Decision‐Making in Public Good Dilemmas: Theory and Agent‐Based Simulation

In many real world contexts individuals find themselves in situations where they have to decide between options of behaviour that serve a collective purpose or behaviours which satisfy one’s private interests, ignoring the collective. In some cases the underlying social dilemma (Dawes, 1980) is solved and we observe collective action (Olson, 1965). In others social mobilisation is unsuccessful. The central topic of social dilemma research is the identification and understanding of mechanisms which yield to the observed cooperation and therefore resolve the social dilemma. It is the purpose of this thesis to contribute this research field for the case of public good dilemmas. To do so, existing work that is relevant to this problem domain is reviewed and a set of mandatory requirements is derived which guide theory and method development of the thesis. In particular, the thesis focusses on dynamic processes of social mobilisation which can foster or inhibit collective action. The basic understanding is that success or failure of the required process of social mobilisation is determined by heterogeneous individual preferences of the members of a providing group, the social structure in which the acting individuals are contained, and the embedding of the individuals in economic, political, biophysical, or other external contexts. To account for these aspects and for the involved dynamics the methodical approach of the thesis is computer simulation, in particular agent-based modelling and simulation of social systems. Particularly conductive are agent models which ground the simulation of human behaviour in suitable psychological theories of action. The thesis develops the action theory HAPPenInGS (Heterogeneous Agents Providing Public Goods) and demonstrates its embedding into different agent-based simulations. The thesis substantiates the particular added value of the methodical approach: Starting out from a theory of individual behaviour, in simulations the emergence of collective patterns of behaviour becomes observable. In addition, the underlying collective dynamics may be scrutinised and assessed by scenario analysis. The results of such experiments reveal insights on processes of social mobilisation which go beyond classical empirical approaches and yield policy recommendations on promising intervention measures in particular.

The use of public participation and economic appraisal for public involvement in large-scale hydropower projects: Case study of the Nam Theun 2 Hydropower Project

Gaining public acceptance is one of the main issues with large-scale low-carbon projects such as hydropower development. It has been recommended by the World Commission on Dams that to gain public acceptance, publicinvolvement is necessary in the decision-making process (WCD, 2000). As financially-significant actors in the planning and implementation of large-scale hydropowerprojects in developing country contexts, the paper examines the ways in which publicinvolvement may be influenced by international financial institutions. Using the casestudy of the NamTheun2HydropowerProject in Laos, the paper analyses how publicinvolvement facilitated by the Asian Development Bank had a bearing on procedural and distributional justice. The paper analyses the extent of publicparticipation and the assessment of full social and environmental costs of the project in the Cost-Benefit Analysis conducted during the projectappraisal stage. It is argued that while efforts were made to involve the public, there were several factors that influenced procedural and distributional justice: the late contribution of the Asian Development Bank in the projectappraisal stage; and the issue of non-market values and discount rate to calculate the full social and environmental costs.

Del plan a la realidad: gobernanza y toma de decisiones en los procesos de regeneración urbana. El caso de Boston = From plan to reality: governance and decision-making in urban regeneration processes in Boston

