Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

The expression of ADAM-9 and -10 in prostate cancer and their regulation by dihydrotestosterone, insulin-like growth Factor-1 and epidermal growth factor

Prostrate Cancer(PCa)is the most common cause of cancer death amongst Western males. PCa occurs in two distinct stages. In its early stage, growth and development is dependent primarily on male sex hormones (androgens) such as testosterone, although other growth factors have roles maintaining PCa cell survival in this stage. In the later stage of PCa development, growth and.maintenance is independent of androgen stimulation and growth factors including Insulin-like Growth Factor -1 (IGf.:·l) and Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF) are thought to have more crucial roles in cell survival and PCa progression. PCa, in its late stages, is highly aggressive and metastatic, that is, tumorigenic cells migrate from the primary site of the body (prostate) and travel via the systemic and lymphatic circulation, residing and colonising in the bone, lymph node, lung, and in more rare cases, the brain. Metastasis involves both cell migration and tissue degradation activities. The degradation of the extracellular matrix (ECM), the tissue surrounding the organ, is mediated in part by members of a family of 26 proteins called the Matrix Metalloproteases (MMPs), whilst ceil adhesion molecules, of which proteins known as Integrins are included, mediate ce11 migration. A family of proteins known as the ADAMs (A Disintegrin . And Metalloprotease domain) were a recently characterised family at the commencement of this study and now comprise 34 members. Because of their dual nature, possessing an active metaiioprotease domain, homologous to that of the MMPs, and an integrin-binding domain capable of regulating cell-cell and cell-ECM contacts, it was thought likely that members of the ADAMs family may have implications for the progression of aggressive cancers such as those ofthe prostate. This study focussed on two particular ADAMs -9 and -10. ADAM-9 has an active metalloprotease domain, which has been shown to degrade constituents of the ECM, including fibronectin, in vitro. It also has an integrin-binding capacity through association with key integrins involved in PCa progression, such as a6~1. ADAM-10 has no such integrin binding activities, but its bovine orthologue, MADM, is able to degrade coHagen type IV, a major component of basement membranes. It is likely human ADAM-10 has the same activity. It is also known to cleave Ll -a protein involved in cell anchorage activities - and collagen type XVII - which is a principal component of the hemidesmosomes of cellular tight junctions. The cleavage of these proteins enables the cell to be released from the surrounding environment and commence migratory activities, as required in metastasis. Previous studies in this laboratory showed the mRNA expression of the five ADAMs -9,- 10, -11, -15 and -17 in PCa cell lines, characteristic of androgen-dependent and androgen independent disease. These studies were furthered by the characterisation of AD AM-9, -10 and -17 mRNA regulation by Dihydrotestosterone (DHT) in the androgen-responsive cell line (LNCaP). ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA levels were elevated in response to DHT stimulation. Further to these observations, the expression of ADAM-9 and -10 was shown in primary prostate biopsies from patients with PCa. ADAM-1 0 was expressed in the cytoplasm and on the ceH membrane in epithelial and basal cells ofbenign prostate glands, but in high-grade PCa glands, ADAM-I 0 expression was localised to the nucleus and its expression levels appeared to be elevated when compared to low-grade PCa glands. These studies provided a strong background for the hypothesis that ADAM-9 and -10 have key roles in the development ofPCa and provided a basis for further studies.The aims of this study were to: 1) characterise the expression, localisation and levels, of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein in cell models representing characteristics of normal through androgen-dependent to androgen-independent PCa, as well as to expand the primary PCa biopsy data for ADAM-9 and ADAM-10 to encompass PCa bone metastases 2) establish an in vitro cell system, which could express elevated levels of ADAM-1 0 so that functional cell-based assays such as cell migration, invasion and attachment could be carried out, and 3) to extend the previous hormonal regulation data, to fully characterise the response of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein levels to DHT, IGF-1, DHT plus IGF-1 and EGF in the hormonal/growth factor responsive cell line LNCaP. For aim 1 (expression of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein), ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA were characterised by R T -PCR, while their protein products were analysed by Western blot. Both ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein were expressed at readily detectable levels across progressively metastatic PCa cell lines model that represent characteristics of low-grade,. androgen-dependent (LNCaP and C4) to high-grade, androgen-independent (C4-2 and C4-2B) PCa. When the non-tumorigenic prostate cell line RWPE-1 was compared with the metastatic PCa cell line PC-3, differential expression patterns were seen by Western blot analysis. For ADAM-9, the active form was expressed at higher levels in RWPE-1, whilst subcellular fractionation showed that the active form of ADAM-9 was predominantly located in the cell nucleus. For ADAM-I 0, in both of the cell Jines, a nuclear specific isoform of the mature, catalytically active ADAM-I 0 was found. This isoforrn differed by -2 kDa in Mr (smaller) than the cytoplasmic specific isoform. Unprocessed ADAM-I 0 was readily detected in R WPE-1 cell lines but only occasionally detected in PC-3 cell