Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Olfactory selection of Plantago lanceolata by snails declines with seedling age

Background and Aims Despite recent recognition that (1) plant–herbivore interactions during the establishment phase, (2) ontogenetic shifts in resource allocation and (3) herbivore response to plant volatile release are each pivotal to a comprehensive understanding of plant defence, no study has examined how herbivore olfactory response varies during seedling ontogeny. Methods Using a Y-tube olfactometer we examined snail (Helix aspersa) olfactory response to pellets derived from macerated Plantago lanceolata plants harvested at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 weeks of age to test the hypothesis that olfactory selection of plants by a generalist herbivore varies with plant age. Plant volatiles were collected for 10 min using solid-phase microextraction technique on 1- and 8-week-old P. lanceolata pellets and analysed by gas chromatography coupled with a mass spectrometer. Key Results Selection of P. lanceolata was strongly negatively correlated with increasing age; pellets derived from 1-week-old seedlings were three times more likely to be selected as those from 8-week-old plants. Comparison of plant selection experiments with plant volatile profiles from GC/MS suggests that patterns of olfactory selection may be linked to ontogenetic shifts in concentrations of green leaf volatiles and ethanol (and its hydrolysis derivatives). Conclusions Although confirmatory of predictions made by contemporary plant defence theory, this is the first study to elucidate a link between seedling age and olfactory selection by herbivores. As a consequence, this study provides a new perspective on the ontogenetic expression of seedling defence, and the role of seedling herbivores, particularly terrestrial molluscs, as selective agents in temperate plant communities.

Predicting fatty acid profiles in blood based on food intake and the FADS1 rs174546 SNP

SCOPE: A high intake of n-3 PUFA provides health benefits via changes in the n-6/n-3 ratio in blood. In addition to such dietary PUFAs, variants in the fatty acid desaturase 1 (FADS1) gene are also associated with altered PUFA profiles. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used mathematical modelling to predict levels of PUFA in whole blood, based on MHT and bolasso selected food items, anthropometric and lifestyle factors, and the rs174546 genotypes in FADS1 from 1,607 participants (Food4Me Study). The models were developed using data from the first reported time point (training set) and their predictive power was evaluated using data from the last reported time point (test set). Amongst other food items, fish, pizza, chicken and cereals were identified as being associated with the PUFA profiles. Using these food items and the rs174546 genotypes as predictors, models explained 26% to 43% of the variability in PUFA concentrations in the training set and 22% to 33% in the test set. CONCLUSIONS: Selecting food items using MHT is a valuable contribution to determine predictors, as our models' predictive power is higher compared to analogue studies. As unique feature, we additionally confirmed our models' power based on a test set.

Environmental agreements as a Hawk-Dove game with confirmed proposals

This paper aims at two different contributions to the literature on international environmental agreements. First, we model environmental agreements as a generic situation, characterized as a Hawk-Dove game with multiple asymmetric equilibria. Second, the article applies the theory on non-cooperative games with confirmed proposals, based on an alternating proposals bargaining protocol, as a way of overcoming the usual problems of coordination and bargaining failures in environmental agreement games, due to payoff asymmetry and equilibrium multiplicity.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Problems with accessibility to health services by persons with disabilities in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Purpose. To describe the occurrence of self-reported problems of accessibility to health services used by persons with disabilities in terms of social and health services variables. Methods. We performed a cross-sectional household survey designed to assess problems with accessibility to health services faced by persons with disabilities. We interviewed 333 persons in Sao Paulo city, in 2007. Variables related to the presence of accessibility problems, disabilities, gender, age, family head income, ethnicity, use of health services and others were analysed using frequencies, percentages, chi(2)-test, ANOVA and Poisson regression models. Results. 15.92% of the interviewed persons reported problems with accessibility to health services. Persons having multiple (prevalence ratios; PR = 2.91) or mobility disability (PR = 6.46) had more problems with accessibility than persons with hearing disability. Persons younger than 78 years old had more problems with accessibility; those who needed help to go to the health service (PR = 3.01) also. Conclusions. Persons with multiple or mobility disability, younger than 78 years, and those who needed help of others to go to the health service were more likely to have problems with accessibility to health services. This information could be one of the first steps to the management and/or planning of appropriate health services for persons with disabilities.

