Mesonic fluctuations in a nonlocal Nambu–Jona-Lasinio model

The effects of meson fluctuations are studied in a nonlocal generalization of the Nambu–Jona-Lasinio model, by including terms of next-to-leading order (NLO) in 1/Nc. In the model with only scalar and pseudoscalar interactions NLO contributions to the quark condensate are found to be very small. This is a result of cancellation between virtual mesons and Fock terms, which occurs for the parameter sets of most interest. In the quark self-energy, similar cancellations arise in the tadpole diagrams, although not in other NLO pieces which contribute at the 25% level. The effects on pion properties are also found to be small. NLO contributions from real pi-pi intermediate states increase the sigma meson mass by 30%. In an extended model with vector and axial interactions, there are indications that NLO effects could be larger.

The climatology of the middle atmosphere in a vertically extended version of the Met Office's climate model. Part I: mean state

The climatology of a stratosphere-resolving version of the Met Office’s climate model is studied and validated against ECMWF reanalysis data. Ensemble integrations are carried out at two different horizontal resolutions. Along with a realistic climatology and annual cycle in zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, several physical effects are noted in the model. The time of final warming of the winter polar vortex is found to descend monotonically in the Southern Hemisphere, as would be expected for purely radiative forcing. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, the time of final warming is driven largely by dynamical effects in the lower stratosphere and radiative effects in the upper stratosphere, leading to the earliest transition to westward winds being seen in the midstratosphere. A realistic annual cycle in stratospheric water vapor concentrations—the tropical “tape recorder”—is captured. Tropical variability in the zonal mean zonal wind is found to be in better agreement with the reanalysis for the model run at higher horizontal resolution because the simulated quasi-biennial oscillation has a more realistic amplitude. Unexpectedly, variability in the extratropics becomes less realistic under increased resolution because of reduced resolved wave drag and increased orographic gravity wave drag. Overall, the differences in climatology between the simulations at high and moderate horizontal resolution are found to be small.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

On the evaluation of temperature trends in the tropical troposphere

A series of model experiments with the coupled Max-Planck-Institute ECHAM5/OM climate model have been investigated and compared with microwave measurements from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and re-analysis data for the period 1979–2008. The evaluation is carried out by computing the Temperature in the Lower Troposphere (TLT) and Temperature in the Middle Troposphere (TMT) using the MSU weights from both University of Alabama (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and restricting the study to primarily the tropical oceans. When forced by analysed sea surface temperature the model reproduces accurately the time-evolution of the mean outgoing tropospheric microwave radiation especially over tropical oceans but with a minor bias towards higher temperatures in the upper troposphere. The latest reanalyses data from the 25 year Japanese re-analysis (JRA25) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis are in very close agreement with the time-evolution of the MSU data with a correlation of 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. The re-analysis trends are similar to the trends obtained from UAH but smaller than the trends from RSS. Comparison of TLT, computed from observations from UAH and RSS, with Sea Surface Temperature indicates that RSS has a warm bias after 1993. In order to identify the significance of the tropospheric linear temperature trends we determined the natural variability of 30-year trends from a 500 year control integration of the coupled ECHAM5 model. The model exhibits natural unforced variations of the 30 year tropospheric trend that vary within ±0.2 K/decade for the tropical oceans. This general result is supported by similar results from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model. Present MSU observations from UAH for the period 1979–2008 are well within this range but RSS is close to the upper positive limit of this variability. We have also compared the trend of the vertical lapse rate over the tropical oceans assuming that the difference between TLT and TMT is an approximate measure of the lapse rate. The TLT–TMT trend is larger in both the measurements and in the JRA25 than in the model runs by 0.04–0.06 K/decade. Furthermore, a calculation of all 30 year TLT–TMT trends of the unforced 500-year integration vary between ±0.03 K/decade suggesting that the models have a minor systematic warm bias in the upper troposphere.

Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July

Satellite data are used to quantify and examine the bias in the outgoing long-wave (LW) radiation over North Africa during May–July simulated by a range of climate models and the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Simulations from an ensemble-mean of multiple climate models overestimate outgoing clear-sky long-wave radiation (LWc) by more than 20 W m−2 relative to observations from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for May–July 2000 over parts of the west Sahara, and by 9 W m−2 for the North Africa region (20°W–30°E, 10–40°N). Experiments with the atmosphere-only version of the High-resolution Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HiGEM), suggest that including mineral dust radiative effects removes this bias. Furthermore, only by reducing surface temperature and emissivity by unrealistic amounts is it possible to explain the magnitude of the bias. Comparing simulations from the Met Office NWP model with satellite observations from Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instruments suggests that the model overestimates the LW by 20–40 W m−2 during North African summer. The bias declines over the period 2003–2008, although this is likely to relate to improvements in the model and inhomogeneity in the satellite time series. The bias in LWc coincides with high aerosol dust loading estimated from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), including during the GERBILS field campaign (18–28 June 2007) where model overestimates in LWc greater than 20 W m−2 and OMI-estimated aerosol optical depth (AOD) greater than 0.8 are concurrent around 20°N, 0–20°W. A model-minus-GERB LW bias of around 30 W m−2 coincides with high AOD during the period 18–21 June 2007, although differences in cloud cover also impact the model–GERB differences. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2010

