A measure of persistence in daily pound exchange rates

An alternative procedure to that of Lo is proposed for assessing whether there is significant evidence of persistence in time series. The technique estimates the Hurst exponent itself, and significance testing is based on an application of bootstrapping using surrogate data. The method is applied to a set of 10 daily pound exchange rates. A general lack of long-term memory is found to characterize all the series tested, in sympathy with the findings of a number of other recent papers which have used Lo's techniques.

In vitro and in vivo models of colorectal cancer: antigenotoxic activity of berries.

The etiology of colorectal cancer (CRC), a common cause of cancer-related mortality globally, has strong associations with diet. There is considerable epidemiological evidence that fruits and vegetables are associated with reduced risk of CRC. This paper reviews the extensive evidence, both from in vitro studies and animal models, that components of berry fruits can modulate biomarkers of DNA damage and that these effects may be potentially chemoprotective, given the likely role that oxidative damage plays in mutation rate and cancer risk. Human intervention trials with berries are generally consistent in indicating a capacity to significantly decrease oxidative damage to DNA, but represent limited evidence for anticarcinogenicity, relying as they do on surrogate risk markers. To understand the effects of berry consumption on colorectal cancer risk, future studies will need to be well controlled, with defined berry extracts, using suitable and clinically relevant end points and considering the importance of the gut microbiota.

A doubling of the sun's coronal magnetic field during the last 100 years

The solar wind is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical conductivity, and therefore drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field(1,2). Magnetic reconnection-the merging of oppositely directed magnetic fields-between the interplanetary field and the Earth's magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment. The Sun's properties, such as its luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, although the connections are still not well understood(3,4). Moreover, changes in the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global climate(5), Here we show that measurements of the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964: surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field indicate that the increase since 1901 has been by a factor of 2,3, This increase may be related to chaotic changes in the dynamo that generates the solar magnetic field. We do not yet know quantitatively how such changes will influence the global environment.

Drift from the use of handheld knapsack pesticide sprayers in Boyacá (Colombian Andes)

Offsite pesticide losses in tropical mountainous regions have been little studied. One example is measuring pesticide drift soil deposition, which can support pesticide risk assessment for surface water, soil, bystanders, off target plants and fauna. This is considered a serious gap, given the evidence of pesticide-related poisoning in those regions. Empirical data of drift deposition of a pesticide surrogate, Uranine tracer, within one of the highest potato producing regions in Colombia, characterized by small plots and mountain orography, is presented. High drift values encountered in our study reflect the actual spray conditions using handled knapsack sprayers. Comparison between measured and predicted drift values using three existing empirical equations showed important underestimation. However, after their optimization based on measured drift information, the equations showed a strong predictive power for this study area and the study conditions. The most suitable curve to assess mean relative drift was the IMAG calculator after optimization.

Cocoa flavanol intake improves endothelial function and Framingham Risk Score in healthy men and women: a randomised, controlled, double-masked trial: the Flaviola Health Study

Cocoa flavanol (CF) intake improves endothelial function in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and disease. We investigated the effects of CF on surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in low risk, healthy, middle-aged individuals without history, signs or symptoms of CVD. In a 1-month, open-label, one-armed pilot study, bi-daily ingestion of 450 mg of CF led to a time-dependent increase in endothelial function (measured as flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD)) that plateaued after 2 weeks. Subsequently, in a randomised, controlled, double-masked, parallel-group dietary intervention trial (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01799005), 100 healthy, middle-aged (35–60 years) men and women consumed either the CF-containing drink (450 mg) or a nutrient-matched CF-free control bi-daily for 1 month. The primary end point was FMD. Secondary end points included plasma lipids and blood pressure, thus enabling the calculation of Framingham Risk Scores and pulse wave velocity. At 1 month, CF increased FMD over control by 1·2 % (95 % CI 1·0, 1·4 %). CF decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 4·4 mmHg (95 % CI 7·9, 0·9 mmHg) and 3·9 mmHg (95 % CI 6·7, 0·9 mmHg), pulse wave velocity by 0·4 m/s (95 % CI 0·8, 0·04 m/s), total cholesterol by 0·20 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·39, 0·01 mmol/l) and LDL-cholesterol by 0·17 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·32, 0·02 mmol/l), whereas HDL-cholesterol increased by 0·10 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·04, 0·17 mmol/l). By applying the Framingham Risk Score, CF predicted a significant lowering of 10-year risk for CHD, myocardial infarction, CVD, death from CHD and CVD. In healthy individuals, regular CF intake improved accredited cardiovascular surrogates of cardiovascular risk, demonstrating that dietary flavanols have the potential to maintain cardiovascular health even in low-risk subjects.

