Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

The role of Mexico in the first oil shortage: 1918-1922, an international perspective

In 1921 Mexico produced a quarter of world s petroleum, making the country the secondlargest producer in the world, but by 1930 it only accounted for 3 per cent of world sproduction. To date the discussion has mostly relied on events taking place in Mexico forexplaining the decline of the industry. Very little attention has been placed todevelopments in petroleum industry elsewhere, except Venezuela. Practically noattention has been paid to the reasons for the rise of oil output in Mexico. This neglectsthe massive changes taking place in the petroleum industry worldwide during the GreatWar years and its aftermath, and overall ignores the shortage of oil that occurred in theworld s markets between 1918-1921. These are crucial events in order to understand theearly rise of the Mexican oil industry and set the basis for a better understanding of thesubsequent sudden decline.

Irreversible investment in stochastically cyclical markets

This paper presents a new framework for studying irreversible (dis)investment whena market follows a random number of random-length cycles (such as a high-tech productmarket). It is assumed that a firm facing such market evolution is always unsure aboutwhether the current cycle is the last one, although it can update its beliefs about theprobability of facing a permanent decline by observing that no further growth phasearrives. We show that the existence of regime shifts in fluctuating markets suffices for anoption value of waiting to (dis)invest to arise, and we provide a marginal interpretationof the optimal (dis)investment policies, absent in the real options literature. Thepaper also shows that, despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has acontinuous sample path, the discreteness in the regime changes implies that the samplepath of the firm s value experiences jumps whenever the regime switches all of a sudden,irrespective of whether the firm is active or not.

Stable isotope and trace element stratigraphy across the Permian-Triassic transition: A redefinition of the boundary in the Velebit Mountain, Croatia

Stable isotopes of carbonates (delta(13)C(carb), delta(18)O(carb)), organic matter (delta(13)C(org), delta(15)N(org)) and major, trace and rare earth element (REE) compositions of marine carbonate rocks of Late Permian to Early Triassic age were used to establish the position of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) at two continuous sections in the Velebit Mountain, Croatia. The chosen sections - Rizvanusa and Brezimenjaca - are composed of two lithostratigraphic units, the Upper Permian Transitional Dolomite and the overlying Sandy Dolomite. The contact between these units, characterized by the erosional features and sudden occurrence of ooids and siliciclastic grains, was previously considered as the chronostratigraphic PTB. The Sandy Dolomite is characterized by high content of non-carbonate material (up to similar to 30 wt.% insoluble residue), originated from erosion of the uplifted hinterland. A relatively rich assemblage of Permian fossils (including Geinitzina, Globivalvulina, Hemigordius, bioclasts of gastropods, ostracods and brachiopods) was found for the first time in Sandy Dolomite, 5 m above the lithologic boundary in the Rizvanusa section. A rather abrupt negative delta(13)C(carb) excursion in both sections appears in rocks showing no recognizable facies change within the Sandy Dolomite, -2 parts per thousand at Rizvanusa and -1.2 parts per thousand at Brezimenjaca, 11 m and 0.2 m above the lithologic contact, respectively. This level within the lower part of the Sandy Dolomite is proposed as the chemostratigraphic PTB. In the Rizvanusa section, the delta(13)C(org) values decline gradually from similar to-25 parts per thousand in the Upper Permian to similar to-29 parts per thousand in the Lower Triassic. The first negative delta(13)C(org) excursion occurs above the lithologic contact, within the uppermost Permian deposits, and appears to be related to the input of terrigenous material. The release of isotopically light microbial soil-biomass into the shallow-marine water may explain this sudden decrease of delta(13)C(org) values below the PTB. This would support the hypothesis that in the western Tethyan realm the land extinction, triggering a sudden drop of woody vegetation and related land erosion, preceded the marine extinction. The relatively low delta(15)N(org) values at the Permian-Triassic (P-Tr) transition level, close to approximate to 0 parts per thousand, and a secondary negative delta(13)C(org) excursion of -0.5 parts per thousand point to significant terrestrial input and primary contribution of cyanobacteria. The profiles of the concentrations of redox-sensitive elements (Ce, Mn, Fe, V), biogenic or biogenic-scavenged elements (P, Ba, Zn, V), Ce/Ce* values, and normalized trace elements, including Ba/Al, Ba/Fe, Ti/Al, Al/(Al + Fe + Mn) and Mn/Ti show clear excursions at the Transitional Dolomite-Sandy Dolomite lithologic boundary and the chemostratigraphic P-Tr boundary. The stratigraphic variations indicate a major regression phase marking the lithologic boundary, transgressive phases in the latest Permian and a gradual change into shallow/stagnant anoxic marine environment towards the P-Tr boundary level and during the earliest Triassic. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Morfogénesis del valle de Sant Miquel de Campmajor

