A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

A Modified Dubins Method for Optimal Path Planning of a Miniature Air Vehicle Converging to a Straight Line Path

This paper presents a Dubins model based strategy to determine the optimal path of a Miniature Air Vehicle (MAV), constrained by a bounded turning rate, that would enable it to fly along a given straight line, starting from an arbitrary initial position and orientation. The method is then extended to meet the same objective in the presence of wind which has a magnitude comparable to the speed of the MAV. We use a modification of the Dubins' path method to obtain the complete optimal solution to this problem in all its generality.

Modified ILMI algorithm for practical PID/PD implementation on a Micro Air Vehicle

This paper extends the iterative linear matrix inequality algorithm (ILMI) for systems having non-ideal PI, PD and PID implementations. The new algorithm uses the practical implementation of the feedback blocksto form the equivalent static output feedback plant. The LMI based synthesis techniques are used in the algorithm to design a multi-loop, multi-objective fixed structure control. The benefits of such a control design technique are brought out by applying it to the lateral stabilizing and tracking feedback control problem of a 30cm wingspan micro air vehicle.

Determination of optimal trajectory under design constraints for a satellite launch vehicle

An optimal pitch steering programme of a solid-fuel satellite launch vehicle to maximize either (1) the injection velocity at a given altitude, or (2) the size of circular orbit, for a given payload is presented. The two-dimensional model includes the rotation of atmosphere with the Earth, the vehicle's lift and drag, variation of thrust with time and altitude, inverse-square gravitational field, and the specified initial vertical take-off. The inequality constraints on the aerodynamic load, control force, and turning rates are also imposed. Using the properties of the central force motion the terminal constraint conditions at coast apogee are transferred to the penultimate stage burnout. Such a transformation converts a time-free problem into a time-fixed one, reduces the number of terminal constraints, improves accuracy, besides demanding less computer memory and time. The adjoint equations are developed in a compact matrix form. The problem is solved on an IBM 360/44 computer using a steepest ascent algorithm. An illustrative analysis of a typical launch vehicle establishes the speed of convergence, and accuracy and applicability of the algorithm.

Delay Optimal Scheduling in a Two-Hop Vehicular Relay Network

We study a scheduling problem in a wireless network where vehicles are used as store-and-forward relays, a situation that might arise, for example, in practical rural communication networks. A fixed source node wants to transfer a file to a fixed destination node, located beyond its communication range. In the absence of any infrastructure connecting the two nodes, we consider the possibility of communication using vehicles passing by. Vehicles arrive at the source node at renewal instants and are known to travel towards the destination node with average speed v sampled from a given probability distribution. Th source node communicates data packets (or fragments) of the file to the destination node using these vehicles as relays. We assume that the vehicles communicate with the source node and the destination node only, and hence, every packet communication involves two hops. In this setup, we study the source node's sequential decision problem of transferring packets of the file to vehicles as they pass by, with the objective of minimizing delay in the network. We study both the finite file size case and the infinite file size case. In the finite file size case, we aim to minimize the expected file transfer delay, i.e. expected value of the maximum of the packet sojourn times. In the infinite file size case, we study the average packet delay minimization problem as well as the optimal tradeoff achievable between the average queueing delay at the source node buffer and the average transit delay in the relay vehicle.

Developing an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) multi-sensor payload carrier for air quality monitoring

Emissions of gases and particles from sea-faring ships have been shown to impact on the atmospheric chemistry and climate. To efficiently monitor and report these emissions found from a ship’s plume, the concept of using a multi-rotor or UAV to hover inside or near the exhaust of the ship to actively record the data in real time is being developed. However, for the required sensors obtain the data; their sensors must face into the airflow of the ships plume. This report presents an approach to have sensors able to read in the chemicals and particles emitted from the ship without affecting the flight dynamics of the multi-rotor UAV by building a sealed chamber in which a pump can take in the surrounding air (outside the downwash effect of the multi-rotor) where the sensors are placed and can analyse the gases safely. Results show that the system is small, lightweight and air-sealed and ready for flight test.

