Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.

The response of phytoplankton to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Inter-annual variability in the timing of phytoplankton spring bloom and phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic Ocean was quantified using ocean color data and continuous plankton recorder (CPR) data. This variability was related to the North Atlantic Oscillation using correlation analysis and multivariate auto-regression models. The initiation of the spring bloom derived from CPR phytoplankton color index data is similar to that derived from satellite chlorophyll, and exhibits a nominal correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The extrapolated spring bloom timing suggested later initiation of blooms in the mid-1980s and earlier initiation of blooms in the 1990s. The climatological phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic is dominated by diatoms, except for a shift in community composition favoring dinoflagellates in August. The ratio of diatoms to total phytoplankton abundance and the ratio of dinoflagellates to total phytoplankton abundance are both closely correlated with the NAO and SST. The extended time series of phytoplankton community structure between 1985 and 2009, deduced from the time series of SST and NAO over the same interval, showed a decadal shift away from diatoms towards dinoflagellates. The linkages between the NAO, and changes in stratification and phytoplankton processes occur over a larger scale than previously observed.

Phenological trends and trophic mismatch across multiple levels of a North Sea pelagic food web

Differential phenological responses to climate among species are predicted to disrupt trophic interactions, but datasets to evaluate this are scarce. We compared phenological trends for species from 4 levels of a North Sea food web over 24 yr when sea surface temperature (SST) increased significantly. We found little consistency in phenological trends between adjacent trophic levels, no significant relationships with SST, and no significant pairwise correlations between predator and prey phenologies, suggesting that trophic mismatching is occurring. Finer resolution data on timing of peak energy demand (mid-chick-rearing) for 5 seabird species at a major North Sea colony were compared to modelled daily changes in length of 0-group (young of the year) lesser sandeels Ammodytes marinus. The date at which sandeels reached a given threshold length became significantly later during the study. Although the phenology of all the species except shags also became later, these changes were insufficient to keep pace with sandeel length, and thus mean length (and energy value) of 0-group sandeels at mid-chick-rearing showed net declines. The magnitude of declines in energy value varied among the seabirds, being more marked in species showing no phenological response (shag, 4.80 kJ) and in later breeding species feeding on larger sandeels (kittiwake, 2.46 kJ) where, due to the relationship between sandeel length and energy value being non-linear, small reductions in length result in relatively large reductions in energy. However, despite the decline in energy value of 0-group sandeels during chick-rearing, there was no evidence of any adverse effect on breeding success for any of the seabird species. Trophic mismatch appears to be prevalent within the North Sea pelagic food web, suggesting that ecosystem functioning may be disrupted.

Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Large-scale biogeographical changes in the biodiversity of a key zooplankton group (calanoid copepods) were detected in the north-eastern part of the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas over the period 1960–1999. These findings provided key empirical evidence for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems at the regional to oceanic scale. Since 1999, global temperatures have continued to rise in the region. Here, we extend the analysis to the period 1958–2005 using all calanoid copepod species assemblages (nine species assemblages based on an analysis including a total of 108 calanoid species or taxa) and show that this phenomenon has been reinforced in all regions. Our study reveals that the biodiversity of calanoid copepods are responding quickly to sea surface temperature (SST) rise by moving geographically northward at a rapid rate up to about 23.16 km yr−1. Our analysis suggests that nearly half of the increase in sea temperature in the northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas is related to global temperature rises (46.35% of the total variance of temperature) while changes in both natural modes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation explain 26.45% of the total variance of temperature. Although some SST isotherms have moved northwards by an average rate of up to 21.75 km yr−1 (e.g. the North Sea), their movement cannot fully quantify all species assemblage shifts. Furthermore, the observed rates of biogeographical movements are far greater than those observed in the terrestrial realm. Here, we discuss the processes that may explain such a discrepancy and suggest that the differences are mainly explained by the fluid nature of the pelagic domain, the life cycle of the zooplankton and the lesser anthropogenic influence (e.g. exploitation, habitat fragmentation) on these organisms. We also hypothesize that despite changes in the path and intensity of the oceanic currents that may modify quickly and greatly pelagic zooplankton species, these organisms may reflect better the current impact of climate warming on ecosystems as terrestrial organisms are likely to significantly lag the current impact of climate change.

