Partitioning of reproduction in mother-daughter versus sibling associations : a test of optimal skew theory

A critical feature of cooperative animal societies is the reproductive skew, a shorthand term for the degree to which a dominant individual monopolizes overall reproduction in the group. Our theoretical analysis of the evolutionarily stable skew in matrifilial (i.e., mother-daughter) societies, in which relatednesses to offspring are asymmetrical, predicts that reproductive skews in such societies should tend to be greater than those of semisocial societies (i.e., societies composed of individuals of the same generation, such as siblings), in which relatednesses to offspring are symmetrical. Quantitative data on reproductive skews in semisocial and matrifilial associations within the same species for 17 eusocial Hymenoptera support this prediction. Likewise, a survey of reproductive partitioning within 20 vertebrate societies demonstrates that complete reproductive monopoly is more likely to occur in matrifilial than in semisocial societies, also as predicted by the optimal skew model.

Examining the Agreement of Structural Loss Measured With Heidelberg Retinal Tomograhy and Functional Loss With Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP; Octopus), Pulsar Perimetry (PP), and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) Perimetry

Purpose: To examine the relationship of functional measurements with structural measures. Methods: 146 eyes of 83 test subjects underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII) (disc area<2.43, mphsd<40), and perimetry testing with Octopus (SAP; Dynamic), Pulsar (PP; TOP) and Moorfields MDT (ESTA). Glaucoma was defined as progressive structural or functional loss (20 eyes). Perimetry test points were grouped into 6 sectors based on the estimated optic nerve head angle into which the associated nerve fiber bundle enters (Garway-Heath map). Perimetry summary measures (PSM) (MD SAP/ MD PP/ PTD MDT) were calculated from the average total deviation of each measured threshold from the normal for each sector. We calculated the 95% significance level of the sectorial PSM from the respective normative data. We calculated the percentage agreement with group1 (G1), healthy on HRT and within normal perimetric limits, and group 2 (G2), abnormal on HRT and outside normal perimetric limits. We also examined the relationship of PSM and rim area (RA) in those sectors classified as abnormal by MRA (Moorfields Regression Analysis) of HRT. Results: The mean age was 65 (range= [37, 89]). The global sensitivity versus specificity of each instrument in detecting glaucomatous eyes was: MDT 80% vs. 88%, SAP 80% vs. 80%, PP 70% vs. 89% and HRT 80% vs. 79%. Highest percentage agreement of HRT (respectively G1, G2, sector) with PSM were MDT (89%, 57%, nasal superior), SAP (83%, 74%, temporal superior), PP (74%, 63%, nasal superior). Globally percentage agreement (respectively G1, G2) was MDT (92%, 28%), SAP (87%, 40%) and PP (77%, 49%). Linear regression showed there was no significant trend globally associating RA and PSM. However, sectorally the supero-nasal sector had a statistically significant (p<0.001) trend with each instrument, the associated r2 coefficients are (MDT 0.38 SAP 0.56 and PP 0.39). Conclusions: There were no significant differences in global sensitivity or specificity between instruments. Structure-function relationships varied significantly between instruments and were consistently strongest supero-nasally. Further studies are required to investigate these relationships in detail.

Clients of sex workers in Switzerland: it makes sense to counsel and propose rapid test for HIV on the street, a preliminary report.

BACKGROUND: Clients of street sex workers may be at higher risk for HIV infection than the general population. Furthermore, there is a lack of knowledge regarding HIV testing of clients of sex workers in developed countries. METHOD: This pilot study assessed the feasibility and acceptance of rapid HIV testing by the clients of street-based sex workers in Lausanne, Switzerland. For 5 evenings, clients in cars were stopped by trained field staff for face-to-face interviews focusing on sex-related HIV risk behaviors and HIV testing history. The clients were then offered a free anonymous rapid HIV test in a bus parked nearby. Rapid HIV testing and counselling were performed by experienced nurse practitioners. Clients with reactive tests were offered confirmatory testing, medical evaluation, and care in our HIV clinic. RESULT: We intercepted 144 men, 112 (77.8%) agreed to be interviewed. Among them, 50 (46.6%) had never been tested for HIV. A total of 31 (27.7%) rapid HIV tests were performed, 16 (51.6%) in clients who had not previously been tested. None were reactive. Initially, 19 (16.9%) additional clients agreed to HIV testing but later declined due to the 40-minute queue for testing. CONCLUSION: This pilot study showed that rapid HIV testing in the red light district of Lausanne was feasible, and that the clients of sex workers accepted testing at an unexpectedly high rate. This setting seems particularly appropriate for targeted HIV screening, since more than 40% of the clients had not previously been tested for HIV even though they engaged in sex-related HIV risk behaviour.