Significance of a short-term test drive for prospective plug-in electric vehicle consumers: An exploratory study

The test drive is a well-known step in car buying. In the emerging plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market, however, the influence of a pre-purchase test drive on a consumer's inclination to purchase is unknown. Policy makers and industry participants both are eager to understand what factors motivate vehicle consumers at the point-of-sale. A number of researchers have used choice models to shed light on consumer perceptions of PEVs, and others have investigated consumer change in disposition toward a PEV over the course of a trial, wherein test driving a PEV may take place over a number of consecutive days, weeks or months. However, there is little written on the impact of a short-term test drive - a typical experience at dealerships or public "ride-and-drive" events. The impact of a typical test drive, often measured in minutes of driving, is not well understood. This paper first presents a synthesis of the literature on the effect of PEV test drives as they relate to consumer disposition toward PEVs. An analysis of data obtained from an Australian case study whereby attitudinal and stated preference data were collected pre- and post- test drive at public "ride-and-drive" event held Brisbane, Queensland in March 2014 using a custom-designed iPad application. Motorists' perceptions and choice preferences around PEVs were captured, revealing the relative importance of their experience behind the wheel. Using the Australian context as a case-study, this paper presents an exploratory study of consumers' stated preferences toward PEVs both before and after a short test drive.

Passengers' intuitive navigation in airports

This thesis examined passengers' intuitive navigation in airports. It aims to ensure that passengers can navigate fast and efficiently through these complex environments. Field research was conducted at two Australian international airports. Participants wore eye-tracking glasses while finding their way through the terminal. Insight was gained into the intuitive use of navigation elements in the airport environment. With a detailed understanding of how passengers' navigate, the findings from this research can be used to improve airport design and planning. This will assist passengers who don't regularly fly as well as those who are frequent flyers.

Understanding urban rail travel for improved patronage forecasting

Improved forecasting of urban rail patronage is essential for effective policy development and efficient planning for new rail infrastructure. Past modelling and forecasting of urban rail patronage has been based on legacy modelling approaches and often conducted at the general level of public transport demand, rather than being specific to urban rail. This project canvassed current Australian practice and international best practice to develop and estimate time series and cross-sectional models of rail patronage for Australian mainland state capital cities. This involved the implementation of a large online survey of rail riders and non-riders for each of the state capital cities, thereby resulting in a comprehensive database of respondent socio-economic profiles, travel experience, attitudes to rail and other modes of travel, together with stated preference responses to a wide range of urban travel scenarios. Estimation of the models provided a demonstration of their ability to provide information on the major influences on the urban rail travel decision. Rail fares, congestion and rail service supply all have a strong influence on rail patronage, while a number of less significant factors such as fuel price and access to a motor vehicle are also influential. Of note, too, is the relative homogeneity of rail user profiles across the state capitals. Rail users tended to have higher incomes and education levels. They are also younger and more likely to be in full-time employment than non-rail users. The project analysis reported here represents only a small proportion of what could be accomplished utilising the survey database. More comprehensive investigation was beyond the scope of the project and has been left for future work.

Role of information and communication in redefining unmanned aerial vehicle autonomous control levels

Autonomous mission control, unlike automatic mission control which is generally pre-programmed to execute an intended mission, is guided by the philosophy of carrying out a complete mission on its own through online sensing, information processing, and control reconfiguration. A crucial cornerstone of this philosophy is the capability of intelligence and of information sharing between unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or with a central controller through secured communication links. Though several mission control algorithms, for single and multiple UAVs, have been discussed in the literature, they lack a clear definition of the various autonomous mission control levels. In the conventional system, the ground pilot issues the flight and mission control command to a UAV through a command data link and the UAV transmits intelligence information, back to the ground pilot through a communication link. Thus, the success of the mission depends entirely on the information flow through a secured communication link between ground pilot and the UAV In the past, mission success depended on the continuous interaction of ground pilot with a single UAV, while present day applications are attempting to define mission success through efficient interaction of ground pilot with multiple UAVs. However, the current trend in UAV applications is expected to lead to a futuristic scenario where mission success would depend only on interaction among UAV groups with no interaction with any ground entity. However, to reach this capability level, it is necessary to first understand the various levels of autonomy and the crucial role that information and communication plays in making these autonomy levels possible. This article presents a detailed framework of UAV autonomous mission control levels in the context of information flow and communication between UAVs and UAV groups for each level of autonomy.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