A series of circumstances which converge in a little valley in the province of Girona, result in a peculiar type of morphogenetic evolution and a quite singular mechanical instability of its buttons. Very recent tectonic movements as well as dissolution phenomena of its subsoil due to pressurized underground water have played an important role in the morphogenesis. Such conditions have resulted in a fast morphological evolution which a progressive lowering of the valley floor as well as peculiar morphological features which favour the existence of numerous pits caused by sudden collapses distributed in altitude and time

Virtual autopsy with multiphase postmortem computed tomographic angiography versus traditional medical autopsy to investigate unexpected deaths of hospitalized patients: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: "Virtual" autopsy by postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) can replace medical autopsy to a certain extent but has limitations for cardiovascular diseases. These limitations might be overcome by adding multiphase PMCT angiography. OBJECTIVE: To compare virtual autopsy by multiphase PMCT angiography with medical autopsy. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01541995) SETTING: Single-center study at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany, between 1 April 2012 and 31 March 2013. PATIENTS: Hospitalized patients who died unexpectedly or within 48 hours of an event necessitating cardiopulmonary resuscitation. MEASUREMENTS: Diagnoses from clinical records were compared with findings from both types of autopsy. New diagnoses identified by autopsy were classified as major or minor, depending on whether they would have altered clinical management. RESULTS: Of 143 eligible patients, 50 (35%) had virtual and medical autopsy. Virtual autopsy confirmed 93% of all 336 diagnoses identified from antemortem medical records, and medical autopsy confirmed 80%. In addition, virtual and medical autopsy identified 16 new major and 238 new minor diagnoses. Seventy-three of the virtual autopsy diagnoses, including 32 cases of coronary artery stenosis, were identified solely by multiphase PMCT angiography. Of the 114 clinical diagnoses classified as cardiovascular, 110 were confirmed by virtual autopsy and 107 by medical autopsy. In 11 cases, multiphase PMCT angiography showed "unspecific filling defects," which were not reported by medical autopsy. LIMITATION: These results come from a single center with concerted interest and expertise in postmortem imaging; further studies are thus needed for generalization. CONCLUSION: In cases of unexpected death, the addition of multiphase PMCT angiography increases the value of virtual autopsy, making it a feasible alternative for quality control and identification of diagnoses traditionally made by medical autopsy. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf.

Managing Soybean Cyst Nematode, 2007

Soybean cyst nematode (SCN) causes the greatest yield loss of any single pathogen of soybean in Iowa. An estimated 50 million bushels were lost in Iowa to SCN in 2004. Damage from SCN is not limited to yield loss from root feeding; SCN also makes other diseases like sudden death syndrome, iron deficiency chlorosis, Pythium, Phytophthora root and stem rot and brown stem rot worse. Once established in a field, SCN cannot be eradicated. However, the use of multiple management tactics can help minimize yield loss.

Environmental stress and atavism in ammonoid evolution

The most common trends observed in ammonoid evolution during ecologically stable periods are characterized by an increase of shell curvature (e.g. evolute to involute), by the development of more complex ornamentation (flexuosity of ribbing, appearance of nodes and spines) and by a long term increase of the suture line's fractal dimension. Major evolutionary jumps in ammonoids occur during severe extinction events, and are characterized by the sudden appearance of simple, primitive-looking forms which are similar to remote ancestors of their more complex immediate progenitors. Such forms are interpreted as atavistic. According to this hypothesis, homeomorphic species generated during such sublethal stress events can be separated by several millions of years.

Prediction of the bulking phenomenon in wastewater treatment plants

The control and prediction of wastewater treatment plants poses an important goal: to avoid breaking the environmental balance by always keeping the system in stable operating conditions. It is known that qualitative information — coming from microscopic examinations and subjective remarks — has a deep influence on the activated sludge process. In particular, on the total amount of effluent suspended solids, one of the measures of overall plant performance. The search for an input–output model of this variable and the prediction of sudden increases (bulking episodes) is thus a central concern to ensure the fulfillment of current discharge limitations. Unfortunately, the strong interrelationbetween variables, their heterogeneity and the very high amount of missing information makes the use of traditional techniques difficult, or even impossible. Through the combined use of several methods — rough set theory and artificial neural networks, mainly — reasonable prediction models are found, which also serve to show the different importance of variables and provide insight into the process dynamics

Intracranial hypertension: what additional information can be derived from ICP waveform after head injury?

