995 resultados para Statistical decision


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Current diagnostic methods for assessing the severity of articular cartilage degenerative conditions, such as osteoarthritis, are inadequate. There is also a lack of techniques that can be used for real-time evaluation of the tissue during surgery to inform treatment decision and eliminate subjectivity. This book, derived from Dr Afara’s doctoral research, presents a scientific framework that is based on near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for facilitating the non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage health relative to its structural, functional, and mechanical properties. This development is a component of the ongoing research on advanced endoscopic diagnostic techniques in the Articular Cartilage Biomechanics Research Laboratory of Professor Adekunle Oloyede at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane Australia.

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Infrastructure forms a vital component in supporting today’s way of life and has a significant role or impact on economic, environmental and social outcomes of the region around it. The design, construction and operation of such assets are a multi-billion dollar industry in Australia alone. Another issue that will play a major role in our way life is that of climate change and the greater concept of sustainability. With limited resources and a changing natural world it is necessary for infrastructure to be developed and maintained in a manner that is sustainable. In order to achieve infrastructure sustainability in operations it is necessary for there to be: a sustainability assessment scheme that provides a scientifically sound and realistic approach to measuring an assets level of sustainability; and, systems and tools to support the making of decisions that result in sustainable outcomes by providing feedback in a timely manner. Having these in place will then help drive the consideration of sustainability during the decision making process for infrastructure operations and maintenance. In this paper we provide two main contributions; a comparison and review of sustainability assessment schemes for infrastructure and their suitability for use in the operations phase; and, a review of decision support systems/tools in the area of infrastructure sustainability in operations. For this paper, sustainability covers not just the environment, but also finance/economic and societal/community aspects as well. This is often referred to as the Triple Bottom Line and forms one of the three dimensions of corporate sustainability [Stapledon, 2004].

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a new type of entry mode decision-making model for construction enterprises involved in international business. Design/methodology/approach – A hybrid method combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) is used to aid entry mode decisions. The AHP is used to decompose the entry mode problem into several dimensions and determine the weight of each criterion. In addition, PROMETHEE method is used to rank candidate entry modes and carry out sensitivity analyses. Findings – The proposed decision-making method is demonstrated to be a suitable approach to resolve the entry mode selection decision problem. Practical implications – The research provides practitioners with a more systematic decision framework and a more precise decision method. Originality/value – The paper sheds light on the further development of entry strategies for international construction markets. It not only introduces a new decision-making model for entry mode decision making, but also provides a conceptual framework with five determinants for a construction company entry mode selection based on the unique properties of the construction industry.

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The need for a house rental model in Townsville, Australia is addressed. Models developed for predicting house rental levels are described. An analytical model is built upon a priori selected variables and parameters of rental levels. Regression models are generated to provide a comparison to the analytical model. Issues in model development and performance evaluation are discussed. A comparison of the models indicates that the analytical model performs better than the regression models.

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Compression ignition (CI) engine design is subject to many constraints which presents a multi-criteria optimisation problem that the engine researcher must solve. In particular, the modern CI engine must not only be efficient, but must also deliver low gaseous, particulate and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions so that its impact on urban air quality, human health, and global warming are minimised. Consequently, this study undertakes a multi-criteria analysis which seeks to identify alternative fuels, injection technologies and combustion strategies that could potentially satisfy these CI engine design constraints. Three datasets are analysed with the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations and Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (PROMETHEE-GAIA) algorithm to explore the impact of 1): an ethanol fumigation system, 2): alternative fuels (20 % biodiesel and synthetic diesel) and alternative injection technologies (mechanical direct injection and common rail injection), and 3): various biodiesel fuels made from 3 feedstocks (i.e. soy, tallow, and canola) tested at several blend percentages (20-100 %) on the resulting emissions and efficiency profile of the various test engines. The results show that moderate ethanol substitutions (~20 % by energy) at moderate load, high percentage soy blends (60-100 %), and alternative fuels (biodiesel and synthetic diesel) provide an efficiency and emissions profile that yields the most “preferred” solutions to this multi-criteria engine design problem. Further research is, however, required to reduce Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) emissions with alternative fuels, and to deliver technologies that do not significantly reduce the median diameter of particle emissions.

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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore women's decision-making about the balance of risks and benefits of taking hormone replacement therapy (HRT) based on the latest evidence from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial of combined HRT. METHODS: Women aged 50-69 years, who were eligible for the Women's International Study of long Duration Oestrogen after Menopause (WISDOM) trial, were invited to participate in one of eight focus groups. Participants were asked to discuss their views about taking HRT based on the latest international evidence. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Eighty-two women participated overall. Qualitative content analysis was applied to the discussion transcripts. Women regarded the decisions they make about taking HRT as highly personal, and, for women currently taking HRT, the overwhelming reason for continuation was perceived improvement in quality of life regardless of either the risks or the benefits in the longer term.

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Sophisticated models of human social behaviour are fast becoming highly desirable in an increasingly complex and interrelated world. Here, we propose that rather than taking established theories from the physical sciences and naively mapping them into the social world, the advanced concepts and theories of social psychology should be taken as a starting point, and used to develop a new modelling methodology. In order to illustrate how such an approach might be carried out, we attempt to model the low elaboration attitude changes of a society of agents in an evolving social context. We propose a geometric model of an agent in context, where individual agent attitudes are seen to self-organise to form ideologies, which then serve to guide further agent-based attitude changes. A computational implementation of the model is shown to exhibit a number of interesting phenomena, including a tendency for a measure of the entropy in the system to decrease, and a potential for externally guiding a population of agents towards a new desired ideology.

