Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

A nonlinear observer for estimating transverse stability parameters of marine surface vessels

This paper presents a nonlinear observer for estimating parameters associated with the restoring term of a roll motion model of a marine vessel in longitudinal waves. Changes in restoring, also referred to as transverse stability, can be the result of changes in the vessel's centre of gravity due to, for example, water on deck and also in changes in the buoyancy triggered by variations in the water-plane area produced by longitudinal waves -- propagating along the fore-aft direction along the hull. These variations in the restoring can change dramatically the dynamics of the roll motion leading to dangerous resonance. Therefore, it is of interest to estimate and detect such changes.

Calibration functions for estimating soil moisture from GPR dielectric constant measurements

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is widely used for assessment of soil moisture variability in field soils. Because GPR does not measure soil water content directly, it is common practice to use calibration functions that describe its relationship with the soil dielectric properties and textural parameters. However, the large variety of models complicates the selection of the appropriate function. In this article an overview is presented of the different functions available, including volumetric models, empirical functions, effective medium theories, and frequency-specific functions. Using detailed information presented in summary tables, the choice for which calibration function to use can be guided by the soil variables available to the user, the frequency of the GPR equipment, and the desired level of detail of the output. This article can thus serve as a guide for GPR practitioners to obtain soil moisture values and to estimate soil dielectric properties.

Comparison of 3 accelerometer data reduction approaches, step counts, and 2 self-report measures for estimating physical activity in free-living adults

Background Accelerometers have become one of the most common methods of measuring physical activity (PA). Thus, validity of accelerometer data reduction approaches remains an important research area. Yet, few studies directly compare data reduction approaches and other PA measures in free-living samples. Objective To compare PA estimates provided by 3 accelerometer data reduction approaches, steps, and 2 self-reported estimates: Crouter's 2-regression model, Crouter's refined 2-regression model, the weighted cut-point method adopted in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; 2003-2004 and 2005-2006 cycles), steps, IPAQ, and 7-day PA recall. Methods A worksite sample (N = 87) completed online-surveys and wore ActiGraph GT1M accelerometers and pedometers (SW-200) during waking hours for 7 consecutive days. Daily time spent in sedentary, light, moderate, and vigorous intensity activity and percentage of participants meeting PA recommendations were calculated and compared. Results Crouter's 2-regression (161.8 +/- 52.3 minutes/day) and refined 2-regression (137.6 +/- 40.3 minutes/day) models provided significantly higher estimates of moderate and vigorous PA and proportions of those meeting PA recommendations (91% and 92%, respectively) as compared with the NHANES weighted cut-point method (39.5 +/- 20.2 minutes/day, 18%). Differences between other measures were also significant. Conclusions When comparing 3 accelerometer cut-point methods, steps, and self-report measures, estimates of PA participation vary substantially.

Mode matching pursuit for estimating dominant modes in bulk power grid

This study presents a general approach to identify dominant oscillation modes in bulk power system by using wide-area measurement system. To automatically identify the dominant modes without artificial participation, spectral characteristic of power system oscillation mode is applied to distinguish electromechanical oscillation modes which are calculated by stochastic subspace method, and a proposed mode matching pursuit is adopted to discriminate the dominant modes from the trivial modes, then stepwise-refinement scheme is developed to remove outliers of the dominant modes and the highly accurate dominant modes of identification are obtained. The method is implemented on the dominant modes of China Southern Power Grid which is one of the largest AC/DC paralleling grids in the world. Simulation data and field-measurement data are used to demonstrate high accuracy and better robustness of the dominant modes identification approach.

Outsourcing income tax returns : convenient and/or controversial

This paper investigates the outsourcing of income tax return preparation by Australian accounting firms. It identifies the extent to which firms are currently outsourcing accounting services or considering outsourcing accounting services, with a focus on personal and business income tax return preparation. The motivations and barriers for outsourcing by Australian accounting firms are also considered in this paper. Privacy, security of client data, and the competence of the outsourcing provider's staff have been identified as risks associated with outsourcing. An expectation relating to confidentiality of client data is also examined in this paper. Statistical analysis of data collected from a random sample of Australian accounting firms using a survey questionnaire provided the empirical data for the paper. The results indicate that the majority of Australian accounting firms are either currently outsourcing or considering outsourcing accounting services, and firms are outsourcing taxation preparation both onshore and offshore. The results also indicate that firms expect the volume of outsourced work to increase in the future. In contrast to the literature identifying labour arbitrage as the primary driver for organisations choosing to outsource, this study found that the main factors considered by accounting firms in the decision to outsource were to expedite delivery of services to clients and to enable the firm to focus on core competencies. Data from this study also supports the literature which ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this study.

