Taylor rule with hidden states

This work evaluates empirically the Taylor rule for the US and Brazil using Kalman Filter and Markov-Switching Regimes. We show that the parameters of the rule change significantly with variations in both output and output gap proxies, considering hidden variables and states. Such conclusions call naturally for robust optimal monetary rules. We also show that Brazil and US have very contrasting parameters, first because Brazil presents time-varying intercept, second because of the rigidity in the parameters of the Brazilian Taylor rule, regardless the output gap proxy, data frequency or sample data. Finally, we show that the long-run inflation parameter of the US Taylor rule is less than one in many periods, contrasting strongly with Orphanides (forthcoming) and Clarida, Gal´i and Gertler (2000), and the same happens with Brazilian monthly data.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Analysis of the Priestley-Taylor alpha parameter for a bean crop

This work deals with the Priestley-Taylor model for evapotranspiration in different grown stages of a bean crop. Priestley and Taylor derived a practical Formulation for energy partitioning between the sensible and latent heat fluxes through the a parameter. Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB) was carried out for daily sensible and latent heat flux estimations in three different crop stages. Mean daily values of Priestley-Taylor a parameter were determined for eleven days during the crop cycle. Diurnal variation patterns of a are presented for the growing, flowering and graining periods. The mean values of 1.13 +/- 0.33, 1.26 +/- 0.74, 1.22 +/- 0.55 were obtained for a day in the growing, in the flowering and for graining periods, respectively. Eleven days values of a are shown and gave a mean value of 1.23 +/- 0.10 which agree on the reported literature.

Amostragem seqüencial com base na lei de Taylor para levantamento de Spodoptera frugiperda na cultura do milho

A lagarta do cartucho do milho é uma das principais pragas do milho nas Américas, podendo ocorrer durante todos os estágios de crescimento da cultura, causando perdas de 15 a 37% na produção. Neste trabalho estudou-se a distribuição espacial dessa praga no campo, com a finalidade de desenvolver um sistema de amostragem para estimar sua densidade populacional. Na área cultivada com milho foram selecionados 3 campos experimentais de 40 m x 250 m cada, divididos em 100 parcelas cada. Foram contados o número de lagartas pequenas e grandes de S. frugiperda nas folhas e no cartucho das plantas, em 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, num total de 1000 plantas por campo, em 5, 5 e 4 datas de amostragem, respectivamente. Lagartas menores que 1 cm eram consideradas pequenas e lagartas maiores que 1 cm, grandes. Foram estimados os parâmetros da lei de Taylor, sendo as estimativas dos parâmetros das regressões altamente significativas para todas as categorias larvais. O parâmetro b da lei de Taylor para lagarta pequena foi igual a 1,57, indicando que a forma de distribuição dessa categoria larval é agregada. Para lagartas grandes o parâmetro b foi igual a 0,79, o que conduz a um tipo de distribuição tendendo para aleatoriedade. Para o número total de lagartas os resultados são equivalentes aos obtidos para lagartas pequenas. Foi desenvolvido um plano de amostragem seqüencial com base nos parâmetros da lei de Taylor.

Processo de trabalho e eficiência produtiva: Smith, Marx, Taylor e Lênin

A partir de reflexão sobre uma hipotética transição do capitalismo em sua natureza manufatureira ao socialismo, procura-se deixar marcada a razão pela qual, seguindo a proposta de Marx, essa transição exige que a produção se realize sob a égide da maquinaria. Consegue-se, como parte dessa reflexão, identificar, para o caso da manufatura, um trade-off entre eficiência produtiva e humanização das atividades de trabalho. Procura-se esclarecer que, dada a natureza do taylorismo-fordismo como reinvenção da manufatura, o exercício de início especulativo passa a ter sentido histórico. Busca-se argumentar que a ampla assimilação do taylorismo-fordismo pela experiência de implantação do socialismo na União Soviética a aprisionou ao mencionado trade-off , fazendo com que a primeira experiência de superação do capitalismo se impregnasse perversamente da mediocridade imanente ao taylorismo-fordismo. Finalmente, são feitos rápidos comentários acerca dos desdobramentos da recente automação de base microeletrônica sobre a natureza de um projeto socialista.

Structural carbon/epoxy prepregs properties comparison by thermal and rheological analyses

Two different carbon/epoxy prepreg materials were characterized and compared using thermal (DSC, TGA, and DMA) and rheological analyses. A prepreg system (carbon fiber preimpregnated with epoxy resin F584) that is currently used in the commercial airplane industry was compared with a prepreg system that is a prospective candidate for the same applications (carbon fiber prepreg/epoxy resin 8552). The differences in the curing kinetics mechanisms of both prepreg systems were identified through the DSC, TGA, DMA, and rheological analyses. Based on these thermal analysis techniques, it was verified that the curing of both epoxy resin systems follow a cure kinetic of n order. Even though their reaction heats were found to be slightly different, the kinetics of these systems were nevertheless very similar. The activation energies for both prepreg systems were determined by DSC analysis, using Arrhenius's method, and were found to be quite similar. DMA measurements of the cured prepregs demonstrated that they exhibited similar degrees of cure and different glass transition temperatures. Furthermore, the use of the rheological analysis revealed small differences in the gel temperatures of the two prepreg systems that were examined.

