Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for midlatitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m−2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m−2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Horizontal ridge augmentation in conjunction with or prior to implant placement in the anterior maxilla: a systematic review.

PURPOSE To systematically review clinical studies examining the survival and success rates of implants in horizontal ridge augmentation, either prior to or in conjunction with implant placement in the anterior maxilla. MATERIALS AND METHODS A literature search was undertaken up to September 2012 including clinical studies in English with ≥ 10 consecutively treated patients and a mean follow-up of at least 12 months. Two reviewers screened the pertinent articles and extracted the data. Key words focused on the outcome parameters (implant success, implant survival, horizontal bone gain, and intra- and postoperative complications) in studies utilizing either a simultaneous approach (ridge augmentation performed at the time of implant placement) or a staged approach (ridge augmentation performed prior to implant placement) were analyzed. RESULTS A total of 13 studies met the inclusion criteria, with 2 studies in the simultaneous group and 11 studies in the staged group. In the simultaneous group, survival rates of implants were 100% in both studies, with one study also reporting a 100% implant success rate. No data on horizontal bone gain were available. In the staged group, success rates of implants placed in horizontally augmented ridges ranged from 96.8% to 100% (two studies), and survival rates ranged from 93.5% to 100% (five studies). However, follow-up periods differed widely (up to 4.1 years). Mean horizontal bone gain determined at reentry (implant placement) ranged from 3.4 to 5.0 mm with large overall variations (0 to 9.8 mm, five studies). Intraoperative complications were not reported. Postsurgical complications included mainly mucosal dehiscences (five studies), and, occasionally, complete failures of block grafts were described in one study. CONCLUSIONS Staged and simultaneous augmentation procedures in the anterior maxilla are both associated with high implant success and survival rates. The level of evidence, however, is better for the staged approach than for the simultaneous one.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.

Influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, retention in the cohort, and antiretroviral therapy, in participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES We studied the influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, dropout rate, and the course of antiretroviral therapy (ART), in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS Cohort participants, registered prior to April 2007 and with at least one drug use questionnaire completed until May 2013, were categorized according to their self-reported drug use behaviour. The probabilities of death and dropout were separately analysed using multivariable competing risks proportional hazards regression models with mutual correction for the other endpoint. Furthermore, we describe the influence of drug use on the course of ART. RESULTS A total of 6529 participants (including 31% women) were followed during 31 215 person-years; 5.1% participants died; 10.5% were lost to follow-up. Among persons with homosexual or heterosexual HIV transmission, noninjecting drug use was associated with higher all-cause mortality [subhazard rate (SHR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-2.83], compared with no drug use. Also, mortality was increased among former injecting drug users (IDUs) who reported noninjecting drug use (SHR 2.34; 95% CI 1.49-3.69). Noninjecting drug use was associated with higher dropout rates. The mean proportion of time with suppressed viral replication was 82.2% in all participants, irrespective of ART status, and 91.2% in those on ART. Drug use lowered adherence, and increased rates of ART change and ART interruptions. Virological failure on ART was more frequent in participants who reported concomitant drug injections while on opiate substitution, and in current IDUs, but not among noninjecting drug users. CONCLUSIONS Noninjecting drug use and injecting drug use are modifiable risks for death, and they lower retention in a cohort and complicate ART.

Effects of Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor L-mimosine on Dental Pulp in the Presence of Advanced Glycation End Products

INTRODUCTION Proangiogenic prolyl hydroxylase (PHD) inhibitors represent a novel approach to stimulate tissue regeneration. Diabetes mellitus involves the accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs). Here we evaluated the impact of AGEs on the response of human pulp tissue to the PHD inhibitor L-mimosine (L-MIM) in monolayer cultures of dental pulp-derived cells (DPCs) and tooth slice organ cultures. METHODS In monolayer cultures, DPCs were incubated with L-MIM and AGEs. Viability was assessed based on formazan formation, live-dead staining, annexin V/propidium iodide, and trypan blue exclusion assay. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), interleukin (IL)-6, and IL-8 production was evaluated by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and immunoassays. Furthermore, expression levels of odontoblast markers were assessed, and alizarin red staining was performed. Tooth slice organ cultures were performed, and VEGF, IL-6, and IL8 levels in their supernatants were measured by immunoassays. Pulp tissue vitality and morphology were assessed by MTT assay and histology. RESULTS In monolayer cultures of DPCs, L-MIM at nontoxic concentrations increased the production of VEGF and IL-8 in the presence of AGEs. Stimulation with L-MIM decreased alkaline phosphatase levels and matrix mineralization also in the presence of AGEs, whereas no significant changes in dentin matrix protein 1 and dentin sialophosphoprotein expression were observed. In tooth slice organ cultures, L-MIM increased VEGF but not IL-6 and IL-8 production in the presence of AGEs. The pulp tissue was vital, and no signs of apoptosis or necrosis were observed. CONCLUSIONS Overall, in the presence of AGEs, L-MIM increases the proangiogenic capacity, but decreases alkaline phosphatase expression and matrix mineralization.