Periodic time series modeling of environmental proxy records with guaranteed positive growth rate estimation

Identifying a periodic time-series model from environmental records, without imposing the positivity of the growth rate, does not necessarily respect the time order of the data observations. Consequently, subsequent observations, sampled in the environmental archive, can be inversed on the time axis, resulting in a non-physical signal model. In this paper an optimization technique with linear constraints on the signal model parameters is proposed that prevents time inversions. The activation conditions for this constrained optimization are based upon the physical constraint of the growth rate, namely, that it cannot take values smaller than zero. The actual constraints are defined for polynomials and first-order splines as basis functions for the nonlinear contribution in the distance-time relationship. The method is compared with an existing method that eliminates the time inversions, and its noise sensitivity is tested by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the usefulness of the method is demonstrated on the measurements of the vessel density, in a mangrove tree, Rhizophora mucronata, and the measurement of Mg/Ca ratios, in a bivalve, Mytilus trossulus.

Comparing the UK Met Office climate prediction system DePreSys with idealized predictability in the HadCM3 model

The initial condition effect on climate prediction skill over a 2-year hindcast time-scale has been assessed from ensemble HadCM3 climate model runs using anomaly initialization over the period 1990–2001, and making comparisons with runs without initialization (equivalent to climatological conditions), and to anomaly persistence. It is shown that the assimilation improves the prediction skill in the first year globally, and in a number of limited areas out into the second year. Skill in hindcasting surface air temperature anomalies is most marked over ocean areas, and is coincident with areas of high sea surface temperature and ocean heat content skill. Skill improvement over land areas is much more limited but is still detectable in some cases. We found little difference in the skill of hindcasts using three different sets of ocean initial conditions, and we obtained the best results by combining these to form a grand ensemble hindcast set. Results are also compared with the idealized predictability studies of Collins (Clim. Dynam. 2002; 19: 671–692), which used the same model. The maximum lead time for which initialization gives enhanced skill over runs without initialization varies in different regions but is very similar to lead times found in the idealized studies, therefore strongly supporting the process representation in the model as well as its use for operational predictions. The limited 12-year period of the study, however, means that the regional details of model skill should probably be further assessed under a wider range of observational conditions.

Influence of curd cutting programme and stirring speed on the prediction of syneresis indices in cheese-making using NIR light backscatter

An NIR reflectance sensor, with a large field of view and a fibre-optic connection to a spectrometer for measuring light backscatter at 980 nm, was used to monitor the syneresis process online during cheese-making with the goal of predicting syneresis indices (curd moisture content, yield of whey and fat losses to whey) over a range of curd cutting programmes and stirring speeds. A series of trials were carried out in an 11 L cheese vat using recombined whole milk. A factorial experimental design consisting of three curd stirring speeds and three cutting programmes, was undertaken. Milk was coagulated under constant conditions and the casein gel was cut when the elastic modulus reached 35 Pa. Among the syneresis indices investigated, the most accurate and most parsimonious multivariate model developed was for predicting yield of whey involving three terms, namely light backscatter, milk fat content and cutting intensity (R2 = 0.83, SEy = 6.13 g/100 g), while the best simple model also predicted this syneresis index using the light backscatter alone (R2 = 0.80, SEy = 6.53 g/100 g). In this model the main predictor was the light backscatter response from the NIR light back scatter sensor. The sensor also predicted curd moisture with a similar accuracy.