Quantitative structure of an acetate dye molecule analogue at the TiO2- acetic acid interface

The positions of atoms in and around acetate molecules at the rutile TiO2(110) interface with 0.1 M acetic acid have been determined with a precision of ±0.05 Å. Acetate is used as a surrogate for the carboxylate groups typically employed to anchor monocarboxylate dye molecules to TiO2 in dye-sensitised solar cells (DSSC). Structural analysis reveals small domains of ordered (2 x 1) acetate molecules, with substrate atoms closer to their bulk terminated positions compared to the clean UHV surface. Acetate is found in a bidentate bridge position, binding through both oxygen atoms to two five-fold titanium atoms such that the molecular plane is along the [001] azimuth. Density functional theory calculations provide adsorption geometries in excellent agreement with experiment. The availability of these structural data will improve the accuracy of charge transport models for DSSC.

STUDY OF THE EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIXING LAYER USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL TURBULENCE MODEL

The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) is applied to the diagnostic turbulence field of the mixing layer (ML) over the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean. Two situations were investigated: rainy and dry seasons, defined, respectively, by the presence of the intertropical convergence zone and by its northward displacement. Simulations were carried out using data from a PIRATA buoy located on the equator at 23 degrees W to compute surface turbulent fluxes and from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project to close the surface radiation balance. A data assimilation scheme was used as a surrogate for the physical effects not present in the one-dimensional model. In the rainy season, results show that the ML is shallower due to the weaker surface stress and stronger stable stratification; the maximum ML depth reached during this season is around 15 m, with an averaged diurnal variation of 7 m depth. In the dry season, the stronger surface stress and the enhanced surface heat balance components enable higher mechanical production of turbulent kinetic energy and, at night, the buoyancy acts also enhancing turbulence in the first meters of depth, characterizing a deeper ML, reaching around 60 m and presenting an average diurnal variation of 30 m.

Consistency in approximate entropy given by a volumetric estimate

Non-linear methods for estimating variability in time-series are currently of widespread use. Among such methods are approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample approximate entropy (SampEn). The applicability of ApEn and SampEn in analyzing data is evident and their use is increasing. However, consistency is a point of concern in these tools, i.e., the classification of the temporal organization of a data set might indicate a relative less ordered series in relation to another when the opposite is true. As highlighted by their proponents themselves, ApEn and SampEn might present incorrect results due to this lack of consistency. In this study, we present a method which gains consistency by using ApEn repeatedly in a wide range of combinations of window lengths and matching error tolerance. The tool is called volumetric approximate entropy, vApEn. We analyze nine artificially generated prototypical time-series with different degrees of temporal order (combinations of sine waves, logistic maps with different control parameter values, random noises). While ApEn/SampEn clearly fail to consistently identify the temporal order of the sequences, vApEn correctly do. In order to validate the tool we performed shuffled and surrogate data analysis. Statistical analysis confirmed the consistency of the method. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Taxon surrogates among Amazonian mammals: Can total species richness be predicted by single orders?