Impact of a communication strategy on family satisfaction in the intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND Family satisfaction of critically ill patients has gained increased interest as important indicator to evaluate the quality of care in the intensive care unit (ICU). The family satisfaction in the ICU questionnaire (FS-ICU 24) is a well-established tool to assess satisfaction in such settings. We tested the hypothesis that an intervention, aiming at improved communication between health professionals and patients' next of kin in the ICU improves family satisfaction, as assessed by FS-ICU 24. METHODS Using a multicenter before-and-after study design, we evaluated medium-term effectiveness of VALUE, a recently proposed strategy aiming at improved communication. Satisfaction was assessed using the FS-ICU 24 questionnaire. Performance-importance plots were generated in order to identify items highly correlated with overall satisfaction but with low individual score. RESULTS A total of 163 completed family questionnaires in the pre-intervention and 118 in the post-intervention period were analyzed. Following the intervention, we observed: (1) a non-significant increase in family satisfaction summary score and sub-scores; (2) no decline in any individual family satisfaction item, and (3) improvement in items with high overall impact on satisfaction but quoted with low degree of satisfaction. CONCLUSION No significant improvement in family satisfaction of critically ill adult patients could be found after implementing the VALUE strategy. Whether these results are due to insufficient training of the new strategy or a missing effect of the strategy in our socio-economic environment remains to be shown.

Impact of fee schedules and approved doctor's list on physician availability in the Texas Workers' Compensation Program

The purpose of this study was to examine and describe the changes in physician provider workforce, before and after two regulatory changes were implemented by the Texas Workers' Compensation Commission (TWCC) in August and September of 2003: Fee schedules and the Approved Doctor's List (ADL). The number and type of physicians who participated in the program after the changes went into effect were measured and compared to projections based on natural attrition. In addition, interviews with key stakeholders were conducted regarding the program changes. ^ Collectively, this evidence suggests that physician response followed the same patterns as shown in previous research. The number of physicians who continued to participate and bill the Texas workers' compensation program decreased significantly as a result of the regulatory changes. The consequences of these changes on access and quality of care need to be documented with empirical research. The availability of physicians in the workforce is linked to access to care. The type and location of physicians who remained in the system also have impact on quality and access to care. ^

Demographics of having a gun in the home in Columbia, SC as reported by women primary care patients

Objectives. To determine demographic correlates of having one or more guns in the household of women primary care patients in the southern USA. ^ Methods. All participants in this cross-sectional study were women aged 18-65 who were insured by either Medicaid or a managed care provider and had ever had an intimate sexual relationship with a male partner that lasted at least three months. Prevalence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using stratified analyses for having a gun in the home and the following demographic factors: age, race, educational attainment, marital status, employment status, and alcohol/drug use. ^ Results. Twenty six percent of households had at least one gun and 6.5% had 3 or more guns. The following demographic characteristics of women were associated with having a gun in the household: age (>40) (prevalence rate ratio [PRR] = 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1–1.8); White race (PRR = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.61–2.27); currently being employed (PRR = 1.72; 95% CI = 1.22–2.44); higher education; and being insured by an HMO (PRR = 1.92; 95% CI = 1.47–2.50). Neither the partner's unemployment nor his substance use was associated with having a gun. While White households were more likely to have a gun, the same correlates of gun ownership held for both White and African-American households; being married or living as married and higher socio-economic status (i.e. HMO insurance and being employed) were strongly correlated with gun in the household. The following were correlated with having multiple guns in the household: White race (p < 0.0001); increased age (p = 0.005); being currently married or living as married (p < 0.0001); and HMO insured status (p < 0.0001). Among those households with at least one gun, White race and married or currently living as married were associated with having 2 or more guns relative to one gun in the household. ^ Conclusions. Currently living with a man and being of higher socio-economic status were strong correlates of household gun ownership among both Whites and African-Americans. Substance use was not associated with household gun ownership. ^

A systematic review of literature on socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of dental caries

