Measuring time series predictability using support vector regression

Most studies involving statistical time series analysis rely on assumptions of linearity, which by its simplicity facilitates parameter interpretation and estimation. However, the linearity assumption may be too restrictive for many practical applications. The implementation of nonlinear models in time series analysis involves the estimation of a large set of parameters, frequently leading to overfitting problems. In this article, a predictability coefficient is estimated using a combination of nonlinear autoregressive models and the use of support vector regression in this model is explored. We illustrate the usefulness and interpretability of results by using electroencephalographic records of an epileptic patient.

Automatic spiral analysis for objective assessment of motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To develop a method for objective quantification of PD motor symptoms related to Off episodes and peak dose dyskinesias, using spiral data gathered by using a touch screen telemetry device. The aim was to objectively characterize predominant motor phenotypes (bradykinesia and dyskinesia), to help in automating the process of visual interpretation of movement anomalies in spirals as rated by movement disorder specialists. Background: A retrospective analysis was conducted on recordings from 65 patients with advanced idiopathic PD from nine different clinics in Sweden, recruited from January 2006 until August 2010. In addition to the patient group, 10 healthy elderly subjects were recruited. Upper limb movement data were collected using a touch screen telemetry device from home environments of the subjects. Measurements with the device were performed four times per day during week-long test periods. On each test occasion, the subjects were asked to trace pre-drawn Archimedean spirals, using the dominant hand. The pre-drawn spiral was shown on the screen of the device. The spiral test was repeated three times per test occasion and they were instructed to complete it within 10 seconds. The device had a sampling rate of 10Hz and measured both position and time-stamps (in milliseconds) of the pen tip. Methods: Four independent raters (FB, DH, AJ and DN) used a web interface that animated the spiral drawings and allowed them to observe different kinematic features during the drawing process and to rate task performance. Initially, a number of kinematic features were assessed including ‘impairment’, ‘speed’, ‘irregularity’ and ‘hesitation’ followed by marking the predominant motor phenotype on a 3-category scale: tremor, bradykinesia and/or choreatic dyskinesia. There were only 2 test occasions for which all the four raters either classified them as tremor or could not identify the motor phenotype. Therefore, the two main motor phenotype categories were bradykinesia and dyskinesia. ‘Impairment’ was rated on a scale from 0 (no impairment) to 10 (extremely severe) whereas ‘speed’, ‘irregularity’ and ‘hesitation’ were rated on a scale from 0 (normal) to 4 (extremely severe). The proposed data-driven method consisted of the following steps. Initially, 28 spatiotemporal features were extracted from the time series signals before being presented to a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) classifier. The features were based on different kinematic quantities of spirals including radius, angle, speed and velocity with the aim of measuring the severity of involuntary symptoms and discriminate between PD-specific (bradykinesia) and/or treatment-induced symptoms (dyskinesia). A Principal Component Analysis was applied on the features to reduce their dimensions where 4 relevant principal components (PCs) were retained and used as inputs to the MLP classifier. Finally, the MLP classifier mapped these components to the corresponding visually assessed motor phenotype scores for automating the process of scoring the bradykinesia and dyskinesia in PD patients whilst they draw spirals using the touch screen device. For motor phenotype (bradykinesia vs. dyskinesia) classification, the stratified 10-fold cross validation technique was employed. Results: There were good agreements between the four raters when rating the individual kinematic features with intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.88 for ‘impairment’, 0.74 for ‘speed’, 0.70 for ‘irregularity’, and moderate agreements when rating ‘hesitation’ with an ICC of 0.49. When assessing the two main motor phenotype categories (bradykinesia or dyskinesia) in animated spirals the agreements between the four raters ranged from fair to moderate. There were good correlations between mean ratings of the four raters on individual kinematic features and computed scores. The MLP classifier classified the motor phenotype that is bradykinesia or dyskinesia with an accuracy of 85% in relation to visual classifications of the four movement disorder specialists. The test-retest reliability of the four PCs across the three spiral test trials was good with Cronbach’s Alpha coefficients of 0.80, 0.82, 0.54 and 0.49, respectively. These results indicate that the computed scores are stable and consistent over time. Significant differences were found between the two groups (patients and healthy elderly subjects) in all the PCs, except for the PC3. Conclusions: The proposed method automatically assessed the severity of unwanted symptoms and could reasonably well discriminate between PD-specific and/or treatment-induced motor symptoms, in relation to visual assessments of movement disorder specialists. The objective assessments could provide a time-effect summary score that could be useful for improving decision-making during symptom evaluation of individualized treatment when the goal is to maximize functional On time for patients while minimizing their Off episodes and troublesome dyskinesias.