Relationships between North Atlantic salmon, plankton and hydroclimatic change in the Northeast Atlantic

The abundance of wild salmon (Salmo salar) in the North Atlantic has declined markedly since the late 1980s as a result of increased marine mortality that coincided with a marked rise in sea temperature in oceanic foraging areas. There is substantial evidence to show that temperature governs the growth, survival, and maturation of salmon during their marine migrations through either direct or indirect effects. In an earlier study (2003), long-term changes in three trophic levels (salmon, zooplankton, and phytoplankton) were shown to be correlated significantly with sea surface temperature (SST) and northern hemisphere temperature (NHT). A sequence of trophic changes ending with a stepwise decline in the total nominal catch of North Atlantic salmon (regime shift in ∼1986/1987) was superimposed on a trend to a warmer dynamic regime. Here, the earlier study is updated with catch and abundance data to 2010, confirming earlier results and detecting a new abrupt shift in ∼1996/1997. Although correlations between changes in salmon, plankton, and temperature are reinforced, the significance of the correlations is reduced because the temporal autocorrelation of time-series substantially increased due to a monotonic trend in the time-series, probably related to global warming. This effect may complicate future detection of effects of climate change on natural systems.

Diet of auklet chicks in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska: similarity among islands, interspecies overlap, and relationships to ocean climate

Seabirds are effective samplers of the marine environment, and can be used to measure resource partitioning among species and sites via food loads destined for chicks. We examined the composition, overlap, and relationships to changing climate and oceanography of 3,216 food loads from Least, Crested, and Whiskered Auklets (Aethia pusilla, A. cristatella, A. pygmaea) breeding in Alaska during 1994–2006. Meals comprised calanoid copepods (Neocalanus spp.) and euphausiids (Thysanoessa spp.) that reflect secondary marine productivity, with no difference among Buldir, Kiska, and Kasatochi islands across 585 km of the Aleutian Islands. Meals were very similar among species (mean Least–Crested Auklet overlap C = 0.68; Least–Whiskered Auklet overlap C = 0.96) and among sites, indicating limited partitioning of prey resources for auklets feeding chicks. The biomass of copepods and euphausiids in Least and Crested Auklet food loads was related negatively to the summer (June–July–August) North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, while in Whiskered Auklet food loads, this was negatively related to the winter (December–January–February) Pacific Decadal Oscillation, both of which track basin-wide sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We found a significant quadratic relationship between the biomass of calanoid copepods in Least Auklet food loads at all three study sites and summer (June–July) SST, with maximal copepod biomass between 3–6°C (r 2 = 0.71). Outside this temperature range, zooplankton becomes less available to auklets through delayed development. Overall, our results suggest that auklets are able to buffer climate-mediated bottom-up forcing of demographic parameters like productivity, as the composition of chick meals has remained constant over the course of our study.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific

Phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific were investigated for 2001–2009, based on satellite ocean colour data and the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We estimated the timing of the spring bloom based on the cumulative sum satellite chlorophyll adata, and found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-related interannual SST anomaly in spring significantly affected phytoplankton phenology. The bloom occurred either later or earlier in years of positive or negative PDO (indicating cold and warm conditions, respectively). Phytoplankton composition in the early summer varied depending on the magnitude of seasonal SST increases, rather than the SST value itself. Interannual variations in diatom abundance and the relative abundance of non-diatoms were positively correlated with SST increases for March–April and May–July, respectively, suggesting that mixed layer environmental factors, such as light availability and nutrient stoichiometry, determine shifts in phytoplankton community structure. Our study emphasised the importance of the interannual variation in climate-induced warm–cool cycles as one of the key mechanisms linking climatic forcing and lower trophic level ecosystems.

Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature

Spatiotemporal variation in seabird demographic parameters is often pronounced and may be an important source of information on the state of marine ecosystems. Black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in Britain and Ireland show strong regional structure in breeding productivity, and both temporal and spatial variation are probably related to abundance of the principal prey of breeding kittiwakes, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. Annual regional estimates of sandeel abundance do not exist, prohibiting direct tests of this hypothesis. We examined relationships between kittiwake breeding productivity and 2 potential proxies of sandeel abundance, winter sea surface temperature (SST) and abundance of Calanus copepods, within and among 6 regions in Britain and Ireland from 1986 to 2004. Means and trends in winter SST differed among regions, with higher means and less pronounced increasing trends in western (Atlantic) regions than in eastern (North Sea) regions. A negative relationship between breeding productivity and winter SST in the previous year was found within 2 regions (East Scotland and Orkney), as well as in a cross-regional analysis. Results were inconclusive for Calanus abundance, with a positive relationship in East Scotland and negative in Orkney. These results demonstrate that although a single environmental driver (SST) is related to both within- and between-region variation in a key demographic parameter, regional heterogeneity in SST trends as well as the importance of other factors may lead to highly variable responses. Understanding this heterogeneity is critical for predicting long-term effects of climate change or other anthropogenic drivers on marine ecosystems.

Patterns of jellyfish abundance in the North Atlantic

A number of explanations have been advanced to account for the increased frequency and intensity at which jellyfish (pelagic cnidarians and ctenophores) blooms are being observed, most of which have been locally directed. Here, we investigate seasonal and inter-annual patterns in abundance and distribution of jellyfish in the North Atlantic Ocean to determine if there have been any system-wide changes over the period 1946–2005, by analysing records of the presence of coelenterates from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey. Peaks in jellyfish abundance are strongly seasonal in both oceanic and shelf areas: oceanic populations have a mid-year peak that is more closely related to peaks in phyto- and zooplankton, whilst the later peak of shelf populations mirrors changes in SST and reflects processes of advection and aggregation. There have been large amplitude cycles in the abundance of oceanic and shelf jellyfish (although not synchronous) over the last 60 years, with a pronounced synchronous increase in abundance in both areas over the last 10 years. Inter-annual variations in jellyfish abundance in oceanic areas are related to zooplankton abundance and temperature changes, but not to the North Atlantic Oscillation or to a chlorophyll index. The long-term inter-annual abundance of jellyfish on the shelf could not be explained by any environmental variables investigated. As multi-decadal cycles and more recent increase in jellyfish were obvious in both oceanic and shelf areas, we conclude that these are likely to reflect an underlying climatic signal (and bottom-up control) rather than any change in fishing pressure (top-down control). Our results also highlight the role of the CPR data in investigating long-term changes in jellyfish, and suggest that the cnidarians sampled by the CPR are more likely to be holoplanktic hydrozoans and not the much larger meroplanktic scyphozoans as has been suggested previously.

Southern Ocean biogeography and taxonomic resolution: what's in the name?

We examined the taxonomic resolution of zooplankton data required to identify ocean basin scale biogeographic zonation in the Southern Ocean. A 2,154 km transect was completed south of Australia. Sea surface temperature (SST) measured at 1 min intervals showed that seven physical zones were sampled. Zooplankton were collected at a spatial resolution of similar to 9.2 km with a continuous plankton recorder, identified to the highest possible taxonomic resolution and enumerated. Zooplankton assemblage similarity between samples was calculated using the Bray-Curtis index for the taxonomic levels of species, genus, family, order and class after first log(10)(x + 1) (LA) and then presence/absence (PA) transformation of abundance data. Although within and between zone sample similarity increased with decreasing taxonomic resolution, for both data transformations, cluster analysis demonstrated that the biogeographic separation of zones remained at all taxonomic levels when using LA data. ANOSIM confirmed this, detecting significant differences in zooplankton assemblage structure between all seven a priori determined physical zones for all taxonomic levels when using the LA data. In the case of the PA data for the complete data set, and both LA and PA data for a crustacean only data set, no significant differences were detected between zooplankton assemblages in the Polar frontal zone (PFZ) and inter-PFZ at any taxonomic level. Loss of information at resolutions below the species level, particularly in the PA data, prevented the separation of some zones. However, the majority of physical zones were biogeographically distinct from species level to class using both LA and PA transformations. Significant relationships between SST and zooplankton community structure, summarised as NMDS scores, at all taxonomic levels, for both LA and PA transformations, and complete and crustacean only data sets, highlighted the biogeographic relevance of low resolution taxonomic data. The retention of biogeographic information in low taxonomic resolution data shows that data sets collected with different taxonomic resolutions may be meaningfully merged for the post hoc generation of Southern Ocean time series.

