Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Factors and mechanisms controlling soil organic carbon turnover in subsoils of agricultural sites

Two-third of the terrestrial C is stored in soils, and more than 50% of soil organic C (SOC) is stored in subsoils from 30 – 100 cm. Hence, subsoil is important as a source or sink for CO2 in the global carbon cycle. Especially the stable organic carbon (OC) is stored in subsoil, as several studies have shown that subsoil OC is of a higher average age than topsoil OC. However, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding the mechanisms of C sequestration and C turnover in subsoil. Three main factors are discussed, which possibly reduce carbon turnover rates in subsoil: Resource limitation, changes in the microbial community, and changes in gas conditions. The experiments conducted in this study, which aimed to elucidate the importance of the mentioned factors, focused on two neighbouring arable sites, with depth profiles differing in SOC stocks: One Colluvic Cambisol (Cam) with high SOC contents (8-12 g kg-1) throughout the profile and one Haplic Luvisol (Luv) with low SOC contents (3-4 g kg-1) below 30 cm depth. The first experiment was designed to gain more knowledge regarding the microbial community and its influence on carbon sequestration in subsoil. Soil samples were taken at four different depths on the two sites. Microbial biomass C (MBC) was determined to identify depth gradients in relation to the natural C availability. Bacterial and fungal residues as well as ergosterol were determined to quantify changes in the in the microbial community composition. Multi-substrate-induced-respiration (MSIR) was used to identify shifts in functional diversity of the microbial community. The MSIR revealed that substrate use in subsoil differed significantly from that in topsoil and also differed highly between the two subsoils, indicating a strong influence of resource limitations on microbial substrate use. Amino sugar analysis and the ratio of ergosterol to microbial biomass C showed that fungal dominance decreased with depth. The results clearly demonstrated that microbial parameters changed with depth according to substrate availability. The second experiment was an incubation experiment using subsoil gas conditions with and without the addition of C4 plant residues. Soil samples were taken from topsoil and subsoil of the two sites. SOC losses during the incubation, were not influenced by the subsoil gas conditions. Plant-derived C losses were generally stronger in the Cam (7.5 mg g-1), especially at subsoil gas conditions, than in the Luv (7.0 mg g-1). Subsoil gas conditions had no general effects on microbial measures with and without plant residue addition. However, the contribution of plant-derived MBC to total MBC was significantly reduced at subsoil gas conditions. This lead to the conclusion that subsoil gas conditions alter the metabolism of microorganisms but not the degradation of added plant residues is general. The third experiment was a field experiment carried out for two years. Mesh bags containing original soil material and maize root residues (C4 plant) were buried at three different depths at the two sites. The recovery of the soilbags took place 12, 18, and 24 months after burial. We determined the effects of these treatments on SOC, density fractions, and MBC. The mean residence time for maize-derived C was similar at all depths and both sites (403 d). MBC increased to a similar extent (2.5 fold) from the initial value to maximum value. This increase relied largely on the added maize root residues. However, there were clear differences visible in terms of the substrate use efficiency, which decreased with depth and was lower in the Luv than in the Cam. Hence freshly added plant material is highly accessible to microorganisms in subsoil and therefore equally degraded at both sites and depths, but its metabolic use was determined by the legacy of soil properties. These findings provide strong evidence that resource availability from autochthonous SOM as well as from added plant residues have a strong influence on the microbial community and its use of different substrates. However, under all of the applied conditions there was no evidence that complex substrates, i.e. plant residues, were less degraded in subsoil than in topsoil.

Effects of Soil Organic Matter Properties and Microbial Community Composition on Enzyme Activities in Cryoturbated Arctic Soils

Enzyme-mediated decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is controlled, amongst other factors, by organic matter properties and by the microbial decomposer community present. Since microbial community composition and SOM properties are often interrelated and both change with soil depth, the drivers of enzymatic decomposition are hard to dissect. We investigated soils from three regions in the Siberian Arctic, where carbon rich topsoil material has been incorporated into the subsoil (cryoturbation). We took advantage of this subduction to test if SOM properties shape microbial community composition, and to identify controls of both on enzyme activities. We found that microbial community composition (estimated by phospholipid fatty acid analysis), was similar in cryoturbated material and in surrounding subsoil, although carbon and nitrogen contents were similar in cryoturbated material and topsoils. This suggests that the microbial community in cryoturbated material was not well adapted to SOM properties. We also measured three potential enzyme activities (cellobiohydrolase, leucine-amino-peptidase and phenoloxidase) and used structural equation models (SEMs) to identify direct and indirect drivers of the three enzyme activities. The models included microbial community composition, carbon and nitrogen contents, clay content, water content, and pH. Models for regular horizons, excluding cryoturbated material, showed that all enzyme activities were mainly controlled by carbon or nitrogen. Microbial community composition had no effect. In contrast, models for cryoturbated material showed that enzyme activities were also related to microbial community composition. The additional control of microbial community composition could have restrained enzyme activities and furthermore decomposition in general. The functional decoupling of SOM properties and microbial community composition might thus be one of the reasons for low decomposition rates and the persistence of 400 Gt carbon stored in cryoturbated material.