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The impacts of online collaboration and networking among consumers on social media (SM) websites which are featuring user generated content in a form of product reviews, ratings and recommendations (PRRR) as an emerging information source is the focus of this research. The proliferation of websites where consumers are able to post the PRRR and share them with other consumers has altered the marketing environment in which companies, marketers and advertisers operate. This cross-sectional study explored consumers’ attitudes and behaviour toward various information sources (IS), used in the information search phase of the purchasing decision-making process. The study was conducted among 300 international consumers. The results were showing that personal and public IS were far more reliable than commercial. The findings indicate that traditional marketing tools are no longer viable in the SM milieu.

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A theoretical framework for a construction management decision evaluation system for project selection by means of a literature review. The theory is developed by the examination of the major factors concerning the project selection decision from a deterministic viewpoint, where the decision-maker is assumed to possess 'perfect knowledge' of all the aspects involved. Four fundamental project characteristics are identified together with three meaningful outcome variables. The relationship within and between these variables are considered together with some possible solution techniques. The theory is next extended to time-related dynamic aspects of the problem leading to the implications of imperfect knowledge and a non­deterministic model. A solution technique is proposed in which Gottinger's sequential machines are utilised to model the decision process,

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Reports of immoral marketing practices i n the construction industry attract political, media and public but not much academic interest. This paper adopts a behavioural perspective and proposes a model for applying marketing ethics concepts and methods in the study of collusion in the construction contract market. An extensive multidisciplinary review of existing literature identified a lack of adequate conceptualisation of the mechanisms and decision making factors of collusive tendering. The process of developing the model is detailed in this paper. The objectives and methodology of the research project that tested the model are also outlined. The paper concludes with a brief note on the contributions and application of the proposed model.

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Two approaches are described, which aid the selection of the most appropriate procurement arrangements for a building project. The first is a multi-attribute technique based on the National Economic Development Office procurement path decision chart. A small study is described in which the utility factors involved were weighted by averaging the scores of five 'experts' for three hypothetical building projects. A concordance analysis is used to provide some evidence of any abnormal data sources. When applied to the study data, one of the experts was seen to be atypical. The second approach is by means of discriminant analysis. This was found to provide reasonably consistent predictions through three discriminant functions. The analysis also showed the quality criteria to have no significant impact on the decision process. Both approaches provided identical and intuitively correct answers in the study described. Some concluding remarks are made on the potential of discriminant analysis for future research and development in procurement selection techniques.

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In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.

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Vacuum circuit breaker (VCB) overvoltage failure and its catastrophic failures during shunt reactor switching have been analyzed through computer simulations for multiple reignitions with a statistical VCB model found in the literature. However, a systematic review (SR) that is related to the multiple reignitions with a statistical VCB model does not yet exist. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze and explore the multiple reignitions with a statistical VCB model. It examines the salient points, research gaps and limitations of the multiple reignition phenomenon to assist with future investigations following the SR search. Based on the SR results, seven issues and two approaches to enhance the current statistical VCB model are identified. These results will be useful as an input to improve the computer modeling accuracy as well as the development of a reignition switch model with point-on-wave controlled switching for condition monitoring

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The construction of menopause as a long-term risk to health and the adoption of discourses of prevention has made necessary a decision by women about medical treatment; specifically regarding the use of hormone replacement therapy. In a study of general practitioners’ accounts of menopause and treatment in Australia, women's ‘choice’, ‘informed decision-making’ and ‘empowerment’ were key themes through which primary medical care for women at menopause was presented. These accounts create a position for women defined by the concept of individual choice and an ethic of autonomy. These data are a basis for theorising more generally in this paper. We critically examine the construct of ‘informed decision-making’ in relation to several approaches to ethics including bioethics and a range of feminist ethics. We identify the intensification of power relations produced by an ethic of autonomy and discuss the ways these considerations inform a feminist ethics of decision-making by women. We argue that an ‘ethic of autonomy’ and an ‘offer of choice’ in relation to health care for women at menopause, far from being emancipatory, serves to intensify power relations. The dichotomy of choice, to take or not to take hormone replacement therapy, is required to be a choice and is embedded in relations of power and bioethical discourse that construct meanings about what constitutes decision-making at menopause. The deployment of the principle of autonomy in medical practice limits decision-making by women precisely because it is detached from the construction of meaning and the self and makes invisible the relations of power of which it is a part.

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Over the past two decades medical researchers and modernist feminist researchers have contested the meaning of menopause. In this article we examine various meanings of menopause in major medical and feminist literature and the construction of menopause in a semi-structured interview study of general practitioners in rural South Australia. Three discursive themes are identified in these interviews; (i) the hormonal menopause – symptoms, risk, prevention; (ii) the informed menopausal woman; and (iii) decision-making and hormone replacement therapy. By using the discourse of prevention, general practitioners construct menopause in relation to women's health care choices, empowerment and autonomy. We argue that the ways in which these concepts are deployed by general practitioners in this study produces and constrains the options available to women. The implications of these general practitioner accounts are discussed in relation to the proposition that medical and feminist descriptions of menopause posit alternative but equally-fixed truths about menopause and their relationship with the range of responses available to women at menopause. Social and cultural explanations of disease causality (c.f.Germov 1998, Hardey 1998) are absent from the new menopause despite their being an integral part of the framework of the women's health movement and health promotion drawn on by these general practitioners. Further, the shift of responsibility for health to the individual woman reinforces practice claims to empower women, but oversimplifies power relations and constructs menopause as a site of self-surveillance. The use of concepts from the women's health movement and health promotion have nevertheless created change in both the positioning of women as having ‘choices’ and the positioning of some general practitioners in terms of greater information provision to women and an attention to the woman's autonomy. In conclusion, we propose that a new menopause has evolved from a discursive shift in medicine and that there exists within this new configuration, claiming the empowerment of women as an integral part of health care for menopause, the possibility for change in medical practice which will broaden, strengthen, and maintain this position.