Modelling the growth of young individuals of Pinus nigra on thin carbonate soils under climate change in Hungary

Climate change highly impacts on tree growth and also threatens the forest of the karstic terrains. From the 1980s the frequency of decay events of the Pinus nigra Arnold forests showed a marked increase in Hungary. To understanding the vulnerability of Pinus nigra forests to climate change on shallow karstic soils in continental-sub Mediterranean climatic conditions we developed the study of three sampled population in the typical karstic landscape of Veszprém in North Transdanubia. We built our model on non-invasive approach using the annual growth of the individuals. MPI Echam5 climate model and as aridity index the Thornthwaite Agrometeorological Index were used. Our results indicate that soil thickness up to 11 cm has a major influence on the main growth intensity, however, aridity determines the annual growth rate. Our model results showed that the increasing decay frequency in the last decades was a parallel change to the decreasing growth rate of pines. The climate model predicts the similar, increased decay frequency to the presents. Our results can be valid for a wider areas of the periphery of Mediterranean climate zone while the annual-growth based model is a cost-effective and simple method to study the vitality of pine trees in a given area.

The effects of climate on the growth and physiology of tropical rainforest trees

Tropical rainforests account for more than a third of global net primary production and contain more than half of the global forest carbon. Though these forests are a disproportionately important component of the global carbon cycle, the relationship between rainforest productivity and climate remains poorly understood. Understanding the link between current climate and rainforest tree stem diameter increment, a major constituent of forest productivity, will be crucial to efforts at modeling future climate and rainforest response to climate change. This work reports the physiological and stem growth responses to micrometeorological and phenological states of ten species of canopy trees in a Costa Rican wet tropical forest at sub-annual time intervals. I measured tree growth using band dendrometers and estimated leaf and reproductive phenological states monthly. Electronic data loggers recorded xylem sap flow (an indicator of photosynthetic rate) and weather at half-hour intervals. An analysis of xylem sap flow showed that physiological responses were independent of species, which allowed me to construct a general model of weather driven sap flow rates. This model predicted more than eighty percent of climate driven sap flow variation. Leaf phenology influenced growth in three of the ten species, with two of these species showing a link between leaf phenology and weather. A combination of rainfall, air temperature, and irradiance likely provided the cues that triggered leaf drop in Dipteryx panamensis and Lecythis ampla. Combining the results of the sap flow model, growth, and the climate measures showed tree growth was correlated to climate, though the majority of growth variation remained unexplained. Low variance in the environmental variables and growth rates likely contributed to the large amount of unexplained variation. A simple model that included previous growth increment and three meteorological variables explained from four to nearly fifty percent of the growth variation. Significant growth carryover existed in six of the ten species, and rainfall was positively correlated to growth in eight of the ten species. Minimum nighttime temperature was also correlated to higher growth rates in five of the species and irradiance in two species. These results indicate that tropical rainforest tree trunks could act as carbon sinks if future climate becomes wetter and slightly warmer. ^