Fusion of data sets in multivariate linear regression with errors-in-variables

We consider the application of normal theory methods to the estimation and testing of a general type of multivariate regressionmodels with errors--in--variables, in the case where various data setsare merged into a single analysis and the observable variables deviatepossibly from normality. The various samples to be merged can differ on the set of observable variables available. We show that there is a convenient way to parameterize the model so that, despite the possiblenon--normality of the data, normal--theory methods yield correct inferencesfor the parameters of interest and for the goodness--of--fit test. Thetheory described encompasses both the functional and structural modelcases, and can be implemented using standard software for structuralequations models, such as LISREL, EQS, LISCOMP, among others. An illustration with Monte Carlo data is presented.

A simple permutation test for clusteredness

Hierarchical clustering is a popular method for finding structure in multivariate data,resulting in a binary tree constructed on the particular objects of the study, usually samplingunits. The user faces the decision where to cut the binary tree in order to determine the numberof clusters to interpret and there are various ad hoc rules for arriving at a decision. A simplepermutation test is presented that diagnoses whether non-random levels of clustering are presentin the set of objects and, if so, indicates the specific level at which the tree can be cut. The test isvalidated against random matrices to verify the type I error probability and a power study isperformed on data sets with known clusteredness to study the type II error.

Motivation, test scores and economic success

This paper argues that low-stakes test scores, available in surveys, may be partially determinedby test-taking motivation, which is associated with personality traits but not with cognitiveability. Therefore, such test score distributions may not be informative regarding cognitiveability distributions. Moreover, correlations, found in survey data, between high test scoresand economic success may be partially caused by favorable personality traits. To demonstratethese points, I use the coding speed test that was administered without incentives to NationalLongitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY) participants. I suggest that due to its simplicityits scores may especially depend on individuals' test-taking motivation. I show that controllingfor conventional measures of cognitive skills, the coding speed scores are correlated with futureearnings of male NLSY participants. Moreover, the coding speed scores of highly motivated,though less educated, population (potential enlists to the armed forces) are higher than NLSYparticipants' scores. I then use controlled experiments to show that when no performance-basedincentives are provided, participants' characteristics, but not their cognitive skills, affect effortinvested in the coding speed test. Thus, participants with the same ability (measured by theirscores on an incentivized test) have significantly different scores on tests without performance-based incentives.

Measuring ecological niche overlap from occurrence and spatial environmental data

1. Aim - Concerns over how global change will influence species distributions, in conjunction with increased emphasis on understanding niche dynamics in evolutionary and community contexts, highlight the growing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences between or within taxa. We propose a statistical framework to describe and compare environmental niches from occurrence and spatial environmental data.¦2. Location - Europe, North America, South America¦3. Methods - The framework applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in gridded environmental space to calculate metrics of niche overlap and test hypotheses regarding niche conservatism. We use this framework and simulated species with predefined distributions and amounts of niche overlap to evaluate several ordination and species distribution modeling techniques for quantifying niche overlap. We illustrate the approach with data on two well-studied invasive species.¦4. Results - We show that niche overlap can be accurately detected with the framework when variables driving the distributions are known. The method is robust to known and previously undocumented biases related to the dependence of species occurrences on the frequency of environmental conditions that occur across geographic space. The use of a kernel smoother makes the process of moving from geographical space to multivariate environmental space independent of both sampling effort and arbitrary choice of resolution in environmental space. However, the use of ordination and species distribution model techniques for selecting, combining and weighting variables on which niche overlap is calculated provide contrasting results.¦5. Main conclusions - The framework meets the increasing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences. It is appropriate to study niche differences between species, subspecies or intraspecific lineages that differ in their geographical distributions. Alternatively, it can be used to measure the degree to which the environmental niche of a species or intraspecific lineage has changed over time.