Climate-induced effects on the meroplankton and the benthic-pelagic ecology of the North Sea

Analyses of long-term time series of North Sea plankton and sea surface temperature (SST) data reveal that the annual planktonic larval abundance of three benthic phyla, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Mollusca, responds positively and immediately to SST. Long-term outcomes for the planktonic abundance of these three phyla are different, however. The planktonic larvae of echinoderms and decapod crustaceans have increased in abundance from 1958 to 2005, and especially since the mid-1980s, as North Sea SST has increased. In contrast, the abundance of bivalve mollusc larvae has declined, despite the positive year-to-year relationship between temperature and bivalve larval abundance continuing to hold. We argue that the changes in meroplankton abundance, coincident with increased phytoplankton and declining holoplankton, reflect the synchronous effect of rising SST and related changes in the pelagic community on the reproduction and recruitment of many benthic marine invertebrates. Under this scenario, the long-term decline in bivalve mollusc larvae will reflect increased predation on the settled larvae and adults by benthic decapods. These alterations in the zooplankton may therefore describe an ecosystem-wide restructuring of North Sea trophic interactions.

Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

Drivers of euphausiid species abundance and numerical abundance in the Atlantic Ocean

Mid-ocean ridges are common features of the world’s oceans but there is a lack of understanding as to how their presence affects overlying pelagic biota. The Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) is a dominant feature of the Atlantic Ocean. Here, we examined data on euphausiid distribution and abundance arising from several international research programmes and from the continuous plankton recorder. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) framework to explore spatial patterns of variability in euphausiid distribution on, and at either side of, the MAR from 60°N to 55°S in conjunction with variability in a suite of biological, physical and environmental parameters. Euphausiid species abundance peaked in mid-latitudes and was significantly higher on the ridge than in adjacent waters, but the ridge did not influence numerical abundance significantly. Sea surface temperature (SST) was the most important single factor influencing both euphausiid numerical abundance and species abundance. Increases in sea surface height variance, a proxy for mixing, increased the numerical abundance of euphausiids. GAM predictions of variability in species abundance as a function of SST and depth of the mixed layer were consistent with present theories, which suggest that pelagic niche availability is related to the thermal structure of the near surface water: more deeply-mixed water contained higher euphausiid biodiversity. In addition to exposing present distributional patterns, the GAM framework enables responses to potential future and past environmental variability including temperature change to be explored.

Effects of environmental conditions on the seasonal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the North Sea

We study the spatial and seasonal variability of phytoplankton biomass (as phytoplankton color) in relation to the environmental conditions in the North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. By using only environmental fields and location as predictor variables we developed a nonparametric model (generalized additive model) to empirically explore how key environmental factors modulate the spatio-temporal patterns of the seasonal cycle of algal biomass as well as how these relate to the ,1988 North Sea regime shift. Solar radiation, as manifest through changes of sea surface temperature (SST), was a key factor not only in the seasonal cycle but also as a driver of the shift. The pronounced increase in SST and in wind speed after the 1980s resulted in an extension of the season favorable for phytoplankton growth. Nutrients appeared to be unimportant as explanatory variables for the observed spatio-temporal pattern, implying that they were not generally limiting factors. Under the new climatic regime the carrying capacity of the whole system has been increased and the southern North Sea, where the environmental changes have been more pronounced, reached a new maximum.