Pollen and macrofossil profiles from six cores in Illinois, U.S.A

Pollen analysis of Wisconsinan sediments from eleven localities in northern and central Illinois, combined with the results of older studies, allows a first general survey of the vegetational changes in Illinois during the last glaciation. In the late Altonian (after 40,000 B.P.), pine was already the most prevalent tree type in northern Illinois. Probably because of the influence of the last Altonian ice advance to northern Illinois, pine migrated to the south and reached south-central Illinois, which was at that time a region of prairie, with oak and hickory trees in favorable sites. Likewise in the late Altonian, spruce appeared in northern Illinois. Spruce also expanded its area to the south during the Wisconsinan, reaching south-central Illinois only after 21,000 B.P., in the early Woodfordian. Deciduous trees (predominantly oak) were present in south-central Illinois throughout the Wisconsinan. Their prevalence decreased to the north. The vegetation during the different subdivisions of the last glacial period in Illinois was approximately as follows: Late Altonian: Pine/spruce forest with some deciduous trees in northern and central Illinois; prairie and oak/hickory stands in south-central Illinois; immigration of pine. Farmdalian: Pine/spruce forest in central Illinois; deciduous trees and pine in south-central Illinois, with areas of open vegetation, perhaps similar to the present-day transition of prairie to forest in the northern Great Plains. Woodfordian: Northern and central Illinois ice covered; in south central Illinois, spruce and oak as dominant tree types, but also pine and grassland. During the Woodfordian, pine and spruce disappeared again from south-central Illinois, and oak/hickory forest and prairie again prevailed. The ice-free areas of northern Illinois become populated temporarily with spruce, but later there is proof of deciduous forest in this region. Pollen investigations in south-central Illinois have shown convincingly that deciduous trees could survive relatively close (less than 60 km) to the ice margin. Therefore the frequently presented view that arctic climatic conditions prevailed in North America during the last glaciation far south of the ice margin can be refuted for the Illinois area, confirming the opinion of other authors resulting from investigations of fossil mollusks and frost-soil features. The small number of localities investigated still permits no complete reconstruction of the vegetation zones and their possible movements in Illinois. During the Altonian and Farmdalian in Illinois, a vegetational zonation probably existed similar to that of today in North America. As the ice pushed southward as far as 39° 20' N. lat in the early Woodfordian, this zonation was apparently broken up under the influence of a relatively moderate climate. In any case, the Vandalia area, which was only about 60 km south of the ice, was at that time neither in a tundra zone nor in a zone of boreal coniferous forest.

Drought index from tree-rings in Kongton Mountains, China

The Kongtong Mountain area is a marginal area of the Asian summer monsoon and is sensitive to monsoon dynamics. The sensitivity highlights the need to establishing long-term climate records there and evaluating links with the Asian monsoon. Using "signal-free" methods, we developed a tree-ring chronology based 52 ring-width series from 23 Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandidi trees in the Kongtong Mountain, northern China. Tree growth is highly correlated (0.844) with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July, demonstrating the strength of PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. We therefore developed a robust May-July PDSI reconstruction spanning 1615-2009, which explained 71.2% of the instrumental variance for the period 1951-2005. Extremely dry epochs are found in periods of 1723-1727 and 1928-1932, and significant wet conditions are seen from 1696-1700, 1753-1757 and 1963-1969. These persistent dry and wet epochs were also found in northeastern Mongolia, suggesting similar drought regimes between these two regions. The dryness that occurred in the 1920s-1930s was the most severe and was concurrent with a warming period. This warming/drying relationship of the 1920s-1930s may be an analog to the current drying trend in northern China.

New Principles in Planning Evaluation

Maintaining and enhancing living conditions in cities through a combination of physical planning and environmental management is a newly emerging focus of governments around the world. For example, local governments seek to insulate sensitive land uses such as residential areas from environmentally intrusive activities such as major transport facilities and manufacturing. Regional governments protect water quality and natural habitat by enforcing pollution controls and regulating the location of growth. Some national governments fund acquisition of strategically important sites, facilitate the renewal of brown fields, and even develop integrated environmental quality plans. This book provides recently developed and tested methods for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of planning and policy options. Several contributions focus on new substantive areas of concern in planning evaluation, including environmental justice and sustainable urban development. Applications of evaluation in several planning contexts are demonstrated, and special problems that these pose are assessed. Several chapters address how to communicate the process and results to several stakeholder groups, and how to engage these groups in the evaluation process. Each chapter employs a realworld case in practice, thus dealing with the complexity of applying planning evaluation, and providing practical advice useful in similar situations.

City dweller aspirations for cities of the future: How do environmental and personal wellbeing feature?

