Citizens and the future of multilateralism in a polycentric world at 2030: the perspectives of emerging countries for the trading system: the impasse of WTO, the trends of mega agreements, the logic of value chains and the advent of consumers concerns on international trade

A new paradigm is modeling the World: evolutionary innovations in all fronts, new information technologies, huge mobility of capital, use of risky financial tools, globalization of production, new emerging powers and the impact of consumer concerns on governmental policies. These phenomena are shaping the World and forcing the advent of a new World Order in the Multilateral Monetary, Financial, and Trading System. The effects of this new paradigm are also transforming global governance. The political and economic orders established after the World War and centered on the multilateral model of UN, IMF, World Bank, and the GATT, leaded by the developed countries, are facing significant challenges. The rise of China and emerging countries shifted the old model to a polycentric World, where the governance of these organizations are threatened by emerging countries demanding a bigger participation in the role and decision boards of these international bodies. As a consequence, multilateralism is being confronted by polycentrism. Negotiations for a more representative voting process and the pressure for new rules to cope with the new demands are paralyzing important decisions. This scenario is affecting seriously not only the Monetary and Financial Systems but also the Multilateral Trading System. International trade is facing some significant challenges: a serious deadlock to conclude the last round of the multilateral negotiation at the WTO, the fragmentation of trade rules by the multiplication of preferential and mega agreements, the arrival of a new model of global production and trade leaded by global value chains that is threatening the old trade order, and the imposition of new sets of regulations by private bodies commanded by transnationals to support global value chains and non-governmental organizations to reflect the concerns of consumers in the North based on their precautionary attitude about sustainability of products made in the World. The lack of any multilateral order in this new regulation is creating a big cacophony of rules and developing a new regulatory war of the Global North against the Global South. The objective of this paper is to explore how these challenges are affecting the Tradinge System and how it can evolve to manage these new trends.

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

tCAD: a 3D modeling application on a depth enhanced tabletop computer

Tabletop computers featuring multi-touch input and object tracking are a common platform for research on Tangible User Interfaces (also known as Tangible Interaction). However, such systems are confined to sensing activity on the tabletop surface, disregarding the rich and relatively unexplored interaction canvas above the tabletop. This dissertation contributes with tCAD, a 3D modeling tool combining fiducial marker tracking, finger tracking and depth sensing in a single system. This dissertation presents the technical details of how these features were integrated, attesting to its viability through the design, development and early evaluation of the tCAD application. A key aspect of this work is a description of the interaction techniques enabled by merging tracked objects with direct user input on and above a table surface.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling upper eyelid kinematics during spontaneous and reflex blinks

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

GPS/VRS positioning using atmospheric modeling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling and Experimental Aspects of Self-healing Bolted Joint through Shape Memory Alloy Actuators

Bolted joints are a form of mechanical coupling largely used in machinery due to their reliability and low cost. Failure of bolted joints can lead to catastrophic events, such as leaking, train derailments, aircraft crashes, etc. Most of these failures occur due to the reduction of the pre-load, induced by mechanical vibration or human errors in the assembly or maintenance process. This article investigates the application of shape memory alloy (SMA) washers as an actuator to increase the pre-load on loosened bolted joints. The application of SMA washer follows a structural health monitoring procedure to identify a damage (reduction in pre-load) occurrence. In this article, a thermo-mechanical model is presented to predict the final pre-load achieved using this kind of actuator, based on the heat input and SMA washer dimension. This model extends and improves on the previous model of Ghorashi and Inman [2004, "Shape Memory Alloy in Tension and Compression and its Application as Clamping Force Actuator in a Bolted Joint: Part 2 - Modeling," J. Intell. Mater. Syst. Struct., 15:589-600], by eliminating the pre-load term related to nut turning making the system more practical. This complete model is a powerful but complex tool to be used by designers. A novel modeling approach for self-healing bolted joints based on curve fitting of experimental data is presented. The article concludes with an experimental application that leads to a change in joint assembly to increase the system reliability, by removing the ceramic washer component. Further research topics are also suggested.