Conversion of sub-tropical native vegetation to introduced conifer forest: Impacts on below-ground and above-ground carbon pools

Land-use change can have a major influence on soil organic carbon (SOC) and above-ground C pools. We assessed a change from native vegetation to introduced Pinus species plantations on C pools using eight paired sites. At each site we determined the impacts on 0–50 cm below-ground (SOC, charcoal C, organic matter C, particulate organic C, humic organic C, resistant organic C) and above-ground (litter, coarse woody debris, standing trees and woody understorey plants) C pools. In an analysis across the different study sites there was no significant difference (P > 0.05) in SOC or above-ground tree C stocks between paired native vegetation and pine plantations, although significant differences did exist at specific sites. SOC (calculated based on an equivalent soil mass basis) was higher in the pine plantations at two sites, higher in the native vegetation at two sites and did not differ for the other four sites. The site to site variation in SOC across the landscape was far greater than the variation observed with a change from native vegetation to introduced Pinus plantation. Differences between sites were not explained by soil type, although tree basal area was positively correlated with 0–50 cm SOC. In fact, in the native vegetation there was a significant linear relationship between above-ground biomass and SOC that explained 88.8% of the variation in the data. Fine litter C (0–25 mm diameter) tended to be higher in the pine forest than in the adjacent native vegetation and was significantly higher in the pine forest at five of the eight paired sites. Total litter C (0–100 mm diameter) increased significantly with plantation age (R2 = 0.64). Carbon stored in understorey woody plants (2.5–10 cm DBH) was higher in the native vegetation than in the adjacent pine forest. Total site C varied greatly across the study area from 58.8 Mg ha−1 at a native heathland site to 497.8 Mg ha−1 at a native eucalypt forest site. Our findings suggest that the effects of change from native vegetation to introduced Pinus sp. forest are highly site-specific and may be positive, negative, or have no influence on various C pools, depending on local site characteristics (e.g. plantation age and type of native vegetation).

Bioeconomic modelling of woody regrowth carbon offset options in productive grazing systems

Agricultural land has been identified as a potential source of greenhouse gas emissions offsets through biosequestration in vegetation and soil. In the extensive grazing land of Australia, landholders may participate in the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund and create offsets by reducing woody vegetation clearing and allowing native woody plant regrowth to grow. This study used bioeconomic modelling to evaluate the trade-offs between an existing central Queensland grazing operation, which has been using repeated tree clearing to maintain pasture growth, and an alternative carbon and grazing enterprise in which tree clearing is reduced and the additional carbon sequestered in trees is sold. The results showed that ceasing clearing in favour of producing offsets produces a higher net present value over 20 years than the existing cattle enterprise at carbon prices, which are close to current (2015) market levels (~$13 t–1 CO2-e). However, by modifying key variables, relative profitability did change. Sensitivity analysis evaluated key variables, which determine the relative profitability of carbon and cattle. In order of importance these were: the carbon price, the gross margin of cattle production, the severity of the tree–grass relationship, the area of regrowth retained, the age of regrowth at the start of the project, and to a lesser extent the cost of carbon project administration, compliance and monitoring. Based on the analysis, retaining regrowth to generate carbon income may be worthwhile for cattle producers in Australia, but careful consideration needs to be given to the opportunity cost of reduced cattle income.

Carbon losses in terrestrial hydrological pathways in sugarcane cropping systems of Australia

Climate change and carbon (C) sequestration are a major focus of research in the twenty-first century. Globally, soils store about 300 times the amount of C that is released per annum through the burning of fossil fuels (Schulze and Freibauer 2005). Land clearing and introduction of agricultural systems have led to rapid declines in soil C reserves. The recent introduction of conservation agricultural practices has not led to a reversing of the decline in soil C content, although it has minimized the rate of decline (Baker et al. 2007; Hulugalle and Scott 2008). Lal (2003) estimated the quantum of C pools in the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and oceans and reported a “missing C” component in the world C budget. Though not proven yet, this could be linked to C losses through runoff and soil erosion (Lal 2005) and a lack of C accounting in inland water bodies (Cole et al. 2007). Land management practices to minimize the microbial respiration and soil organic C (SOC) decline such as minimum tillage or no tillage were extensively studied in the past, and the soil erosion and runoff studies monitoring those management systems focused on other nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P).