A scaled difference chi-square test statistic for moment structure analysis

A family of scaling corrections aimed to improve the chi-square approximation of goodness-of-fit test statistics in small samples, large models, and nonnormal data was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (1994). For structural equations models, Satorra-Bentler's (SB) scaling corrections are available in standard computer software. Often, however, the interest is not on the overall fit of a model, but on a test of the restrictions that a null model say ${\cal M}_0$ implies on a less restricted one ${\cal M}_1$. If $T_0$ and $T_1$ denote the goodness-of-fit test statistics associated to ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$, respectively, then typically the difference $T_d = T_0 - T_1$ is used as a chi-square test statistic with degrees of freedom equal to the difference on the number of independent parameters estimated under the models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. As in the case of the goodness-of-fit test, it is of interest to scale the statistic $T_d$ in order to improve its chi-square approximation in realistic, i.e., nonasymptotic and nonnormal, applications. In a recent paper, Satorra (1999) shows that the difference between two Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistics for overall model fit does not yield the correct SB scaled difference test statistic. Satorra developed an expression that permits scaling the difference test statistic, but his formula has some practical limitations, since it requires heavy computations that are notavailable in standard computer software. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an easy way to compute the scaled difference chi-square statistic from the scaled goodness-of-fit test statistics of models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. A Monte Carlo study is provided to illustrate the performance of the competing statistics.

Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

On the accuracy of Latin American trade statistics: A nonparametric test for 1925

This paper proposes a nonparametric test in order to establish the level of accuracy of theforeign trade statistics of 17 Latin American countries when contrasted with the trade statistics of the main partners in 1925. The Wilcoxon Matched-Pairs Ranks test is used to determine whether the differences between the data registered by exporters and importers are meaningful, and if so, whether the differences are systematic in any direction. The paper tests for the reliability of the data registered for two homogeneous products, petroleum and coal, both in volume and value. The conclusion of the several exercises performed is that we cannot accept the existence of statistically significant differences between the data provided by the exporters and the registered by the importing countries in most cases. The qualitative historiography of Latin American describes its foreign trade statistics as mostly unusable. Our quantitative results contest this view.

Country effects in ISSP-1993 environmental data: Comparison of SEM approaches

Structural equation models (SEM) are commonly used to analyze the relationship between variables some of which may be latent, such as individual ``attitude'' to and ``behavior'' concerning specific issues. A number of difficulties arise when we want to compare a large number of groups, each with large sample size, and the manifest variables are distinctly non-normally distributed. Using an specific data set, we evaluate the appropriateness of the following alternative SEM approaches: multiple group versus MIMIC models, continuous versus ordinal variables estimation methods, and normal theory versus non-normal estimation methods. The approaches are applied to the ISSP-1993 Environmental data set, with the purpose of exploring variation in the mean level of variables of ``attitude'' to and ``behavior''concerning environmental issues and their mutual relationship across countries. Issues of both theoretical and practical relevance arise in the course of this application.

Méthodologie intégrée de microgravimétrie en milieu urbain : test d'application au génie civil sur le métro M2 de Lausanne