OBJECTIVE: Although intracranial hypertension is one of the important prognostic factors after head injury, increased intracranial pressure (ICP) may also be observed in patients with favourable outcome. We have studied whether the value of ICP monitoring can be augmented by indices describing cerebrovascular pressure-reactivity and pressure-volume compensatory reserve derived from ICP and arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveforms. METHOD: 96 patients with intracranial hypertension were studied retrospectively: 57 with fatal outcome and 39 with favourable outcome. ABP and ICP waveforms were recorded. Indices of cerebrovascular reactivity (PRx) and cerebrospinal compensatory reserve (RAP) were calculated as moving correlation coefficients between slow waves of ABP and ICP, and between slow waves of ICP pulse amplitude and mean ICP, respectively. The magnitude of 'slow waves' was derived using ICP low-pass spectral filtration. RESULTS: The most significant difference was found in the magnitude of slow waves that was persistently higher in patients with a favourable outcome (p<0.00004). In patients who died ICP was significantly higher (p<0.0001) and cerebrovascular pressure-reactivity (described by PRx) was compromised (p<0.024). In the same patients, pressure-volume compensatory reserve showed a gradual deterioration over time with a sudden drop of RAP when ICP started to rise, suggesting an overlapping disruption of the vasomotor response. CONCLUSION: Indices derived from ICP waveform analysis can be helpful for the interpretation of progressive intracranial hypertension in patients after brain trauma.

Electroencephalogram paroxysmal theta characterizes cataplexy in mice and children.

Astute control of brain activity states is critical for adaptive behaviours and survival. In mammals and birds, electroencephalographic recordings reveal alternating states of wakefulness, slow wave sleep and paradoxical sleep (or rapid eye movement sleep). This control is profoundly impaired in narcolepsy with cataplexy, a disease resulting from the loss of orexin/hypocretin neurotransmitter signalling in the brain. Narcolepsy with cataplexy is characterized by irresistible bouts of sleep during the day, sleep fragmentation during the night and episodes of cataplexy, a sudden loss of muscle tone while awake and experiencing emotions. The neural mechanisms underlying cataplexy are unknown, but commonly thought to involve those of rapid eye movement-sleep atonia, and cataplexy typically is considered as a rapid eye movement sleep disorder. Here we reassess cataplexy in hypocretin (Hcrt, also known as orexin) gene knockout mice. Using a novel video/electroencephalogram double-blind scoring method, we show that cataplexy is not a state per se, as believed previously, but a dynamic, multi-phased process involving a reproducible progression of states. A knockout-specific state and a stereotypical paroxysmal event were introduced to account for signals and electroencephalogram spectral characteristics not seen in wild-type littermates. Cataplexy almost invariably started with a brief phase of wake-like electroencephalogram, followed by a phase featuring high-amplitude irregular theta oscillations, defining an activity profile distinct from paradoxical sleep, referred to as cataplexy-associated state and in the course of which 1.5-2 s high-amplitude, highly regular, hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta bursts (∼7 Hz) occurred. In contrast to cataplexy onset, exit from cataplexy did not show a predictable sequence of activities. Altogether, these data contradict the hypothesis that cataplexy is a state similar to paradoxical sleep, even if long cataplexies may evolve into paradoxical sleep. Although not exclusive to overt cataplexy, cataplexy-associated state and hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta activities are highly enriched during cataplexy in hypocretin/orexin knockout mice. Their occurrence in an independent narcolepsy mouse model, the orexin/ataxin 3 transgenic mouse, undergoing loss of orexin neurons, was confirmed. Importantly, we document for the first time similar paroxysmal theta hypersynchronies (∼4 Hz) during cataplexy in narcoleptic children. Lastly, we show by deep recordings in mice that the cataplexy-associated state and hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta activities are independent of hippocampal theta and involve the frontal cortex. Cataplexy hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta bursts may represent medial prefrontal activity, associated in humans and rodents with reward-driven motor impulse, planning and conflict monitoring.

Transapical aortic valve replacement in extreme-risk patients: outcome, risk factors and mid-term results.

