Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Optimal methodology for distribution systems reconfiguration based on OPF and solved by decomposition technique

This paper presents a new and efficient methodology for distribution network reconfiguration integrated with optimal power flow (OPF) based on a Benders decomposition approach. The objective minimizes power losses, balancing load among feeders and subject to constraints: capacity limit of branches, minimum and maximum power limits of substations or distributed generators, minimum deviation of bus voltages and radial optimal operation of networks. The Generalized Benders decomposition algorithm is applied to solve the problem. The formulation can be embedded under two stages; the first one is the Master problem and is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem. This stage determines the radial topology of the distribution network. The second stage is the Slave problem and is formulated as a non-linear programming problem. This stage is used to determine the feasibility of the Master problem solution by means of an OPF and provides information to formulate the linear Benders cuts that connect both problems. The model is programmed in GAMS. The effectiveness of the proposal is demonstrated through two examples extracted from the literature.

A New Approach to Monitoring Touristic and Cultural Routes: The Challenge of Development and Use of Indicators-Based Systems

The present paper results of an ongoing research project were it is expected to develop an information system to monitoring a cultural-touristic route. The route to monitor is the Romanesque Route of Tâmega. This Route is composed of 58 monuments located in the region of Tâmega in the North of Portugal. Due to the particular location of this region, that is between coastal zone, but not yet in the inland, it has a weak political influence, and it is reflected in the low levels of development at several levels, observed. The Romanesque Route was implemented in a part of this region in 1998, and enlarged to the all-region in 2010. In order to evaluate the socio-ecomonic impact of this route in the region a research project is being developed. The main goal of this paper is to open a discussion on the elements that must be taken into consideration to evaluate the economic and social impact of a touristic cultural route within a region and this one in particular.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Comparison of inverse planning systems based on biological or physical factors: Pinnacle®, Corvus® and Monaco®

Radiotherapy (RT) is one of the most important approaches in the treatment of cancer and its performance can be improved in three different ways: through the optimization of the dose distribution, by the use of different irradiation techniques or through the study of radiobiological initiatives. The first is purely physical because is related to the physical dose distributiuon. The others are purely radiobiological because they increase the differential effect between the tumour and the health tissues. The Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) are used in RT to create dose distributions with the purpose to maximize the tumoral control and minimize the complications in the healthy tissues. The inverse planning uses dose optimization techniques that satisfy the criteria specified by the user, regarding the target and the organs at risk (OAR’s). The dose optimization is possible through the analysis of dose-volume histograms (DVH) and with the use of computed tomography, magnetic resonance and other digital image techniques.

Self-mated tribological systems based on multilayer micro/nanocrystalline CVD diamond coatings

The tribological response of multilayer micro/nanocrystalline diamond coatings grown by the hot filament CVD technique is investigated. These multigrade systems were tailored to comprise a starting microcrystalline diamond (MCD) layer with high adhesion to a silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic substrate, and a top nanocrystalline diamond (NCD) layer with reduced surface roughness. Tribological tests were carried out with a reciprocating sliding configuration without lubrication. Such composite coatings exhibit a superior critical load before delamination (130–200 N), when compared to the mono- (60–100 N) and bilayer coatings (110 N), considering ∼10 µm thick films. Regarding the friction behaviour, a short-lived initial high friction coefficient was followed by low friction regimes (friction coefficients between 0.02 and 0.09) as a result of the polished surfaces tailored by the tribological solicitation. Very mild to mild wear regimes (wear coefficient values between 4.1×10−8 and 7.7×10−7 mm3 N−1 m−1) governed the wear performance of the self-mated multilayer coatings when subjected to high-load short-term tests (60–200 N; 2 h; 86 m) and medium-load endurance tests (60 N; 16 h; 691 m).

Ethernet-based systems: contributions to the holistic analysis

A number of characteristics are boosting the eagerness of extending Ethernet to also cover factory-floor distributed real-time applications. Full-duplex links, non-blocking and priority-based switching, bandwidth availability, just to mention a few, are characteristics upon which that eagerness is building up. But, will Ethernet technologies really manage to replace traditional Fieldbus networks? To this question, Fieldbus fundamentalists often argue that the two technologies are not comparable. In fact, Ethernet technology, by itself, does not include features above the lower layers of the OSI communication model. Where are the higher layers that permit building real industrial applications? And, taking for free that they are available, what is the impact of those protocols, mechanisms and application models on the overall performance of Ethernetbased distributed factory-floor applications? In this paper we provide some contributions that may pave the way towards providing some reasonable answers to these issues.

Mechanisms for reflection-based monitoring of real- time systems

Monitoring is a very important aspect to consider when developing real-time systems. However, it is also important to consider the impact of the monitoring mechanisms in the actual application. The use of Reflection can provide a clear separation between the real-time application and the implemented monitoring mechanisms, which can be introduced (reflected) into the underlying system without changing the actual application part of the code. Nevertheless, controlling the monitoring system itself is still a topic of research. The monitoring mechanisms must contain knowledge about “how to get the information out”. Therefore, this paper presents the ongoing work to define a suitable strategy for monitoring real-time systems through the use of Reflection.