Limited financial sources and the difficulty in performing complete surveys, allied to the speed of habitat fragmentation and the urgent necessity in select conservation areas, create the necessity of using some methodologies which bypass these problems. One possibility is the use of surrogate taxa that might be used as indicator of others groups richness and even total richness of an area. We investigated if the use of surrogate taxon is useful among seven mammal orders in Amazon. We tested through Pearson`s correlation (Bonferroni`s adjusted) if (1) there was a correlation between richness of total species and some order; (2) there was a significant pair wise correlation between species richness of each order; and (3) the combination of two orders would give better results as a surrogate for the total richness. The correlations found, in general, were positive. It means that the increase in the richness of an order was followed by its increase in another order, as well as in the total species richness. Only Didelphimorphia was significantly correlated with the total species richness. In the pair wise analyses only one assembly, Primates and Artiodactyla, was significantly correlated with total richness. Since indicator species are more effective within taxonomic groups (life-history characteristics are likely to be more different among than within major taxonomic groups), we suggest that an indicator group might be chosen for each one. In this case, for mammals from Amazon, it would be Didelphimorphia. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional and morphologic evaluation of kidney proximal tubuli and correlation with renal allograft prognosis

P>Renal transplant patients with stable graft function and proximal tubular dysfunction (PTD) have an increased risk for chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN). In this study, we investigated the histologic pattern associated with PTD and its correlation with graft outcome. Forty-nine transplant patients with stable graft function were submitted to a biopsy. Simultaneously, urinary retinol-binding protein (uRBP) was measured and creatinine clearance was also determined. Banff`s score and semi-quantitative histologic analyses were performed to assess tubulointerstitial alterations. Patients were followed for 24.0 +/- 7.8 months. At biopsy time, mean serum creatinine was 1.43 +/- 0.33 mg/dl. Twelve patients (24.5%) had uRBP >= 1 mg/l, indicating PTD and 67% of biopsies had some degree of tubulointerstitial injury. At the end of the study period, 18 (36.7%) patients had lost renal function. uRBP levels were not associated with morphologic findings of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA), interstitial fibrosis measured by Sirius red or tubulointerstitial damage. However, in multivariate analysis, the only variable associated with the loss of renal function was uRBP level >= 1 mg/l, determining a risk of 5.290 of loss of renal function (P = 0.003). Renal transplant patients who present PTD have functional alteration, which is not associated with morphologic alteration. This functional alteration is associated to progressive decrease in renal function.

Measurement error models with a general class of error distribution

In general, the normal distribution is assumed for the surrogate of the true covariates in the classical error model. This paper considers a class of distributions, which includes the normal one, for the variables subject to error. An estimation approach yielding consistent estimators is developed and simulation studies reported.

”He looked at me ... My God. His eyes were eyes to die for.” : A Feminist Theological Reading of Carol Ann Duffy’s The World’s Wife

Most approaches to Duffy’s work have been a feminist reading of poetry, focusing on the portrayal of women within the theoretical framework of feminism. However, little attention has been paid to the religious elements in Duffy’s work, something that Duffy herself has recognized. This essay will therefore focus on the centrality of religion in Duffy’s work, and will argue that her poems constitute an arena where religion is redefined and female experience and theology are reconciled. The poems under focus, “Delilah”, “Salome”, “Pilate’s wife”, “Pope Joan”, “Mrs Lazarous” and “Queen Herod” are examined in two separate sections: their portrayal of love and sexuality, and their portrayal of motherhood respectively, within the theoretical framework of feminist theology.