High genetic diversity in field isolates of Trypanosoma theileri assessed by analysis of cathepsin L-like sequences disclosed multiple and new genotypes infecting cattle in Thailand

In this study, we describe the first survey in Thailand of Trypanosoma theileri, a widespread and prevalent parasite of cattle that is transmitted by tabanid flies. Investigation of 210 bovine blood samples of Thai cattle from six farms by hematocrit centrifuge technique (HCT) revealed 14 samples with trypanosomes morphologically compatible to T. theileri. Additional animals were positive for T. theileri by PCR based on the Cathepsin L-like sequence (TthCATL-PCR) despite negative by HCT, indicating cryptic infections. Results revealed a prevalence of 26 +/- 15% (95% CI) of T. theileri infection. Additionally, 12 samples positive for T. theileri were detected in cattle from other 11 farms. From a total of 30 blood samples positive by HCT and/or PCR from 17 farms, seven were characterized to evaluate the genetic polymorphism of T. theileri through sequence analysis of PCR-amplified CATL DNA sequences. All CATL sequences of T. theileri from Thai cattle clustered with sequences of the previously described phylogenetic lineages TthI and TthII, supporting only two major lineages of T. theileri in cattle around the world. However, 11 of the 29 CATL sequences analyzed showed to be different, disclosing an unexpectedly large polymorphic genetic repertoire, with multiple genotypes of T. theileri not previously described in other countries circulating in Thai cattle. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of Information Visualization Methods Eliminating Cross Talk in Multiple Sensing Units Investigated for a Light-Addressable Potentiometric Sensor

The integration of nanostructured films containing biomolecules and silicon-based technologies is a promising direction for reaching miniaturized biosensors that exhibit high sensitivity and selectivity. A challenge, however, is to avoid cross talk among sensing units in an array with multiple sensors located on a small area. In this letter, we describe an array of 16 sensing units, of a light-addressable potentiometric sensor (LAPS), which was made with layer-by-Layer (LbL) films of a poly(amidomine) dendrimer (PAMAM) and single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs), coated with a layer of the enzyme penicillinase. A visual inspection of the data from constant-current measurements with liquid samples containing distinct concentrations of penicillin, glucose, or a buffer indicated a possible cross talk between units that contained penicillinase and those that did not. With the use of multidimensional data projection techniques, normally employed in information Visualization methods, we managed to distinguish the results from the modified LAPS, even in cases where the units were adjacent to each other. Furthermore, the plots generated with the interactive document map (IDMAP) projection technique enabled the distinction of the different concentrations of penicillin, from 5 mmol L(-1) down to 0.5 mmol L(-1). Data visualization also confirmed the enhanced performance of the sensing units containing carbon nanotubes, consistent with the analysis of results for LAPS sensors. The use of visual analytics, as with projection methods, may be essential to handle a large amount of data generated in multiple sensor arrays to achieve high performance in miniaturized systems.

A Time Efficient Optical Model for GATE Simulation of a LYSO Scintillation Matrix Used in PET Applications

A time efficient optical model is proposed for GATE simulation of a LYSO scintillation matrix coupled to a photomultiplier. The purpose is to avoid the excessively long computation time when activating the optical processes in GATE. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by comparing the simulated and experimental energy spectra obtained with the dual planar head equipment for dosimetry with a positron emission tomograph ( DoPET). The procedure to apply the model is divided in two steps. Firstly, a simplified simulation of a single crystal element of DoPET is used to fit an analytic function that models the optical attenuation inside the crystal. In a second step, the model is employed to calculate the influence of this attenuation in the energy registered by the tomograph. The use of the proposed optical model is around three orders of magnitude faster than a GATE simulation with optical processes enabled. A good agreement was found between the experimental and simulated data using the optical model. The results indicate that optical interactions inside the crystal elements play an important role on the energy resolution and induce a considerable degradation of the spectra information acquired by DoPET. Finally, the same approach employed by the proposed optical model could be useful to simulate a scintillation matrix coupled to a photomultiplier using single or dual readout scheme.