This paper explores city dweller aspirations for cities of the future in the context of global commitments to radically reduce carbon emissions by 2050; cities contribute the vast majority of these emissions and a growing bulk of theworld's population lives in cities. The particular challenge of creating a carbon reduced future in democratic countries is that the measures proposed must be acceptable to the electorate. Such acceptability is fostered if carbon reduced ways of living are also felt to bewellbeing maximising. Thus the objective of the paper is to explore what kinds of cities people aspire to live in, to ascertain whether these aspirations align with or undermine carbon reduced ways of living, as well as personal wellbeing. Using a novel free associative technique, city aspirations are found to cluster around seven themes, encompassing physical and social aspects. Physically, people aspire to a city with a range of services and facilities, green and blue spaces, efficient transport, beauty and good design. Socially, people aspire to a sense of community and a safe environment. An exploration of these themes reveals that only a minority of the participants' aspirations for cities relate to lowering carbon or environmental wellbeing. Far more consensual is emphasis on, and a particular vision of, aspirations that will bring personal wellbeing. Furthermore, city dweller aspirations align with evidence concerning factors that maximise personal wellbeing but, far less, with those that produce lowcarbonways of living. In order to shape a lower carbon future that city dwellers accept the potential convergence between environmental and personal wellbeing will need to be capitalised on: primarily aversion to pollution and enjoyment of communal green space.

Evaluating statistical and machine learning methods to predict risk of in-hospital child mortality in Uganda

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

EFFECT OF FARMING PRACTICES AND FARM HISTORY ON INCIDENCE OF COCONUT LETHAL YELLOWING IN MOZAMBIQUE

Management of coconut ( Cocos nucifera ) lethal yellowing disease (CLYD), which has killed about eight million coconut trees in Mozambique, has proved challenging. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of farming practices and related history, on the CLYD incidence in Mozambique. The methodology included a socioeconomic questionnaire to the households and direct observations on the palm farms. The collected data were analysed using logistic regression. Five out of 11 explanatory variables tested, namely farm age, availability of other palm species on the coconut farm, type of coconut varieties grown, root cut practices, and intercropping had a significant (P< 0.05) effect on CLYD incidence. Coconut farms <10 years had higher odds of higher disease incidence compared to the farms between 10 to 40 years old. The presence of other palm species in the coconut farms had two times higher odds of having higher disease incidence levels compared to farms without other palm species. Tall coconut varieties were likely to be more tolerant to CLYD compared to dwarf varieties. Coconut farms with some kind of intercropping had two times higher odds of having higher disease incidence levels compared to pure stands. The practice of cutting coconut roots had three times higher odds of having high disease incidence levels compared to non-practicing farms. Farm age, availability of other palm species on the coconut farm, type of coconut varieties grown, root cut practices and intercropping need to be considered for integrated CLYD management.

MOWING TO GROWING: TRANSFORMING A MUNICIPAL GOLF COURSE TO URBAN AGRICULTURE IN BALTIMORE CITY

This thesis demonstrates how landscape architects can transform underused golf course facilities located within cities for urban agriculture (UA). In the last decade more than 1000 golf courses have closed in the United States. Municipal golf courses represent some of the largest pieces of open space in cities and because of their inherent infrastructure they can provide the ideal location to support large-scale UA. In Southwest Baltimore large food deserts are a serious health concern and represent a lack of access to healthy food options for residents. Carroll Urban Agriculture Park is a design response resulting from a detailed analysis of the existing Carroll Park Golf Course and the surrounding community of Southwest Baltimore. The design will create an urban farm in a park-like setting to provide readily accessible healthy food options and various educational opportunities, and to support current and future urban agriculture related businesses in Baltimore.

GuiaTreeKey, a multi-access electronic key to identify tree genera in French Guiana

International audience

Assessing student perceptions and comprehension of climate change in portuguese higher education institutions

The higher education system has a critical role to play in educating environmentally aware and participant citizens about global climate change. Yet, few studies have focused on higher education students’ knowledge and attitudes about this issue. This study aims to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of views and attitudes about climate change issues, across the postgraduate student population in three universities—the on Campus University of Porto and University of Coimbra, and the distance learning Universidade Aberta, Portugal. We surveyed university students and graduates from three master programs in environmental sciences targeting their knowledge, attitudes and behaviour on climate change issues, and their views of the role that their master degree had on it. A majority of the respondents believed that climate change is factual, and is largely human-induced; and a majority expressed concerns about climate change. Still, the surveyed students hold some misconceptions about basic causes and consequences of climate change. Further research is necessary to comprehend the university postgraduate students’ population, so that curricula programs can be adapted to grant consensus on scientific knowledge about climate change, and an active engagement of the graduate citizens, as part of the solution for climate change problems.

