blur cues was found in accommodative esotropia compared to matched controls.

A global picture of the seasonal persistence of stratospheric ozone anomalies

Interannual anomalies in vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone, in both equatorial and extratropical regions, have been shown to exhibit a strong seasonal persistence, namely, extended temporal autocorrelations during certain times of the calendar year. Here we investigate the relationship between this seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies using the SAGE‐corrected SBUV data set, which provides a long‐term ozone profile time series. For the regions of the stratosphere where ozone is under purely dynamical or purely photochemical control, the seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies arises from distinct mechanisms but preserves an anticorrelation between tropical and extratropical anomalies established during the winter period. In the 16–10 hPa layer, where ozone is controlled by both dynamical and photochemical processes, equatorial ozone anomalies exhibit a completely different behavior compared to ozone anomalies above and below in terms of variability, seasonal persistence, and especially the relationship between equatorial and extratropical ozone. Cross‐latitude‐time correlations show that for the 16–10 hPa layer, Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical ozone anomalies show the same variability as equatorial ozone anomalies but lagged by 3–6 months. High correlation coefficients are observed during the time frame of seasonal persistence of ozone anomalies, which is June– December for equatorial ozone and shifts by approximately 3–6 months when going from the equatorial region to NH extratropics. Thus in the transition zone between dynamical and photochemical control, equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal summer/autumn are mirrored by NH extratropical ozone anomalies with a time lag similar to transport time scales. Equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal winter/spring are likewise correlated with ozone anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics with a time lag comparable to transport time scales, similar to what is seen in the NH. However, the correlations between equatorial and SH extratropical ozone in the 10–16 hPa layer are weak.

Some numerical experiments on the effect of the variation of static stability in two-layer quasi-geostrophic models

A method to solve a quasi-geostrophic two-layer model including the variation of static stability is presented. The divergent part of the wind is incorporated by means of an iterative procedure. The procedure is rather fast and the time of computation is only 60–70% longer than for the usual two-layer model. The method of solution is justified by the conservation of the difference between the gross static stability and the kinetic energy. To eliminate the side-boundary conditions the experiments have been performed on a zonal channel model. The investigation falls mainly into three parts: The first part (section 5) contains a discussion of the significance of some physically inconsistent approximations. It is shown that physical inconsistencies are rather serious and for these inconsistent models which were studied the total kinetic energy increased faster than the gross static stability. In the next part (section 6) we are studying the effect of a Jacobian difference operator which conserves the total kinetic energy. The use of this operator in two-layer models will give a slight improvement but probably does not have any practical use in short periodic forecasts. It is also shown that the energy-conservative operator will change the wave-speed in an erroneous way if the wave-number or the grid-length is large in the meridional direction. In the final part (section 7) we investigate the behaviour of baroclinic waves for some different initial states and for two energy-consistent models, one with constant and one with variable static stability. According to the linear theory the waves adjust rather rapidly in such a way that the temperature wave will lag behind the pressure wave independent of the initial configuration. Thus, both models give rise to a baroclinic development even if the initial state is quasi-barotropic. The effect of the variation of static stability is very small, qualitative differences in the development are only observed during the first 12 hours. For an amplifying wave we will get a stabilization over the troughs and an instabilization over the ridges.

Development of antimicrobial synbiotics using potentially-probiotic faecal isolates of Lactobacillus fermentum and Bifidobacterium longum

The aims of the present study were to investigate in vitro the antimicrobial activity of Lactobacillus fermentum and Bifidobacterium longum, isolated from faeces of healthy elderly individuals, against enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (E. coli O157:H7) and enteropathogenic E. coli (E. coli O86), to determine the capability of the selected strains to tolerate acid and bile in vitro, to select suitable carbohydrates in order to enhance the growth and maximise antimicrobial activity of the putative probiotic organisms and examine the adhesion properties of the synbiotics. Antimicrobial activity of the putative probiotics and synbiotics was investigated by a microtitre method using cell-free culture supernatants (CFCS). Results of the antimicrobial assay showed that both putative probiotic strains produced compounds at pH 5 that lead to higher lag phases of both E. coli O157:H7 and E. coli O86. When half the quantity of cell-free culture supernatants of both probiotic strains was used at pH 5, B. longum maintained the same antimicrobial effect against both strains of E. coli, whereas L. fermentum lead to a higher lag phase of E. coli O86 only. Neutralization of the culture supernatants with alkali reduced the antimicrobial effect with only cell-free supernatant of L. fermentum causing lower maximum growth rates of E. coli O157:H7 and E. coli O86. L. fermentum appeared to be acid tolerant whereas B. longum was more susceptible to acid and both isolates were bile tolerant. A short chain fructooligosaccharide (scFOS) and an isomalto-oligosaccharide (IMO) proved to be the most effective substrates, enhancing antimicrobial activity for L. fermentum and B. longum respectively. The adhesion of the synbiotic combinations showed that L. fermentum, exhibited higher percentage of adhesion when grown on glucose and as a synbiotic combination with scFOS whereas B. longum exhibited lowest percentage of adhesion when grown on both glucose and IMO.