Inte bara jämställdhet : Beslutet om föräldraledighet, moderskaps- och faderskapsidealoch idéer om barns bästa

More than gender equality. Decisions on parental leave and ideals around motherhood, fatherhood and the best interest of the child On the basis of 40 semi-structured interviews, this study discusses decision making processes regarding parental leave among nascent first-time middle-class parents in Sweden. We analyze motives and ideas behind the couples’ plans and decisions and how decisions on parental leave were made. We furthermore show how the decision making processes can be discussed in relation to the institutional context. The results show that ideals and norms of gender equality are accompanied by gendered divisions of work and care and a partially traditional view on motherhood and fatherhood. Contrary to previous studies, we do not find a clear link between gender equal ideals and explicit negotiations. An equal division of parental leave is, in some couples, taken for granted to such an extent that the decision on how to divide the leave is taken implicitly rather than explicitly. Decisions on division of parental leave are not isolated processes. Rather, ideals and norms around motherhood, fatherhood, gender equality and not least what is ‘in the best interest of the child’ constitute part of the context in which these decision making processes take place.

Pregnant Adolescents in Vietnam : Social context and health care needs

Background: The number of childbearing adolescents in Vietnam is relatively low but they are more prone to experience adverse outcome than adult women. Reports of increasing rates of abortion and prevalence of STIs including HIV among youth indicate a need to improve services and counselling for these groups. Midwives are key persons in the promotion of young people’s sexual and reproductive health in Vietnam. Aim: The overall aim of this thesis is to describe the prevalence and outcome of adolescent pregnancies in Vietnam (I), to explore the social context and health care seeking behavior of pregnant adolescents (II), as well as to explore the perspectives of health care providers and midwifery students regarding adolescent sexuality and reproductive health service needs (III, IV). Methods: The studies were conducted from 2002 to 2005, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods. A population based prospective survey was used to estimate rates and outcomes of adolescent pregnancies (I). Pregnant and newly delivered adolescents’ experiences of childbearing and their encounters with health care providers were studied using qualitative interviews (II). Health care providers’ perspective on adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) and views on how to improve the quality of abortion care was explored in focus group discussions (FGD). The values and attitudes of midwifery students about ASRH were investigated using questionnaires and interviews (IV). Descriptive statistics was used to analyse quantitative data (I, IV) and content analysis were applied for qualitative data (II, III, and IV). Findings: Adolescent birth rate was similar to previously reported in Vietnam but lower when compared to other Asian countries. The incidence of stillborn among adolescents was higher than for women in higher reproductive ages. The proportion of preterm deliveries was 20 % of all births, higher than previous findings from Vietnam. About 2 % of the deliveries were home deliveries, more common among women with low education, belonging to ethnic minority and/or living in mountainous areas (I). Ambivalence facing motherhood, pride and happiness but also worries and lack of self-confidence emerged as themes from the interviews; and experience of ‘being in the hands of others’ in a positive, caring sense but also in a sense of subordination in relation to husband, family and health care providers (II). Health care providers at abortion clinics and midwifery students generally disapproved of pre-marital sex, but had a pragmatic view on the need for contraceptive services and counselling to reduce the burden of unwanted pregnancies and abortions for young women. Providers and midwifery students expressed a need for training on ASRH issues (III, IV). Conclusion: Cultural norms and gender inequity make pregnant adolescent women in Vietnam vulnerable to sexual and reproductive health risks. Health care providers experience ethical dilemmas while counselling unmarried adolescents who come for abortion and this has a negative impact on the quality of care. Integrated ASRH in education and training programmes for health care providers, including midwives, as well as continued in-service training on these issues are suggested to improve reproductive health care services in Vietnam.

Barnfri : en stigmatiserad position

Childfree: a stigmatized position International research has addressed the subject but in Sweden voluntary childlessness has until now been overlooked. This article draws on qualitative, semi-structured interviews with 21 Swedish childfree women. The interviews focused their decision not to have children and attitudes they faced due to their rejection of motherhood. They all had encountered pressure to conform to a pronatalistic norm, proclaiming parenthood to be self-evident in an adult normal life. The results highlight different strategies used by the women to avoid instigating the dislike of those around them. The article argues that understanding childfree as a stigmatized position helps providing new insights to what conditions the social relations between the childfree and ‘the normals’, i.e. persons who advocate having children. Further, viewing the childfree as a stigmatized group has theoretical implications that contribute to developing Goffman’s classical theory of social stigma.