Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

Interactions of ingested food, beverage, and tobacco components involving human cytochrome P4501A2, 2A6, 2E1, and 3A4 enzymes

Human cytochrome P450 (P450) enzymes are involved in the oxidation of natural products found in foods, beverages, and tobacco products and their catalytic activities can also be modulated by components of the materials. The microsomal activation of aflatoxin B1 to the exo-3,9-epoxide is stimulated by flavone and 7,8-benzoflavone, and attenuated by the flavonoid naringenin, a major component of grapefruit. P4502E1 has been demonstrated to play a potentially major role in the activation of a number of very low-molecular weight cancer suspects, including ethyl carbamate (urethan), which is present in alcoholic beverages and particularly stone brandies. The enzyme (P4502E1) is also known to be inducible by ethanol. Tobacco contains a large number of potential carcinogens. In human liver microsomes a significant role for P4501A2 can be demonstrated in the activation of cigarette smoke condensate. Some of the genotoxicity may be due to arylamines. P4501A2 is also inhibited by components of crude cigarette smoke condensate. The tobacco-specific nitrosamines are activated by a number of P450 enzymes. Of those known to be present in human liver, P4501A2, 2A6, and 2E1 can activate these nitrosamines to genotoxic products.

Characterization of the tail-specific protease (Tsp) from Legionella

Bacterial tail-specific proteases (Tsps) have been attributed a wide variety of functions including intracellular virulence, cell wall morphology, proteolytic signal cascades and stress response. This study tested the hypothesis that Tsp has a key function for the transmissive form of Legionella pneumophila. A tsp mutant was generated in Legionella pneumophila 130b and the characteristics of this strain and the isogenic wild-type were examined using a range of growth and proteomic analyses. Recombinant Tsp protein was also produced and analyzed. The L. pneumophila tsp mutant showed no defect in growth on rich media or during thermo-osmotic stress conditions. In addition, no defects in cellular morphology were observed when the cells were examined using transmission electron microscopy. Purified recombinant Tsp was found to be an active protease with a narrow substrate range. Proteome analysis using iTRAQ (5% coverage of the proteome) found that, of those proteins detected, only 5 had different levels in the tsp mutant compared to the wild type. ACP (Acyl Carrier Protein), which has a key role for Legionella differentiation to the infectious form, was reduced in the tsp mutant; however, tsp(-) was able to infect and replicate inside macrophages to the same extent as the wild type. Combined, these data demonstrate that Tsp is a protease but is not essential for Legionella growth or cell infection. Thus, Tsp may have functional redundancy in Legionella.

The ADAMTS1 protease gene is required for mammary tumor growth and metastasis

A disintegrin and metalloprotease with thrombospondin motifs protein 1 (ADAMTS1) is a protease commonly up-regulated in metastatic carcinoma. Its overexpression in cancer cells promotes experimental metastasis, but whether ADAMTS1 is essential for metastatic progression is unknown. To address this question, we investigated mammary cancer progression and spontaneous metastasis in the MMTV-PyMT mouse mammary tumor model in Adamts1 knockout mice. Adamts1−/−/PyMT mice displayed significantly reduced mammary tumor and lung metastatic tumor burden and increased survival, compared with their wild-type and heterozygous littermates. Histological examination revealed an increased proportion of tumors with ductal carcinoma in situ and a lower proportion of high-grade invasive tumors in Adamts1−/−/PyMT mice, compared with Adamts1+/+/PyMT mice. Increased apoptosis with unaltered proliferation and vascular density in the Adamts1−/−/PyMT tumors suggested that reduced cell survival accounts for the lower tumor burden in ADAMTS1-deficient mice. Furthermore, Adamts1−/− tumor stroma had significantly lesser amounts of proteolytically cleaved versican and increased numbers of CD45+ leukocytes. Characterization of immune cell gene expression indicated that cytotoxic cell activation was increased in Adamts1−/− tumors, compared with Adamts1+/+ tumors. This finding is supported by significantly elevated IL-12+ cell numbers in Adamts1−/− tumors. Thus, in vivo ADAMTS1 may promote mammary tumor growth and progression to metastasis in the PyMT model and is a potential therapeutic target to prevent metastatic breast cancer.