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

In-situ comparison of the NOy instruments flown in MOZAIC and SPURT

Two aircraft instruments for the measurement of total odd nitrogen (NOy) were compared side by side aboard a Learjet A35 in April 2003 during a campaign of the AFO2000 project SPURT (Spurengastransport in der Tropopausenregion). The instruments albeit employing the same measurement principle (gold converter and chemiluminescence) had different inlet configurations. The ECO-Physics instrument operated by ETH-Zürich in SPURT had the gold converter mounted outside the aircraft, whereas the instrument operated by FZ-Jülich in the European project MOZAIC III (Measurements of ozone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides aboard Airbus A340 in-service aircraft) employed a Rosemount probe with 80 cm of FEP-tubing connecting the inlet to the gold converter. The NOy concentrations during the flight ranged between 0.3 and 3 ppb. The two data sets were compared in a blind fashion and each team followed its normal operating procedures. On average, the measurements agreed within 7%, i.e. within the combined uncertainty of the two instruments. This puts an upper limit on potential losses of HNO3 in the Rosemount inlet of the MOZAIC instrument. Larger transient deviations were observed during periods after calibrations and when the aircraft entered the stratosphere. The time lag of the MOZAIC instrument observed in these instances is in accordance with the time constant of the MOZAIC inlet line determined in the laboratory for HNO3.

Balanced excitation and inhibition: Model based analysis of local field potentials

We have developed a model of the local field potential (LFP) based on the conservation of charge, the independence principle of ionic flows and the classical Hodgkin–Huxley (HH) type intracellular model of synaptic activity. Insights were gained through the simulation of the HH intracellular model on the nonlinear relationship between the balance of synaptic conductances and that of post-synaptic currents. The latter is dependent not only on the former, but also on the temporal lag between the excitatory and inhibitory conductances, as well as the strength of the afferent signal. The proposed LFP model provides a method for decomposing the LFP recordings near the soma of layer IV pyramidal neurons in the barrel cortex of anaesthetised rats into two highly correlated components with opposite polarity. The temporal dynamics and the proportional balance of the two components are comparable to the excitatory and inhibitory post-synaptic currents computed from the HH model. This suggests that the two components of the LFP reflect the underlying excitatory and inhibitory post-synaptic currents of the local neural population. We further used the model to decompose a sequence of evoked LFP responses under repetitive electrical stimulation (5 Hz) of the whisker pad. We found that as neural responses adapted, the excitatory and inhibitory components also adapted proportionately, while the temporal lag between the onsets of the two components increased during frequency adaptation. Our results demonstrated that the balance between neural excitation and inhibition can be investigated using extracellular recordings. Extension of the model to incorporate multiple compartments should allow more quantitative interpretations of surface Electroencephalography (EEG) recordings into components reflecting the excitatory, inhibitory and passive ionic current flows generated by local neural populations.

High sensitivity recording of afferent nerve activity using ultra-compliant microchannel electrodes: an acutein vivovalidation

Neuroprostheses interfaced with transected peripheral nerves are technological routes to control robotic limbs as well as convey sensory feedback to patients suffering from traumatic neural injuries or degenerative diseases. To maximize the wealth of data obtained in recordings, interfacing devices are required to have intrafascicular resolution and provide high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) recordings. In this paper, we focus on a possible building block of a three-dimensional regenerative implant: a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microchannel electrode capable of highly sensitive recordings in vivo. The PDMS 'micro-cuff' consists of a 3.5 mm long (100 µm × 70 µm cross section) microfluidic channel equipped with five evaporated Ti/Au/Ti electrodes of sub-100 nm thickness. Individual electrodes have average impedance of 640 ± 30 kΩ with a phase angle of −58 ± 1 degrees at 1 kHz and survive demanding mechanical handling such as twisting and bending. In proof-of-principle acute implantation experiments in rats, surgically teased afferent nerve strands from the L5 dorsal root were threaded through the microchannel. Tactile stimulation of the skin was reliably monitored with the three inner electrodes in the device, simultaneously recording signal amplitudes of up to 50 µV under saline immersion. The overall SNR was approximately 4. A small but consistent time lag between the signals arriving at the three electrodes was observed and yields a fibre conduction velocity of 30 m s−1. The fidelity of the recordings was verified by placing the same nerve strand in oil and recording activity with hook electrodes. Our results show that PDMS microchannel electrodes open a promising technological path to 3D regenerative interfaces.