Designing real-time systems based on mono-master Profibus-DP networks

Profibus networks are widely used as the communication infrastructure for supporting distributed computer-controlled applications. Most of the times, these applications impose strict real-time requirements. Profibus-DP has gradually become the preferred Profibus application profile. It is usually implemented as a mono-master Profibus network, and is optimised for speed and efficiency. The aim of this paper is to analyse the real-time behaviour of this class of Profibus networks. Importantly, we develop a new methodology for evaluating the worst-case message response time in systems where high-priority and cyclic low-priority Profibus traffic coexist. The proposed analysis constitutes a powerful tool to guarantee prior to runtime the real-time behaviour of a distributed computer-controlled system based on a Profibus network, where the realtime traffic is supported either by high-priority or by cyclic poll Profibus messages.

INDEPTH: timeliness assessment of ethernet/IP-based systems

The continuous improvement of Ethernet technologies is boosting the eagerness of extending their use to cover factory-floor distributed real time applications. Indeed, it is remarkable the considerable amount of research work that has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies in the past few years. It happens, however, that the majority of those works are restricted to the analysis of sub-sets of the overall computing and communication system, thus without addressing timeliness in a holistic fashion. To this end, we address an approach, based on simulation, aiming at extracting temporal properties of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) Ethernet-based factory-floor distributed systems. This framework is applied to a specific COTS technology, Ethernet/IP. We reason about the modeling and simulation of Ethernet/IP-based systems, and on the use of statistical analysis techniques to provide useful results on timeliness. The approach is part of a wider framework related to the research project INDEPTH NDustrial-Ethernet ProTocols under Holistic analysis.

Multi-μ: an Ada 95 based architecture for fault tolerance support of real-time systems

This paper presents an architecture (Multi-μ) being implemented to study and develop software based fault tolerant mechanisms for Real-Time Systems, using the Ada language (Ada 95) and Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components. Several issues regarding fault tolerance are presented and mechanisms to achieve fault tolerance by software active replication in Ada 95 are discussed. The Multi-μ architecture, based on a specifically proposed Fault Tolerance Manager (FTManager), is then described. Finally, some considerations are made about the work being done and essential future developments.

A feedback-based decentralised coordination model for distributed open real-time systems

Moving towards autonomous operation and management of increasingly complex open distributed real-time systems poses very significant challenges. This is particularly true when reaction to events must be done in a timely and predictable manner while guaranteeing Quality of Service (QoS) constraints imposed by users, the environment, or applications. In these scenarios, the system should be able to maintain a global feasible QoS level while allowing individual nodes to autonomously adapt under different constraints of resource availability and input quality. This paper shows how decentralised coordination of a group of autonomous interdependent nodes can emerge with little communication, based on the robust self-organising principles of feedback. Positive feedback is used to reinforce the selection of the new desired global service solution, while negative feedback discourages nodes to act in a greedy fashion as this adversely impacts on the provided service levels at neighbouring nodes. The proposed protocol is general enough to be used in a wide range of scenarios characterised by a high degree of openness and dynamism where coordination tasks need to be time dependent. As the reported results demonstrate, it requires less messages to be exchanged and it is faster to achieve a globally acceptable near-optimal solution than other available approaches.

TDBS: a time division beacon scheduling mechanism for ZigBee cluster-tree wireless sensor networks

Synchronization is a challenging and important issue for time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) since it requires a mutual spatiotemporal coordination between the nodes. In that concern, the IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee protocols embody promising technologies for WSNs, but are still ambiguous on how to efficiently build synchronized multiple-cluster networks, specifically for the case of cluster-tree topologies. In fact, the current IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee specifications restrict the synchronization to beacon-enabled (by the generation of periodic beacon frames) star networks, while they support multi-hop networking in mesh topologies, but with no synchronization. Even though both specifications mention the possible use of cluster-tree topologies, which combine multi-hop and synchronization features, the description on how to effectively construct such a network topology is missing. This paper tackles this issue by unveiling the ambiguities regarding the use of the cluster-tree topology and proposing a synchronization mechanism based on Time Division Beacon Scheduling (TDBS) to build cluster-tree WSNs. In addition, we propose a methodology for efficiently managing duty-cycles in every cluster, ensuring the fairest use of bandwidth resources. The feasibility of the TDBS mechanism is clearly demonstrated through an experimental test-bed based on our open-source implementation of the IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee protocols.

A time division beacon scheduling mechanism for IEEE 802.15.4/Zigbee cluster-tree wireless sensor networks

While the IEEE 802.15.4/Zigbee protocol stack is being considered as a promising technology for low-cost low-power Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), several issues in the standard specifications are still open. One of those ambiguous issues is how to build a synchronized multi-hop cluster-tree network, which is quite suitable for ensuring QoS support in WSNs. In fact, the current IEEE 802.15.4/Zigbee specifications restrict the synchronization in the beacon-enabled mode (by the generation of periodic beacon frames) to star-based networks, while it supports multi-hop networking using the peer-to-peer mesh topology, but with no synchronization. Even though both specifications mention the possible use of cluster-tree topologies, which combine multihop and synchronization features, the description on how to effectively construct such a network topology is missing. This paper tackles this problem, unveils the ambiguities regarding the use of the cluster-tree topology and proposes a synchronization mechanism based on Time Division Beacon Scheduling to construct cluster-tree WSNs. We also propose a methodology for an efficient duty cycle management in each router (cluster-head) of a cluster-tree WSN that ensures the fairest use of bandwidth resources. The feasibility of the proposal is clearly demonstrated through an experimental test bed based on our own implementation of the IEEE 802.15.4/Zigbee protocol.