Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Clustering and hot spot detection in socio-economic spatio-temporal data

Distribution of socio-economic features in urban space is an important source of information for land and transportation planning. The metropolization phenomenon has changed the distribution of types of professions in space and has given birth to different spatial patterns that the urban planner must know in order to plan a sustainable city. Such distributions can be discovered by statistical and learning algorithms through different methods. In this paper, an unsupervised classification method and a cluster detection method are discussed and applied to analyze the socio-economic structure of Switzerland. The unsupervised classification method, based on Ward's classification and self-organized maps, is used to classify the municipalities of the country and allows to reduce a highly-dimensional input information to interpret the socio-economic landscape. The cluster detection method, the spatial scan statistics, is used in a more specific manner in order to detect hot spots of certain types of service activities. The method is applied to the distribution services in the agglomeration of Lausanne. Results show the emergence of new centralities and can be analyzed in both transportation and social terms.

Distribution of dengue vectors in neighborhoods with different urbanization types of Manaus, state of Amazonas, Brazil

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are vectors of dengue viruses, which cause endemic disease in the city of Manaus, capital of the state of Amazonas, Brazil. More than 53 thousand cases have been registered in this city since the first epidemic in 1998. We evaluated the hypothesis that different ecological conditions result in different patterns of vector infestation in Manaus, by measuring the infestation level in four neighborhoods with different urbanization patterns, during the rainy (April), dry (August), and transitional (November) seasons. Ae. aegypti predominated throughout the study areas and sampling periods, representing 86% of all specimens collected in oviposition traps. High frequencies of houses positive for both species were observed in all studied sites, with Ae. aegypti present in more than 84% of the houses in all seasons. Ae. albopictus, on the other hand, showed more spatial and temporal variation in abundance. We found no association between infestation level and house traits. This study highlights the homogeneity of dengue vector distribution in Manaus.

Spatio-temporal trends of mortality in small areas of Southern Spain

Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.

Fine-tuning the space, time, and host distribution of mycobacteria in wildlife.

Background. We describe the diversity of two kinds of mycobacteria isolates, environmental mycobacteria and Mycobacterium bovis collected from wild boar, fallow deer, red deer and cattle in Doñana National Park (DNP, Spain), analyzing their association with temporal, spatial and environmental factors. Results. High diversity of environmental mycobacteria species and M. bovis typing patterns (TPs) were found. When assessing the factors underlying the presence of the most common types of both environmental mycobacteria and M. bovis TPs in DNP, we evidenced (i) host species differences in the occurrence, (ii) spatial structuration and (iii) differences in the degree of spatial association of specific types between host species. Co-infection of a single host by two M. bovis TPs occurred in all three wild ungulate species. In wild boar and red deer, isolation of one group of mycobacteria occurred more frequently in individuals not infected by the other group. While only three TPs were detected in wildlife between 1998 and 2003, up to 8 different ones were found during 2006-2007. The opposite was observed in cattle. Belonging to an M. bovis-infected social group was a significant risk factor for mycobacterial infection in red deer and wild boar, but not for fallow deer. M. bovis TPs were usually found closer to water marshland than MOTT. Conclusions. The diversity of mycobacteria described herein is indicative of multiple introduction events and a complex multi-host and multi-pathogen epidemiology in DNP. Significant changes in the mycobacterial isolate community may have taken place, even in a short time period (1998 to 2007). Aspects of host social organization should be taken into account in wildlife epidemiology. Wildlife in DNP is frequently exposed to different species of non-tuberculous, environmental mycobacteria, which could interact with the immune response to pathogenic mycobacteria, although the effects are unknown. This research highlights the suitability of molecular typing for surveys at small spatial and temporal scales.

Fine-tuning the space, time, and host distribution of mycobacteria in wildlife.