Arbetslöshet som en icke önskvärd konsekvens av socialbidrag : Resultat från en tidsserieanalys på befolkningsnivå i Sverige 1946–1990

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.

Automatic spiral analysis for objective assessment of motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease

A challenge for the clinical management of advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients is the emergence of fluctuations in motor performance, which represents a significant source of disability during activities of daily living of the patients. There is a lack of objective measurement of treatment effects for in-clinic and at-home use that can provide an overview of the treatment response. The objective of this paper was to develop a method for objective quantification of advanced PD motor symptoms related to off episodes and peak dose dyskinesia, using spiral data gathered by a touch screen telemetry device. More specifically, the aim was to objectively characterize motor symptoms (bradykinesia and dyskinesia), to help in automating the process of visual interpretation of movement anomalies in spirals as rated by movement disorder specialists. Digitized upper limb movement data of 65 advanced PD patients and 10 healthy (HE) subjects were recorded as they performed spiral drawing tasks on a touch screen device in their home environment settings. Several spatiotemporal features were extracted from the time series and used as inputs to machine learning methods. The methods were validated against ratings on animated spirals scored by four movement disorder specialists who visually assessed a set of kinematic features and the motor symptom. The ability of the method to discriminate between PD patients and HE subjects and the test-retest reliability of the computed scores were also evaluated. Computed scores correlated well with mean visual ratings of individual kinematic features. The best performing classifier (Multilayer Perceptron) classified the motor symptom (bradykinesia or dyskinesia) with an accuracy of 84% and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.86 in relation to visual classifications of the raters. In addition, the method provided high discriminating power when distinguishing between PD patients and HE subjects as well as had good test-retest reliability. This study demonstrated the potential of using digital spiral analysis for objective quantification of PD-specific and/or treatment-induced motor symptoms.

Controle da neoplasia maligna do colo de útero: a resolutividade na atenção básica

A quantitative, descriptive, cross-sectional and retrospective study, using technical procedures of document consultation from secondary sources and health household survey with application form for face to face inter views, with the assent nº.039/2011 from the Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. The aim of this study was to analyze the cervix cancer control in the area47 of the Health Family Centre Nova Natal II. The cancer cervix is the second most common cancer among women worldwide. In Brazil screening for early detection and treatment of disease has been poorly done and follow-up to reduce mortality has not been executed. From a total of1170women belonging to area 47, who under went screening by the Pap test in the period from 2005 to 2010,was elected a sample of 38 women with positive cervical changes, over 18 years old. The calculation of frequency analysis of socio demographic and clinical and epidemiological selected variables with the results of cervical changes, using the X2 test and taking as significance level of p<0.05 was not statistically significant. The predominant age range was 25 to 64 years (68.9%), most no white women (60.5%), predominantly with primary education (57.9%), most married (68.4%) and housewives (68.4%) with early age of sexual activity (86.8%), the minority smokers (13.2%), with a sexual partner (36.8%). At the time of interview, 42.1% of the women voiced complaint of discharge, while only 2.6% reported bleeding. In relation to the occurrence of STDs (including HPV), 10.5% of women reported being a carrier. The use of oral contraceptives was 32.3% of women, from 2 to 4 years (44.4%). The result of the last screening test performed, showed prevalence of immature squamous metaplasia (55.3%), followed by intraepithelial low- grade lesion (including the cytopathologic HPV effect and cervical intra epithelial neoplasia grade I) (31.6%); intraepithelial high-grade lesion (including cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II and III) (7.9%), atypical squamous non neoplastic cells (5.3%). There was no squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma. Most women received information about the action that should be done after the last screening test result (55.3%), but how to perform follow, most women did not report having done so (55.3%). The follow-up group of women studied, with varying degrees of cervical abnormalities, should only be completed with the discharge by cure, established inconsecutive negative cytology, a goal that is not being achieved in the area 47 of the Health Family Centre of Nova Natal II

Analysis of gene expression profiles under water stress in tolerant and sensitive sugarcane plants

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Um estudo de estruturas com PBG e fotônica

