Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Attitudes Toward Organizational Change among Public Middle Managers

Positive attitudes toward change (PATC) are an important current issue in public organizations facing profound financial and managerial reforms. This study aims to identify social and organizational antecedents of PATC. The investigated population is composed of middle managers working in Swiss public hospitals (N = 720), which are currently being confronted by major reforms. Partial mediation effects of organizational commitment (OC) in the relationships between independent variables and PATC are also controlled. The findings show that perceived social support (work relationships with colleagues and supervisors) as well as perceived organizational support (employee voice and participation, information and communication, work-life balance) are positively and significantly related to PATC. Stress perception is shown to have a negative impact on PATC. This article provides valuable contributions with respect to antecedents of attitudes toward change in a population of public middle managers.

Teachers' attitudes and beliefs about homosexuality

Schools play a key role in transmitting attitudes towards sexual diversity. Many studies stress the importance of teachers" and other professionals" attitudes towards gay men and/or lesbian women. This study evaluates attitudes and prejudices toward homosexuality in a sample of 254 elementary and high school teachers in Barcelona and its surrounding area. The results obtained using a scale of overt and subtle prejudice and a scale of perceived discrepancy of values indicate that discrepancy between likely behavior and personal values was significantly greater in women, those who hold religious beliefs, churchgoers and people without any gay or lesbian acquaintances. Approximately 88% of the teachers showed no type of prejudiced attitudes towards gay men and lesbian women. The experience of proximity to gay men and/or lesbian women reduces not only the discrepancy between personal values and likely behavior but also the presence of homophobic prejudice. It would be advisable to expand specific teacher training in the subject of sexual diversity in order to reduce prejudicial attitudes, thus fostering non-stereotyped knowledge of homosexuality

Risk Behavior and Reciprocity of Organ Donation Attitudes in Young Men.

BACKGROUND: Lack of donor organs remains a major obstacle in organ transplantation. Our aim was to evaluate (1) the association between engaging in high-risk recreational activities and attitudes toward organ donation and (2) the degree of reciprocity between organ acceptance and donation willingness in young men. METHODS: A 17-item, close-ended survey was offered to male conscripts ages 18 to 26 years in all Swiss military conscription centers. Predictors of organ donation attitudes were assessed in bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regression. Reciprocity of the intentions to accept and to donate organs was assessed by means of donor card status. RESULTS: In 1559 responses analyzed, neither motorcycling nor practicing extreme sports reached significant association with donor card holder status. Family communication about organ donation, student, or academic profession and living in a Latin linguistic region were predictors of positive organ donation attitudes, whereas residence in a German-speaking region and practicing any religion predicted reluctance. Significantly more respondents were willing to accept than to donate organs, especially among those without family communication concerning organ donation. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, it was shown that high-risk recreational activities do not influence organ donation attitudes. Second, a considerable discrepancy in organ donation reciprocity was identified. We propose that increasing this reciprocity could eventually increase organ donation rates.

The impact of inbound demand on price levels in tourism municipalities : Empirical evidence from Catalonia

It is usually argued that tourism exerts negative economic impacts in host jurisdictions through the increase in prices linked to increasing demand for basic services and goods from tourists. This paper surveys 149 products in 45 tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions in Catalonia (which represent a total of 18,500 prices) in order to test empirically several hypotheses related to differences in price levels in tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions. The main results show that prices in tourism jurisdictions are not significantly higher than those in non-tourism ones. The analysis suggests that tourists are likely to pay higher prices than natives for some products

Swiss family physicians' perceptions and attitudes towards knowledge translation practices.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have been performed to understand the way family physicians apply knowledge from medical research in practice. However, very little is known concerning family physicians in Switzerland. In an environment in which information constantly accumulates, it is crucial to identify the major sources of scientific information that are used by family physicians to keep their medical knowledge up to date and barriers to use these sources. Our main objective was to examine medical knowledge translation (KT) practices of Swiss family physicians. METHODS: The population consisted of French- and German-speaking private practice physicians specialised in family medicine. We conducted four interviews and three focus groups (n = 25). The interview guides of the semi-structured interviews and focus groups focused on (a) ways and means used by physicians to keep updated with information relevant to clinical practice; (b) how they consider their role in translating knowledge into practice; (c) potential barriers to KT; (d) solutions proposed by physicians for effective KT. RESULTS: Family physicians find themselves rather ambivalent about the translation of knowledge based on scientific literature, but generally express much interest in KT. They often feel overwhelmed by "information floods" and perceive clinical practice guidelines and other supports to be of limited usefulness for their practice. They often combine various formal and informal information sources to keep their knowledge up to date. Swiss family physicians report considering themselves as artisans, caring for patients with complex needs. CONCLUSION: Improved performance of KT initiatives in family medicine should be tailored to actual needs and based on high quality evidence-based sources.