From carbon markets to carbon morality: creative compounds as framing devices in online discourses on climate change mitigation

Lexical combinations of at least two roots around "carbon" as the hub, such as "carbon finance" or "carbon footprint," have recently become ubiquitous in English-speaking science, politics, and mass media. They are part of a new language evolving around the issue of climate change that can reveal how it is framed by various stakeholders. In this article, the authors study the role of these "carbon compounds" as tools of communication in different online discourses on climate change mitigation. By combining a quantitative analysis of their occurrences with a qualitative analysis of the contexts in which the compounds were used, the authors identify three clusters of compounds focused on finance, lifestyle, and attitudes and elucidate the communicative purposes to which they were put between the 1990s and the early 21st century. This approach may open up new ways of analyzing the framings of climate change mitigation initiatives in the public sphere.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

Carbon reduction activism in the UK: lexical creativity and lexical framing in the context of climate change

This article examines discourses associated with a new environmental movement, “Carbon Rationing Action Groups” (CRAGs). This case study is intended to contribute to a wider investigation of the emergence of a new type of language used to debate climate change mitigation. Advice on how to reduce one's “carbon footprint,” for example, is provided almost daily. Much of this advice is framed by the use of metaphors and “carbon compounds”—lexical combinations of at least two roots—such as “carbon finance” or “low carbon diet.” The study uses a combination of tools from frame analysis and lexical pragmatics within the general framework of ecolinguistics to compare and contrast language use on the CRAGs' website with press coverage reporting on them. The analysis shows how the use of such lexical carbon compounds enables and facilitates different types of metaphorical frames such as dieting, finance and tax paying, war time rationing, and religious imperatives in the two corpora.

Compounds, creativity and complexity in climate change communication: the case of ‘carbon indulgences’

This article deals with climate change from a linguistic perspective. Climate change is an extremely complex issue that has exercised the minds of experts and policy makers with renewed urgency in recent years. It has prompted an explosion of writing in the media, on the internet and in the domain of popular science and literature, as well as a proliferation of new compounds around the word ‘carbon’ as a hub, such as ‘carbon indulgence’, a new compound that will be studied in this article. Through a linguistic analysis of lexical and discourse formations around such ‘carbon compounds’ we aim to contribute to a broader understanding of the meaning of climate change. Lexical carbon compounds are used here as indicators for observing how human symbolic cultures change and adapt in response to environmental threats and how symbolic innovation and transmission occurs.

Environmental Dynamics of Dissolved Black Carbon in Aquatic Ecosystems

Black carbon (BC), the incomplete combustion product from biomass and fossil fuel burning, is ubiquitously found in soils, sediments, ice, water and atmosphere. Because of its polyaromatic molecular characteristic, BC is believed to contribute significantly to the global carbon budget as a slow-cycling, refractory carbon pool. However, the mass balance between global BC generation and accumulation does not match, suggesting a removal mechanism of BC to the active carbon pool, most probable in a dissolved form. The presence of BC in waters as part of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool was recently confirmed via ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry, and dissolved black carbon (DBC), a degradation product of charcoal, was found in marine and coastal environments. However, information on the loadings of DBC in freshwater environments and its global riverine flux from terrestrial systems to the oceans remained unclear. The main objectives of this study were to quantify DBC in diverse aquatic ecosystems and to determine its environmental dynamics. Surface water samples were collected from aquatic environments with a spatially significant global distribution, and DBC concentrations were determined by a chemical oxidation method coupled with HPLC detection. While it was clear that biomass burning was the main sources of BC, the translocation mechanism of BC to the dissolved phase was not well understood. Data from the regional studies and the developed global model revealed a strong positive correlation between DBC and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics, indicating a co-generation and co-translocation between soil OC and BC. In addition, a DOC-assistant DBC translocation mechanism was identified. Taking advantage of the DOC-DBC correlation model, a global riverine DBC flux to oceans on the order of 26.5 Mt C yr-1 (1 Mt = 1012 g) was determined, accounting for 10.6% of the global DOC flux. The results not only indicated that DOC was an important environmental intermediate for BC transfer and storage, but also provided an estimate of a major missing link in the global BC budget. The ever increasing DBC export caused by global warming will change the marine DOM quality and may have important consequences for carbon cycling in marine ecosystem.

Carbon in humic fractions of organic matter in soil treated with organic composts under mango cultivation.