BACKGROUND We describe the diversity of two kinds of mycobacteria isolates, environmental mycobacteria and Mycobacterium bovis collected from wild boar, fallow deer, red deer and cattle in Doñana National Park (DNP, Spain), analyzing their association with temporal, spatial and environmental factors. RESULTS High diversity of environmental mycobacteria species and M. bovis typing patterns (TPs) were found. When assessing the factors underlying the presence of the most common types of both environmental mycobacteria and M. bovis TPs in DNP, we evidenced (i) host species differences in the occurrence, (ii) spatial structuration and (iii) differences in the degree of spatial association of specific types between host species. Co-infection of a single host by two M. bovis TPs occurred in all three wild ungulate species. In wild boar and red deer, isolation of one group of mycobacteria occurred more frequently in individuals not infected by the other group. While only three TPs were detected in wildlife between 1998 and 2003, up to 8 different ones were found during 2006-2007. The opposite was observed in cattle. Belonging to an M. bovis-infected social group was a significant risk factor for mycobacterial infection in red deer and wild boar, but not for fallow deer. M. bovis TPs were usually found closer to water marshland than MOTT. CONCLUSIONS The diversity of mycobacteria described herein is indicative of multiple introduction events and a complex multi-host and multi-pathogen epidemiology in DNP. Significant changes in the mycobacterial isolate community may have taken place, even in a short time period (1998 to 2007). Aspects of host social organization should be taken into account in wildlife epidemiology. Wildlife in DNP is frequently exposed to different species of non-tuberculous, environmental mycobacteria, which could interact with the immune response to pathogenic mycobacteria, although the effects are unknown. This research highlights the suitability of molecular typing for surveys at small spatial and temporal scales.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Spatial and temporal changes in Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance, a Leishmania infantum vector in an urban area in northeastern Argentina

This study aimed to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Posadas, an urban area located in northeastern Argentina. Data were obtained during the summer of 2007 and 2009 through two entomological surveys of peridomiciles distributed around the city. The abundance distribution pattern for 2009 was computed and compared with the previous pattern obtained in 2007, when the first human visceral leishmaniasis cases were reported in the city. Vector abundance was also examined in relation to micro and macrohabitat characteristics. In 2007 and 2009, Lu. longipalpis was distributed among 41.5% and 31% of the households in the study area, respectively. In both years, the abundance rates at most of the trapping sites were below 30 Lu. longipalpis per trap per night; however, for areas exhibiting 30-60 Lu. longipalpis and more than 60 Lu. longipalpis, the areas increased in both size and number from 2007-2009. Lu. longipalpis was more abundant in areas with a higher tree and bush cover (a macrohabitat characteristic) and in peridomiciles with accumulated unused material (a microhabitat characteristic). These results will help to prioritise and focus control efforts by defining which peridomiciles display a potentially high abundance of Lu. longipalpis.

Spatial and temporal country-wide survey of temephos resistance in Brazilian populations of Aedes aegypti

The organophosphate temephos has been the main insecticide used against larvae of the dengue and yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) in Brazil since the mid-1980s. Reports of resistance date back to 1995; however, no systematic reports of widespread temephos resistance have occurred to date. As resistance investigation is paramount for strategic decision-making by health officials, our objective here was to investigate the spatial and temporal spread of temephos resistance in Ae. aegypti in Brazil for the last 12 years using discriminating temephos concentrations and the bioassay protocols of the World Health Organization. The mortality results obtained were subjected to spatial analysis for distance interpolation using semi-variance models to generate maps that depict the spread of temephos resistance in Brazil since 1999. The problem has been expanding. Since 2002-2003, approximately half the country has exhibited mosquito populations resistant to temephos. The frequency of temephos resistance and, likely, control failures, which start when the insecticide mortality level drops below 80%, has increased even further since 2004. Few parts of Brazil are able to achieve the target 80% efficacy threshold by 2010/2011, resulting in a significant risk of control failure by temephos in most of the country. The widespread resistance to temephos in Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations greatly compromise effective mosquito control efforts using this insecticide and indicates the urgent need to identify alternative insecticides aided by the preventive elimination of potential mosquito breeding sites.