Optimal Nonlinear Control and Estimation for a Reusable Launch Vehicle During Reentry Phase

In this paper a nonlinear optimal controller has been designed for aerodynamic control during the reentry phase of the Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). The controller has been designed based on a recently developed technique Optimal Dynamic Inversion (ODI). For full state feedback the controller has required full information about the system states. In this work an Extended Kalman filter (EKF) is developed to estimate the states. The vehicle (RLV) has been has been consider as a nonlinear Six-Degree-Of-Freedom (6-DOF) model. The simulation results shows that EKF gives a very good estimation of the states and it is working well with ODI. The resultant trajectories are very similar to those obtained by perfect state feedback using ODI only.

Robust fixed order lateral H-2 controller for micro air vehicle

This paper presents a robust fixed order H-2 controller design using Strengthened discrete optimal projection equations, which approximate the first order necessary optimality condition. The novelty of this work is the application of the robust H-2 controller to a micro aerial vehicle named Sarika2 developed in house. The controller is designed in discrete domain for the lateral dynamics of Sarika2 in the presence of low frequency atmospheric turbulence (gust) and high frequency sensor noise. The design specification includes simultaneous stabilization, disturbance rejection and noise attenuation over the entire flight envelope of the vehicle. The resulting controller performance is comprehensively analyzed by means of simulation.

A hitchhiker's guide to a crowded syconium: how do fig nematodes find the right ride?

P>1Organisms with low mobility, living within ephemeral environments,need to find vehicles that can disperse them reliably to new environments. The requirement for specificity in this passenger-vehicle relationship is enhanced within a tritrophic interaction when the environment of passenger and vehicle is provided by a third organism. Such relationships pose many interesting questions about specificity within a tritrophic framework. 2. Central to understanding how these tritrophic systems have evolved, is knowing how they function now. Determining the proximal cues and sensory modalities used by passengers to find vehicles and to discriminate between reliable and non-reliable vehicles is, therefore, essential to this investigation. 3. The ancient, co-evolved and highly species-specific nursery pollination mutualism between figs and fig wasps is host to species-specific plant-parasitic nematodes which use fig wasps to travel between figs. Since individual globular fig inflorescences, i.e. syconia, serve as incubators for hundreds of developing pollinating and parasitic wasps, a dispersal-stage nematode within such a chemically,complex and physically crowded environment is faced with the dilemma of choosing the right vehicle for dispersal into a new fig. Such a system therefore affords excellent opportunities to investigate mechanisms that contribute to the evolution of specificity between the passenger and the vehicle. 4. In this study of fig-wasp-nematode tritrophic interactions in Ficus racemosa within which seven wasp species can breed, we demonstrate using two-choice as well as cafeteria assays that plant-parasitic nematodes (Schistonchus racemosa) do not hitch rides randomly on available eclosing wasps within the fig syconium, but are specifically attracted, at close range, i.e. 3 mm distance, to only that vehicle which can quickly, within a few hours, reliably transfer it to another fig. This vehicle is the female pollinating wasp. Male wasps and female parasitic wasps are inappropriate vehicles since the former are wingless and die within the fig, while the latter never enter another fig. Nematodes distinguished between female pollinating wasps and other female parasitic wasps using volatiles and cuticular hydrocarbons. Nematodes could not distinguish between cuticular hydrocarbons of male and female pollinators but used other cues, such as volatiles, at close range, to find female pollinating wasps with which they have probably had a long history of chemical adaptation. 5. This study opens up new questions and hypotheses about the evolution and maintenance of specificity in fig-wasp-nematode tritrophic interactions.