Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

High-density lipoprotein, beta cells, and diabetes .

High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) exert a series of potentially beneficial effects on many cell types including anti-atherogenic actions on the endothelium and macrophage foam cells. HDLs may also exert anti-diabetogenic functions on the beta cells of the endocrine pancreas, notably by potently inhibiting stress-induced cell death and enhancing glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. HDLs have also been found to stimulate insulin-dependent and insulin-independent glucose uptake into skeletal muscle, adipose tissue, and liver. These experimental findings and the inverse association of HDL-cholesterol levels with the risk of diabetes development have generated the notion that appropriate HDL levels and functionality must be maintained in humans to diminish the risks of developing diabetes. In this article, we review our knowledge on the beneficial effects of HDLs in pancreatic beta cells and how these effects are mediated. We discuss the capacity of HDLs to modulate endoplasmic reticulum stress and how this affects beta-cell survival. We also point out the gaps in our understanding on the signalling properties of HDLs in beta cells. Hopefully, this review will foster the interest of scientists in working on beta cells and diabetes to better define the cellular pathways activated by HDLs in beta cells. Such knowledge will be of importance to design therapeutic tools to preserve the proper functioning of the insulin-secreting cells in our body.

Modelling Bone Mineral Density in Swiss Breast Cancer Patients Treated with Letrozole, Tamoxifen and Sequences of Letrozole and Tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 Study (SAKK 21/07).

Background: Bone health is a concern when treating early stage breast cancer patients with adjuvant aromatase inhibitors. Early detection of patients (pts) at risk of osteoporosis and fractures may be helpful for starting preventive therapies and selecting the most appropriate endocrine therapy schedule. We present statistical models describing the evolution of lumbar and hip bone mineral density (BMD) in pts treated with tamoxifen (T), letrozole (L) and sequences of T and L. Methods: Available dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry exams (DXA) of pts treated in trial BIG 1-98 were retrospectively collected from Swiss centers. Treatment arms: A) T for 5 years, B) L for 5 years, C) 2 years of T followed by 3 years of L and, D) 2 years of L followed by 3 years of T. Pts without DXA were used as a control for detecting selection biases. Patients randomized to arm A were subsequently allowed an unplanned switch from T to L. Allowing for variations between DXA machines and centres, two repeated measures models, using a covariance structure that allow for different times between DXA, were used to estimate changes in hip and lumbar BMD (g/cm2) from trial randomization. Prospectively defined covariates, considered as fixed effects in the multivariable models in an intention to treat analysis, at the time of trial randomization were: age, height, weight, hysterectomy, race, known osteoporosis, tobacco use, prior bone fracture, prior hormone replacement therapy (HRT), bisphosphonate use and previous neo-/adjuvant chemotherapy (ChT). Similarly, the T-scores for lumbar and hip BMD measurements were modeled using a per-protocol approach (allowing for treatment switch in arm A), specifically studying the effect of each therapy upon T-score percentage. Results: A total of 247 out of 546 pts had between 1 and 5 DXA; a total of 576 DXA were collected. Number of DXA measurements per arm were; arm A 133, B 137, C 141 and D 135. The median follow-up time was 5.8 years. Significant factors positively correlated with lumbar and hip BMD in the multivariate analysis were weight, previous HRT use, neo-/adjuvant ChT, hysterectomy and height. Significant negatively correlated factors in the models were osteoporosis, treatment arm (B/C/D vs. A), time since endocrine therapy start, age and smoking (current vs. never).Modeling the T-score percentage, differences from T to L were -4.199% (p = 0.036) and -4.907% (p = 0.025) for the hip and lumbar measurements respectively, before any treatment switch occurred. Conclusions: Our statistical models describe the lumbar and hip BMD evolution for pts treated with L and/or T. The results of both localisations confirm that, contrary to expectation, the sequential schedules do not seem less detrimental for the BMD than L monotherapy. The estimated difference in BMD T-score percent is at least 4% from T to L.

Tiller size/density compensation in grazed Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards

The objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of the tiller size/density compensation mechanism in Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards grazed by sheep under continuous stocking. Treatments corresponded to four sward steady state conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20 cm of sward surface height), maintained by sheep grazing. The experimental design was a complete randomized block with four replicates. Pasture responses evaluated include: tiller population density, tiller mass, leaf mass and leaf area per tiller, and herbage mass. Tiller volume, leaf area index, tiller leaf/stem ratio, and tiller leaf area/volume ratio were calculated and simple regression analyses between tiller population density and tiller mass were performed. Measurements were made in December, 1998, and January, April, and July, 1999. The swards showed a tiller size/density compensation mechanism in which high tiller population densities were associated with small tillers and vice-versa, except in July, 1999. Regression analyses revealed that linear coefficients were steeper than the theoretical expectation of -3/2. Increments in herbage mass were attributable to increases in tiller mass in December and January. Leaf area/volume ratio values of Tifton 85 tillers were much lower than those commonly found for temperate grass species.

