Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

Centennial changes in the solar wind speed and in the open solar flux

We use combinations of geomagnetic indices, based on both variation range and hourly means, to derive the solar wind flow speed, the interplanetary magnetic field strength at 1 AU and the total open solar flux between 1895 and the present. We analyze the effects of the regression procedure and geomagnetic indices used by adopting four analysis methods. These give a mean interplanetary magnetic field strength increase of 45.1 ± 4.5% between 1903 and 1956, associated with a 14.4 ± 0.7% rise in the solar wind speed. We use averaging timescales of 1 and 2 days to allow for the difference between the magnetic fluxes threading the coronal source surface and the heliocentric sphere at 1 AU. The largest uncertainties originate from the choice of regression procedure: the average of all eight estimates of the rise in open solar flux is 73.0 ± 5.0%, but the best procedure, giving the narrowest and most symmetric distribution of fit residuals, yields 87.3 ± 3.9%.

Short-term variability of solar wind number density, speed and dynamic pressure as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field components: A survey over two solar cycles

The variability of hourly values of solar wind number density, number density variation, speed, speed variation and dynamic pressure with IMF Bz and magnitude |B| has been examined for the period 1965–1986. We wish to draw attention to a strong correlation in number density and number density fluctuation with IMF Bz characterised by a symmetric increasing trend in these quantities away from Bz = 0 nT. The fluctuation level in solar wind speed is found to be relatively independent of Bz. We infer that number density and number density variability dominate in controlling solar wind dynamic pressure and dynamic pressure variability. It is also found that dynamic pressure is correlated with each component of IMF and that there is evidence of morphological differences between the variation with each component. Finally, we examine the variation of number density, speed, dynamic pressure and fluctuation level in number density and speed with IMF magnitude |B|. Again we find that number density variation dominates over solar wind speed in controlling dynamic pressure.

On the validity of single-parcel energetics to assess the importance of internal energy and compressibility effects in stratified fluids

It is often assumed on the basis of single-parcel energetics that compressible effects and conversions with internal energy are negligible whenever typical displacements of fluid parcels are small relative to the scale height of the fluid (defined as the ratio of the squared speed of sound over gravitational acceleration). This paper shows that the above approach is flawed, however, and that a correct assessment of compressible effects and internal energy conversions requires considering the energetics of at least two parcels, or more generally, of mass conserving parcel re-arrangements. As a consequence, it is shown that it is the adiabatic lapse rate and its derivative with respect to pressure, rather than the scale height, which controls the relative importance of compressible effects and internal energy conversions when considering the global energy budget of a stratied fluid. Only when mass conservation is properly accounted for is it possible to explain why available internal energy can account for up to 40 percent of the total available potential energy in the oceans. This is considerably larger than the prediction of single-parcel energetics, according to which this number should be no more than about 2 percent.

Processing speed, executive function, and age differences in remembering and knowing

A group of young (n=52, M=23.27 years) and old (n=52, M=68.62 years) adults studied two lists of semantically unrelated nouns. For one list a time of 2 s was allowed for encoding, and for the other, 5 s. A recognition test followed where participants classified their responses according to Gardiner’s (1988) remember–know procedure. Age differences for remembering and knowing were minimal in the faster 2-s encoding condition. However, in the longer 5-s encoding condition, younger persons produced significantly more remember responses, and older adults a greater number of know responses. This dissociation suggests that in the longer encoding condition, younger adults utilized a greater level of elaborative rehearsal governed by executive processes, whereas older persons employed maintenance rehearsal involving short-term memory. Statistical control procedures, however, found that independent measures of processing speed accounted for age differences in remembering and knowing and that independent measures of executive control had little influence. The findings are discussed in the light of contrasting theoretical accounts of recollective experience in old age.

An optimized auditory P300 BCI based on spatially distributed sound in different voices

In this paper, a new paradigm is presented, to improve the performance of audio-based P300 Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), by using spatially distributed natural sound stimuli. The new paradigm was compared to a conventional paradigm using spatially distributed sound to demonstrate the performance of this new paradigm. The results show that the new paradigm enlarged the N200 and P300 components, and yielded significantly better BCI performance than the conventional paradigm.

