Optimal estimation of sea surface temperature from split-window observations

Optimal estimation (OE) improves sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from satellite infrared imagery in the “split-window”, in comparison to SST retrieved using the usual multi-channel (MCSST) or non-linear (NLSST) estimators. This is demonstrated using three months of observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the first Meteorological Operational satellite (Metop-A), matched in time and space to drifter SSTs collected on the global telecommunications system. There are 32,175 matches. The prior for the OE is forecast atmospheric fields from the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction system (ARPEGE), the forward model is RTTOV8.7, and a reduced state vector comprising SST and total column water vapour (TCWV) is used. Operational NLSST coefficients give mean and standard deviation (SD) of the difference between satellite and drifter SSTs of 0.00 and 0.72 K. The “best possible” NLSST and MCSST coefficients, empirically regressed on the data themselves, give zero mean difference and SDs of 0.66 K and 0.73 K respectively. Significant contributions to the global SD arise from regional systematic errors (biases) of several tenths of kelvin in the NLSST. With no bias corrections to either prior fields or forward model, the SSTs retrieved by OE minus drifter SSTs have mean and SD of − 0.16 and 0.49 K respectively. The reduction in SD below the “best possible” regression results shows that OE deals with structural limitations of the NLSST and MCSST algorithms. Using simple empirical bias corrections to improve the OE, retrieved minus drifter SSTs are obtained with mean and SD of − 0.06 and 0.44 K respectively. Regional biases are greatly reduced, such that the absolute bias is less than 0.1 K in 61% of 10°-latitude by 30°-longitude cells. OE also allows a statistic of the agreement between modelled and measured brightness temperatures to be calculated. We show that this measure is more efficient than the current system of confidence levels at identifying reliable retrievals, and that the best 75% of satellite SSTs by this measure have negligible bias and retrieval error of order 0.25 K.

Retrievals of sea surface temperature from infrared imagery: origin and form of systematic errors

We show that retrievals of sea surface temperature from satellite infrared imagery are prone to two forms of systematic error: prior error (familiar from the theory of atmospheric sounding) and error arising from nonlinearity. These errors have different complex geographical variations, related to the differing geographical distributions of the main geophysical variables that determine clear-sky brightness-temperatures over the oceans. We show that such errors arise as an intrinsic consequence of the form of the retrieval (rather than as a consequence of sub-optimally specified retrieval coefficients, as is often assumed) and that the pattern of observed errors can be simulated in detail using radiative-transfer modelling. The prior error has the linear form familiar from atmospheric sounding. A quadratic equation for nonlinearity error is derived, and it is verified that the nonlinearity error exhibits predominantly quadratic behaviour in this case.

Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

Eemian and Holocene sea-surface conditions in the southern Black Sea: organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst record from core 22-GC3/3

In order to compare the sea-surface conditions in the Black Sea during the Holocene and Eemian, sapropelic parts of marine core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N/36°29.55′E, 838 m water depth) were studied for organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst content. The record shows a change from freshwater/brackish assemblages (Pyxidinopsis psilata, Spiniferites cruciformis, and Caspidinium rugosum) to more marine assemblages (Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Spiniferites ramosus complex) during each interglacial, due to the inflow of saline Mediterranean water. The lacustrine–marine transitions in 22-GC3 occurred at ~ 8.3 cal kyr BP during the early Holocene and ~ 128 kyr BP during the early Eemian, slightly later compared to the onset of interglacial conditions on the adjacent land. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages reveal higher sea-surface salinity (~ 28–30) (e.g. Spiniferites pachydermus, Bitectatodinium tepikiense, and Spiniferites mirabilis) around ~ 126.5–121 kyr BP in comparison to the Holocene (~ 15–20) as well as relatively high sea-surface temperature (e.g. Tuberculodinium vancampoae, S. pachydermus, and S. mirabilis) especially at ~ 127.6–125.3 kyr BP. Establishment of high sea-surface salinity during the Eemian correlates very well with reconstructed relatively high global sea-level and is explained as a combined effect of increased Mediterranean supply and high temperatures at the beginning of the last interglacial. The observed changes in the dinocyst record highlight the importance of nutrients for the composition of the Eemian and Holocene dinocyst assemblages.

