Coaches` subjective talent criteria in top-level soccer

Introduction: In professional soccer, talent selection relies on the subjective judgment of scouts and coaches. To date, little is known about coaches´ “eye for talent” (Christensen, 2009, p. 379) and the nature of the subjective criteria they use to identify those players with the greatest potential to achieve peak performance in adulthood (Williams & Reilly, 2000). Drawing on a constructivist approach (Kelly, 1991), this study explores coaches´ subjective talent criteria. It is assumed that coaches are able to verbalise and specify their talent criteria, and that these are related to their talent selection decisions based on instinct. Methods: Participants and generation of data. Five national youth soccer coaches (Mage = 55.6; SD = 5.03) were investigated at three appointments: (1) talent selection decision based on instinct, (2) semi-structured inductive interview to elicit each coaches´ talent criteria in detail, (3) communicative validation and evaluation of the players by each coach using the repertory grid technique (Fromm, 2004). Data Analysis: Interviews were transcribed and summarized with regard to each specified talent criterion. Each talent criterion was categorized using a bottom-up-approach (meaning categorization, Kvale, 1996). The repertory grid data was analysed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Results and Discussion: For each coach, six to nine talent criteria were elicited and specified. The subjective talent criteria include aspects of personality, cognitive perceptual skills, motor abilities, development, technique, social environment and physical constitution, which shows that the coaches use a multi-dimensional concept of talent. However, more than half of all criteria describe personality characteristics, in particular achievement motivation, volition and self-confidence. In contrast to Morris (2000), this result shows that coaches have a differentiated view of the personality characteristics required to achieve peak performance. As an indication of criterion validity, moderate to high correlations (.57 ≤ r ≤ .81) are found between the evaluations of the players according to the coaches´ talent criteria and their talent selection decision. The study shows that coaches are able to specify their subject talent criteria and that those criteria are strongly related to their instinctive selection decisions. References: Christensen, M. K. (2009). "An Eye for Talent": Talent Identification and the "Practical Sense" of Top-Level Soccer Coaches. Sociology of Sport Journal, 26, 365–382. Fromm, M. (2004). Introduction to the Repertory Grid Interview. Münster: Waxmann. Kelly, G. A. (1991). The Psychology of Personal Constructs: Volume One: Theory and personality. London: Routledge. Kvale, S. (1996). InterViews: An introduction to Qualitative Research Interviewing. Thousand Oaks: Sage. Morris, T. (2000). Psychological characteristics and talent identification in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 715–726. Williams, A. M., & Reilly, T. (2000). Talent identification and development in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 657–667.

A logarithmic efficient estimator of the probability of ruin with recuperation for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

Subjective perception of sleepiness in a driving simulator is different from that in the Maintenance of Wakefulness Test.

OBJECTIVE To test whether sleep-deprived, healthy subjects who do not always signal spontaneously perceived sleepiness (SPS) before falling asleep during the Maintenance of Wakefulness Test (MWT) would do so in a driving simulator. METHODS Twenty-four healthy subjects (20-26 years old) underwent a MWT for 40 min and a driving simulator test for 1 h, before and after one night of sleep deprivation. Standard electroencephalography, electrooculography, submental electromyography, and face videography were recorded simultaneously to score wakefulness and sleep. Subjects were instructed to signal SPS as soon as they subjectively felt sleepy and to try to stay awake for as long as possible in every test. They were rewarded for both "appropriate" perception of SPS and staying awake for as long as possible. RESULTS After sleep deprivation, seven subjects (29%) did not signal SPS before falling asleep in the MWT, but all subjects signalled SPS before falling asleep in the driving simulator (p <0.004). CONCLUSIONS The previous results of an "inaccurate" SPS in the MWT were confirmed, and a perfect SPS was shown in the driving simulator. It was hypothesised that SPS is more accurate for tasks involving continuous feedback of performance, such as driving, compared to the less active situation of the MWT. Spontaneously perceived sleepiness in the MWT cannot be used to judge sleepiness perception while driving. Further studies are needed to define the accuracy of SPS in working tasks or occupations with minimal or no performance feedback.

Trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage

Background: Marital dissolution is known to be among the most stressful life events with long- reaching negative consequences on individuals’ lives. A limitation in research to date is that most studies have focused on the impact of marital disruption on well-being outcomes in younger adults. Furthermore, although population-based studies on divorce document a broad range of negative effects, more fine-grained analyses reveal a large heterogeneity in people’s adjustment, which is still not well understood. Objective: To explore trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage, and to examine variables accounting for recovery or chronicity in terms of intrapersonal resources (personality, trait resilience, personal growth), relationship variables (satisfaction with ex- relationship, length of marriage, time since divorce) and socio-demographic variables (age, gender, financial situation). Methods: Latent transition analysis is used to examine the course of psychological adaptation (i.e., depressive symptoms, life satisfaction, hopelessness, mourning and subjective health) to divorce over two years among five profiles of 308 divorcees (mean age: 55.6 years; average duration of former marriage: 23.62 years): Two larger groups of individuals, the one which adapted very well (‘resilients’, 29%), the other quite well (‘average copers’, 49%), and three groups with major difficulties (‘vulnerables’, 6%; ‘malcontents’, 12%; and ‘resigned’, 4%). In a second step the differences among transition patterns were explored on the basis of the distal variables (i.e., intrapersonal resources, relationship variables, socio-demographics). Results: Although the probability of upward changes was higher for those individuals with lower adaptation at time 1, only a small number of individuals made an upward change from the maladapted to the well-adapted groups throughout the two years. The groups of copers and resilients remained stable in their psychological adaption. The most consistent results related to upward changes were intrapersonal resources, namely the NEO personality traits and trait resilience. Conclusion: The majority of individuals divorcing after a long-term marriage adapt successfully over time. Adaptation trajectories depend primarily on intrapersonal resources. However, a minority of divorcees exhibit enduring difficulties. Knowledge about the diversity of these trajectories of vulnerability could be of great help for designing psychological interventions to better tackle this critical life event.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Evaluation of the causal pathways through which subjective norms influence mammography intention and stage of change in a national sample of women veterans

Few studies have investigated causal pathways linking psychosocial factors to each other and to screening mammography. Conflicting hypotheses exist in the theoretic literature regarding the role and importance of subjective norms, a person's perceived social pressure to perform the behavior and his/her motivation to comply. The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) hypothesizes that subjective norms directly affect intention; while the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) hypothesizes that attitudes mediate the influence of subjective norms on stage of change. No one has examined which hypothesis best predicts the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change. Two statistical methods are available for testing mediation, sequential regression analysis (SRA) and latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM); however, software to apply LVSEM to dichotomous variables like intention has only recently become available. No one has compared the methods to determine whether or not they yield similar results for dichotomous variables. ^ Study objectives were to: (1) determine whether the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change are mediated by pros and cons; and (2) compare mediation results from the SRA and LVSEM approaches when the outcome is dichotomous. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a national sample of women veterans enrolled in Project H.O.M.E. (H&barbelow;ealthy O&barbelow;utlook on the M&barbelow;ammography E&barbelow;xperience), a behavioral intervention trial. ^ Results showed that the TTM model described the causal pathways better than the TRA one; however, we found support for only one of the TTM causal mechanisms. Cons was the sole mediator. The mediated effect of subjective norms on intention and stage of change by cons was very small. These findings suggest that interventionists focus their efforts on reducing negative attitudes toward mammography when resources are limited. ^ Both the SRA and LVSEM methods provided evidence for complete mediation, and the direction, magnitude, and standard errors of the parameter estimates were very similar. Because SRA parameter estimates were not biased toward the null, we can probably assume negligible measurement error in the independent and mediator variables. Simulation studies are needed to further our understanding of how these two methods perform under different data conditions. ^

Ascertainment, meta-analysis and reporting of adverse reactions in clinical trials of antibiotics

The ascertainment and analysis of adverse reactions to investigational agents presents a significant challenge because of the infrequency of these events, their subjective nature and the low priority of safety evaluations in many clinical trials. A one year review of antibiotic trials published in medical journals demonstrates the lack of standards in identifying and reporting these potentially fatal conditions. This review also illustrates the low probability of observing and detecting rare events in typical clinical trials which include fewer than 300 subjects. Uniform standards for ascertainment and reporting are suggested which include operational definitions of study subjects. Meta-analysis of selected antibiotic trials using multivariate regression analysis indicates that meaningful conclusions may be drawn from data from multiple studies which are pooled in a scientifically rigorous manner. ^

THE EFFECT OF PERSON-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION ON ANXIETY, DEPRESSION, AND SUBJECTIVE DISTRESS OF OPTOMETRY STUDENTS

