Information, learning, and risk in financial markets

Cette thèse comprend trois essais qui abordent l'information le processus d'ap-prentissage ainsi que le risque dans les marchés finances. Elle se concentre d'abord sur les implications à l'équilibre de l'hétérogénéité des agents à travers un processus d'apprentissage comprtemental et de mise à jour de l'information. De plus, elle examine les effets du partage des risques dans un reseau entreprise-fournisseur. Le premier chapitre étudie les effets du biais de disponibili sur l'évaluation des actifs. Ce biais décrit le fait que les agents surestiment l'importance de l'information acquise via l'expérience personnelle. L'hétérogénéité restante des différentes perceptions individuelles amène à une volonté d'échanges. Conformé¬ment aux données empiriques, les jeunes agents échangent plus mais en même temps souffrent d'une performance inférieure. Le deuxième chapitre se penche sur l'impact qu'ont les différences de modelisation entre les agents sur leurs percevons individuelles du processus de prix, dans le contexte des projections de modèles. Les agents sujets à un biais de projection pensent être représentatifs et interprètent les opinions des autres agents comme du bruit. Les agents, avec des modèles plus persistants, perçoivent que les prix réagissent de façon excessive lors des périodes de turbulence. Le troisième chapitre analyse l'impact du partage des risques dans la relation entreprise-fournisseur sur la décision optimale de financement de l'entreprise. Il étudie l'impact sur l'optimisation de la structure du capital ainsi que sur le coût du capital. Les résultats indiquent en particulier qu'un fournisseur avec un effet de levier faible est utile pour le financement d'un nouveau projet d'investissement. Pour des projets très rentables et des fournisseurs à faible effet de levier, le coût des capitaux propres de l'entreprise peut diminuer.

Impact of case management on frequent users' quality of life : a randomized, controlled trial (FM 286)

Introduction: Frequent emergency department (ED) users are often vulnerable patients with many risk factors affecting their quality of life (QoL). The aim of this study was to examine to what extent a case management intervention improved frequent ED users' QoL. Methods: Data were part of a randomized, controlled trial designed to improve frequent ED users' QoL at the Lausanne University Hospital. A total of 194 frequent ED users (≥ 5 attendances during the previous 12 months; ≥ 18 years of age) were randomly assigned to the control or the intervention group. Participants in the intervention group received a case management intervention (i.e. counseling and assistance concerning social determinants of health, substance-use disorders, and access to the health-care system). QoL was evaluated using the WHOQOL-BREF at baseline and twelve months later. Four dimensions of QoL were retained: physical health, psychological health, social relationship, and environment, with scores ranging from 0 (low QoL) to 100 (high QoL).

Fruit and vegetables and cancer risk : a review of southern European studies

High intakes of fruit and vegetables may reduce the risk of cancer at several sites. Evidence has been derived mainly from case-control studies. We reviewed the relationship between consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of several common cancers in a network of Italian and Swiss case-control studies including over 10 000 cases of fourteen different cancers and about 17 000 controls. Data were suggestive of a protective role of vegetable intake on the risk of several common epithelial cancers. OR for the highest compared with the lowest levels of consumption ranged from 0·2 (larynx, oral cavity and pharynx) to 0·9 (prostate). Inverse associations were found for both raw and cooked vegetables, although for upper digestive tract cancers the former were somewhat stronger. Similar inverse associations were found for cruciferous vegetables. Frequent consumption of allium vegetables was also associated with reduced risk of several cancers. Fruit was a favourable correlate of the risk of several cancers, particularly of the upper digestive tract, with associations generally weaker than those reported for vegetables. A reduced risk of cancers of the digestive tract and larynx was found for high consumption of citrus fruit. Suggestive protections against several forms of cancer, mainly digestive tract cancers, were found for high consumption of apples and tomatoes. High intakes of fibres, flavonoids and proanthocyanidins were inversely related to various forms of cancer. In conclusion, data from our series of case-control studies suggested a favourable role of high intakes of fruit and vegetables in the risk of many common cancers, particularly of the digestive tract. This adds evidence to the indication that aspects of the Mediterranean diet may have a favourable impact not only on CVD, but also on several common (epithelial) cancers, particularly of the digestive tract.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Quality of Disease Management and Risk of Mortality in English Primary Care Practices