Eemian and Holocene sea-surface conditions in the southern Black Sea: organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst record from core 22-GC3

In order to compare the sea-surface conditions in the Black Sea during the Holocene and Eemian, sapropelic parts of marine core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N/36°29.55′E, 838 m water depth) were studied for organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst content. The record shows a change from freshwater/brackish assemblages (Pyxidinopsis psilata, Spiniferites cruciformis, and Caspidinium rugosum) to more marine assemblages (Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Spiniferites ramosus complex) during each interglacial, due to the inflow of saline Mediterranean water. The lacustrine–marine transitions in 22-GC3 occurred at ~ 8.3 cal kyr BP during the early Holocene and ~ 128 kyr BP during the early Eemian, slightly later compared to the onset of interglacial conditions on the adjacent land. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages reveal higher sea-surface salinity (~ 28–30) (e.g. Spiniferites pachydermus, Bitectatodinium tepikiense, and Spiniferites mirabilis) around ~ 126.5–121 kyr BP in comparison to the Holocene (~ 15–20) as well as relatively high sea-surface temperature (e.g. Tuberculodinium vancampoae, S. pachydermus, and S. mirabilis) especially at ~ 127.6–125.3 kyr BP. Establishment of high sea-surface salinity during the Eemian correlates very well with reconstructed relatively high global sea-level and is explained as a combined effect of increased Mediterranean supply and high temperatures at the beginning of the last interglacial. The observed changes in the dinocyst record highlight the importance of nutrients for the composition of the Eemian and Holocene dinocyst assemblages.

Magnesium/Calcium ratios and sea surface temperature estimation for sediments of the Timor Sea

We use a multiproxy approach to monitor changes in the vertical profile of the Indonesian Throughflow as well as monsoonal wind and precipitation patterns in the Timor Sea on glacial-interglacial, precessional, and suborbital timescales. We focus on an interval of extreme climate change and sea level variation: marine isotope (MIS) 6 to MIS 5e. Paleoproductivity fluctuations in the Timor Sea follow a precessional beat related to the intensity of the Australian (NW) monsoon. Paired Mg/Ca and d18O measurements of surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifers (G. ruber and P. obliquiloculata) indicate an increase of >4°C in both surface and thermocline water temperatures during Termination II. Tropical sea surface temperature changed synchronously with ice volume (benthic d18O) during deglaciation, implying a direct coupling of high- and low-latitude climate via atmospheric and/or upper ocean circulation. Substantial cooling and freshening of thermocline waters occurred toward the end of Termination II and during MIS 5e, indicating a change in the vertical profile of the Indonesian Throughflow from surface- to thermocline-dominated flow.

Sea surface reconstruction for sediments of the California continental margin

Organic matter in sediment samples from three ODP sites (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 167) that form a south-north transect was investigated to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and oceanographic conditions on the California continental margin during the last 160 kyr. Alkenone-derived paleosea surface temperatures (SST) are 3 to 6°C colder in glacial stages and reveal a clear relationship with global climate changes; the differences are greater in the north. Latitudinal SST comparison exhibits water mixing of the colder California Current with warmer waters from the south, particularly in the southern central California borderland area. Organic matter accumulation on the California continental margin indicates an interplay between climatic and atmospheric glacial-interglacial variations and spatially and temporally changing nutrient availability along the California coastline. Climatic and atmospheric dependent circulations apparently caused variations in the intensity of coastal upwelling along the southern central California margin and this suggests, due to the close connection of the California Current to the local wind patterns, that the California Current was weaker during glacial and stronger during interglacial periods.