lines. Immunocytochemistry using ADAM-9 and -10 specific antibodies confirmed nuclear, cytoplasmic and membrane expression of both ADAMs in these two cell lines. To examine the possibility of ADAM-9 and -10 being shed into the extracellular environment, membrane vesicles that are constitutively shed from the cell surface and contain membrane-associated proteins were collected from the media of the prostate cell lines RWPE-1, LNCaP and PC-3. ADAM-9 was readily detectable in RWPE- 1 and LNCaP cell membrane vesicles by Western blot analysis, but not in PC-3 cells, whilst the expression of ADAM-I 0 was detected in shed vesicles from each of these prostate cell lines. By Laser Capture Microdissection (LCM), secretory epithelial cells of primary prostate gland biopsies were isolated from benign and malignant glands. These secretory cells, by Western blot analysis, expressed similar Mr bands for ADAM-9 and -10 that were found in PCa cell lines in vitro, indicating that the nuclear specific isoforrn of ADAM-I 0 was present in PCa primary tumours and may represent the predominantly nuclear form of ADAM-I 0 expression, previously shown in high-grade PCa by immunohistochemistry (IHC). ADAM-9 and -10 were also examined by IHC in bone metastases taken from PCa patients at biopsy. Both ADAMs could be detected at levels similar to those shown for Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) in these biopsies. Furthermore, both ADAM-9 and -10 were predominantly membrane- bound with occasional nuclear expression. For aim 2, to establish a cell system that over-expressed levels of ADAM-10, two fulllength ADAM-I 0 mammalian expression vectors were constructed; ADAM-I 0 was cloned into pcDNA3.1, which contains a CMV promoter, and into pMEP4, containing an inducible metallothionine promoter, whose activity is stimulated by the addition of CdC}z. The efficiency of these two constructs was tested by way of transient transfection in the PCa cell line PC-3, whilst the pcDNA3.1 construct was also tested in the RWPE-1 prostate cell line. Resultant Western blot analysis for all transient transfection assays showed that levels of ADAM-I 0 were not significantly elevated in any case, when compared to levels of the housekeeping gene ~-Tubulin, despite testing various levels of vector DNA, and, for pMEP4, the induction of the transfected cell system with different degrees of stimulation with CdCh to activate the metallothionine promoter post-transfection. Another study in this laboratory found similar results when the same full length ADAM-10 sequence was cloned into a Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) expressing vector, as no fluorescence was observed by means of transient tran sfection in the same, and other, PCa cell lines. It was hypothesised that the Kozak sequence included in the full-length construct (human ADAMI 0 naturally occurring sequence) is not strong enough to initiate translation in an artificial system, in cells, which, as described in Aim 1, are already expressing readily detectable levels of endogenous ADAM-10. As a result, time constraints prevented any further progress with Aim 2 and functional studies including cell attachment, invasion and migration were unable to be explored. For Aim 3, to characterise the response of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein levels to DHT, IGF-1, DHT plus IGF-1 and EGF in LNCaP cells, the levels of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA were not stimulated by DHT or IGF-I alone, despite our previous observations that initially characterised ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA as being responsive to DHT. However, IGF-1 in synergy with DHT did significantly elevate mRNA levels ofboth ADAMs. In the case of ADAM-9 and -10 protein, the same trends of stimulation as found at the rnRNA level were shown by Western blot analysis when ADAM-9 and -10 signal intensity was normalised with the housekeeping protein ~-Tubulin. For EGF treatment, both ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein levels were significantly elevated, and further investigation vm found this to be the case for each of these ADAMs proteins in the nuclear fractions of LNCaP cells. These studies are the first to describe extensively, the expression and hormonal/growth factor regulation of two members of the ADAMs family ( -9 and -1 0) in PCa. These observations imply that the expression of ADAM-9 and -10 have varied roles in PCa whilst it develops from androgen-sensitive (early stage disease), through to an androgeninsensitive (late-stage), metastatic disease. Further studies are now required to investigate the several key areas of focus that this research has revealed, including: • Investigation of the cellular mechanisms that are involved in actively transporting the ADAMs to the cell's nuclear compartment and the ADAMs functional roles in the cell nucleus. • The construction of a full-length human ADAM-10 mammalian expression construct with the introduction of a new Kozak sequence, that elevates ADAM-I 0 expression in an in vitro cell system are required, so that functional assays such as cell invasion, migration and attachment may be carried out to fmd the functional consequences of ADAM expression on cellular behaviour. • The regulation studies also need to be extended by confirming the preliminary observations that the nuclear levels of ADAMs may also be elevated by hormones and growth factors such as DHT, IGF-1 and EGF, as well as the regulation of levels of plasma membrany vesicle associated ADAM expression. Given the data presented in this study, it is likely the ADAMs have differential roles throughout the development of PCa due to their differential cellular localisation and synergistic growth-factor regulation. These observations, along with those further studies outlined above, are necessary in identifying these specific components ofPCa metastasis to which the ADAMs may contribute.

Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Noblesse oblige? Determinants of survival in a life and death situation

This paper explores what determines the survival of people in a life–and-death situation. The sinking of the Titanic allows us to inquire whether pro-social behavior matters in such extreme situations. This event can be considered a quasi-natural experiment. The empirical results suggest that social norms such as ‘women and children first’ are persevered during such an event. Women of reproductive age and crew members had a higher probability of survival. Passenger class, fitness, group size, and cultural background also mattered.

Interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms exploring the Titanic and Lusitania disasters

To understand human behavior, it is important to know under what conditions people deviate from selfish rationality. This study explores the interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms using data on the sinking of the Titanic and the Lusitania. We show that time pressure appears to be crucial when explaining behavior under extreme conditions of life and death. Even though the two vessels and the composition of their passengers were quite similar, the behavior of the individuals on board was dramatically different. On the Lusitania, selfish behavior dominated (which corresponds to the classical homo oeconomicus); on the Titanic, social norms and social status (class) dominated, which contradicts standard economics. This difference could be attributed to the fact that the Lusitania sank in 18 minutes, creating a situation in which the short-run flight impulse dominates behavior. On the slowly sinking Titanic (2 hours, 40 minutes), there was time for socially determined behavioral patterns to re-emerge. To our knowledge, this is the first time that these shipping disasters have been analyzed in a comparative manner with advanced statistical (econometric) techniques using individual data of the passengers and crew. Knowing human behavior under extreme conditions allows us to gain insights about how varied human behavior can be depending on differing external conditions.

Towards airport passenger experience models

This paper reports on the study of passenger experiences and how passengers interact with services, technology and processes at an airport. As part of our research, we have followed people through the airport from check-in to security and from security to boarding. Data was collected by approaching passengers in the departures concourse of the airport and asking for their consent to be videotaped. Data was collected and coded and the analysis focused on both discretionary and process related passenger activities. Our findings show the interdependence between activities and passenger experiences. Within all activities, passengers interact with processes, domain dependent technology, services, personnel and artifacts. These levels of interaction impact on passenger experiences and are interdependent. The emerging taxonomy of activities consists of (i) ownership related activities, (ii) group activities, (iii) individual activities (such as activities at the domain interfaces) and (iv) concurrent activities. This classification is contributing to the development of descriptive models of passenger experiences and how these activities affect the facilitation and design of future airports.

Important omitted spatial variables in safety models: Understanding contributing crash causes at intersections

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causation—rests upon the pursuit of numerous lines of inquiry. The research community has focused on analytical methods development (negative binomial specifications, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might think of different lines of inquiry in terms of ‘low lying fruit’—areas of inquiry that might provide significant improvements in understanding crash causation. It is the contention of this research that omitted variable bias caused by the exclusion of important variables is an important line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant ability to better understand contributing factors to crashes. This study—believed to represent a unique contribution to the safety literature—develops and examines the role of a sizeable set of spatial variables in intersection crash occurrence. In addition to commonly considered traffic and geometric variables, examined spatial factors include local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools. The results indicate that inclusion of these factors results in significant improvement in model explanatory power, and the results also generally agree with expectation. The research illuminates the importance of spatial variables in safety research and also the negative consequences of their omissions.

The significance of endogeneity problems in crash models: An examination of left-turn lanes in intersection crash models

Crash prediction models are used for a variety of purposes including forecasting the expected future performance of various transportation system segments with similar traits. The influence of intersection features on safety have been examined extensively because intersections experience a relatively large proportion of motor vehicle conflicts and crashes compared to other segments in the transportation system. The effects of left-turn lanes at intersections in particular have seen mixed results in the literature. Some researchers have found that left-turn lanes are beneficial to safety while others have reported detrimental effects on safety. This inconsistency is not surprising given that the installation of left-turn lanes is often endogenous, that is, influenced by crash counts and/or traffic volumes. Endogeneity creates problems in econometric and statistical models and is likely to account for the inconsistencies reported in the literature. This paper reports on a limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation approach to compensate for endogeneity between left-turn lane presence and angle crashes. The effects of endogeneity are mitigated using the approach, revealing the unbiased effect of left-turn lanes on crash frequency for a dataset of Georgia intersections. The research shows that without accounting for endogeneity, left-turn lanes ‘appear’ to contribute to crashes; however, when endogeneity is accounted for in the model, left-turn lanes reduce angle crash frequencies as expected by engineering judgment. Other endogenous variables may lurk in crash models as well, suggesting that the method may be used to correct simultaneity problems with other variables and in other transportation modeling contexts.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.