RESUME Dès le printemps 2004, la construction d'une 2ème ligne de métro est entreprise dans la ville de Lausanne en Suisse. En reliant Ouchy, au bord du lac Léman (alt. 373 m) à Epalinges (alt. 711 m), le nouveau métro "M2" traversera dès 2008 l'agglomération lausannoise du Sud au Nord sur une distance de 6 km. Depuis l'avant-projet, en 1999, une grande quantité de données géologiques a été récolté et de nombreux forages exécutés sur le site. Ceci nous a donné une occasion unique d'entreprendre une étude de microgravimétrique urbaine de détail. Le mode de creusement du tunnel dépend fortement des matériaux à excaver et il est classiquement du domaine du géologue, avec ses connaissances de la géologie régionale et de la stratigraphie des forages, de fournir à l'ingénieur un modèle géologique. Ce modèle indiquera dans ce cas l'épaisseur des terrains meubles qui recouvrent le soubassement rocheux. La représentativité spatiale d'une information très localisée, comme celle d'un forage, est d'autant plus compliquée que le détail recherché est petit. C'est à ce moment là que la prospection géophysique, plus spécialement gravimétrique, peut apporter des informations complémentaires déterminantes pour régionaliser les données ponctuelles des forages. La microgravimétrie en milieu urbain implique de corriger avec soin les perturbations gravifiques sur la mesure de la pesanteur dues aux effets de la topographie, des bâtiments et des caves afin d'isoler l'effet gravifique dû exclusivement à l'épaisseur du remplissage des terrains meubles. Tenant compte de l'intensité des corrections topographiques en milieu urbain, nous avons donné une grande importance aux sous-sols, leurs effets gravifiques pouvant atteindre l'ordre du dixième de mGal. Nous avons donc intégré ces corrections celle de topographie et traité les effets des bâtiments de manière indépendante. Nous avons inclus dans le modèle numérique de terrain (MNT) la chaussée et les sous-sols afin de construire un modèle numérique de terrain urbain. Nous utiliserons un nouvel acronyme « MNTU »pour décrire ce modèle. Nous proposons d'établir des cartes de corrections topographiques préalables, basées sur les données à disposition fournies par le cadastre en faisant des hypothèses sur la profondeur des sous-sols et la hauteur des bâtiments. Les deux zones de test choisies sont caractéristiques des différents types d'urbanisation présente à Lausanne et se révèlent par conséquent très intéressantes pour élaborer une méthodologie globale de la microgravimétrie urbaine. Le but était d'évaluer l'épaisseur du remplissage morainique sur un fond rocheux molassique se situant à une profondeur variable de quelques mètres à une trentaine de mètres et d'en établir une coupe dans l'axe du futur tracé du métro. Les résultats des modélisations se sont révélés très convaincants en détectant des zones qui diffèrent sensiblement du modèle géologique d'avant projet. Nous avons également démontré que l'application de cette méthode géophysique, non destructive, est à même de limiter le nombre de sondages mécaniques lors de l'avant-projet et du projet définitif, ce qui peut limiter à la fois les coûts et le dérangement engendré par ces travaux de surface. L'adaptabilité de la technique gravimétrique permet d'intervenir dans toutes les différentes phases d'un projet de génie civil comme celui de la construction d'un métro en souterrain. KURZFASSUNG Seit dem Frühling 2004 ist in der Stadt Lausanne (Schweiz) die neue U-Bahn "M2" in Konstruktion. Diese soll auf 6 km Länge die Lausanner Agglomeration von Süd nach Nord durchqueren. Die dem Projekt zu Grunde liegende technische Planung sieht vor, daß die Bahnlinie hauptsächlich in der Molasse angesiedelt sein wird. Seit dem Vorentwurf (1999) ist eine große Anzahl geologischer Angaben gesammelt worden. Daraus ergab sich die einmalige Gelegenheit, die Informationen aus den damit verbundenen zahlreichen Bohrungen zu einer detaillierten mikrogravimetrischen Studie der Stadt Lausanne zu erweitern und zu vervollständigen. Das Ziel bestand darin, die Mächtigkeit der die Molasseüberdeckenden Moräneablagerung abzuschätzen, um eine entsprechendes geologisches Profile entlang der künftigen Bahnlinie zu erstellen. Weiterhin sollte gezeigt werden, daß die Anwendung dieser nicht-invasiven geophysikalischen Methode es ermöglicht, die Anzahl der benötigten Bohrungen sowohl in der Pilotphase wie auch im endgültigen Projekt zu reduzieren, was zu wesentlichen finanziellen Einsparungen in der Ausführung des Werkes beitragen würde. Die beiden in dieser Studie bearbeiteten Testzonen befinden sich im Nordteil und im Stadtzentrum von Lausanne und sind durch eine unterschiedliche Urbanisierung charakterisiert. Das anstehende Gestein liegt in verschiedenen Tiefen: von einigen Metern bis zu etwa dreißig Metern. Diese Zonen weisen alle Schwierigkeiten einer urbanen Bebauung mit hoher Verkehrsdichte auf und waren daher massgebend bei der Ausarbeitung einer globalen mikrogravimetrischen Methodologie für die Stadt Lausanne. Die so entwickelte Technik ermöglicht, die störenden Auswirkungen der Topographie, der Gebäude, der Keller und der Öffentlichen Infrastrukturen sorgfältig zu korrigieren, um so die ausschließlich auf die Mächtigkeit des Lockergesteins zurückzuführenden Effekte zu isolieren. In Bezug auf die Intensität der Auswirkungen der topographischen Korrekturen im Stadtgebiet wurde den Untergeschossen eine besonders grosse Bedeutung zugemessen da die entsprechenden Schwerkrafteffekte eine Grösse von rund einem Zehntel mGal erreichen können. Wir schlagen deshalb vor, vorläufige Karten der topographischen Korrekturen zu erstellen. Diese Korrekturen basieren auf den uns vom Katasterplan gelieferten Daten und einigen Hypothesen bezüglich der Tiefe der Untergeschosse und der Höhe der Gebäude. Die Verfügbarkeit einer derartigen Karte vor der eigentlichen gravimetrischen Messkampagne würde uns erlauben, die Position der Meßstationen besser zu wählen. Wir sahen zudem, daß ein entsprechenden a priori Filter benutzt werden kann, wenn die Form und die Intensität der Anomalie offensichtlich dem entsprechenden Gebäude zugeordnet werden können. Diese Strategie muß jedoch mit Vorsicht angewandt werden, denn falls