Reconstruction of sea-surface conditions at middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

A new calibration database of census counts of organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages has been developed from the analyses of surface sediment samples collected at middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere after standardisation of taxonomy and laboratory procedures. The database comprises 940 reference data points from the North Atlantic, Arctic and North Pacific oceans and their adjacent seas, including the Mediterranean Sea, as well as epicontinental environments such as the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Bering Sea and the Hudson Bay. The relative abundance of taxa was analysed to describe the distribution of assemblages. The best analogue technique was used for the reconstruction of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea-surface temperature and salinity during summer and winter, in addition to sea-ice cover extent, at sites from the North Atlantic (n=63), Mediterranean Sea (n=1) and eastern North Pacific (n=1). Three of the North Atlantic cores, from the continental margin of eastern Canada, revealed a barren LGM interval, probably because of quasi-permanent sea ice. Six other cores from the Greenland and Norwegian seas were excluded from the compilation because of too sparse assemblages and poor analogue situation. At the remaining sites (n= 54), relatively close modern analogues were found for most LGM samples, which allowed reconstructions. The new LGM results are consistent with previous reconstructions based on dinocyst data, which show much cooler conditions than at present along the continental margins of Canada and Europe, but sharp gradients of increasing temperature offshore. The results also suggest low salinity and larger than present contrasts in seasonal temperatures with colder winters and more extensive sea-ice cover, whereas relatively warm conditions may have prevailed offshore in summer. From these data, we hypothesise low thermal inertia in a shallow and low-density surface water layer.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction for sediment core KNO5103-0029GGC

We present a 15 kyr sea surface temperature (SST) record for a high sedimentation rate core (KNR51-29GGC) from the Feni Drift off of Ireland, based on an organic geochemical technique for paleotemperature estimation, U37 K'. We compare the U37 K' temperature record to planktonic foraminiferal delta18O and foraminiferal assemblage SST estimates from the same sample horizons. U37 K' gives SST estimates of 13°C for the early deglacial and 18°C for the Holocene and Recent, whereas assemblages give estimates of 9°C and 13°C, respectively. As in nearby core V23-81, we find Ash Zone 1, the Younger Dryas increase in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral abundance, and maximum abundance of this species during glaciation. N. pachyderma dextral oxygen isotopic analyses have a late glacial to interglacial range of 1.5 per mil. A reduction of about 1 per mil in delta18O occurred at about 12 ka, whereas U37 K' and the foraminiferal fauna indicate a 2°C warming. This implies a 0.9 per mil salinity effect on delta18O which we attribute to meltwater freshening. All three parameters indicate cooling during the Younger Dryas. U37 K' SST estimates show that the major shift from deglacial to interglacial temperatures occurred after the Younger Dryas in termination 1b, in contrast to the assemblage data, which show this jump in SST at the end of the glaciation during termination Ia. Differences between the two SST estimators, which may result from their different (floral versus faunal) sources, are more pronounced between transitions Ia and Ib. This may reflect different habitats under the unusual sea surface conditions of the deglaciation.

Palynology and dinoflagellate counts of surface sediments, and sea surface conditions, of sites in the North Pacific

Palynological analyses were performed on 53 surface sediment samples from the North Pacific Ocean, including the Bering and Okhotsk Seas (37-64°N, 144°E-148°W), in order to document the relationships between the dinocyst distribution and sea-surface conditions (temperatures, salinities, primary productivity and sea-ice cover). Samples are characterized by concentrations ranging from 18 to 143816 cysts/cm**3 and the occurrence of 32 species. A canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was carried out to determine the relationship between environmental variables and the distribution of dinocyst taxa. The first and second axes represent, respectively, 47% and 17.8% of the canonical variance. Axis 1 is positively correlated with all parameters except to the sea-ice and primary productivity in August, which are on the negative side. Results indicate that the composition of dinocyst assemblages is mostly controlled by temperature and that all environmental variables are correlated together. The CCA distinguishes 3 groups of dinocysts: the heterotrophic taxa, the genera Impagidinium and Spiniferites as well as the cyst of Pentapharsodinium dalei and Operculodinium centrocarpum. Five assemblage zones can be distinguished: 1) the Okhotsk Sea zone, which is associated to temperate and eutrophic conditions, seasonal upwellings and Amur River discharges. It is characterized by the dominance of O. centrocarpum, Brigantedinium spp. and Islandinium minutum; 2) the Western Subarctic Gyre zone with subpolar and mesotrophic conditions due to the Kamchatka Current and Alaska Stream inflows. Assemblages are dominated by Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus, Pyxidinopsis reticulata and Brigantedinium spp.; 3) the Bering Sea zone, depicting a subpolar environment, influenced by seasonal upwellings and inputs from the Anadyr and Yukon Rivers. It is characterized by the dominance of I. minutum and Brigantedinium spp.; 4) the Alaska Gyre zone with temperate conditions and nutrient-enriched surface waters, which is dominated by N. labyrinthus and Brigantedinium spp. and 5) the Kuroshio Extension-North Pacific-Subarctic Current zone characterized by a subtropical and oligotrophic environment, which is dominated by O. centrocarpum, N. labyrinthus and warm taxa of the genus Impagidinium. Transfer functions were tested using the modern analog technique (MAT) on the North Pacific Ocean (= 359 sites) and the entire Northern Hemisphere databases ( = 1419 sites). Results confirm that the updated Northern Hemisphere database is suitable for further paleoenvironmental reconstructions, and the best results are obtained for temperatures with an accuracy of +/-1.7 °C.

