An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The BRCA2 372 HH genotype is associated with risk of breast cancer in Australian women under age 60 years

The BRCA2 N372H nonconservative amino acid substitution polymorphism appears to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner, and the HH genotype was found to be associated with a 1.3-fold risk of breast cancer from pooling five case-control studies of Northern European women. We investigated whether the BR 2 N372H polymorphism was associated with breast cancer in Australian women using a population-based case-control design. The BRCA2 372 genotype was determined in 1397 cases under the age of 60 years at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and in 775 population-sampled controls frequency matched for age. Case-control analyses and comparisons of genotype distributions were conducted using logistic regression. All of the statistical tests were two-tailed. The HH genotype was independent of age and family history of breast cancer within cases and controls, and was more common in cases (9.2% versus 6.5%). It was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, 1.47-fold unadjusted (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.07; P = 0.02), and 1.42-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.02; P = 0.05) after adjusting for measured risk factors. This effect was still evident after excluding women with any non-Caucasian ancestry or the 33 cases known to have inherited a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, and would explain similar to3% of breast cancer. The BRCA2 N372H polymorphism appears to be associated with a modest recessively inherited risk of breast cancer in Australian women. This result is consistent with the findings for Northern European women.

Relationship of high energy expenditure and variation in dietary intake with reporting accuracy on 7 day food records and diet histories in a group of healthy adult volunteers

Objectives: To assess the accuracy of reporting from both a diet history and food record and identify some of the characteristics of more accurate reporters in a group of healthy adult volunteers for an energy balance study. Design: Prospective measurements in free-living people. Setting: Wollongong, Australia. Subjects: Fifteen healthy volunteers (seven male, eight female; aged 22 -59 y; body mass index (BMI) 19 - 33 kg/m(2)) from the local community in the city of Wollongong, Australia. Interventions: Measurement of energy intake via diet history interview and 7 day food records, total energy expenditure by the doubly labelled water technique over 14 days, physical activity by questionnaire, and body fat by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: Increased misreporting of energy intake was associated with increased energy expenditure (r = 0.90, P < 0.0001, diet history; r(s)=0.79, P=0.0005, food records) but was not associated with age, sex, BMI or body fat. Range in number of recorded dinner foods correlated positively with energy expenditure (r(s)=0.63, P=0.01) and degree of misreporting (r(s)=0.71, P=0.003, diet history; r(s)=0.63, P=0.01, food records). Variation in energy intake at dinner and over the whole day identified by the food records correlated positively with energy expenditure (r=0.58, P = 0.02) and misreporting on the diet history (r=0.62, P=0.01). Conclusions: Subjects who are highly active or who have variable dietary and exercise behaviour may be less accurate in reporting dietary intake. Our findings indicate that it may be necessary to screen for these characteristics in studies where accuracy of reporting at an individual level is critical. Sponsorship: The study was supported in part by Australian Research Council funds made available through the University of Wollongong.

Age-related lifecycles - Purpose variations

By describing and discussing Australian data on outbound tourism, this paper investigates the bimodal (double peaked) lifecycle pattern predicted and observed in the literature. These theories are primarily based on demand for holiday tourism, but tourists do not just go overseas for this purpose, with visiting friends and relatives, business, convention and conference, employment and educational tourism relevant purposes also. Trips overseas by Australians are split into these groups, enabling the age-related lifecycles of each to be examined separately. Unlike holiday tourism, all other purposes are unimodal, although they vary with respect to the age groups at which they peak and their relative positions.

Energy intake and energy expenditure in elite lightweight female rowers

Purpose: The training program undertaken by many athletes will affect directly the total, habitual energy requirements of that individual. Unless that energy requirement is met via the diet and or supplementation, chronic negative energy balance will ensue, which will have both short-term and long-term effects not only on performance but also on general health. The aim of this research was therefore to determine the energy expenditure (EE) and hence energy requirements of lightweight female rowers and, further, to compare this with their self-reported energy intake (EI). Methods: The El of seven lightweight female rowers was measured using a self-reported 4-d weighed dietary record. EE was determined using the doubly labeled water (DLW) technique over a 14-d period. Results: The mean (+/-SD) age, height, and weight of the subjects was 20 (+/-1.1) yr, 168.8 (+/-4.7) cm, and 60.9 (+/-23) kg, respectively. The rowers self-reported El was 2214 (+/-313) kcal.d(-1) and their total EE was 3957 (+/-1219) kcal.d(-1). After adjusting total EE for changes in body weight (mean (+/-SD) - 1.2 (+/-1.2) kg), the comparison between adjusted El and reported showed a bias to underreporting of 1133 (+/-1539) kcal.d(-1) or 34%. The bias was not consistent across adjusted El, and two of the seven subjects overreported their intake. Conclusions: Due to the underreporting of EI, diet recording may not be an appropriate way of assessing energy requirements in lightweight female rowers. A benefit of accurately determining energy requirements, as with DLW, is that female lightweight rowers will be able to successfully manipulate their EI and achieve the set weight cut-off for participation without compromising their health or performance.