Analysis of the Priestley-Taylor α parameter for a bean crop

This work deals with the Priestley-Taylor model for evapotranspiration in different grown stages of a bean crop. Priestley and Taylor derived a practical formulation for energy partitioning between the sensible and latent heat fluxes through the α parameter. Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB) was carried out for daily sensible and latent heat flux estimations in three different crop stages. Mean daily values of Priestley-Taylor α parameter were determined for eleven days during the crop cycle. Diurnal variation patterns of α are presented for the growing, flowering and graining periods. The mean values of 1.13 ± 0.33, 1.26 ± 0.74, 1.22 ± 0.55 were obtained for a day in the growing, in the flowering and for graining periods, respectively. Eleven days values of α are shown and gave a mean value of 1.23 ± 0.10 which agree on the reported literature.

Chemistry and bioactivity of Raulinoa echinata Cowan, an endemic Brazilian rutaceae species

The hexane extract of the stems of Raulinoa echinata afforded the sesquiterpenes germacrene D (6), 1β,6α-dihydroxy-4-(15)-eudesmene (4) and oplopanone (5); the triterpenes squalene, isomultiflorenol (7), isobauerenol (8) and friedelin (9); the protolimonoids melianone (2) and melianodiol (3); and the pyranocoumarin 3-(1′-1′-dimethylallyl)-lomatin (1), which has not been reported previously as a natural product; together with β-sitosterol. The hexane extract and some of these compounds were assayed in vitro against trypomastigote forms of Trypanosoma cruzi. Brine shrimp lethality and antimicrobial activities of the crude extract and pure compounds were also evaluated.

Ocorrência de formigas Acromyrmex Mayr, 1865, em alguns municípios do Brasil

It were collected species of Acromyrmex Mayr, 1865 in many brazilian cities from Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Rondônia and Amapá states and in Paraguay and Uruguay, with the purpose to bring up-to-date their occurrence. Specimens collected on trips were identified at laboratory of Fca/Unesp/Botucatu-SP. It were recorded, for the first time, the occurrence of A. rugosus rugosus (F. Smith, 1858) in Paraná, Rondônia and Santa Catarina states; A. subterraneus subterraneus (Forel, 1893) in Amapá and Bahia; A. diasi Gonçalves, 1982 in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná states; A. coronatus (Fabricius, 1804) in Paraná; A. balzani (Emery, 1890) in Amapá and A. subterranens brunneus (Forel, 1911) in Goiás.

Clinical and molecular phenotype of Aicardi-Goutières syndrome

Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS) is a genetic encephalopathy whose clinical features mimic those of acquired in utero viral infection. AGS exhibits locus heterogeneity, with mutations identified in genes encoding the 3′→5′ exonuclease TREX1 and the three subunits of the RNASEH2 endonuclease complex. To define the molecular spectrum of AGS, we performed mutation screening in patients, from 127 pedigrees, with a clinical diagnosis of the disease. Biallelic mutations in TREX1, RNASEH2A, RNASEH2B, and RNASEH2C were observed in 31, 3, 47, and 18 families, respectively. In five families, we identified an RNASEH2A or RNASEH2B mutation on one allele only. In one child, the disease occurred because of a de novo heterozygous TREX1 mutation. In 22 families, no mutations were found. Null mutations were common in TREX1, although a specific missense mutation was observed frequently in patients from northern Europe. Almost all mutations in RNASEH2A, RNASEH2B, and RNASEH2C were missense. We identified an RNASEH2C founder mutation in 13 Pakistani families. We also collected clinical data from 123 mutation-positive patients. Two clinical presentations could be delineated: an early-onset neonatal form, highly reminiscent of congenital infection seen particularly with TREX1 mutations, and a later-onset presentation, sometimes occurring after several months of normal development and occasionally associated with remarkably preserved neurological function, most frequently due to RNASEH2B mutations. Mortality was correlated with genotype; 34.3% of patients with TREX1, RNASEH2A, and RNASEH2C mutations versus 8.0% RNASEH2B mutation-positive patients were known to have died (P = .001). Our analysis defines the phenotypic spectrum of AGS and suggests a coherent mutation-screening strategy in this heterogeneous disorder. Additionally, our data indicate that at least one further AGS-causing gene remains to be identified. © 2007 by The American Society of Human Genetics. All rights reserved.

Thermophysical properties of cotton, canola, sunflower and soybean oils as a function of temperature

Vegetable oils are used in the industry of processed food, including deep-fat frying. This work determined data on the thermophysical properties of cotton, canola, sunflower, corn, and soybean oils. Thermal conductivity, heat capacity, density, and viscosity were measured within the temperature range of 299.15-433.15 K. The data showed that the temperature influenced the thermophysical properties of the oils studied. The developed correlations could be used to predict these properties within the range of temperatures studied. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.