Sea surface temperature record of ODP Site 202-1233

We present the first high-resolution alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction in the southeast Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1233) covering the major part of the last glacial period and the Holocene. The record shows a clear millennial-scale pattern that is very similar to climate fluctuations observed in Antarctic ice cores, suggesting that the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude climate changes extended into the midlatitudes, involving simultaneous changes in air temperatures over Antarctica, sea ice extent, extension of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and westerly atmospheric circulation. A comparison to other midlatitude surface ocean records suggests that this "Antarctic" millennial-scale pattern was probably a hemisphere-wide phenomenon. In addition, we performed SST gradient reconstructions over the complete latitudinal range of the Pacific Eastern Boundary Current System for different time intervals during the last 70 kyr. The main results suggest an equatorward displaced subtropical gyre circulation during marine isotope stages 2 and 4.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction for ODP Hole 178-1098B

The disintegration of ice shelves, reduced sea-ice and glacier extent, and shifting ecological zones observed around Antarctica (Cook et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1104235; Stammerjohn et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.04.026) highlight the impact of recent atmospheric (Steig et al., 2009, doi:10.1038/nature07669) and oceanic warming (Gille, 2002, doi:10.1126/science.1065863) on the cryosphere. Observations (Cook et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1104235; Stammerjohn et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.04.026) and models (Pollard and DeConto, 2009, doi:10.1038/nature07809) suggest that oceanic and atmospheric temperature variations at Antarctica's margins affect global cryosphere stability, ocean circulation, sea levels and carbon cycling. In particular, recent climate changes on the Antarctic Peninsula have been dramatic, yet the Holocene climate variability of this region is largely unknown, limiting our ability to evaluate ongoing changes within the context of historical variability and underlying forcing mechanisms. Here we show that surface ocean temperatures at the continental margin of the western Antarctic Peninsula cooled by 3-4 °C over the past 12,000?years, tracking the Holocene decline of local (65° S) spring insolation. Our results, based on TEX86 sea surface temperature (SST) proxy evidence from a marine sediment core, indicate the importance of regional summer duration as a driver of Antarctic seasonal sea-ice fluctuations (Huybers and Denton, 2008, doi:10.1038/ngeo311). On millennial timescales, abrupt SST fluctuations of 2-4 °C coincide with globally recognized climate variability (Mayewski et al., 2004, doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2004.07.001). Similarities between our SSTs, Southern Hemisphere westerly wind reconstructions (Moreno et al., 2010, doi:10.1130/G30962.1) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability (Conroy et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.02.015) indicate that present climate teleconnections between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the western Antarctic Peninsula (Yuan et al., 2004, doi:10.1017/S0954102004002238) strengthened late in the Holocene epoch. We conclude that during the Holocene, Southern Ocean temperatures at the western Antarctic Peninsula margin were tied to changes in the position of the westerlies, which have a critical role in global carbon cycling (Moreno et al., 2010, doi:10.1130/G30962.1; Anderson et al., 2009, doi:10.1126/science.1167441).