Growth of subtropical ECM fungi with different nitrogen sources using a new floating culture technique

Eight species of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in the genera Amanita. Gymnoboletus, Lactarius, and Russula were isolated from subtropical plant communities in eastem Australia. Two species were isolated from each of rainforest, Nothofagus forest, Eucalyptus forest, and Eucalyptus dominated wallum (heath) forest. These communities differ strongly in their soluble soil nitrogen (N) composition. The ability of the fungi to use inorganic (nitrate, ammonium) and organic (amide, peptide, protein) nitrogen sources was determined. As the fungi did not grow in liquid culture, a 'floating culture' technique was devised that allows hyphal growth on a screen floating on liquid medium. With some exceptions, fungal biomass production in floating culture closely reflected fungal growth on solid media assessed by total colony glucosamine content. Most isolates grown in floating culture had similar glucosamine concentrations on all N sources, with isolate specific concentrations ranging from 6 to 12 mug glucosamine g(-1) DW. However, Russula spp. had up to 1.7-fold higher glucosamine concentrations when growing with glutamine or ammonium compared to nitrate, glutathione or protein. Floating cultures supplied with 0.5, 1.5. 4.5, or 10 mm N mostly produced greatest biomass with 4.5 mM N. In vitro nitrate reductase activity (NRA) ranged from very low (0.03 mumol NO2- g(-1) fw h(-1)) in Russula sp. (wallum) to high (2.16 mumol NO2- g(-1) fw h(-1)) in Gymnoboletus sp. (rainforest) and mirrored the fungi's ability to use nitrate as a N source. All Russula spp. (wallum, Nothofagus and Eucalyptus forests), Lactarills sp, (rainforest) and.4manita sp. (wallum) utilized ammonium and glutamine but had little ability to use other N sources. In contrast,Amanita species (Nothofagus and Eucalyptus forests) grew on all N sources but produced most biomass with ammonium and glutamine. Only Gymnoboletus sp. (rainforest) showed similar growth with nitrate and ammonium as N sources. Fungal N source use was not associated with taxonomic groups, but is discussed in the context of soil N sources in the different habitats.

A new technique for the quantification of peripheral edema with application in both unilateral and bilateral cases

Current noninvasive techniques for the routine and frequent quantification of peripheral lymphedema in patients are total limb volume measurement (by water immersion or by circumferential measurements) and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). However both of these techniques require standardizing the measurement using a contralateral measurement from the unaffected limb, Hence these techniques are essentially restricted to unilateral lymphedema. This paper describes the results from a preliminary study to investigate an alternative approach to the analysis of the data from multiple frequency BIA to produce an index of lymphedema without the need for normalization to another body segment. Twenty patients receiving surgical treatment for breast cancer were monitored prior to surgery and again after diagnosis with unilateral lymphedema. The data recorded were total limb volume, by circumferential measurements; and BIA measurements of both limbs. From these measurements total limb volumes and extracellular fluid volumes were calculated and expressed as ratios of the affected limb to that of the unaffected limb. An index of the ratio of the extracellular fluid volume to the intracellular fluid volume was determined. This ECW/ICW index was calculated for both the affected and unaffected limbs at both measurement times. Results confirmed that the established techniques of total limb volume and extracellular fluid volume normalized to the unaffected contralateral limb were accurate in the detection of lymphedema (p < 10(-6)). Comparison of the ECW/ICW index from the affected limb after diagnosis with that from the pre-surgery measurement revealed a significant (p< 10(-6)) and considerable (75%) increase. The results of this pilot study suggest that by using multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis, an index of the ECW/ICW ratio can be obtained and this index appears to have an equal, or better, sensitivity, than the other techniques in detecting lymphedema. More importantly, this index does not require normalization to another body segment and can be used to detect all types of peripheral edema including both unilateral and bilateral lymphedema.