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether better management of chronic conditions by family practices reduces mortality risk. DATA: Two random samples of 5 million patients registered with over 8,000 English family practices followed up for 4 years (2004/5-2007/8). Measures of the quality of disease management for 10 conditions were constructed for each family practice for each year. The outcome measure was an indicator taking the value 1 if the patient died during a specified year, 0 otherwise. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-section and multilevel panel data multiple logistic regressions were estimated. Covariates included age, gender, morbidity, hospitalizations, attributed socio-economic characteristics, and local health care supply measures. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Although a composite measure of the quality of disease management for all 10 conditions was significantly associated with lower mortality, only the quality of stroke care was significant when all 10 quality measures were entered in the regression. CONCLUSIONS: The panel data results suggest that a 1 percent improvement in the quality of stroke care could reduce the annual number of deaths in England by 782 [95 percent CI: 423, 1140]. A longer study period may be necessary to detect any mortality impact of better management of other conditions.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Abdominal Complications After Lung Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Due to the underlying diseases and the need for immunosuppression, patients after lung transplantation are particularly at risk for gastrointestinal (GI) complications that may negatively influence long-term outcome. The present study assessed the incidences and impact of GI complications after lung transplantation and aimed to identify risk factors. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all 227 consecutively performed single- and double-lung transplantations at the University hospitals of Lausanne and Geneva was performed between January 1993 and December 2010. Logistic regressions were used to test the effect of potentially influencing variables on the binary outcomes overall, severe, and surgery-requiring complications, followed by a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Final analysis included 205 patients for the purpose of the present study, and 22 patients were excluded due to re-transplantation, multiorgan transplantation, or incomplete datasets. GI complications were observed in 127 patients (62 %). Gastro-esophageal reflux disease was the most commonly observed complication (22.9 %), followed by inflammatory or infectious colitis (20.5 %) and gastroparesis (10.7 %). Major GI complications (Dindo/Clavien III-V) were observed in 83 (40.5 %) patients and were fatal in 4 patients (2.0 %). Multivariate analysis identified double-lung transplantation (p = 0.012) and early (1993-1998) transplantation period (p = 0.008) as independent risk factors for developing major GI complications. Forty-three (21 %) patients required surgery such as colectomy, cholecystectomy, and fundoplication in 6.8, 6.3, and 3.9 % of the patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified Charlson comorbidity index of ≥3 as an independent risk factor for developing GI complications requiring surgery (p = 0.015). CONCLUSION: GI complications after lung transplantation are common. Outcome was rather encouraging in the setting of our transplant center.

Salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk : what is the most adequate preventive strategy? A Swiss perspective

Among the various strategies to reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases reduction of sodium intake in the general population has been recognized as one of the most cost-effective means because of its potential impact on the development of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Yet, this strategic health recommendation of the WHO and many other international organizations is far from being universally accepted. Indeed, there are still several unresolved scientific and epidemiological questions that maintain an ongoing debate. Thus what is the adequate low level of sodium intake to recommend to the general population and whether national strategies should be oriented to the overall population or only to higher risk fractions of the population such as salt-sensitive patients are still discussed. In this paper, we shall review the recent results of the literature regarding salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk and we present the recommendations recently proposed by a group of experts of Switzerland. The propositions of the participating medical societies are to encourage national health authorities to continue their discussion with the food industry in order to reduce the sodium intake of food products with a target of mean salt intake of 5-6 grams per day in the population. Moreover, all initiatives to increase the information on the effect of salt on health and on the salt content of food are supported.