One of the objectives of this work is the ana1ysis of planar structures using the PBG (photonic Bandgap), a new method of controlling propagation of electromagnetic waves in devices with dielectrics. Here the basic theory of these structures will be presented, as well as applications and determination of certain parameters. In this work the analysis will be performed concerning PBG structures, including the basic theory and applications in planar structures. Considerations are made related to the implementation of devices. Here the TTL (Transverse Transmission Line) method is employed, characterized by the simplicity in the treatment of the equations that govern the propagation of electromagnetic waves in the structure. In this method, the fields in x and z are expressed in function of the fields in the traverse direction y in FTD (Fourier Transform Domain). This method is useful in the determination of the complex propagation constant with application in high frequency and photonics. In this work structures will be approached in micrometric scale operating in frequencies in the range of T erahertz, a first step for operation in the visible spectra. The mathematical basis are approached for the determination of the electromagnetic fields in the structure, based on the method L TT taking into account the dimensions approached in this work. Calculations for the determination of the constant of complex propagation are also carried out. The computational implementation is presented for high frequencies. at the first time the analysis is done with base in open microstrip lines with semiconductor substrate. Finally, considerations are made regarding applications ofthese devices in the area of telecommunications, and suggestions for future

Análise da precipitação no semi-árido potiguar

The semiarid rainfall regime is northeastern Brazil is highly variable. Climate processes associated with rainfall are complex and their effects may represent extreme situations of drought or floods, which can have adverse effects on society and the environment. The regional economy has a significant agricultural component, which is strongly influenced by weather conditions. Maximum precipitation analysis is traditionally performed using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) probabilistic approach. Results from such analysis are typically used in engineering projects involving hydraulic structures such as drainage network systems and road structures. On the other hand, precipitation data analysis may require the adoption of some kind of event identification criteria. The minimum inter-event duration (IMEE) is one of the most used criteria. This study aims to analyze the effect of the IMEE on the obtained rain event properties. For this purpose, a nine-year precipitation time series (2002- 2011) was used. This data was obtained from an automatic raingauge station, installed in an environmentally protected area, Ecological Seridó Station. The results showed that adopted IMEE values has an important effect on the number of events, duration, event height, mean rainfall rate and mean inter-event duration. Furthermore, a higher occurrence of extreme events was observed for small IMEE values. Most events showed average rainfall intensity higher than 2 mm.h-1 regardless of IMEE. The storm coefficient of advance was, in most cases, within the first quartile of the event, regardless of the IMEE value. Time series analysis using partial time series made it possible to adjust the IDF equations to local characteristics

Análise sísmica usando transformada de Curvelet

Oil prospecting is one of most complex and important features of oil industry Direct prospecting methods like drilling well logs are very expensive, in consequence indirect methods are preferred. Among the indirect prospecting techniques the seismic imaging is a relevant method. Seismic method is based on artificial seismic waves that are generated, go through the geologic medium suffering diffraction and reflexion and return to the surface where they are recorded and analyzed to construct seismograms. However, the seismogram contains not only actual geologic information, but also noise, and one of the main components of the noise is the ground roll. Noise attenuation is essential for a good geologic interpretation of the seismogram. It is common to study seismograms by using time-frequency transformations that map the seismic signal into a frequency space where it is easier to remove or attenuate noise. After that, data is reconstructed in the original space in such a way that geologic structures are shown in more detail. In addition, the curvelet transform is a new and effective spectral transformation that have been used in the analysis of complex data. In this work, we employ the curvelet transform to represent geologic data using basis functions that are directional in space. This particular basis can represent more effectively two dimensional objects with contours and lines. The curvelet analysis maps real space into frequencies scales and angular sectors in such way that we can distinguish in detail the sub-spaces where is the noise and remove the coefficients corresponding to the undesired data. In this work we develop and apply the denoising analysis to remove the ground roll of seismograms. We apply this technique to a artificial seismogram and to a real one. In both cases we obtain a good noise attenuation

Cromatografia gasosa ultrarrápida: uma visão geral sobre parâmetros, instrumentação e aplicações

Since the introduction of GC there has been an ongoing interest in reducing time of analysis resulting in new terms and definitions such as ultra fast gas chromatography (UF-GC). One of the most used definitions describes UF-GC as a technique that combines the employment of short narrow bore column with very fast temperature programming rates producing chromatographic peaks in the range of 50 ms and allowing separations times in 1-2 min or less. This paper summarizes the analytical approaches, the main parameters involved and the instrumentation towards UF-GC.