En las últimas tres décadas, las dinámicas de restructuración económica a nivel global han redefinido radicalmente el papel de las ciudades. La transición del keynesianismo al neoliberalismo ha provocado un cambio en las políticas urbanas de los gobiernos municipales, que han abandonado progresivamente las tareas de regulación y redistribución para centrarse en la promoción del crecimiento económico y la competitividad. En este contexto, muchas voces críticas han señalado que la regeneración urbana se ha convertido en un vehículo de extracción de valor de la ciudad y está provocando la expulsión de los ciudadanos más vulnerables. Sin embargo, la regeneración de áreas consolidadas supone también una oportunidad de mejora de las condiciones de vida de la población residente, y es una política necesaria para controlar la expansión de la ciudad y reducir las necesidades de desplazamiento, promoviendo así ciudades más sostenibles. Partiendo de la hipótesis de que la gobernanza de los procesos de regeneración urbana es clave en el resultado final de las operaciones y determina el modelo de ciudad resultante, el objetivo de esta investigación es verificar si la regeneración urbana es necesariamente un mecanismo de extracción de valor o si puede mejorar la calidad de vida en las ciudades a través de la participación de los ciudadanos. Para ello, propone un marco de análisis del proceso de toma de decisiones en los planes de regeneración urbana y su impacto en los resultados de los planes, tomando como caso de estudio la ciudad de Boston, que desde los años 1990 trata de convertirse en una “ciudad de los barrios”, fomentando la participación ciudadana al tiempo que se posiciona en la escena económica global. El análisis se centra en dos operaciones de regeneración iniciadas a finales de los años 1990. Por un lado, el caso de Jackson Square nos permite comprender el papel de la sociedad civil y el tercer sector en la regeneración de los barrios más desfavorecidos, en un claro ejemplo de urbanismo “desde abajo” (bottom-up planning). Por otro, la reconversión del frente marítimo de South Boston para la construcción del Distrito de Innovación nos acerca a las grandes operaciones de regeneración urbana con fines de estímulo económico, tradicionalmente vinculadas a los centros financieros (downtown) y dirigidas por las élites gubernamentales y económicas (la growth machine) a través de procesos más tecnocráticos (top-down planning). La metodología utilizada consiste en el análisis cualitativo de los procesos de toma de decisiones y la relación entre los agentes implicados, así como de la evaluación de la implementación de dichas decisiones y su influencia en el modelo urbano resultante. El análisis de los casos permite afirmar que la gobernanza de los procesos de regeneración urbana influye decisivamente en el resultado final de las intervenciones; sin embargo, la participación de la comunidad local en la toma de decisiones no es suficiente para que el resultado de la regeneración urbana contrarreste los efectos de la neoliberalización, especialmente si se limita a la fase de planeamiento y no se extiende a la fase de ejecución, y si no está apoyada por una movilización política de mayor alcance que asegure una acción pública redistributiva. Asimismo, puede afirmarse que los procesos de regeneración urbana suponen una redefinición del modelo de ciudad, dado que la elección de los espacios de intervención tiene consecuencias sobre el equilibrio territorial de la ciudad. Los resultados de esta investigación tienen implicaciones para la disciplina del planeamiento urbano. Por una parte, se confirma la vigencia del paradigma del “urbanismo negociado”, si bien bajo discursos de liderazgo público y sin apelación al protagonismo del sector privado. Por otra parte, la planificación colaborativa en un contexto de “responsabilización” de las organizaciones comunitarias puede desactivar la potencia política de la participación ciudadana y servir como “amortiguador” hacia el gobierno local. Asimismo, la sustitución del planeamiento general como instrumento de definición de la ciudad futura por una planificación oportunista basada en la actuación en áreas estratégicas que tiren del resto de la ciudad, no permite definir un modelo coherente y consensuado de la ciudad que se desea colectivamente, ni permite utilizar el planeamiento como mecanismo de redistribución. ABSTRACT In the past three decades, the dynamics of global economic restructuring have radically redefined the role of cities. The transition from keynesianism to neoliberalism has caused a shift in local governments’ urban policies, which have progressively abandoned the tasks of regulation and redistribution to focus on promoting economic growth and competitiveness. In this context, many critics have pointed out that urban regeneration has become a vehicle for extracting value from the city and is causing the expulsion of the most vulnerable citizens. However, regeneration of consolidated areas is also an opportunity to improve the living conditions of the resident population, and is a necessary policy to control the expansion of the city and reduce the need for transportation, thus promoting more sustainable cities. Assuming that the governance of urban regeneration processes is key to the final outcome of the plans and determines the resulting city model, the goal of this research is to verify whether urban regeneration is necessarily a value extraction mechanism or if it can improve the quality of life in cities through citizens’ participation. It proposes a framework for analysis of decision-making in urban regeneration processes and their impact on the results of the plans, taking as a case study the city of Boston, which since the 1990s is trying to become a "city of neighborhoods", encouraging citizen participation, while seeking to position itself in the global economic scene. The analysis focuses on two redevelopment plans initiated in the late 1990s. The Jackson Square case allows us to understand the role of civil society and the third sector in the regeneration of disadvantaged neighborhoods, in a clear example of bottom-up planning. On the contrary, the conversion of the South Boston waterfront to build the Innovation District takes us to the big redevelopment efforts with economic stimulus’ goals, traditionally linked to downtowns and led by government and economic elites (the local “growth machine”) through more technocratic processes (top-down planning). The research is based on a qualitative analysis of the processes of decision making and the relationship between those involved, as well as the evaluation of the implementation of those decisions and their influence on the resulting urban model. The analysis suggests that the governance of urban regeneration processes decisively influences the outcome of interventions; however, community engagement in the decision-making process is not enough for the result of the urban regeneration to counteract the effects of neoliberalization, especially if it is limited to the planning phase and does not extend to the implementation of the projects, and if it is not supported by a broader political mobilization to ensure a redistributive public action. Moreover, urban regeneration processes redefine the urban model, since the choice of intervention areas has important consequences for the territorial balance of the city. The results of this study have implications for the discipline of urban planning. On the one hand, it confirms the validity of the "negotiated planning" paradigm, albeit under public leadership discourse and without a direct appeal to the leadership role of the private sector. On the other hand, collaborative planning in a context of "responsibilization" of community based organizations can deactivate the political power of citizen participation and serve as a "buffer" towards the local government. Furthermore, the replacement of comprehensive planning, as a tool for defining the city's future, by an opportunistic planning based on intervention in strategic areas that are supposed to induce change in the rest of the city, does not allow a coherent and consensual urban model that is collectively desired, nor it allows to use planning as a redistribution mechanism.