An examination of tax deductible donations made by individual Australian taxpayers in 2011–12

This study uses information based on published ATO material and represents the extent of tax-deductible donations made and claimed by Australian individual taxpayers (i.e. not including corporate entities or trusts) to DGRs, at Item D9 Gifts or Donations, in their income tax returns for the 2011-12 income year. The total amount claimed as tax-deductible donations in 2011-12 was $2.24 billion (compared to $2.21 billion in 2010-11), representing 6.85% of all personal taxpayer deductions. Since 1978-79, the actual total tax-deductible donations claimed by Australian individual taxpayers has outpaced inflation-adjusted total tax-deductible donations, measured against the Consumer Price Index. The average tax-deductible donation claimed in 2011-12 increased to $494.25, but the absolute number and percentage of taxpayers claiming donations dropped (to 4.54 million or 35.62%). Analysis is given of individual taxpayers' donation claiming by Gender, State of Residence, Postcode, Income Band, Industry of employment, and Occupation.

Tax deductible giving in 2011-12

Executive summary of Working Paper No ACPNS 63, An Examination of Tax-Deductible Donations made by Individual Australian Taxpayers in 2011-12. The information presented is based on the amount and type of tax-deductible donations made and claimed by Australian individual taxpayers to DGRs for the period 1 July 2011 to 30 June 2012 extracted from the Australian Taxation Office's publication Taxation Statistics 2011-12.

Estimating local stream fish assemblage attributes: Sampling effort and efficiency at two spatial scales

As part of a wider study to develop an ecosystem-health monitoring program for wadeable streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia, comparisons were made regarding the accuracy, precision and relative efficiency of single-pass backpack electrofishing and multiple-pass electrofishing plus supplementary seine netting to quantify fish assemblage attributes at two spatial scales (within discrete mesohabitat units and within stream reaches consisting of multiple mesohabitat units). The results demonstrate that multiple-pass electrofishing plus seine netting provide more accurate and precise estimates of fish species richness, assemblage composition and species relative abundances in comparison to single-pass electrofishing alone, and that intensive sampling of three mesohabitat units (equivalent to a riffle-run-pool sequence) is a more efficient sampling strategy to estimate reach-scale assemblage attributes than less intensive sampling over larger spatial scales. This intensive sampling protocol was sufficiently sensitive that relatively small differences in assemblage attributes (<20%) could be detected with a high statistical power (1-β > 0.95) and that relatively few stream reaches (<4) need be sampled to accurately estimate assemblage attributes close to the true population means. The merits and potential drawbacks of the intensive sampling strategy are discussed, and it is deemed to be suitable for a range of monitoring and bioassessment objectives.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

A model for estimating grid side harmonics of matrix converter based bi-directional IPT systems

Matrix converter (MC) based bi-directional inductive power transfer (BD-IPT) systems are gaining popularity as an efficient and reliable technique with single stage grid integration as opposed to two stage grid integration of conventional grid connected BD-IPT systems. However MCs are invariably rich in harmonics and thus affect both power quality and power factor on the grid side. This paper proposes a mathematical model through which the grid side harmonics of MC based BD-IPT systems can accurately be estimated. The validity of the proposed mathematical model is verified using simulated results of a 3 kW BD-IPT system and results suggest that the MC based BD-IPT systems have a better power factor with higher power quality over conventional grid connected rectifier based systems.

Determining gas sampling timelines for estimating emissions in small chamber incubation experiments

A laboratory experiment was set up in small chambers for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and determining the most suitable time for sampling. A six-treatment experiment was conducted, including a one week pre-incubation and a week for incubation. Timelines for sampling were 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours after closing the lid of the incubation chambers. Variation in greenhouse gas fluxes was high due to the time of sampling. The rates of gas emissions increased in first three hours and decreased afterward. The rates of greenhouse gas emissions at 3 hours after closing lids was close to the mean for the 24-h period.

