Inter-annual variations in the floristic and population structure of an herbaceous community of "caatinga" vegetation in Pernambuco, Brazil

The influence of climatic variations on the herbaceous component of the "caatinga" vegetation was examined in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. A total of 105 1 × 1 m-plots were established, of which 35 were in a level micro-habitat, 35 in a riparian micro-habitat, and 35 in a stony microhabitat. During two consecutive years all herbaceous plants in these plots were counted, measured (height and diameter), and collected for identification. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index and the equitability were calculated for each year, as well as the density, frequency, dominance, total basal area and importance index for each species. The total annual pluviometric was 819.5 and 448.8 mm in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The herbaceous flora in the study area was composed of 71 species, of which 58 were sampled in the plots. The families with the greatest species richness were Malvaceae (8 species), Euphorbiaceae (7), Poaceae (6), Convolvulaceae (4), Fabaceae (4), and Portulacaceae (4). The diversity indices were 2.66 and 3.01 nats ind-1 in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The density, frequency, dominance and importance value of herbaceous populations, as well as, the height and diameter of plants were low in the dryer year. The riparian group was the most isolated of the microhabitats examined, both in terms of its floristic and its population structure. Annual seasonal climatic variations greatly modified these populations structure during the course of this study, emphasizing the fact that long-term studies are needed in order to better understand the dynamics of the herbaceous component of the "caatinga" vegetation.

Thermoaclimatory variations in the microenvironment of hemoglobin in the rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri and the carp, Cyprinus carpio

Several inorganic substances (e.g., C£ , Mg , Ca , H ) are potent negative modulators of hemoglobin-oxygen affinity. To evaluate the possibility that potentially adaptive changes in the red cell ionic environment of hemoglobin may take place during acclimation of fishes to increased environmental temperature, hematological status (hemoglobin, hematocrit, red cell numbers, mean erythrocytic volume and hemoglobin content), plasma + + 2+ 2+ and packed red cell electrolyte levels (Na , K , Ca , Mg , C£ ) were evaluated in summer and winter populations of the stenothermal rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri, following acclimation to 2°, 10°, 18°C, and in a spring population of eurythermal carp, Cyprinus carpio, held at 2°, 16° and 30°C. From these data cell ion concentrations and ion:hemoglobin ratios were estimated. In view of the role of red cell carbonic anhydrase in the reductions of blood C02 tensions and the recruitment of Na and C£~ lost by fishes, a preliminary investigation of thermoacclimatory changes in the activity of this system in rainbow trout erythrocytes was conducted. Few changes in hematological status were encountered following acclimation. There was, however, some evidence of weight-specific differential hematological response in carp. This lead to markedly greater increases in hemoglobin, hematocrit and red cell numbers in smaller rather than in larger specimens at higher temperatures; variations which were 2+ well correlated with changes in plasma Ca . Plasma composition in summer trout was not altered by acclimation. In winter trout plasma Na and K increased at higher temperatures. Carp were characterized by increases in plasma calcium, and reductions in sodium and magnesium under these conditions. Several significant seasonal differences in plasma ion levels were observed in the trout. (n) In trout, only erythrocytic K and K :Hb were altered by acclimation, rising at higher temperatures. In carp Na , Na :Hb, C£~ and C£~:Hb in- 2+ 2+ creased with temperature, while Mg and Mg :Hb declined. Changes in overall ionic composition in carp red cells were consistent with increases in H content. In both species significant reciprocal variations in C£~ 2+ - + and Mg were found. In mammalian systems increases in C£ and H reduce hemoglobin-oxygen affinity by interaction with hemoglobin. Reduction in 2+ 2+ Mg maximizes organophosphate modulator availability by decreasing ATP»Mg complex formation. Thus, the changes observed may be of adaptive value in reducing hemoglobin-oxygen affinity, and facilitating oxygen release to cells at higher temperatures. Trout appear to maintain a high chloridelow magnesium state over the entire thermal tolerance zone. Carp, however, achieved this state only at higher temperatures. In both species mean erythrocytic volume was decreased at higher temperatures and this may facilitate branchial oxygen loading. Since mean erythrocytic volume was inversely related to red cell ion content, it is hypothesized that reductions in cell volume are achieved by export of some unidentified solute or solutes. Variations in the carbonic anhydrase activity that could be attributed to the thermoacclimatory process were quite modest. On the other hand, assays performed at the temperature of acclimation showed a large temperature effect where under in vivo conditions of temperature fish acclimated to higher temperatures might be expected to have higher activities. Furthermore, since hematocrit increased with temperature in these fish, while carbonic anhydrase is present only in the erythrocyte, the whole blood levels of this enzyme are expected to increase and further augment the temperature effect. This, in turn, could aid in the reduction of C02 (111) tension and increase the production of H and HC0~~ used in the active uptake of Na and C£ at higher temperatures.