Multiwavelength Observations of EXO 0748-676. I. Reprocessing of X-Ray Bursts

We present high time-resolution multiwavelength observations of X-ray bursts in the low-mass X-ray binary UY Vol. Strong reprocessed signals are present in the ultraviolet and optical, lagged and smeared with respect to the X-rays. The addition of far-ultraviolet coverage for one burst allows much tighter constraints on the temperature and geometry of the reprocessing region than previously possible. A blackbody reprocessing model for this burst suggests a rise in temperatures during the burst from 18,000 to 35,000 K and an emitting area comparable to that expected for the disk and/or irradiated companion star. The lags are consistent with those expected. The single-zone blackbody model cannot reproduce the ratio of optical to ultraviolet flux during the burst, however. The discrepancy seems too large to explain with deviations from a local blackbody spectrum and more likely indicates that a range of reprocessing temperatures are required. Comparable results are derived from other bursts, and in particular the lag and smearing both appear shorter when the companion star is on the near side of the disk as predicted. The burst observed by HST also yielded a spectrum of the reprocessed light. It is dominated by continuum, with a spectral shape consistent with the temperatures derived from lightcurve modeling. Taken as a whole, our observations confirm the standard paradigm of prompt reprocessing distributed across the disk and companion star, with the response dominated by a thermalized continuum rather than by emission lines.

Global patterns of vegetation response to millennial-scale variability and rapid climate change during the last glacial period

Ninety-four sites worldwide have sufficient resolution and dating to document the impact of millennial-scale climate variability on vegetation and fire regimes during the last glacial period. Although Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles all show a basically similar gross structure, they vary in the magnitude and the length of the warm and cool intervals. We illustrate the geographic patterns in the climate-induced changes in vegetation by comparing D–O 6, D–O 8 and D–O 19. There is a strong response to both D–O warming events and subsequent cooling, most marked in the northern extratropics. Pollen records from marine cores from the northern extratropics confirm that there is no lag between the change in climate and the vegetation response, within the limits of the dating resolution (50–100 years). However, the magnitude of the change in vegetation is regionally specific and is not a simple function of either the magnitude or the duration of the change in climate as registered in Greenland ice cores. Fire regimes also show an initial immediate response to climate changes, but during cooling intervals there is a slow recovery of biomass burning after the initial reduction, suggesting a secondary control through the recovery of vegetation productivity. In the extratropics, vegetation changes are largely determined by winter temperatures while in the tropics they are largely determined by changes in plant-available water. Tropical vegetation records show changes corresponding to Heinrich Stadials but the response to D–O warming events is less marked than in the northern extratropics. There are very few high-resolution records from the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, but these records also show both a vegetation and fire response to millennial-scale climate variability. It is not yet possible to determine unequivocally whether terrestrial records reflect the asynchroneity apparent in the ice-core records.

The transient versus the equilibrium response of sea ice to global warming

To examine the long-term stability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, idealized simulations are carried out with the climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased over 2000 years from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling, is then kept constant for 5940 years, is afterwards decreased over 2000 years to pre-industrial levels, and finally kept constant for 3940 years.Despite these very slow changes, the sea-ice response significantly lags behind the CO2 concentration change. This lag, which is caused by the ocean’s thermal inertia, implies that the sea-ice equilibrium response to increasing CO2 concentration is substantially underestimated by transient simulations. The sea-ice response to CO2 concentration change is not truly hysteretic and in principle reversible.We find no lag in the evolution of Arctic sea ice relative to changes in annual-mean northern-hemisphere surface temperature. The summer sea-ice cover changes linearly with respect to both CO2 concentration and temper...

Cross-correlations and cross-bicorrelations in Sterling exchange rates

This paper proposes two new tests for linear and nonlinear lead/lag relationships between time series based on the concepts of cross-correlations and cross-bicorrelations, respectively. The tests are then applied to a set of Sterling-denominated exchange rates. Our analysis indicates that there existed periods during the post-Bretton Woods era where the temporal relationship between different exchange rates was strong, although these periods have become less frequent over the past 20 years. In particular, our results demonstrate the episodic nature of the nonlinearity, and have implications for the speed of flow of information between financial series. The method generalises recently proposed tests for nonlinearity to the multivariate context.