Survival of Lactobacillus plantarum in model solutions and fruit juices

The aim of the work was to study the survival of Lactobacillus plantarum NCIMB 8826 in model solutions and develop a mathematical model describing its dependence on pH, citric acid and ascorbic acid. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was developed studying each of the three factors at five levels within the following ranges, i.e., pH (3.0-4.2), citric acid (6-40 g/L), and ascorbic acid (100-1000 mg/L). In total, 17 experimental runs were carried out. The initial cell concentration in the model solutions was approximately 1 × 10(8)CFU/mL; the solutions were stored at 4°C for 6 weeks. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the stepwise regression demonstrated that a second order polynomial model fits well the data. The results demonstrated that high pH and citric acid concentration enhanced cell survival; one the other hand, ascorbic acid did not have an effect. Cell survival during storage was also investigated in various types of juices, including orange, grapefruit, blackcurrant, pineapple, pomegranate, cranberry and lemon juice. The model predicted well the cell survival in orange, blackcurrant and pineapple, however it failed to predict cell survival in grapefruit and pomegranate, indicating the influence of additional factors, besides pH and citric acid, on cell survival. Very good cell survival (less than 0.4 log decrease) was observed after 6 weeks of storage in orange, blackcurrant and pineapple juice, all of which had a pH of about 3.8. Cell survival in cranberry and pomegranate decreased very quickly, whereas in the case of lemon juice, the cell concentration decreased approximately 1.1 logs after 6 weeks of storage, albeit the fact that lemon juice had the lowest pH (pH~2.5) among all the juices tested. Taking into account the results from the compositional analysis of the juices and the model, it was deduced that in certain juices, other compounds seemed to protect the cells during storage; these were likely to be proteins and dietary fibre In contrast, in certain juices, such as pomegranate, cell survival was much lower than expected; this could be due to the presence of antimicrobial compounds, such as phenolic compounds.

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.

Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

The variant rpoS allele of S-enteritidis strain 27655R does not affect virulence in a chick model nor constitutive curliation but does generate a cold-sensitive phenotype

Adherence of pathogenic Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. to host cells is in part mediated by curli fimbriae which, along with other virulence determinants, are positively regulated by RpoS. Interested in the role and regulation of curli (SEF17) fimbriae of Salmonella enteritidis in poultry infection, we tested the virulence of naturally occurring S. enteritidis PT4 strains 27655R and 27655S which displayed constitutive and null expression of curli (SEF17) fimbriae, respectively, in a chick invasion assay and analysed their rpoS alleles. Both strains were shown to be equally invasive and as invasive as a wild-type phage type 4 strain and an isogenic derivative defective for the elaboration of curli. We showed that the rpoS allele of 27655S was intact even though this strain was non-curliated and we confirmed that a S. enteritidis rpoS::str(r) null mutant was unable to express curli, as anticipated. Strain 27655R, constitutively curliated, possessed a frameshift mutation at position 697 of the rpoS coding sequence which resulted in a truncated product and remained curliated even when transduced to rpoS::str(r). Additionally, rpoS mutants are known to be cold-sensitive, a phenotype confirmed for strain 27655R. Collectively, these data indicated that curliation was not a significant factor for pathogenesis of S. enteritidis in this model and that curliation of strains 27655R and 27655S was independent of RpoS. Significantly, strain 27655R possessed a defective rpoS allele and remained virulent. Here was evidence that supported the concept that different naturally occurring rpoS alleles may generate varying virulence phenotypic traits. (C) 1998 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: the application of process-based diagnostics

In Part I of this study it was shown that moving from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent organized entrainment rate in the formulation for deep convection was responsible for significant advances in the simulation of the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the ECMWF model. However, the application of traditional MJO diagnostics were not adequate to understand why changing the control on convection had such a pronounced impact on the representation of the MJO. In this study a set of process-based diagnostics are applied to the hindcast experiments described in Part I to identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the advances in MJO simulation. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmental moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation – moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up, which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the t ransition t o d eep convection. R esults from this study suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the convective heating and the large-scale wave forcing associated with the MJO.

Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the extratropical winter stratosphere in an atmospheric general circulation model and in reanalysis data

The interannual variability of the stratospheric polar vortex during winter in both hemispheres is observed to correlate strongly with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds. It follows that the lack of a spontaneously generated QBO in most atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) adversely affects the nature of polar variability in such models. This study examines QBO–vortex coupling in an AGCM in which a QBO is spontaneously induced by resolved and parameterized waves. The QBO–vortex coupling in the AGCM compares favorably to that seen in reanalysis data [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)], provided that careful attention is given to the definition of QBO phase. A phase angle representation of the QBO is employed that is based on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of equatorial zonal wind vertical profiles. This yields a QBO phase that serves as a proxy for the vertical structure of equatorial winds over the whole depth of the stratosphere and thus provides a means of subsampling the data to select QBO phases with similar vertical profiles of equatorial zonal wind. Using this subsampling, it is found that the QBO phase that induces the strongest polar vortex response in early winter differs from that which induces the strongest late-winter vortex response. This is true in both hemispheres and for both the AGCM and ERA-40. It follows that the strength and timing of QBO influence on the vortex may be affected by the partial seasonal synchronization of QBO phase transitions that occurs both in observations and in the model. This provides a mechanism by which changes in the strength of QBO–vortex correlations may exhibit variability on decadal time scales. In the model, such behavior occurs in the absence of external forcings or interannual variations in sea surface temperatures.