Seasonal ramification in the biochemical composition of organic matter in Chalakudy river-estuary

The present study which is the first of its kind in this region is an attempt to generate adequate information on the relative abundances, the seasonal and spatial variations as well as on the source and fate of organic compounds found associated with the dissolved, particulate and sedimentary compartments of Chalakudy river system. The study aimed at investigating variations, the relative proportion of dissolved, particulate and sedimentary fractions of these materials as well as the pollution extent so as to be able to comment on the present condition of this river-estuarine system. This thesis focuses attention on the role of biogeoorganics in modifying the ecological and environmental condition of the dissolved, particuIate and sediment compartments with their minute variability subjected to various physical, chemical and biogeochemical processes. A scheme of study encompassing all these objectives provides the frame work for the present investigation.

Predictability and skill of boreal winter forecasts made with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System II

The performance of boreal winter forecasts made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 11 Seasonal Forecasting System is investigated through analyses of ensemble hindcasts for the period 1987-2001. The predictability, or signal-to-noise ratio, associated with the forecasts, and the forecast skill are examined. On average, forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) have skill in most of the Tropics and in a few regions of the extratropics. There is broad, but not perfect, agreement between regions of high predictability and regions of high skill. However, model errors are also identified, in particular regions where the forecast ensemble spread appears too small. For individual winters the information provided by t-values, a simple measure of the forecast signal-to-noise ratio, is investigated. For 2 m surface air temperature (T2m), highest t-values are found in the Tropics but there is considerable interannual variability, and in the tropical Atlantic and Indian basins this variability is not directly tied to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. For GPH there is also large interannual variability in t-values, but these variations cannot easily be predicted from the strength of the tropical sea-surface-temperature anomalies. It is argued that the t-values for 500 hPa GPH can give valuable insight into the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere that generates predictable signals in the model. Consequently, t-values may be a useful tool for understanding, at a mechanistic level, forecast successes and failures. Lastly, the extent to which t-values are useful as a predictor of forecast skill is investigated. For T2m, t-values provide a useful predictor of forecast skill in both the Tropics and extratropics. Except in the equatorial east Pacific, most of the information in t-values is associated with interannual variability of the ensemble-mean forecast rather than interannual variability of the ensemble spread. For GPH, however, t-values provide a useful predictor of forecast skill only in the tropical Pacific region.

Seasonal changes in olive fruit characteristics and oil accumulation during ripening process

Olive fruits of three of the most important Spanish and Italian cultivars, 'Picual', `Hojiblanca' and 'Frantoio', were harvested at bi-weekly periods during three crop seasons to study their development and ripening process. Fresh and dry weights and ripening index were determined for fruit, while dry matter, oil and moisture contents were determined in both fruit and pulp (flesh). Fruit growth rate and oil accumulation were calculated. Each olive cultivar showed a different ripening pattern, 'Hojiblanca' being the last one to maturate. Fruit weight increased, decreasing its growth rate from the middle of November. Dry matter and moisture contents decreased during ripening in pulp and fruit, 'Hojiblanca' showing the highest values for both. Oil content, when expressed on a fresh weight basis, increased in all cultivars, although for the last time period showed variations due to climatic conditions. During ripening, oil content on a dry weight basis increased in fruit, but oil biosynthesis in flesh ceased from November. Olive fruits presented lower oil and higher dry matter contents in the year of lowest rainfall. Therefore fruit harvesting should be carried out from the middle of November in order to obtain the highest oil yield and avoid natural fruit drop. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

Role of the atmosphere in the seasonal phase locking of El Nino

The variations with the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric response to constant SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are investigated with the atmospheric GCM, HadAM3. The equatorial wind response is weakest in January and February when the warmest SSTs are south of the Equator and strongest in April when the warmest SSTs are on the Equator. This may have consequences for the seasonality of the onset and termination of El Niño. Westerly wind anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño have previously been observed to shift south of the Equator, weakening on the Equator, during the northern winter. It has been suggested that this may contribute to the termination of El Niño in spring. These experiments demonstrate that such a shift can arise solely in response to the mean seasonal cycle during El Niño and does not require changes in SST anomalies.