Distribution of neuronal and metabolic markers in the human auditory cortex

SUMMARY The human auditory cortex, located on the supratemporal plane of the temporal lobe, is divided in a primary auditory area and several non-primary areas surrounding it. These different areas show anatomical and functional differences. Many studies have focussed on auditory areas in non-human primates, using investigation techniques such as electrophysiological recordings, tracing of neural connections, or immunohistochemical and histochemical staining. Some of these studies have suggested parallel and hierarchical organization of the cortical auditory areas as well as subcortical auditory relays. In humans, only few studies have investigated these regions immunohistochemically, but activation and lesion studies speak in favour of parallel and hierarchical organization, very similar to that of non-human primates. Calcium-binding proteins and metabolic markers were used to investigate possible correlates of hierarchical and parallel organization in man. Calcium-binding proteins, parvalbumin, calretinin and calbindin, modulate the concentration of intracellular free calcium ions and were found in distinct subpopulations of GABAergic neurons in non-human primates species. In our study, their distribution showed several differences between auditory areas: the primary auditory area was darkly stained for both parvalbumin and calbindin, and their expression rapidly decreased while moving away from the primary area. This staining pattern suggests a hierarchical organization of the areas, in which the more darkly stained areas could correspond to an earlier integration level and the areas showing light staining may correspond to higher level integration areas. Parallel organization of primary and non-primary auditory areas was suggested by the complementarity, within a given area, between parvalbumin and calbindin expression across layers. To investigate the possible differences in the energetic metabolism of the cortical auditory areas, several metabolic markers were used: cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 were used as oxidative metabolism markers and LDH5 was used as glycolytic metabolism marker. The results obtained show a difference in the expression of enzymes involved in oxidative metabolism between areas. In the primary auditory area the oxidative metabolism markers were maximally expressed in layer IV. In contrast, higher order areas showed maximal staining in supragranular layers. The expression of LDH5 varied in patches, but did not differ between the different hierarchical auditory areas. The distribution of the two LDH enzymes isoforms also provides information about cellular aspects of metabolic organization, since neurons expressed the LDH1 isoform whereas astrocytes express primarily LDH5, but some astrocytes also contained the LDH1 isoform. This cellular distribution pattern supports the hypothesis of the existence of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle, previously suggested in rodent studies, and in particular of lactate transfer from astrocytes, which produce lactate from the glucose obtained from the circulation, to neurons that use lactate as energy substrate. In conclusion, the hypothesis of parallel and hierarchical organization of the auditory areas can be supported by CaBPs, cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 distribution. Moreover, the two LDHs cellular distribution pattern support the hypothesis of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle in human cortex.

Seasonality and temporal structuration of Alticini community (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae) in the Araucaria Forest of Parana, Brazil

Seasonality was studied for Alticini trapped with malaise over a period of two years in the Vila Velha State Park, Parana, Brazil. Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae and Alticini showed seasonal distribution, with the highest abundance during spring and summer months. The abundance peaks of these groups were not synchronized. Of all environmental variables tested, photoperiod had the larger effect on the distributional patterns of Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae and Alticini. Also, Chrysomelidae and Alticini probably are related to the quality and availability of host-plants. When richness was high there was a greater similarity among seasons of different years. However, when richness was not pronounced, seasons showed more similarity within the same year than between years. The Alticini community was seasonally structured and a possible mechanism underlying this pattern is asymmetric competition. Nevertheless, it is necessary to account for indirect interactions (plant-enemy mediated) to better understand how Alticini community is structured.

Temporal Geobiotic Mapping: a conceptual mapping technique toward visualising geobiotic areas in cross-section

Geobiota are defined by taxic assemblages (i.e., biota) and their defining abiotic breaks, which are mapped in cross-section to reveal past and future biotic boundaries. We term this conceptual approach Temporal Geobiotic Mapping (TGM) and offer it as a conceptual approach for biogeography. TGM is based on geological cross-sectioning, which creates maps based on the distribution of biota and known abiotic factors that drive their distribution, such as climate, topography, soil chemistry and underlying geology. However, the availability of abiotic data is limited for many areas. Unlike other approaches, TGM can be used when there is minimal data available. In order to demonstrate TGM, we use the well-known area in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales (NSW), south-eastern Australia and show how surface processes such as weathering and erosion affect the future distribution of a Moist Basalt Forest taxic assemblage. Biotic areas are best represented visually as maps, which can show transgressions and regressions of biota and abiota over time. Using such maps, a biogeographer can directly compare animal and plant distributions with features in the abiotic environment and may identify significant geographical barriers or pathways that explain biotic distributions.