Rhythmic variations in pain, stiffness, and manual dexterity in hand osteoarthritis

Objective: To explore circadian variation in pain, stiffness, and manual dexterity inpatients with hand osteoarthritis (OA). Methods: Twenty one patients with hand OA, as defined by ACR criteria (17 women, four men, mean age 62.2 years, range 52-74 years) self rated pain and stiffness on separate 10 cm horizontal visual analogue scales and performed bead intubation coordinometry (BIC) six times each day (on waking up, at bedtime, and every four hours in between) for 10 consecutive days. Each series (using data with the trend removed if there was a significant trend) was analysed for circadian rhythmicity by a cosine. vector technique (single cosinor). With individual data expressed as the percentage of the mean, group rhythm characteristics at period 24 hours were summarised for each variable by population mean cosinor analysis. Results: Individual analyses identified significant circadian rhythms at pless than or equal to0.05 for pain (n=15/21), stiffness (n=16/20), and dexterity (n=18/21), and a significant circadian rhythm on a group basis was identified for pain (p=0.013), stiffness (p

Kinematic analysis of lingual fatigue in myasthenia gravis

This study describes a preliminary examination of the viability and suitability of the physiologic technique electromagnetic articulography (EMA) in investigating lingual fatigue in myasthenia gravis (MG). A 52.9-year-old female diagnosed with MG at the age of 18 years, but who was in remission, participated in the study with a matched control subject. Changes in the duration, speed, and range of tongue-tip and tongue-back movements during repetition of /taka/ over two minutes were investigated. Results revealed that the MG subject did not exhibit significant changes in duration, maximum velocity, maximum acceleration, or the distance travelled by her tongue as measured by EMA over the task. The kinematic results were, in part, expected since the MG subject was in remission. The results, therefore, may not be representative of the majority of individuals with active MG. The examination of the current case did highlight, however, the potential advantages of EMA in providing detailed, objective information regarding lingual kinematics for future investigations of individuals with MG. It also showed that EMA may be sensitive in detecting subclinical kinematic features of fatigue in individuals who are in remission from MG. Finally, EMA led to the identification of possible physiologic factors underlying the CV transform effect, which was evident for the MG subject's syllable productions. In the past, the effect had been assumed to be a purely perceptual-based phenomenon.

Acoustic signature of the normal swallow: Characterization by age, gender, and bolus volume

Despite growing clinical use, cervical auscultation suffers from a lack of research-based data. One of the strongest criticisms of cervical auscultation is that there has been little research to demonstrate how dysphagic swallowing sounds are different from normal swallowing sounds, In order to answer this question, however, one first needs to document the acoustic characteristics of normal, nondysphagic swallowing sounds, This article provides the first normative database of normal swallowing sounds for the adult population. The current investigation documents the acoustic characteristics of normal swallowing sounds for individuals from 18 to more than 60 years of age over a range of thin liquid volumes. Previous research has shown the normal swallow to be a dynamic event. The normal swallow is sensitive to aging of the oropharyngeal system, and also to the volume of bolus swallowed. The current investigation found that the acoustic signals generated during swallowing were sensitive to an individual's age and to the volume of the bolus swallowed. There were also some gender-specific differences in the acoustic profile of the swallowing sound, It is anticipated that the results will provide a catalyst for further research into cervical auscultation.

Age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity in youth

TROST. S. G., R. R. PATE, J. F. SALLIS, P. S. FREEDSON, W. C. TAYLOR, M. DOWDA, and J. SIRARD. Age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity in youth. Med. Sci. Sports Ererc., Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 350-355, 2002. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity (PA) in a population-based sample of students in grades 1-12. Methods: Participants (185 male, 190 female) wore a CSA 7164 accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. To examine age-related trends. students were grouped as follows: grades 1-3 (N = 90), grades 4-6 (N = 91), grades 7-9 (N = 96). and grades 10-12 (N = 92). Bouts of PA and minutes spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and vigorous PA (VPA) were examined. Results: Daily MVPA and VPA exhibited a significant inverse relationship with grade level, with the largest differences occurring between grades 1d-3 and 4-6. Boys were more active than girls; however, for overall PA, the magnitudes of the gender differences were modest. Participation in continuous 20-min bouts of PA was low to nonexistent. Conclusion: Our results support the notion that PA declines rapidly during childhood and adolescence and that accelerometers are feasible alternatives to self-report methods in moderately sized population-level surveillance studies.