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mathematical modeling and control of population systems: Applications in biological pest control

The aim of this paper is to apply methods from optimal control theory, and from the theory of dynamic systems to the mathematical modeling of biological pest control. The linear feedback control problem for nonlinear systems has been formulated in order to obtain the optimal pest control strategy only through the introduction of natural enemies. Asymptotic stability of the closed-loop nonlinear Kolmogorov system is guaranteed by means of a Lyapunov function which can clearly be seen to be the solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, thus guaranteeing both stability and optimality. Numerical simulations for three possible scenarios of biological pest control based on the Lotka-Volterra models are provided to show the effectiveness of this method. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A dissolution and reaction modeling for hydrolysis of TEOS in heterogeneous TEOS-water-HCl mixtures under ultrasound stimulation

A simplified dissolution and reaction modeling was employed to study the hydrolysis of heterogeneous tetraethoxysilane (TEOS)-water-HCl mixtures under ultrasound stimulation. The nominal pH was changed from 0.8 to 2.0. The acid specific hydrolysis rate constant was determined as k = 6.1 mol(-1) 1 min(-1) [H+](-1) at 39 degreesC, in good agreement with the literature. Along the heterogeneous step of the reaction, the ultrasound maintains an additional quantity of water under a virtual state of dissolution besides the water dissolved due to the homogenizing effect of the alcohol produced in the reaction. The forced virtually dissolved water is probably represented by water at the TEOS-water interface during the heterogeneous step of the reaction. The mean radius of the heterogeneity represented by water dispersed in TEOS phase, while hydrolysis has not started yet, was evaluated as about 290 A. The HCl concentration accordingly increases the hydrolysis rate constant but its fundamental role on the immiscibility gap of the TEOS-water-ethanol system has not been unequivocally established. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

A CASE tool for the modeling of methods and information systems

MODSI is a multi-models tool for information systems modeling. A modeling process in MODSI can be driven according to three different approaches: informal, semi-formal and formal. The MODSI tool is therefore based on the linked usage of these three modeling approaches. It can be employed at two different levels: the meta-modeling of a method and the modeling of an information system.In this paper we start presenting different types of modeling by making an analysis of their particular features. Then, we introduce the meta-model defined in our tool, as well as the tool functional architecture. Finally, we describe and illustrate the various usage levels of this tool.

A new three-phase transformer modeling for three-phase harmonic analysis in distribution systems

This work presents a new three-phase transformer modeling suitable for simulations in Pspice environment, which until now represents the electrical characteristics of a real transformer. It is proposed the model comparison to a three-phase transformer modeling present in EMTP - ATP program, which includes the electrical and magnetic characteristics. In addition, a set including non-linear loads and a real three-phase transformer was prepared in order to compare and validate the results of this new proposed model. The three-phase Pspice transformer modeling, different from the conventional one using inductance coupling, is remarkable for its simplicity and ease in simulation process, since it uses available voltage and current sources present in Pspice program, enabling simulations of three-phase network system including the most common configuration, three wires in the primary side and four wires in the secondary side (three-phases and neutral). Finally, the proposed modeling becomes a powerful tool for three-phase network simulations due to its simplicity and accuracy, able to simulate and analyze harmonic flow in three-phase systems under balanced and unbalanced conditions.

Object oriented modeling of piston engines

This work reports a conception phase of a piston engine global model. The model objective is forecast the motor performance (power, torque and specific consumption as a function of rotation and environmental conditions). Global model or Zero-dimensional is based on flux balance through each engine component. The resulting differential equations represents a compressive unsteady flow, in which, all dimensional variables are areas or volumes. A review is presented first. The ordinary differential equation system is presented and a Runge-Kutta method is proposed to solve it numerically. The model includes the momentum conservation equation to link the gas dynamics with the engine moving parts rigid body mechanics. As an oriented to objects model the documentation follows the UML standard. A discussion about the class diagrams is presented, relating the classes with physical model related. The OOP approach allows evolution from simple models to most complex ones without total code rewrite. Copyright © 2001 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Usage of enterprise modeling processes and information systems design to forecast demand

Managing the great complexity of enterprise system, due to entities numbers, decision and process varieties involved to be controlled results in a very hard task because deals with the integration of its operations and its information systems. Moreover, the enterprises find themselves in a constant changing process, reacting in a dynamic and competitive environment where their business processes are constantly altered. The transformation of business processes into models allows to analyze and redefine them. Through computing tools usage it is possible to minimize the cost and risks of an enterprise integration design. This article claims for the necessity of modeling the processes in order to define more precisely the enterprise business requirements and the adequate usage of the modeling methodologies. Following these patterns, the paper concerns the process modeling relative to the domain of demand forecasting as a practical example. The domain of demand forecasting was built based on a theoretical review. The resulting models considered as reference model are transformed into information systems and have the aim to introduce a generic solution and be start point of better practical forecasting. The proposal is to promote the adequacy of the information system to the real needs of an enterprise in order to enable it to obtain and accompany better results, minimizing design errors, time, money and effort. The enterprise processes modeling are obtained with the usage of CIMOSA language and to the support information system it was used the UML language.