The game of clones and the Australia tax : divergent views about copyright business models and the willingness of Australian consumers to infringe

It is often said that Australia is a world leader in rates of copyright infringement for entertainment goods. In 2012, the hit television show, Game of Thrones, was the most downloaded television show over bitorrent, and estimates suggest that Australians accounted for a plurality of nearly 10% of the 3-4 million downloads each week. The season finale of 2013 was downloaded over a million times within 24 hours of its release, and again Australians were the largest block of illicit downloaders over BitTorrent, despite our relatively small population. This trend has led the former US Ambassador to Australia to implore Australians to stop 'stealing' digital content, and rightsholders to push for increasing sanctions on copyright infringers. The Australian Government is looking to respond by requiring Internet Service Providers to issue warnings and potentially punish consumers who are alleged by industry groups to have infringed copyright. This is the logical next step in deterring infringement, given that the operators of infringing networks (like The Pirate Bay, for example) are out of regulatory reach. This steady ratcheting up of the strength of copyright, however, comes at a significant cost to user privacy and autonomy, and while the decentralisation of enforcement reduces costs, it also reduces the due process safeguards provided by the judicial process. This article presents qualitative evidence that substantiates a common intuition: one of the major reasons that Australians seek out illicit downloads of content like Game of Thrones in such numbers is that it is more difficult to access legitimately in Australia. The geographically segmented way in which copyright is exploited at an international level has given rise to a ‘tyranny of digital distance’, where Australians have less access to copyright goods than consumers in other countries. Compared to consumers in the US and the EU, Australians pay more for digital goods, have less choice in distribution channels, are exposed to substantial delays in access, and are sometimes denied access completely. In this article we focus our analysis on premium film and television offerings, like Game of Thrones, and through semi-structured interviews, explore how choices in distribution impact on the willingness of Australian consumers to seek out infringing copies of copyright material. Game of Thrones provides an excellent case study through which to frame this analysis: it is both one of the least legally accessible television offerings and one of the most downloaded through filesharing networks of recent times. Our analysis shows that at the same time as rightsholder groups, particularly in the film and television industries, are lobbying for stronger laws to counter illicit distribution, the business practices of their member organisations are counter-productively increasing incentives for consumers to infringe. The lack of accessibility and high prices of copyright goods in Australia leads to substantial economic waste. The unmet consumer demand means that Australian consumers are harmed by lower access to information and entertainment goods than consumers in other jurisdictions. The higher rates of infringement that fulfils some of this unmet demand increases enforcement costs for copyright owners and imposes burdens either on our judicial system or on private entities – like ISPs – who may be tasked with enforcing the rights of third parties. Most worryingly, the lack of convenient and cheap legitimate digital distribution channels risks undermining public support for copyright law. Our research shows that consumers blame rightsholders for failing to meet market demand, and this encourages a social norm that infringing copyright, while illegal, is not morally wrongful. The implications are as simple as they are profound: Australia should not take steps to increase the strength of copyright law at this time. The interests of the public and those of rightsholders align better when there is effective competition in distribution channels and consumers can legitimately get access to content. While foreign rightsholders are seeking enhanced protection for their interests, increasing enforcement is likely to increase their ability to engage in lucrative geographical price-discrimination, particularly for premium content. This is only likely to increase the degree to which Australian consumers feel that their interests are not being met and, consequently, to further undermine the legitimacy of copyright law. If consumers are to respect copyright law, increasing sanctions for infringement without enhancing access and competition in legitimate distribution channels could be dangerously counter-productive. We suggest that rightsholders’ best strategy for addressing infringement in Australia at this time is to ensure that Australians can access copyright goods in a timely, affordable, convenient, and fair lawful manner.

Effect of the increase in "alcopops" tax on alcohol-related harms in young people : a controlled interrupted time series

Objective: To measure alcohol-related harms to the health of young people presenting to emergency departments (EDs) of Gold Coast public hospitals before and after the increase in the federal government "alcopops" tax in 2008. Design, setting and participants: Interrupted time series analysis over 5 years (28 April 2005 to 27 April 2010) of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with presentations of selected control groups. Main outcome measures: Proportion of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with (i) 30-49-year-olds with alcohol-related harms, (ii)15-29-year-olds with asthma or appendicitis, and (iii) 15-29-yearolds with any non-alcohol and non-injury related ED presentation. Results: Over a third of 15-29-year-olds presented to ED with alcohol-related conditions, as opposed to around a quarter for all other age groups. There was no significant decrease in alcohol-related ED presentations of 15-29-year-olds compared with any of the control groups after the increase in the tax. We found similar results for males and females, narrow and broad definitions of alcoholrelated harms, under-19s, and visitors to and residents of the Gold Coast. Conclusions: The increase in the tax on al copops was not associated with any reduction in alcohol-related harms in this population in a unique tourist and holiday region. A more comprehensive approach to reducing alcohol harms in young people is needed.