Conservation of tropical forest tree species in a native timber plantation landscape

Tropical terrestrial environments are becoming dominated by anthropogenic land-uses, making retention of biodiversity in production landscapes of critical conservation importance. Native timber plantations may represent a land-use capable of balancing production and conservation by potentially supporting understorey plant and tree species otherwise restricted to old-growth forests, with little impact on yield. In this study we investigated the conservation value of native plantation forests in the lowlands of New Britain, Papua New Guinea. We compared the composition of tree species (≥10. cm DBH) of unlogged forest to those of different aged native Eucalyptus deglupta plantations and intervening (historically logged) secondary forests. We found a high capacity for biodiversity conservation within plantations, with 70% of forest tree species persisting in mature plantations (13-15. years old). However, compositional analyses revealed lower numbers of large individuals (≥10. cm DBH) in both late-successional and non-vertebrate-dispersed species in the plantations, indicating the difficulty of retaining mature old-growth forest trees in production land-uses. Secondary forest protected by conservation reserves was compositionally indistinct to unlogged forest. Our results demonstrate the potential for tropical native timber plantations to contribute to the retention of biodiversity. However, appropriate management is required to ensure the persistence of source populations of old-growth forest tree species. With careful planning a balance between production and conservation can be achieved in lowland tropical regions.

Hindu and Muslim women's everyday relations and agency: Gender and the Ganga-Jamni tehzib in Jaipur

Multireligious syncretism in cities is chiefly upheld by the engagements of everyday life where enduring bonds are formed and sustained. This article studies the feminised dimensions of the 'everyday' in the home and neighbourhood of Jaipur city in India, which it sees as spaces of everyday activities and encounters between communities in multireligious Indian cities. Women's mutual engagements and agency in these spaces are vital to support cohesive multireligious community development in Indian cities. However, patriarchal political Hindu injunctions against Hindu women engaging with the 'Muslim other' are strong, and they consciously and/or subconsciously influence the degree to which Hindu women allow themselves to engage with Muslim women in everyday interactions. It concludes that feminised multi-faith engagement is vital for communal peace and stability, and must be consciously invoked for community development in Indian cities.

Beech bark disease distribution and resistance in Michigan and fungal endophyte ecology of resistant and susceptible beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.)

Beech bark disease (BBD), a non-native association of the fungal pathogen Neonectria faginata and the beech scale insect Cryptococcus fagisuga, has dramatically affected American beech within North American forests. To monitor the spread and effects of BBD in Michigan, a network of forest health monitoring plots was established in 2001 following the disease discovery in Ludington State Park (Mason County). Forest health canopy condition and basic forestry measurements including basal area were reassessed on beech trees in these plots in 2011 and 2012. The influence of bark-inhabiting fungal endophytes on BBD resistance was investigated by collecting cambium tissue from apparently resistant and susceptible beech. Vigor rating showed significant influences of BBD in sample beech resulting in reduced health and substantiated by significant increases of dead beech basal area over time. C. fagisuga distribution was found to be spatially clustered and widespread in the 22 counties in Michigan's Lower Peninsula which contained monitoring plots. Neonectria has been found in Emmet, Cheboygan and Wexford in the Lower Peninsula which may coincide with additional BBD introduction locations. Surveys for BBD resistance resulted in five apparently resistant beech which were added to a BBD resistance database. The most frequently isolated endophytes from cambium tissue were identified by DNA sequencing primarily as Deuteromycetes and Ascomycetes including Chaetomium globosum, Neohendersonia kickxii and Fusarium flocciferum. N. faginata in antagonism trials showed significant growth reduction when paired with three beech fungal endophytes. The results of the antagonism trial and decay tests indicate that N. faginata may be a relatively poor competitor in vivo with limited ability to degrade cellulose.