Evidence-based decision making to strengthen local governance : nutritional health interventions in Bantul and Gunungkidul

Since 2001, district governments have had the main responsibility for providing public health care in Indonesia. One of the main public health challenges facing many district governments is improving nutritional standards, particularly among poorer segments of the population. Developing effective policies and strategies for improving nutrition requires a multi-sectoral approach encompassing agricultural development policy, access to markets, food security (storage) programs, provision of public health facilities, and promotion of public awareness of nutritional health. This implies a strong need for a coordinated approach involving multiple government agencies at the district level. Due to diverse economic, agricultural, and infrastructure conditions across the country, district governments’ ought to be better placed than central government both to identify areas of greatest need for public nutrition interventions, and devise policies that reflect local characteristics. However, in the two districts observed in this study—Bantul and Gunungkidul—it was clear that local government capacity to generate, obtain and integrate evidence about local conditions into the policy-making process was still limited. In both districts, decision-makers tended to rely more on intuition,anecdote, and precedent in formulating policy. The potential for evidence-based decision making was also severely constrained by a lack of coordination and communication between agencies, and current arrangements related to central government fiscal transfers, which compel local governments to allocate funding to centrally determined programs and priorities.

Community engagement : exploring a relational approach to consultation and collaborative practice in Australia

Community engagement is increasingly being employed by Australian organizations as a key strategy to incorporate representative community opinions into decision-making. This trend is reflected by Australian local and state governments legislating for community consultation in major infrastructure projects and the increasing role of public relations practitioners to manage these programs. This study explores community engagement founded on relational theory and proposed a typology of engagement employing a relational framework. An exploratory study of 20 Australian infrastructure projects with a mandatory consultation component is analyzed applying this framework. Results indicate little discrimination between the terms engagement, consultation, and participation; however, a range of tactics supported both collaborative and advocacy approaches. The implications for adopting a relational framework for community engagement programs are discussed.

Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Geographical information systems : an effective planning and decision-making platform for community health coalitions in Australia

The development of locally-based healthcare initiatives, such as community health coalitions that focus on capacity building programs and multi-faceted responses to long-term health problems, have become an increasingly important part of the public health landscape. As a result of their complexity and the level of investment, it has become necessary to develop innovative ways to help manage these new healthcare approaches. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been suggested as one of the innovative approaches that will allow community health coalitions to better manage and plan their activities. The focus of this paper is to provide a commentary on the use of GIS as a tool for community coalitions and discuss some of the potential benefits and issues surrounding the development of these tools.

Delivering value for money in the procurement of public sector major infrastructure : a new first-order decision making model

The significant challenge faced by government in demonstrating value for money in the delivery of major infrastructure resolves around estimating costs and benefits of alternative modes of procurement. Faced with this challenge, one approach is to focus on a dominant performance outcome visible on the opening day of the asset, as the means to select the procurement approach. In this case, value for money becomes a largely nominal concept and determined by selected procurement mode delivering, or not delivering, the selected performance outcome, and notwithstanding possible under delivery on other desirable performance outcomes, as well as possibly incurring excessive transaction costs. This paper proposes a mind-set change in this particular practice, to an approach in which the analysis commences with the conditions pertaining to the project and proceeds to deploy transaction cost and production cost theory to indicate a procurement approach that can claim superior value for money relative to other competing procurement modes. This approach to delivering value for money in relative terms is developed in a first-order procurement decision making model outlined in this paper. The model developed could be complementary to the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) in terms of cross validation and the model more readily lends itself to public dissemination. As a possible alternative to the PSC, the model could save time and money in preparation of project details to lesser extent than that required in the reference project and may send a stronger signal to the market that may encourage more innovation and competition.