How Important to a City Are Tourists and Daytrippers? The Economic Impact of Tourism on The City of Barcelona

In this paper, we devise a methodology that is able to objectively quantify the impact of tourism on the urban economy. This methodology takes various dimensions into account. First, to analyse the impact at sectoral level, it should bear in mind that tourism is a cross-sectional activity which affects many sectors, both directly and indirectly. Therefore, it is important to consider the impact of urban tourism on sectors traditionally defined as tourism-related, -that is, hotels, restaurants, shops, etc.- but also its impact on other sectors -for instance, textiles, food, construction, to name only a few- due to the intersectoral relationships that emerge. Second, we need to calculate the percentage of the turnover of each sector that is due to the tourism industry. Third, it is important to establish the geographic distribution of this impact: how is the effect shared between the city and its neighbouring areas QUESTION Finally, the effect of urban tourism should be quantified not only in terms of turnover, but also in terms of its contribution to GDP and employment.

Attitudes Regarding Palliative Sedation and Death Hastening Among Swiss Physicians: A Contextually Sensitive Approach.

In Switzerland, where assisted suicide but not euthanasia is permitted, the authors sought to understand how physicians integrate palliative sedation in their practice and how they reflect on existential suffering and death hastening. They interviewed 31 physicians from different care settings. Five major attitudes emerged. Among specialized palliative care physicians, convinced, cautious and doubtful attitudes were evident. Within unspecialized settings, palliative sedation was more likely to be considered as death hastening: clinicians either avoid it with an inexperienced attitude or practice it with an ambiguous attitude, raising the issue of unskilled and abusive uses of sedatives at the end of life.

Attitudes and burden in relatives of patients with schizophrenia in a middle income country

BACKGROUND: Most studies of family attitudes and burden have been conducted in developed countries. Thus it is important to test the generalizability of this research in other contexts where social conditions and extended family involvement may be different. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the attitudes of caregivers and the burden they experience in such a context, namely Arica, a town located in the northernmost region of Chile, close to the border with Peru and Bolivia. METHODS: We assessed attitudes towards schizophrenia (including affective, cognitive and behavioural components) and burden (including subjective distress, rejection and competence) in 41 main caregivers of patients with schizophrenia, all of whom were users of Public Mental Health Services in Arica. RESULTS: Attitude measures differed significantly according to socio-demographic variables, with parents (mainly mothers) exhibiting a more negative attitude towards the environment than the rest of the family (t = 4.04; p = 0.000).This was also the case for caregivers with a low educational level (t = 3.27; p < 0.003), for the oldest caregivers (r = 0.546; p = 0.000) and for those who had spent more time with the patient (r = 0.377; p = 0.015). Although attitudes had significant association with burden, their explanatory power was modest (R2 = .104, F = 4,55; p = .039). CONCLUSIONS: Similar to finding developed countries, the current study revealed a positive and significant relationship between the attitudes of caregivers and their burden. These findings emphasize the need to support the families of patients with schizophrenia in this social context.

English as a medium of instruction in teaching other languages: attitudes and practices

Internationalisation of HE and emergence of English as a global academic lingua franca used by people who share neither a common native tongue nor cultural and educational background have not only offered more opportunities but also raised challenges. According to recent European surveys, the percentage of pupils attaining the level of independent user in English varies from 14% to 82%, which evidences the potential and the complexity for English as a medium of instruction at tertiary level. This study aims to present the model of foreign language instruction at Vytautas Magnus University where one third of 30 languages are taught through English. It investigates the attitudes and practices of teachers in delivering their English-medium language courses by discussing the questions whether teaching other languages through English is psychologically, culturally and educationally preferable for teachers and students, whether it can limit the content taught and require a special methodology, how the teaching process changes with multiple languages used in the classroom and what level of English is necessary for teachers and students to ensure high quality of English-medium language teaching. The study is based on qualitative methodology with 12 language teachers participating as respondents. The results reveal areas in need of improvement.