weitere Anomalien dazukommen, können bedeutende Verschiebungen durch Übèrlagerungen der Schwerewirkung verschiedener Strukturen entstehen. Die Ergebnisse der Modellierung haben sich als sehr überzeugend erwiesen, da sie im Voraus unbekannte sensible Zonen korrekt identifiziert haben. Die Anwendbarkeit der in dieser Arbeit entwickelten gravimetrischen Technik ermöglicht es, während allen Phasen eines Grossbauprojekts, wie zum Beispiel bei der Konstruktion einer unterirdischen U-Bahn, einzugreifen. ABSTRACT Since Spring of 2004 a new metro line has been under construction in the city of Lausanne in Switzerland. The new line, the M2, will be 6 km long and will traverse the city from south to north. The civil engineering project determined that the line would be located primarily in the Molasse. Since the preparatory project in 1999, a great quantity of geological data has been collected, and the many drillings made on the site have proved to be a unique opportunity to undertake a study of urban microgravimetry. The goal was to evaluate the thickness of the morainic filling over the molassic bedrock, and to establish a section along the axis of the future line. It then had to be shown that the application of this nondestructive geophysical method could reduce the number of mechanical surveys required both for a preparatory and a definitive project, which would lead to real savings in the realization of a civil engineering project. The two test zones chosen, one in the northern part of the city and one in the city centre, are characterised by various types of urbanisation. Bedrock is at a depth varying from a few metres to about thirty metres. These zones well exemplify the various difficulties encountered in an urban environment and are therefore very interesting for the development of an overall methodology of urban microgravimetry. Microgravimetry in an urban environment requires careful corrections for gravific disturbances due to the effects of topography, buildings, cellars, and the infrastructure of distribution networks, in order to isolate the gravific effect due exclusively to the thickness of loose soil filling. Bearing in mind the intensity of the topographic corrections in an urban environment, we gave particular importance to basements. Their gravific effects can reach the order of one tenth of one meal, and can influence above all the precision of the Bouguer anomaly. We propose to establish preliminary topographic correction charts based on data provided to us by the land register, by making assumptions on the depths of basements and the heights of buildings. Availability of this chart previous to a gravimetry campaign would enable us to choose optimum measuring sites. We have also seen that an a priori filter can be used when the form and the intensity of the anomaly correspond visually to the corresponding building. This strategy must be used with caution because if other anomalies are to be associated, important shifts can be generated by the superposition of the effects of different structures. The results of the model have proved to be very convincing in detecting previously unknown sensitive zones. The adaptability of the gravimetry technique allows for application in all phases of a civil engineering project such as the construction of an underground metro line. RIASSUNTO Dalla primavera 2004 una nuova linea metropolitana é in costruzione nella città di Losanna in Svizzera. La nuova metropolitana "M2" traverserà per la lunghezza di 6 km il centro urbano di Losanna da sud a nord. II progetto d'ingegneria civile prevedeva un tracciato situato essenzialmente nel fondo roccioso arenaceo terziario (molassa). Dalla redazione del progetto preliminare, avvenuta nel 1999, una grande quantità di dati geologici sono stati raccolti e sono stati eseguiti numerosi sondaggi. Questo sì é presentato come un'occasione unica per mettere a punto uno studio microgravimetrico in ambiente urbano con lo scopo di valutare lo spessore dei terreni sciolti di origine glaciale che ricoprono il fondo roccioso di molassa e di mettere in evidenza come l'applicazione di questo metodo geofisico non distruttivo possa limitare il numero di sondaggi meccanici nella fase di progetto preliminare ed esecutivo con conseguente reale risparmio economico nella realizzazione di una tale opera. Le due zone di test sono situate una nella zona nord e la seconda nel centro storico di Losanna e sono caratterizzate da stili architettonici differenti. II fondo roccioso é situato ad una profondità variabile da qualche metro ad una trentina. Queste due zone sembrano ben rappresentare tutte le difficoltà di un ambiente urbano e ben si prestano per elaborare una metodologia globale per la microgravimetria in ambiente urbano. L'applicazione di questa tecnica nell'ambiente suddetto implica la correzione attenta delle perturbazioni sulla misura dell'accelerazione gravitazionale, causate dalla topografia, gli edifici, le cantine e le infrastrutture dei sottoservizi, per ben isolare il segnale esclusivamente causato dallo spessore dei terreni sciolti. Tenuto conto, dell'intensità delle correzioni topografiche, abbiamo dato grande importanza alle cantine, poiché il loro effetto sulle misure può raggiungere il decimo di mGal. Proponiamo quindi di redigere una carta delle correzioni topografiche preliminare all'acquisizione, facendo delle ipotesi sulla profondità delle cantine e sull'altezza degli edifici, sulla base delle planimetrie catastali. L'analisi di questa carta permetterà di scegliere le posizioni più adatte per le stazioni gravimetriche. Abbiamo anche osservato che un filtro a priori, qualora la forma e l'intensità dell'anomalia fosse facilmente riconducibile in maniera visuale ad un edificio, possa essere efficace. Tuttavia questa strategia deve essere utilizzata con precauzione, poiché può introdurre uno scarto, qualora più anomalie, dovute a differenti strutture, si sovrappongano. I risultati delle modellizzazioni si sono rivelati convincenti, evidenziando zone sensibili non conosciute preventivamente. L'adattabilità della tecnica gravimetrica ha mostrato di poter intervenire in differenti fasi di un progetto di ingegneria civile, quale è quella di un'opera in sotterraneo.