OBJECTIVES: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) provides good results in selected high-risk patients. However, it is unclear whether this procedure carries advantages in extreme-risk profile patients with logistic EuroSCORE above 35%. METHODS: From January 2009 to July 2011, of a total number of 92 transcatheter aortic valve procedures performed, 40 'extreme-risk' patients underwent transapical TAVR (TA-TAVR) (EuroSCORE above 35%). Variables were analysed as risk factors for hospital and mid-term mortality, and a 2-year follow-up (FU) was obtained. RESULTS: The mean age was: 81 ± 10 years. Twelve patients (30%) had chronic pulmonary disease, 32 (80%) severe peripheral vascular disease, 14 (35%) previous cardiac surgery, 19 (48%) chronic renal failure (2 in dialysis), 7 (17%) previous stroke (1 with disabilities), 3 (7%) a porcelain aorta and 12 (30%) were urgent cases. Mean left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) was 49 ± 13%, and mean logistic EuroSCORE was 48 ± 11%. Forty stent-valves were successfully implanted with six Grade-1 and one Grade-2 paravalvular leakages (success rate: 100%). Hospital mortality was 20% (8 patients). Causes of death following the valve academic research consortium (VARC) definitions were: life-threatening haemorrhage (1), myocardial infarction (1), sudden death (1), multiorgan failure (2), stroke (1) and severe respiratory dysfunction (2). Major complications (VARC definitions) were: myocardial infarction for left coronary ostium occlusion (1), life-threatening bleeding (2), stroke (2) and acute kidney injury with dialysis (2). Predictors for hospital mortality were: conversion to sternotomy, life-threatening haemorrhage, postoperative dialysis and long intensive care unit (ICU) stay. Variables associated with hospital mortality were: conversion to sternotomy (P = 0.03), life-threatening bleeding (P = 0.02), acute kidney injury with dialysis (P = 0.03) and prolonged ICU stay (P = 0.02). Mean FU time was 24 months: actuarial survival estimates for all-cause mortality at 6 months, 1 year, 18 months and 2 years were 68, 57, 54 and 54%, respectively. Patients still alive at FU were in good clinical condition, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class 1-2 and were never rehospitalized for cardiac decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: TA-TAVR in extreme-risk patients carries a moderate risk of hospital mortality. Severe comorbidities and presence of residual paravalvular leakages affect the mid-term survival, whereas surviving patients have an acceptable quality of life without rehospitalizations for cardiac decompensation.

Clinical role of coronary magnetic resonance angiography in the diagnosis of anomalous coronary arteries.

Though rare, anomalous coronary artery disease is a well-known cause of myocardial ischemia and sudden death among children and young adults. The projectional nature of conventional x-ray angiography often leads to difficulty in the definition of anomalous vessels. Studies have now documented the high accuracy of coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for the noninvasive detection and definition of anomalous coronary arteries among patients with suspected anomalous coronary arteries of congenital conditions associated with anomalous coronary arteries. With increasing clinical experience, coronary MRA will likely emerge as the gold standard for the diagnosis of this condition.

Cardiac raptor ablation impairs adaptive hypertrophy, alters metabolic gene expression, and causes heart failure in mice.

Background- Cardiac hypertrophy involves growth responses to a variety of stimuli triggered by increased workload. It is an independent risk factor for heart failure and sudden death. Mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) plays a key role in cellular growth responses by integrating growth factor and energy status signals. It is found in 2 structurally and functionally distinct multiprotein complexes called mTOR complex (mTORC) 1 and mTORC2. The role of each of these branches of mTOR signaling in the adult heart is currently unknown. Methods and Results- We generated mice with deficient myocardial mTORC1 activity by targeted ablation of raptor, which encodes an essential component of mTORC1, during adulthood. At 3 weeks after the deletion, atrial and brain natriuretic peptides and β-myosin heavy chain were strongly induced, multiple genes involved in the regulation of energy metabolism were altered, but cardiac function was normal. Function deteriorated rapidly afterward, resulting in dilated cardiomyopathy and high mortality within 6 weeks. Aortic banding-induced pathological overload resulted in severe dilated cardiomyopathy already at 1 week without a prior phase of adaptive hypertrophy. The mechanism involved a lack of adaptive cardiomyocyte growth via blunted protein synthesis capacity, as supported by reduced phosphorylation of ribosomal S6 kinase 1 and 4E-binding protein 1. In addition, reduced mitochondrial content, a shift in metabolic substrate use, and increased apoptosis and autophagy were observed. Conclusions- Our results demonstrate an essential function for mTORC1 in the heart under physiological and pathological conditions and are relevant for the understanding of disease states in which the insulin/insulin-like growth factor signaling axis is affected such as diabetes mellitus and heart failure or after cancer therapy.