Participation and e-democracy how to utilize web 2.0 for policy decision-making

This paper investigates in how to utilize ICT and Web 2.0 technologies and e-democracy software for policy decision-making. It introduces a cutting edge decision-making system that integrates the practice of e-petitions, e-consultation, e-rulemaking, e-voting, and proxy voting. The paper demonstrates how under precondition of direct democracy through the use this system the collective intelligence (CI) of a population would be gathered and used throughout the policy process.

A conceptual decision-making framework for the delivery of innovative change in organisations

Research found that today’s organisations are increasingly aware of the potential barriers and perceived challenges associated with the successful delivery of change — including cultural and sub-cultural indifferences; financial constraints; restricted timelines; insufficient senior management support; fragmented key stakeholder commitment; and inadequate training. The delivery and application of Innovative Change (see glossary) within a construction industry organisation tends to require a certain level of ‘readiness’. This readiness is the combination of an organisation’s ability to part from undertakings that may be old, traditional, or inefficient; and then being able to readily adopt a procedure or initiative which is new, improved, or more efficient. Despite the construction industry’s awareness of the various threats and opportunities associated with the delivery of change, research found little attention is currently given to develop a ‘decision-making framework’ that comprises measurable elements (dynamics) that may assist in more accurately determining an organisation’s level of readiness or ability to deliver innovative change. To resolve this, an initial Background Literature Review in 2004 identified six such dynamics, those of Change, Innovation, Implementation, Culture, Leadership, and Training and Education, which were then hypothesised to be key components of a ‘Conceptual Decision-making Framework’ (CDF) for delivering innovative change within an organisation. To support this hypothesis, a second (more extensive) Literature Review was undertaken from late 2007 to mid 2009. A Delphi study was embarked on in June 2008, inviting fifteen building and construction industry members to form a panel and take part in a Delphi study. The selection criterion required panel members to have senior positions (manager and above) within a recognised field or occupation, and to have experience, understanding and / or knowledge in the process of delivering change within organisations. The final panel comprised nine representatives from private and public industry organisations and tertiary / research and development (R&D) universities. The Delphi study developed, distributed and collated two rounds of survey questionnaires over a four-month period, comprising open-ended and closed questions (referred to as factors). The first round of Delphi survey questionnaires were distributed to the panel in August 2008, asking them to rate the relevancy of the six hypothesised dynamics. In early September 2008, round-one responses were returned, analysed and documented. From this, an additional three dynamics were identified and confirmed by the panel as being highly relevant during the decision-making process when delivering innovative change within an organisation. The additional dynamics (‘Knowledge-sharing and Management’; ‘Business Process Requirements’; and ‘Life-cycle Costs’) were then added to the first six dynamics and used to populate the second (final) Delphi survey questionnaire. This was distributed to the same nine panel members in October 2008, this time asking them to rate the relevancy of all nine dynamics. In November 2008, round-two responses were returned, analysed, summarised and documented. Final results confirmed stability in responses and met Delphi study guidelines. The final contribution is twofold. Firstly, findings confirm all nine dynamics as key components of the proposed CDF for delivering innovative change within an organisation. Secondly, the future development and testing of an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Process’ (ICDP) is proposed, one that is underpinned by an ‘Innovative Change Decision-making Framework’ (ICDF), an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Analysis’ (ICDA) program, and an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Guide’ (ICDG).

Prosecutorial guidelines for voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide : autonomy, public confidence and high quality decision-making

This article proposes offence-specific guidelines for how prosecutorial discretion should be exercised in cases of voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide. Similar guidelines have been produced in England and Wales but we consider them to be deficient in a number of respects, including that they lack a set of coherent guiding principles. In light of these concerns, we outline an approach to constructing alternative guidelines that begins with identifying three guiding principles that we argue are appropriate for this purpose: respect for autonomy, the need for high quality prosecutorial decision-making and the importance of public confidence in that decision-making.

Decision-making about hormone replacement therapy by women in England and Scotland

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore women's decision-making about the balance of risks and benefits of taking hormone replacement therapy (HRT) based on the latest evidence from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial of combined HRT. METHODS: Women aged 50-69 years, who were eligible for the Women's International Study of long Duration Oestrogen after Menopause (WISDOM) trial, were invited to participate in one of eight focus groups. Participants were asked to discuss their views about taking HRT based on the latest international evidence. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Eighty-two women participated overall. Qualitative content analysis was applied to the discussion transcripts. Women regarded the decisions they make about taking HRT as highly personal, and, for women currently taking HRT, the overwhelming reason for continuation was perceived improvement in quality of life regardless of either the risks or the benefits in the longer term.