Modal representation of three-phase lines applying two transformation matrices: Evaluation of its eigenvectors

The objective of this paper is to show an alternative representation in time domain of a non-transposed three-phase transmission line decomposed in its exact modes by using two transformation matrices. The first matrix is Clarke's matrix that is real, frequency independent, easily represented in computational transient programs (EMTP) and separates the line into Quasi-modes alpha, beta and zero. After that, Quasi-modes a and zero are decomposed into their exact modes by using a modal transformation matrix whose elements can be synthesized in time domain through standard curve-fitting techniques. The main advantage of this alternative representation is to reduce the processing time because a frequency dependent modal transformation matrix of a three-phase line has nine elements to be represented in time domain while a modal transformation matrix of a two-phase line has only four elements. This paper shows modal decomposition process and eigenvectors of a nontransposed three-phase line with a vertical symmetry plane whose nominal voltage is 440 kV and line length is 500 km.

Early loading of single crowns supported by 6-mm-long implants with a moderately rough surface: a prospective 2-year follow-up cohort study

AimTo evaluate prospectively the clinical and radiographic outcomes after 2 years of loading of 6 mm long moderately rough implants supporting single crowns in the posterior regions.Material and methodsForty SLActive Straumann (R) short (6 mm) implants were placed in 35 consecutively treated patients. Nineteen implants, 4.1 mm in diameter, and 21 implants, 4.8 mm in diameter, were installed. Implants were loaded after 6 weeks of healing. Implant survival rate, marginal bone loss and resonance frequency analysis (RFA) were evaluated at different intervals. The clinical crown/implant ratio was also calculated.ResultsTwo out of 40 implants were lost before loading. Hence, the survival rate before loading was 95%. No further technical or biological complications were encountered during the 2-year follow-up. The mean marginal bone loss before loading was 0.34 +/- 0.38 mm. After loading, the mean marginal bone loss was 0.23 +/- 0.33 and 0.21 +/- 0.39 mm at the 1- and 2-year follow-ups. The RFA values increased between insertion (70.2 +/- 9) and the 6-week evaluation (74.8 +/- 6.1). The clinical crown/implant ratio increased with time from 1.5 at the delivery of the prosthesis to 1.8 after 2 years of loading.ConclusionShort implants (6 mm) with a moderately rough surface loaded early (after 6 weeks) during healing yielded high implant survival rates and moderate loss of bone after 2 years of loading. Longer observation periods are needed to draw more definite conclusions on the reliability of short implants supporting single crowns.To cite this article:Rossi F, Ricci E, Marchetti C, Lang NP, Botticelli D. Early loading of single crowns supported by 6-mm-long implants with a moderately rough surface: a prospective 2-year follow-up cohort study.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 21, 2010; 937-943.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2010.01942.x.

Electrogravimetric Real-Time and in Situ Michaelis-Menten Enzimatic Kinetics: Progress Curve of Acetylcholinesterase Hydrolysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Harmonics filtering and detection of disturbances using wavelets

Traditional mathematical tools, like Fourier Analysis, have proven to be efficient when analyzing steady-state distortions; however, the growing utilization of electronically controlled loads and the generation of a new dynamics in industrial environments signals have suggested the need of a powerful tool to perform the analysis of non-stationary distortions, overcoming limitations of frequency techniques. Wavelet Theory provides a new approach to harmonic analysis, focusing the decomposition of a signal into non-sinusoidal components, which are translated and scaled in time, generating a time-frequency basis. The correct choice of the waveshape to be used in decomposition is very important and discussed in this work. A brief theoretical introduction on Wavelet Transform is presented and some cases (practical and simulated) are discussed. Distortions commonly found in industrial environments, such as the current waveform of a Switched-Mode Power Supply and the input phase voltage waveform of motor fed by inverter are analyzed using Wavelet Theory. Applications such as extracting the fundamental frequency of a non-sinusoidal current signal, or using the ability of compact representation to detect non-repetitive disturbances are presented.

Energy method to calculate the density of liquids using ultrasonic reflection techniques

In this work it is introduced a new approach to calculate the density of liquids in terms of the energies of the acoustic signals. This method is compared to other methods in the time domain (peak-to-peak amplitudes) and frequency domain magnitudes at a single frequency. It is used a measurement cell based on a multiple reflection technique, and it is developed an acoustic model for the cell. Simulations and experiments using several liquids are presented, showing that the energy method a less sensitive to noise than the other techniques. The relative errors in the density are smaller than 0.2% when compared to the values measured with a pycnometer.