Detecting regular sound changes in linguistics as events of concerted evolution

Background: Concerted evolution is normally used to describe parallel changes at different sites in a genome, but it is also observed in languages where a specific phoneme changes to the same other phoneme in many words in the lexicon—a phenomenon known as regular sound change. We develop a general statistical model that can detect concerted changes in aligned sequence data and apply it to study regular sound changes in the Turkic language family. Results: Linguistic evolution, unlike the genetic substitutional process, is dominated by events of concerted evolutionary change. Our model identified more than 70 historical events of regular sound change that occurred throughout the evolution of the Turkic language family, while simultaneously inferring a dated phylogenetic tree. Including regular sound changes yielded an approximately 4-fold improvement in the characterization of linguistic change over a simpler model of sporadic change, improved phylogenetic inference, and returned more reliable and plausible dates for events on the phylogenies. The historical timings of the concerted changes closely follow a Poisson process model, and the sound transition networks derived from our model mirror linguistic expectations. Conclusions: We demonstrate that a model with no prior knowledge of complex concerted or regular changes can nevertheless infer the historical timings and genealogical placements of events of concerted change from the signals left in contemporary data. Our model can be applied wherever discrete elements—such as genes, words, cultural trends, technologies, or morphological traits—can change in parallel within an organism or other evolving group.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

The effect of an external auditory stimulus on postural stability of participants with cochlear implants

Postural control was evaluated in cochlear implant participants with and without amplification under several auditory paradigms. Speed of sway was recorded in each condition by means of Computerized Dynamic Posturography. Results indicate that an external sound source significantly improves balance in patients with cochlear implants.

Influence of Er,Cr : YSGG laser treatment on the microtensile bond strength of adhesives to dentin

Purpose: In light of the concept of minimally invasive dentistry, erbium lasers have been considered as an alternative technique to the use of diamond burs for cavity preparation. The purpose of this study was to assess the bonding effectiveness of adhesives to Er,Cr:YSGG laser-irradiated dentin using irradiation settings specific for cavity preparation. Materials and Methods: Fifty-four midcoronal dentin surfaces, obtained from sound human molars, were irradiated with an Er,Cr:YSGG laser or prepared with a diamond bur using a high-speed turbine. One etch-and-rinse (Optibond FL/Kerr) and three self-etching adhesives (Adper Prompt L-Pop/3M ESPE, Clearfil SE Bond/Kuraray, and Clearfil S-3 Bond/Kuraray) were used to bond the composite to dentin. The microtensile bond strength (mu TBS) was determined after 24 h of storage in water at 37 degrees C. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to determine pairwise statistical differences (p < 0.05). Prepared dentin surfaces, adhesive interfaces, and failure patterns were analyzed using a stereo microscope and Field-emission gun Scanning Electron Microscopy (Feg-SEM). Results: Significantly lower mu TBS was observed to laser-irradiated than to bur-cut dentin (p < 0.05), irrespective of the adhesive employed. Feg-SEM photomicrographs of lased dentin revealed an imbricate patterned substrate and the presence of microcracks at the dentin surface. Conclusion: Morphological alterations produced by Er,Cr:YSGG laser-irradiation adversely influence the bonding effectiveness of adhesives to dentin. Keywords: dentin, adhesion, adhesives, laser, ErCr:YSGG.

Sound waves and solitons in hot and dense nuclear matter

Assuming that nuclear matter can be treated as a perfect fluid, we study the propagation of perturbations in the baryon density. The equation of state is derived from a relativistic mean field model, which is a variant of the non-linear Walecka model. The expansion of the Euler and continuity equations of relativistic hydrodynamics around equilibrium configurations leads to differential equations for the density perturbation. We solve them numerically for linear and spherical perturbations and follow the propagation of the initial pulses. For linear perturbations we find single soliton solutions and solutions with one or more solitons followed by ""radiation"". Depending on the equation of state a strong damping may occur. We consider also the evolution of perturbations in a medium without dispersive effects. In this case we observe the formation and breaking of shock waves. We study all these equations also for matter at finite temperature. Our results may be relevant for the analysis of RHIC data. They suggest that the shock waves formed in the quark gluon plasma phase may survive and propagate in the hadronic phase. (C) 2009 Elseiver. B.V. All rights reserved.

Det personliga nätverkets funktion : Etablering och underhåll av presonliga nätverk inom ljuddesign för rörlig bild