miRNAs in head and neck cancer revisited

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth most common cause of cancer mortality in the world and the 5th most commonly occurring cancer. Tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption and human papilloma virus (HPV) infections have been associated with the occurrence of HNSCC. Despite advances that have been made in HNSCC treatment, smoking-associated HNSCC patients still exhibit a poor 5 year survival rate (30-50 %) and a concomitant poor quality of life. The major clinical challenge to date lies in the early detection of dysplastic lesions,which can progress to malignancy. In addition, there are currently no tools available to monitor HNSCC patients for early stages of local recurrences or distant metastases. In the recent past, micro-RNAs (miRNA) have been assessed for their role in cancer initiation and progression, including HNSCC. It is now well-established that deregulation of these single stranded, small non-coding, 19-25 nt RNAs can e.g. enhance the expression of oncogenes or subdue the expression of tumor suppressor genes. The aims of this review are three-fold: first to retrieve from the literature miRNAs that have specifically been associated with HNSCC, second to group these miRNAs into those regulating tumor initiation, progression and metastasis, and third to discern miRNAs related to smoking-associated HNSCC versus HPV-associated HNSCC development. This review gives an overview on the miRNAs regulating the development of head and neck cancers. The ultimate establishment of miRNA expression profiles that are HNSCC specific, and miRNAs that orchestrate altered gene and protein expression levels in HNSCC, could pave the way for a better understanding of the mechanism underlying its pathogenesis and the development of novel, targeted therapies.

Medical and nursing students perceived knowledge, attitudes, and practices concerning human immunodeficiency virus

Objective. To assess medical and nursing students’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Fiji. Methods. A cross-sectional study of 275 medical and 252 nursing students that participated in a questionnaire survey on HIV KAP. Data was analysed according to their gender, program of study, and academic year. Results. The mean HIV knowledge (HK) and attitude scores were 16.0 and 41.3, respectively. Mean HK score was significantly higher in males compared to females. Significant positive correlations were found between HK and academic year for medical () and nursing () students and between HK and attitude scores (). The majority of students indicated fear in contracting HIV through clinical practice and felt that health care workers have the right to know a patients HIV status for their own safety. The majority would wear gloves to touch a patient if suspected of HIV. Conclusions. The study found a high level of HIV knowledge and positive attitude towards HIV patients. However, respondents also displayed negative attitudes and unacceptable practices probably due to fear. Training institutions need to ensure that students gain accurate knowledge on HIV especially on transmission routes to allay the fear of caring for HIV-infected patients.

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.

Tobacco use in South Africans during 1998: The first demographic and health survey

Objective To determine smoking patterns in South Africa, and to identify groups requiring culturally appropriate smoking cessation programmes. Methods A random sample of 13 826 people (415 years), was interviewed to identify tobacco use patterns and respiratory symptoms. Peak expiratory flow rates were measured. Multinomial regression analyses identified sociodemographic factors related to tobacco use, and the latter’s association with respiratory conditions. Results In 1998, 24.6% adults (44.2% of males and 11.0% of females) smoked regularly. Coloured women had a higher rate (39%) than African women (5.4%). About 24% of the regular smokers had attempted to quit, with only 9.9% succeeding. African women (13.2%) used smokeless tobacco more frequently than others. Of the nonsmokers 28% and 19% were exposed to environmental tobacco smoke in their homes and workplaces, respectively. The regression analysis showed that the demographic characteristics of light smokers (1–14 tobacco equivalents per day) and heavy smokers (>=15 tobacco equivalents per day) differed. Light smoking occurred significantly more frequently in the poorest, least educated and urban people. The relative risk for light smoking was 18 in Coloured women compared with African women. Heavy smoking occurred most frequently in the highest educated group. A dose–response was observed between the amount smoked and the presence of respiratory diseases. Conclusions Smoking in South Africa is decreasing and should continue with the recently passed tobacco control legislation. Culturally appropriate tobacco cessation programmes for the identified target groups need to be developed.