On the seasonal onset of polar mesospheric clouds and the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs), also known as noctilucent clouds, have been observed to be more variable and, in general, dimmer than their Northern Hemisphere (NH) counterparts. The precise cause of these hemispheric differences is not well understood. This paper focuses on one aspect of the hemispheric differences: the timing of the PMC season onset. Observations from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite indicate that in recent years the date on which the PMC season begins varies much more in the SH than in the NH. Using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, we show that the generation of sufficiently low temperatures necessary for cloud formation in the SH summer polar mesosphere is perturbed by year‐to‐year variations in the timing of the late‐spring breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. These stratospheric variations, which persist until the end of December, influence the propagation of gravity waves up to the mesosphere. This adds a stratospheric control to the temperatures in the polar mesopause region during early summer, which causes the onset of PMCs to vary from one year to another. This effect is much stronger in the SH than in the NH because the breakdown of the polar vortex occurs much later in the SH, closer in time to the PMC season.

The signature of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude seasonal mean flow and high-frequency intraseasonal variability

The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed. The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes. The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.

Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

Effect of seasonal variation on the composition and properties of raw milk destined for processing in the UK

The composition and physical properties of raw milk from a commercial herd were studied over a one year period in order to understand how best to utilise milk for processing throughout the year. Protein and fat levels demonstrated seasonal trends, while minerals and many physical properties displayed considerable variations, which were apparently unrelated to season. However, rennet clotting time, ethanol stability and foaming ability were subject to seasonal variation. Many significant interrelationships in physico-chemical properties were found. It is clear that the milk supply may be more suited to the manufacture of different products at different times of the year or even on a day to day basis. Subsequent studies will report on variation in production and quality of products manufactured from the same milk samples described in the current study and will thus highlight potential advantages of seasonal processing of raw milk.

A new South American network to study the atmospheric electric field and its variations related to geophysical phenomena

In this paper we present the capability of a new network of field mill sensors to monitor the atmospheric electric field at various locations in South America; we also show some early results. The main objective of the new network is to obtain the characteristic Universal Time diurnal curve of the atmospheric electric field in fair weather, known as the Carnegie curve. The Carnegie curve is closely related to the current sources flowing in the Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit so that another goal is the study of this relationship on various time scales (transient/monthly/seasonal/annual). Also, by operating this new network, we may also study departures of the Carnegie curve from its long term average value related to various solar, geophysical and atmospheric phenomena such as the solar cycle, solar flares and energetic charged particles, galactic cosmic rays, seismic activity and specific meteorological events. We then expect to have a better understanding of the influence of these phenomena on the Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit and its time-varying behavior.

Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models. An evaluation of seasonal probability forecasts from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) and ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble experiments is presented. Two particular regions are considered: Nino3.4 in the Pacific and the Main Development Region in the Atlantic; these regions were chosen before any spatial distribution of skill was examined. The ENSEMBLES models are found to have skill against the climatological distribution on seasonal time-scales. For models in ENSEMBLES that have a clearly defined predecessor model in DEMETER, the improvement from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES is discussed. Due to the long lead times of the forecasts and the evolution of observation technology, the forecast-outcome archive for seasonal forecast evaluation is small; arguably, evaluation data for seasonal forecasting will always be precious. Issues of information contamination from in-sample evaluation are discussed and impacts (both positive and negative) of variations in cross-validation protocol are demonstrated. Other difficulties due to the small forecast-outcome archive are identified. The claim that the multi-model ensemble provides a ‘better’ probability forecast than the best single model is examined and challenged. Significant forecast information beyond the climatological distribution is also demonstrated in a persistence probability forecast. The ENSEMBLES probability forecasts add significantly more information to empirical probability forecasts on seasonal time-scales than on decadal scales. Current operational forecasts might be enhanced by melding information from both simulation models and empirical models. Simulation models based on physical principles are sometimes expected, in principle, to outperform empirical models; direct comparison of their forecast skill provides information on progress toward that goal.

Time-variations in commodity price jumps

In this paper, we study jumps in commodity prices. Unlike assumed in existing models of commodity price dynamics, a simple analysis of the data reveals that the probability of tail events is not constant but depends on the time of the year, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic volatility jump–diffusion model to capture this seasonal variation. Applying the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology, we estimate our model using 20 years of futures data from four different commodity markets. We find strong statistical evidence to suggest that our model with seasonal jump intensity outperforms models featuring a constant jump intensity. To demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings, we show that our model typically improves Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Seasonal population dynamics and the genetic structure of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti in São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)