Dental caries, also known as tooth decay, are a disease of the oral cavity that affects the tooth structure and leads to the occurrence of cavities in teeth. Dental caries are one of the leading chronic diseases in the population and are very common in childhood. If not treated appropriately, dental caries have debilitating effect on the oral and general health of individuals. ^ Objectives. The aims of this review are to (1) analyze and elucidate the relationship between the social and economic determinants of health like income, education and race/ethnicity and the prevalence of dental caries and (2) identify and understand the pathways/underlying causes through which these factors affect the occurrence of dental caries. This review will provide a foundation for formulation of better oral health policies in future by identifying the key socio-economic factors and pathways affecting the prevalence of dental caries. Knowledge about these socioeconomic factors could be incorporated in the design of future policies and interventions to achieve greater benefits.^ Methods. This review includes information from all pertinent articles, reviews, surveys, reports, peer reviewed literature and web sources that were published after 2000. The selection criterion includes literature focusing on individuals between the ages of 1 to 65 years, and individuals from different subgroups of community based on income, education and race/ethnicity. The analyses of literature include identifying if a relationship between income/education/race and the prevalence of dental caries exists by comparing the prevalence of dental caries in different socio-economic groups. Also included in this review are articles that are relevant to the mechanisms/pathways through which income/education/race affect the prevalence of dental caries.^ Results. Analyses of available literature suggests that disparities in the prevalence of dental caries may be attributed to differences in income, education and race/ethnicity. Higher prevalence of dental caries was observed in African-American and Mexican-American individuals, and in people with low income and low education. The leading pathways through which the socioeconomic factors affect the prevalence of dental caries are the lack of access to dental care, lack of awareness about good oral hygiene beliefs and habits, oral health, inability to afford dental care, lack of social support to maintain oral health and lack of dental insurance.^ Conclusion. Disparities in the prevalence of dental caries exist in various socio-economic groups. The relationship between socio-economic factors and dental caries prevalence should be considered in the development of future policies and interventions that are aimed at reducing the prevalence of dental caries and enhancing oral health status.^

Improving pregnancy prevention in the Austin Independent School District: Student participation in the development of social marketing media

Pregnancy prevention is an important goal of the Austin Independent School District (AISD), but present activity is limited to utilizing a single curriculum. To effectively prevent pregnancy, a diverse range of programs and activities is needed—including media and social marketing. This project (1) reviews literature to identify best practices and characteristics of effective pregnancy prevention programs for AISD, (2) reports on the results of meetings that gathered recommendations for effective channels and media messages for pregnancy prevention among high school students in Central Texas, and (3) presents samples of social marketing media products developed for pregnancy prevention that can be used by AISD.^

The impact of parent acculturation on parental fruit and vegetable intake, child fruit and vegetable intake, and child perceived access and availability to fruits and vegetables in the home environment

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the association between parent acculturation and parental fruit and vegetable intake, child fruit and vegetable intake, and child access and availability to fruits and vegetables. Secondary data analysis was performed on a convenience sample of low-income Hispanic-identifying parents (n = 177) and children from a baseline survey from the Sprouting Healthy Kids intervention. T tests were used to examine the association between parent acculturation status (acculturated or non-acculturated) and fruit intake, vegetable intake and combined fruit and vegetable intake of both the parent and the child. T tests were also used to determine the relationship between parent acculturation and child access and availability to fruits, vegetables, and combined fruits and vegetables. Statistical significance was set at a p level of 0.05. The mean FVI for the parents and children were 3.41 servings and 2.96 servings, respectively. Statistical significance was found for the relationships between parent acculturation and parent fruit intake and parent acculturation and child fruit access. Lower acculturation of the parent was significantly related to higher fruit intake. Counter to the hypothesis, higher acculturation was found to be associated with greater access to fruits for the child. These findings suggest the necessity for not only culturally specific nutrition interventions, but the need for interventions to target behaviors for specific levels of acculturation within a culture. ^

Biomarker proxies on sediment cores in the central Arctic Ocean

Although the permanently to seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean is a unique and sensitive component in the Earth's climate system, the knowledge of its long-term climate history remains very limited due to the restricted number of pre-Quaternary sedimentary records. During Polarstern Expedition PS87/2014, we discovered multiple submarine landslides over a distance of >350 km along Lomonosov Ridge. Removal of younger sediments from steep headwalls has led to exhumation of Miocene to early Quaternary sediments close to the seafloor, allowing the retrieval of such old sediments with gravity cores. Multi-proxy biomarker analyses of these gravity cores reveal for the first time that the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean was relatively warm (4-7°C) and ice-free during summer, whereas sea ice occurred during spring and autumn/winter. A comparison of our proxy data with Miocene climate simulations seems to favour relatively high late Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These new findings from the Arctic region provide new benchmarks for groundtruthing global climate reconstructions and modeling.

Seasonal variations of contribution of large and fine fractions of phytoplankton to primary production and chlorophyll a in the Sevastopol Bay from April 1985 till March 1986

It has been shown that in the Sevastopol Bay during the year primary production and chlorophyll "a" created by picoplankton (0.45-2.5 µm) consisted on the average 20-44% of total production. It was approximately a half of the level for oligotrophic waters of the ocean. Picoplankton of waters studied is represented by eucaryotes, cell diameter of which is, as a rule, about 2-3 µm. Contribution of the finest fraction of phytoplankton (0.43-0.85 µm) to primary production and con¬tent of chlorophyll "a" was insignificant (0-4%).