Isostructural M(RL)(2)(hfac)(2) complexes with RL=5-(4-[N-tert-butyl-N-aminoxyl]phenyl)pyrimidine

5-(4-(N-tert-Butyl-N-aminoxylphenyl)) pyrimidine (RL, 4PPN) forms crystallographically isostructural and isomorphic pseudo-octahedral M(RL)(2)(hfac)(2) complexes with M(hfac)(2), M = Zn, Cu, Ni, Co, and Mn. Multiple close contacts occur between sites of significant spin density of the organic radical units. Magnetic behavior of the Zn, Cu, Ni, Co complexes appears to involve multiple exchange pathways, with multiple close crystallographic contacts between sites that EPR (of 4PPN) indicates to have observable spin density. Powder EPR spectra at room temperature and low temperature are reported for each complex. Near room temperature, the magnetic moments of the complexes are roughly equal to those expected by a sum of non-interacting moments (two radicals plus ion). As temperature decreases, AFM exchange interactions become evident in all of the complexes. The closest fits to the magnetic data were found for a 1-D Heisenberg AFM chain model in the Zn(II) complex (J/k = (-)7 K), and for three-spin RL-M-RL exchange in the other complexes (J/k = (-)26 K, (-)3 K, (-) 6 K, for Cu(II), Ni(II), and Co(II) complexes, respectively). (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy efficient and economic renovation of residential buildings with low-temperature heating and air heat recovery

With the building sector accounting for around 40% of the total energy consumption in the EU, energy efficiency in buildings is and continues to be an important issue. Great progress has been made in reducing the energy consumption in new buildings, but the large stock of existing buildings with poor energy performance is probably an even more crucial area of focus. This thesis deals with energy efficiency measures that can be suitable for renovation of existing houses, particularly low-temperature heating systems and ventilation systems with heat recovery. The energy performance, environmental impact and costs are evaluated for a range of system combinations, for small and large houses with various heating demands and for different climates in Europe. The results were derived through simulation with energy calculation tools. Low-temperature heating and air heat recovery were both found to be promising with regard to increasing energy efficiency in European houses. These solutions proved particularly effective in Northern Europe as low-temperature heating and air heat recovery have a greater impact in cold climates and on houses with high heating demands. The performance of heat pumps, both with outdoor air and exhaust air, was seen to improve with low-temperature heating. The choice between an exhaust air heat pump and a ventilation system with heat recovery is likely to depend on case specific conditions, but both choices are more cost-effective and have a lower environmental impact than systems without heat recovery. The advantage of the heat pump is that it can be used all year round, given that it produces DHW. Economic and environmental aspects of energy efficiency measures do not always harmonize. On the one hand, lower costs can sometimes mean larger environmental impact; on the other hand there can be divergence between different environmental aspects. This makes it difficult to define financial subsidies to promote energy efficiency measures.

Transport modelling: macro and micro simulation for the studied case of Funchal

The work done in this thesis attempts to demonstrate the importance of using models that can predict and represent the mobility of our society. To answer the proposed challenges two models were examined, the first corresponds to macro simulation with the intention of finding a solution to the frequency of the bus company Horários do Funchal, responsible for transport in the city of Funchal, and some surrounding areas. Where based on a simplified model of the city it was possible to increase the frequency of journeys getting an overall reduction in costs. The second model concerns the micro simulation of Avenida do Mar, where currently is being built a new roundabout (Praça da Autonomia), which connects with this avenue. Therefore it was proposed to study the impact on local traffic, and the implementation of new traffic lights for this purpose. Four possible situations in which was seen the possibility of increasing the number of lanes on the roundabout or the insertion of a bus lane were created. The results showed that having a roundabout with three lanes running is the best option because the waiting queues are minimal, and at environmental level this model will project fewer pollutants. Thus, this thesis presents two possible methods of urban planning. Transport modelling is an area that is under constant development, the global goal is to encourage more and more the use of these models, and as such it is important to have more people to devote themselves to studying new ways of addressing current problems, so that we can have more accurate models and increasing their credibility.

Detection and Identification of Abnormalities in Customer Consumptions in Power Distribution Systems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Coordinate and time-dependent diffusion dynamics in protein folding

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Genetic trends in the expected progeny difference of the asymptotic weight of Nelore females

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)