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays a key role in maintaining the productivity of tropical soils, providing energy and substrate for the biological activity and modifying the physical and chemical characteristics that ensure the maintenance of soil quality and the sustainability of ecosystems. This study assessed the medium-term effect (six years) of the application of five organic composts, produced by combining different agro-industrial residues, on accumulation and chemical characteristics of soil organic matter. Treatments were applied in a long-term experiment of organic management of mango (OMM) initiated in 2005 with a randomized block design with four replications. Two external areas, one with conventional mango cultivation (CMM) and the other a fragment of regenerating Caatinga vegetation (RCF), were used as reference areas. Soil samples were collected in the three management systems from the 0.00-0.05, 0.05-0.10, and 0.10-0.20 m layers, and the total organic carbon content and chemical fractions of organic matter were evaluated by determining the C contents of humin and humic and fulvic acids. Organic compost application significantly increased the contents of total C and C in humic substances in the experimental plots, mainly in the surface layer. However, compost 3 (50 % coconut bagasse, 40 % goat manure, 10 % castor bean residues) significantly increased the level of the non-humic fraction, probably due to the higher contents of recalcitrant material in the initial composition. The highest increases from application of the composts were in the humin, followed by the fulvic fraction. Compost application increased the proportion of higher molecular weight components, indicating higher stability of the organic matter.

Carbon Stocks in Compartments of Soil Organic Matter 31 Years after Substitution of Native Cerrado Vegetation by Agroecosystems.

ABSTRACT: Changes in carbon stocks in different compartments of soil organic matter of a clayey Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico (Typic Haplustox), caused by the substitution of native savanna vegetation (cerrado sensu stricto) by agroecosystems, were assessed after 31 years of cultivation. Under native vegetation, a stock of 164.5 Mg ha-1 C was estimated in the 0.00-1.00 m layer. After 31 years of cultivation, these changes in soil C stocks were detected to a depth of 0.60 m. In the case of substitution of cerrado sensu stricto by no-tillage soybean-corn rotation, a reduction of at least 11 % of the soil C pools was observed. However, the adoption of no-tillage as an alternative to tillage with a moldboard plow (conventional system) reduced CO2 emissions by up to 12 %.

Relationships between labile soil organic carbon fractions under different soil management systems.

ABSTRACT: The study of labile carbon fractions (LCF) provides an understanding of the behavior of soil organic matter (SOM) under different soil management systems and cover crops. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of different soil management systems with respect to tillage, cover crop and phosphate fertilization on the amount of the LCF of SOM. Treatments consisted of conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) with millet as the cover crop and a no-tillage system with velvet bean at two phosphorus dosages. Soil samples were collected and analyzed for organic carbon (OC), C oxidizable by KMnO4 (C-KMnO4), particulate OC (POC), microbial biomass carbon and light SOM in the 0.0-0.05, 0.05-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m soil layers. The Carbon Management Index (CMI) was calculated to evaluate the impacts of soil management treatments on the quality of the SOM. The different LCFs are sensitive to different soil management systems, and there are significant correlations between them. C-KMnO4 is considered the best indicator of OC carbon lability. In the soil surface layers, the CT reduced the carbon content in all of the labile fractions of the SOM. The use of phosphorus led to the accumulation of OC and carbon in the different soil fractions regardless of the tillage system or cover crop. The application of phosphate fertilizer improved the ability of the NTsystem to promote soil quality, as assessed by the CMI.

Low carbon systems for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Global warming and climate change have been among the most controversial topics after the industrial revolution. The main contributor to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), which increases the temperature by trapping heat in the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 concentration before the industrial era was around 280 ppm for a long period, while it has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution up to approximately 420 ppm. According to the Paris agreement it is needed to keep the temperature increase up to 2°C, preferably 1.5° C, to prevent reaching the tipping point of climate change. To keep the temperature increase below the range, it is required to find solutions to reduce CO2 emissions. The solutions can be low-carbon systems and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES). This thesis is allocated to the assessment of low-carbon systems and the reduction of CO2 by using RES instead of fossil fuels. One of the most important aspects to define the location and capacity of low-carbon systems is CO2 mass estimation. As mentioned, high-emission systems can be substituted by low-carbon systems. An example of high-emission systems is dredging. The global CO2 emission from dredging is relatively high which is associated with the growth of marine transport in addition to its high emission. Thus, ejectors system as alternative for dredging is investigated in chapter 2. For the transition from fossil fuels to RES, it is required to provide solutions for the RES storage problem. A solution could be zero-emission fuels such as hydrogen. However, the production of hydrogen requires electricity, and electricity production emits a large amount of CO2. Therefore, the last three chapters are allocated to hydrogen generation via electrolysis, at the current condition and scenarios of RES and variation of cell characteristics and stack materials, and its delivery.