The aim of this paper was to discover the functions and workings of personal networks and their advantages for self-employed sound designers and producers whose focus was upon the moving image (film, advertising, tv, etc). Investigations on how entrepreneurs develop their networks were made, as well as inquiries on how these networks are used for generating work. Another important aspect perused was whether or not the networks are dependent on specific geographical locations in order to function. A case study and comparative analysis was undertaken, based upon three qualitative interviews with entrepreneurs whose operations shared several similar characteristics. The results pointed out the importance of constantly making new contacts, and maintaining and managing current ones. There was no evidence that traditional marketing strategies or advertising were used by the interviewees. New commissions were often gained from former clients or acquaintances, or through referrals from them. There are definite advantages to having one's business in the geographical area where one's contacts exist. This also makes it easier to keep up these contacts for future prospects. However, it is very feasible to take on contracts, do the job, and to deliver work to clients in far away locations, due to the high speed internet connections available today.Målet med denna uppsats var att ta reda på hur personliga nätverk fungerar och verkar till fördel för egenföretagande ljuddesigers för rörlig bild (Film, Reklam och tv etc.). Hur entreprenörerna utvecklar nätverken utforskades, även hur de används för att generera arbete samt om nätverken bör vara lokaliserade på en speciell plats för att fungera. En fallstudie och komparativ analys utfördes, baserad på tre kvalitativa intervjuer med entreprenörer vars verksamheter liknade varandra på flera plan. Resultatet påvisade vikten av att hela tiden skapa nya kontakter och underhålla befintliga sådana. Inget tydde på att traditionell marknadsföring eller reklam används. Nya uppdrag uppkommer oftast genom tidigare kunder, kontakter eller rekommendationer från dessa. Det finns klara fördelar med att bedriva sin verksamhet i det område där kontakterna finns och det är även lättare att underhålla dem i dessa fall. Det är dock fullt möjligt att åta sig, utföra och leverera uppdrag för befintliga kontakter på långt håll tack vare dagens snabba internetuppkopplingar.

DC Motor Speed Control via Fuzzy / Pole Placement / PI Controller

This report presents a new way of control engineering. Dc motor speed controlled by three controllers PID, pole placement and Fuzzy controller and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each controller for different conditions under loaded and unloaded scenarios using software Matlab. The brushless series wound Dc motor is very popular in industrial application and control systems because of the high torque density, high efficiency and small size. First suitable equations are developed for DC motor. PID controller is developed and tuned in order to get faster step response. The simulation results of PID controller provide very good results and the controller is further tuned in order to decrease its overshoot error which is common in PID controllers. Further it is purposed that in industrial environment these controllers are better than others controllers as PID controllers are easy to tuned and cheap. Pole placement controller is the best example of control engineering. An addition of integrator reduced the noise disturbances in pole placement controller and this makes it a good choice for industrial applications. The fuzzy controller is introduce with a DC chopper to make the DC motor speed control smooth and almost no steady state error is observed. Another advantage is achieved in fuzzy controller that the simulations of three different controllers are compared and concluded from the results that Fuzzy controller outperforms to PID controller in terms of steady state error and smooth step response. While Pole placement controller have no comparison in terms of controls because designer can change the step response according to nature of control systems, so this controller provide wide range of control over a system. Poles location change the step response in a sense that if poles are near to origin then step response of motor is fast. Finally a GUI of these three controllers are developed which allow the user to select any controller and change its parameters according to the situation.

The functions of Japanese Sound Symbolic Words in Different Types of Texts and Their Translation

Though sound symbolic words (onomatopoeia and mimetic words, or giongo and gitaigo in Japanese) exist in other languages, it would not be so easy to compare them to those in Japanese. This is because unlike in Japanese, in many other languages (here we see English and Spanish) sound symbolic words do not have distinctive forms that separate them immediately from the rest of categories of words. In Japanese, a sound symbolic word has a radical (that is based on the elaborated Japanese sound symbolic system), and often a suffix that shows subtle nuance. Together they give the word a distinctive form that differentiates it from other categories of words, though its grammatical functions could vary, especially in the case of mimetic words (gitaigo). Without such an obvious feature, in other languages, it would not be always easy to separate sound symbolic words from the rest. These expressions are extremely common and used in almost all types of text in Japanese, but their elaborated sound symbolic system and possibly their various grammatical functions are making giongo and gitaigo one of the most difficult challenges for the foreign students and translators. Studying the translation of these expressions into other languages might give some indication related to the comparison of Japanese sound symbolic words and those in other languages. Though sound symbolic words are present in many types of texts in Japanese, their functions in traditional forms of text (letters only) and manga (Japanese comics)are different and they should be treated separately. For example, in traditional types of text such as novels, the vast majority of the sound symbolic words used are mimetic words (gitaigo) and most of them are used as adverbs, whereas in manga, the majority of the sound symbolic words used (excluding those appear within the speech bubbles) are onomatopoeias (giongo) and often used on their own (i.e. not as a part of a sentence). Naturally, the techniques used to translate these expressions in the above two types of documents differ greatly. The presentation will focus on i) grammatical functions of Japanese sound symbolic words in traditional types of texts (novels/poems) and in manga works, and ii) whether their features and functions are maintained (i.e. whether they are translated as sound symbolic words) when translated into other languages (English and Spanish). The latter point should be related to a comparison of sound symbolic words in Japanese and other languages, which will be also discussed.