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether an incongruence between personality characteristics of individuals and concomitant charcteristics of health professional training environments on salient dimensions contributes to aspects of mental health. The dimensions examined were practical-theoretical orientation and the degree of structure-unstructure. They were selected for study as they are particularly important attributes of students and of learning environments. It was proposed that when the demand of the environment is disparate from the proclivities of the individual, strain arises. This strain was hypothesized to contribute to anxiety, depression, and subjective distress.^ Select subscales on the Omnibus Personality Inventory (OPI) were the operationalized measures for the personality component of the dimensions studied. An environmental index was developed to assess students' perceptions of the learning environment on these same dimensions. The Beck Depression Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and General Well-Being schedule measured the outcome variables.^ A congruence model was employed to determine person-environment (P-E) interaction. Scores on the scales of the OPI and the environmental index were divided into high, medium, and low based on the range of scores. Congruence was defined as a match between the level of personality need and the complementary level of the perception of the environment. Alternatively, incongruence was defined as a mismatch between the person and the environment. The consistent category was compared to the inconsistent categories by an analysis of variance procedure. Furthermore, analyses of covariance were conducted with perceived supportiveness of the learning environment and life events external to the learning environment as the covariates. These factors were considered critical influences affecting the outcome measures.^ One hundred and eighty-five students (49% of the population) at the College of Optometry at the University of Houston participated in the study. Students in all four years of the program were equally represented in the study. However, the sample differed from the total population on representation by sex, marital status, and undergraduate major.^ The results of the study did not support the hypotheses. Further, after having adjusted for perceived supportiveness and life events external to the learning environment, there were no statistically significant differences between the congruent category and incongruent categories. Means indicated than the study sample experienced significantly lower depression and subjective distress than the normative samples.^ Results are interpreted in light of their utility for future study design in the investigation of the effects of P-E interaction. Emphasized is the question of the feasibility of testing a P-E interaction model with extant groups. Recommendations for subsequent research are proposed in light of the exploratory nature of the methodology. ^

Associations of perceived body image and subjective social status with levels of physical activity in Mexican American adolescents

The current study is a secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study that examined demographic and psychosocial variables and their associations with physical activity levels in Mexican-American adolescents in Houston, Texas. Body image, subjective social status, and anxiety were the main variables of interest. The sample included 952 unrelated Mexican-American adolescents in Houston, Texas. The majority (84.2%) of the study population did not meet physical activity standards prescribed by the CDC.^ In a multivariate model controlling for age, socioeconomic status, gender, general body image, preferred body image, subjective social status, and anxiety, gender and subjective social status were found to be the strongest determinants of physical activity levels. Males and those with a high subjective social status were more likely to participate in physical activity than those with low subjective status. Lower levels of anxiety and a more positive body image were also found to be associated with higher levels of physical activity. In multivariate analyses gender and subjective social status showed the strongest associations with physical activity.^

Subjective well -being as predictor of mortality, heart disease, and obesity: Prospective evidence from the Alameda County Study

Based on the World Health Organization's (1965) definition of health, understanding of health requires understanding of positive psychological states. Subjective Well-being (SWB) is a major indicator of positive psychological states. Up to date, most studies of SWB have been focused on its distributions and determinants. However, study of its consequences, especially health consequences, is lacking. This dissertation research examined Subjective Well-being, as operationally defined by constructs drawn from the framework of Positive Psychology, and its sub-scores (Positive Feelings and Negative Feelings) as predictors of three major health outcomes—mortality, heart disease, and obesity. The research used prospective data from the Alameda County Study over 29 years (1965–1994), based on a stratified, randomized, representative sample of the general public in Alameda County, California (Baseline N = 6928). ^ Multivariate analyses (Survival analyses using sequential Cox Proportional Hazard models in the cases of mortality and heart disease, and sequential Logistic Regression analyses in the case of obesity) were performed as the main methods to evaluate the associations of the predictors and the health outcomes. The results revealed that SWB reduced risks of all-cause mortality, natural-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. Positive feelings not only had an even stronger protective effect against all-cause, natural-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but also predicted decreased unnatural-cause mortality which includes deaths from suicide, homicide, accidents, mental disorders, drug dependency, as well as alcohol-related liver diseases. These effects were significant even after adjusted for age, gender, education, and various physical health measures, and, in the case of cardiovascular mortality, obesity and health practices (alcohol consumption, smoking, and physical activities). However, these two positive psychological indicators, SWB and positive feelings, did not predict obesity. And negative feelings had no significant effect on any of the health outcomes evaluated, i.e., all-cause mortality, natural- and unnatural-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, or obesity, after covariates were controlled. These findings were discussed (1) in comparison with relevant existing studies, (2) in terms of their implications in health research and promotion, (3) in terms of the independence of positive and negative feelings, and (4) from a Positive Psychology perspective and its significance in Public Health research and practice. ^