Registries in rheumatological and musculoskeletal conditions. Paediatric Behçet's disease: an international cohort study of 110 patients. One-year follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To set-up an international cohort of patients suspected with Behçet's disease (BD). The cohort is aimed at defining an algorithm for definition of the disease in children. METHODS: International experts have defined the inclusion criteria as follows: recurrent oral aphthosis (ROA) plus one of following-genital ulceration, erythema nodosum, folliculitis, pustulous/acneiform lesions, positive pathergy test, uveitis, venous/arterial thrombosis and family history of BD. Onset of disease is <16 years, disease duration is ≤3 years, future follow-up duration is ≥4 years and informed consent is obtained. The expert committee has classified the included patients into: definite paediatric BD (PED-BD), probable PED-BD and no PED-BD. Statistical analysis is performed to compare the three groups of patients. Centres document their patients into a single database. RESULTS: At January 2010, 110 patients (56 males/54 females) have been included. Mean age at first symptom: 8.1 years (median 8.2 years). At inclusion, 38% had only one symptom associated with ROA, 31% had two and 31% had three or more symptoms. A total of 106 first evaluations have been done. Seventeen patients underwent the first-year evaluation, and 36 had no new symptoms, 12 had one and 9 had two. Experts have examined 48 files and classified 30 as definite and 18 as probable. Twenty-six patients classified as definite fulfilled the International Study Group criteria. Seventeen patients classified as probable did not meet the international criteria. CONCLUSION: The expert committee has classified the majority of patients in the BD group although they presented with few symptoms independently of BD classification criteria.

Time-lapse and probabilistic inversion strategies for plane-wave electromagnetic data.

L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.

Biases of the ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators of the intergenerational earnings elasticity : revisited in the light of panel data

The OLS estimator of the intergenerational earnings correlation is biased towards zero, while the instrumental variables estimator is biased upwards. The first of these results arises because of measurement error, while the latter rests on the presumption that the education of the parent family is an invalid instrument. We propose a panel data framework for quantifying the asymptotic biases of these estimators, as well as a mis-specification test for the IV estimator. [Author]