Stomatal analysis of citrus somatic hybrids obtained by protoplast fusion

The objective of this work was to evaluate leaf epidermis morphological characteristics of three citrus somatic hybrids, compared to their parents. Parental and somatic hybrid young leaves were collected and processed for scanning electron microscope observations. Citrus polyploid hybrids have fewer stomata per area and these are larger compared to their diploid parental parents. No differences in internal arrangement of the stomatal cells were detected between parental plants and somatic hybrids. Additional studies may determine if these differences will influence physiological behavior of the plants in the field.

Traces of functions in Fock spaces on lattices of critical density

Following a scheme of Levin we describe the values that functions in Fock spaces take on lattices of critical density in terms of both the size of the values and a cancelation condition that involves discrete versions of the Cauchy and Beurling-Ahlfors transforms.

Photosynthetic responses of young cashew plants to varying environmental conditions

The aim of this study was to characterize gas exchange responses of young cashew plants to varying photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), temperature, vapor-pressure deficit (VPD), and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci), under controlled conditions. Daily courses of gas exchange and chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters were measured under natural conditions. Maximum CO2 assimilation rates, under optimal controlled conditions, were about 13 mmol m-2 s-1 , with light saturation around 1,000 mmol m-2 s-1. Leaf temperatures between 25ºC and 35ºC were optimal for photosynthesis. Stomata showed sensitivity to CO2, and a closing response with increasing Ci. Increasing VPD had a small effect on CO2 assimilation rates, with a small decrease above 2.5 kPa. Stomata, however, were strongly affected by VPD, exhibiting gradual closure above 1.5 kPa. The reduced stomatal conductances at high VPD were efficient in restricting water losses by transpiration, demonstrating the species adaptability to dry environments. Under natural irradiance, CO2 assimilation rates were saturated in early morning, following thereafter the PPFD changes. Transient Fv/Fm decreases were registered around 11h, indicating the occurrence of photoinhibition. Decreases of excitation capture efficiency, decreases of effective quantum yield of photosystem II, and increases in non-photochemical quenching were consistent with the occurrence of photoprotection under excessive irradiance levels.

Use of solaria to predict weed density and floristic composition in no-till cropping systems

The objective of this work was to evaluate the efficiency of a new method, developed for predicting density and floristic composition of weed communities in field crops. Based on the use of solaria (100 mm transparent plastic tarps lying on the soil) to stimulate weed seedlings emergence, the method was tested in Tandil, Argentina, from 1998 to 2001. The system involved corn and sunflower in commercial no-till system. Major weeds in the experiments included Digitaria sanguinalis, Setaria verticillata and S. viridis, which accounted for 98% of the weed community in the three years of experiments since 1998. Large numbers of Tagetes minuta, Chenopodium album and Ammi majus were present in 2001. Comparison of weed communities under solaria with communities in field crops indicated that the method is useful for predicting the presence and density of some major weed species, at both high and low densities, of individuals in areas of 10 ha using only five solaria. Low density of weed species makes the method particularly useful to help deciding the time for herbicide applications to avoid soil contamination.

In-vivo performance of high-density collagen gel tubes for urethral regeneration in a rabbit model.

Congenital malformations or injuries of the urethra can be treated using existing autologous tissue, but these procedures are sometimes associated with severe complications. Therefore, tissue engineering may be advantageous for generating urethral grafts. We evaluated engineered high-density collagen gel tubes as urethral grafts in 16 male New Zealand white rabbits. The constructs were either acellular or seeded with autologous smooth muscle cells, isolated from an open bladder biopsy. After the formation of a urethral defect by excision, the tissue-engineered grafts were interposed between the remaining urethral ends. No catheter was placed postoperatively. The animals were evaluated at 1 or 3 months by contrast urethrography and histological examination. Comparing the graft caliber to the control urethra at 3 months, a larger caliber was found in the cell-seeded grafts (96.6% of the normal caliber) than in the acellular grafts (42.3%). Histology of acellular and cell-seeded grafts did not show any sign of inflammation, and spontaneous regrowth of urothelium could be demonstrated in all grafts. Urethral fistulae, sometimes associated with stenosis, were observed, which might be prevented by urethral catheter application. High-density collagen gel tubes may be clinically useful as an effective treatment of congenital and acquired urethral pathologies.

Postsynaptic density protein PSD-95 expression in Alzheimer's disease and okadaic acid induced neuritic retraction.