Dinámica espacio temporal en la ecología trófica de la anchoveta (Engraulis ringens Jenyns, 1842; pisces: engraulide) en el mar peruano

El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar las variaciones ontogénicas, espaciales y nictemerales en la dieta de la anchoveta peruana (Engraulis ringens). El trabajo se basa en el análisis de contenido estomacal de 13 430 anchovetas (peces de 4 a 19,5 cm) muestreados durante 22 cruceros de investigación realizados a bordo de las embarcaciones científicas del Instituto del Mar del Perú durante el período 1996-2003. Previo a los análisis estadísticos la contribución de cada grupo de presa fue convertido a carbonó. Los datos fueron procesados por medio de estadística uni y multivariada en función de la talla de la anchoveta, la latitud, la distancia de la costa, la distancia del borde de la plataforma continental y el período nictemeral. Los resultados enseñan que la anchoveta se alimenta mayormente de zooplancton cualquier sea su tamaño o su distribución espaciotemporal. La anchoveta cambio gradualmente su dieta a lo largo de su ciclo de vida. Así, los individuos mas pequeños han ingerido mayormente copépodos calanoideos (68.0%) y eufausidos (23.3%), mientras que los individuos mas grandes ingirieron mayormente eufausidos (84.9%) y copépodos calanoideos (11.5%). Latitudinalmente, la mayor contribución de los copépodos calanoideos se observó en las zonas de afloramiento de Chicama y San Juan, con el 52.3% y 47.5%, respectivamente. Hasta los 160 km de distancia de la costa, no se ha observado un patrón regular en la contribución de las principales presas, mientras que por fuera, se insinúa un patrón caracterizado por el predominio de los eufausidos (>84%) y la menor contribución de copépodos calanoideos (<14,1%). En la plataforma continental los eufausidos contribuyeron con el 55.6% y los copépodos calanoideos con el 36.9%; mientras que por fuera de esa zona, los eufausidos se incrementaron al 75.3% y los copépodos calanoideos disminuyeron al 20.1%. Al considerar el período nictemeral, el ítem presa predominante durante el día fueron los eufausidos (52.7%) seguido de los copépodos calanoideos (40.9%); mientras que durante la noche, los eufausidos se incrementaron al 80.2% y los copépodos calanoideos disminuyeron al 15.7%. Estos resultados contradicen lo que se conocía acerca de la variabilidad de la dieta de la anchoveta, desestimándose: (i) que en el norte es fitoplanctívora y en el sur es zooplanctívora; (ii) que la fracción zooplanctónica es mayor en la zona oceánica. Asimismo, se ha demostrado que: (i) la anchoveta es principalmente zooplanctófaga durante su ciclo de vida, con modificaciones que corresponden a la mayor ingesta de presas pequeñas cuando son juveniles y de presas grandes cuando son adultas, (ii) en la zona de influencia de la plataforma continental consume aproximadamente el doble de copépodos calanoideos que en la zona oceánica, y aproximadamente una tercera parte menos de eufausidos en la zona interna que en la zona oceánica, y (iii) durante la noche y el día ingiere principalmente eufausidos pero la contribución de los copépodos calanoideos sube al 40%.

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Temporal and spatial origin of Gesneriaceae in the New World inferred from plastid DNA sequences

Gesneriaceae are represented in the New World (NW) by a major clade (c. 1000 species) currently recognized as subfamily Gesnerioideae. Radiation of this group occurred in all biomes of tropical America and was accompanied by extensive phenotypic and ecological diversification. Here we performed phylogenetic analyses using DNA sequences from three plastid loci to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Gesnerioideae and to investigate its relationship with other lineages of Gesneriaceae and Lamiales. Our molecular data confirm the inclusion of the South Pacific Coronanthereae and the Old World (OW) monotypic genus Titanotrichum in Gesnerioideae and the sister-group relationship of this subfamily to the rest of the OW Gesneriaceae. Calceolariaceae and the NW genera Peltanthera and Sanango appeared successively sister to Gesneriaceae, whereas Cubitanthus, which has been previously assigned to Gesneriaceae, is shown to be related to Linderniaceae. Based on molecular dating and biogeographical reconstruction analyses, we suggest that ancestors of Gesneriaceae originated in South America during the Late Cretaceous. Distribution of Gesneriaceae in the Palaeotropics and Australasia was inferred as resulting from two independent long-distance dispersals during the Eocene and Oligocene, respectively. In a short time span starting at 34 Mya, ancestors of Gesnerioideae colonized several Neotropical regions including the tropical Andes, Brazilian Atlantic forest, cerrado, Central America and the West Indies. Subsequent diversification within these areas occurred largely in situ and was particularly extensive in the mountainous systems of the Andes, Central America and the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Only two radiations account for 90% of the diversity of Gesneriaceae in the Brazilian Atlantic forest, whereas half of the species richness in the northern Andes and Central America originated during the last 10 Myr from a single radiation.