In order to understand how plasticity is related to neurodegeneration, we studied synaptic proteins with quantitative immunohistochemistry in the entorhinal cortex from Alzheimer patients and age-matched controls. We observed a significant decrease in presynaptic synaptophysin and an increase in postsynaptic density protein PSD-95, positively correlated with beta amyloid and phosphorylated Tau proteins in Alzheimer cases. Furthermore, Alzheimer-like neuritic retraction was generated in okadaic acid (OA) treated SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells with no decrease in PSD-95 expression. However, in a SH-SY5Y clone with decreased expression of transcription regulator LMO4 (as observed in Alzheimer's disease) and increased neuritic length, PSD-95 expression was enhanced but did not change with OA treatment. Therefore, increased PSD-95 immunoreactivity in the entorhinal cortex might result from compensatory mechanisms, as in the SH-SY5Y clone, whereas increased Alzheimer-like Tau phosphorylation is not related to PSD-95 expression, as suggested by the OA-treated cell models.

Investigation of High Density Polyethylene Pipe for Highway Applications, HR-373, Phase 1, 1996

In the past, culvert pipes were made only of corrugated metal or reinforced concrete. In recent years, several manufacturers have made pipe of lightweight plastic - for example, high density polyethylene (HDPE) - which is considered to be viscoelastic in its structural behavior. It appears that there are several highway applications in which HDPE pipe would be an economically favorable alternative. However, the newness of plastic pipe requires the evaluation of its performance, integrity, and durability; A review of the Iowa Department of Transportation Standard Specifications for Highway and Bridge Construction reveals limited information on the use of plastic pipe for state projects. The objective of this study was to review and evaluate the use of HDPE pipe in roadway applications. Structural performance, soil-structure interaction, and the sensitivity of the pipe to installation was investigated. Comprehensive computerized literature searches were undertaken to define the state-of-the-art in the design and use of HDPE pipe in highway applications. A questionnaire was developed and sent to all Iowa county engineers to learn of their use of HDPE pipe. Responses indicated that the majority of county engineers were aware of the product but were not confident in its ability to perform as well as conventional materials. Counties currently using HDPE pipe in general only use it in driveway crossings. Originally, we intended to survey states as to their usage of HDPE pipe. However, a few weeks after initiation of the project, it was learned that the Tennessee DOT was in the process of making a similar survey of state DOT's. Results of the Tennessee survey of states have been obtained and included in this report. In an effort to develop more confidence in the pipe's performance parameters, this research included laboratory tests to determine the ring and flexural stiffness of HDPE pipe provided by various manufacturers. Parallel plate tests verified all specimens were in compliance with ASTM specifications. Flexural testing revealed that pipe profile had a significant effect on the longitudinal stiffness and that strength could not be accurately predicted on the basis of diameter alone. Realizing that the soil around a buried HDPE pipe contributes to the pipe stiffness, the research team completed a limited series of tests on buried 3 ft-diameter HDPE pipe. The tests simulated the effects of truck wheel loads above the pipe and were conducted with two feet of cover. These tests indicated that the type and quality of backfill significantly influences the performance of HDPE pipe. The tests revealed that the soil envelope does significantly affect the performance of HDPE pipe in situ, and after a certain point, no additional strength is realized by increasing the quality of the backfill.

Basic density and pulp yield relationship with some chemical parameters in eucalyptus trees

The objective of this work was to evaluate the use of basic density and pulp yield correlations with some chemical parameters, in order to differentiate an homogeneous eucalyptus tree population, in terms of its potential for pulp production or some other technological applications. Basic density and kraft pulp yield were determined for 120 Eucalyptus globulus trees, and the values were plotted as frequency distributions. Homogenized samples from the first and fourth density quartiles and first and fourth yield quartiles were submitted to total phenols, total sugars and methoxyl group analysis. Syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) and syringaldehyde/vanillin (S/V) ratios were determined on the kraft lignins from wood of the same quartiles. The results show the similarity between samples from high density and low yield quartiles, both with lower S/G (3.88-4.12) and S/V (3.99-4.09) ratios and higher total phenols (13.3-14.3 g gallic acid kg-1 ). Woods from the high yield quartile are statistically distinguished from all the others because of their higher S/G (5.15) and S/V (4.98) ratios and lower total phenols (8.7 g gallic acid kg-1 ). Methoxyl group and total sugars parameters are more adequate to distinguish wood samples with lower density.

Effect of Density on Marshall Stability of Hot-Mix Asphaltic Concrete, MLR-82-01, 1982

The Iowa D.O.T. specifications do not require 100 percent of 50 blow Marshall density (generally 94%) for field compaction. However, stabilities are determined in the Laboratory on specimens compacted to 100 percent of Marshall density. The purpose of this study is to determine the stabilities of specimens compacted to various densities which are below 100 percent of the 50 blow Marshall density.

Stomatal conductance of maize under water and nitrogen deficits

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of drought and nitrogen (N) stresses on stomatal conductance of three maize cultivars grown in the field. The stomatal conductance of Sol da Manhã variety (BRS 4157) and Pioneer 6875 hybrid, under drought and high N, was lower than under drought and low N, which indicates drought tolerance, since these cultivars did not exhibit reduction in grain yield by drought, as observed for Amarelão variety, which flowered under more severe drought. 'Sol da Manhã' exhibited shorter anthesis-silking interval under high N than under low N, an additional indication of tolerance.