Impact of the early use of immunomodulators or TNF antagonists on bowel damage and surgery in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: The impact of early treatment with immunomodulators (IM) and/or TNF antagonists on bowel damage in Crohn's disease (CD) patients is unknown. AIM: To assess whether 'early treatment' with IM and/or TNF antagonists, defined as treatment within a 2-year period from the date of CD diagnosis, was associated with development of lesser number of disease complications when compared to 'late treatment', which was defined as treatment initiation after >2 years from the time of CD diagnosis. METHODS: Data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analysed. The following outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard modelling: bowel strictures, perianal fistulas, internal fistulas, intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any of the aforementioned complications. RESULTS: The 'early treatment' group of 292 CD patients was compared to the 'late treatment' group of 248 CD patients. We found that 'early treatment' with IM or TNF antagonists alone was associated with reduced risk of bowel strictures [hazard ratio (HR) 0.496, P = 0.004 for IM; HR 0.276, P = 0.018 for TNF antagonists]. Furthermore, 'early treatment' with IM was associated with reduced risk of undergoing intestinal surgery (HR 0.322, P = 0.005), and perianal surgery (HR 0.361, P = 0.042), as well as developing any complication (HR 0.567, P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with immunomodulators or TNF antagonists within the first 2 years of CD diagnosis was associated with reduced risk of developing bowel strictures, when compared to initiating these drugs >2 years after diagnosis. Furthermore, early immunomodulators treatment was associated with reduced risk of intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any complication.

Impact of platelet rich plasma and adipose stem cells on lymphangiogenesis in a murine tail lymphedema model.

BACKGROUND: Lymphedema is an underdiagnosed pathology which in industrialized countries mainly affects cancer patients that underwent lymph node dissection and/or radiation. Currently no effective therapy is available so that patients' life quality is compromised by swellings of the concerned body region. This unfortunate condition is associated with body imbalance and subsequent osteochondral deformations and impaired function as well as with an increased risk of potentially life threatening soft tissue infections. METHODS: The effects of PRP and ASC on angiogenesis (anti-CD31 staining), microcirculation (Laser Doppler Imaging), lymphangiogenesis (anti-LYVE1 staining), microvascular architecture (corrosion casting) and wound healing (digital planimetry) are studied in a murine tail lymphedema model. RESULTS: Wounds treated by PRP and ASC healed faster and showed a significantly increased epithelialization mainly from the proximal wound margin. The application of PRP induced a significantly increased lymphangiogenesis while the application of ASC did not induce any significant change in this regard. CONCLUSIONS: PRP and ASC affect lymphangiogenesis and lymphedema development and might represent a promising approach to improve regeneration of lymphatic vessels, restore disrupted lymphatic circulation and treat or prevent lymphedema alone or in combination with currently available lymphedema therapies.

Impact of unbalanced minor route versus major route karyotypes at diagnosis on prognosis of CML.

Major route additional cytogenetic aberrations (ACA) at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) indicate an increased risk of progression and shorter survival. Since major route ACA are almost always unbalanced, it is unclear whether other unbalanced ACA at diagnosis also confer an unfavourable prognosis. On the basis of 1348 Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic phase patients of the randomized CML study IV, we examined the impact of unbalanced minor route ACA at diagnosis versus major route ACA on prognosis. At diagnosis, 1175 patients (87.2 %) had a translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11) and 74 (5.5 %) a variant translocation t(v;22) only, while a loss of the Y chromosome (-Y) was present in addition in 44 (3.3 %), balanced or unbalanced minor route ACA each in 17 (1.3 %) and major route ACA in 21 (1.6 %) cases. Patients with unbalanced minor route ACA had no significantly different cumulative incidences of complete cytogenetic remission or major molecular remission and no significantly different progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) than patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y and balanced minor route karyotypes. In contrast, patients with major route ACA had a shorter OS and PFS than all other groups (all pairwise comparisons to each of the other groups: p ≤ 0.015). Five-year survival probabilities were for t(9;22) 91.4 % (95 % CI 89.5-93.1), t(v; 22) 87 % (77.2-94.3), -Y 89.0 % (76.7-97.0), balanced 100 %, unbalanced minor route 92.3 % (72.4-100) and major route 52.2 % (28.2-75.5). We conclude that only major route, but not balanced or unbalanced minor route ACA at diagnosis, has a negative impact on prognosis of CML.

Impact of early valve surgery on outcome of Staphylococcus aureus prosthetic valve infective endocarditis: analysis in the International Collaboration of Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of early valve surgery (EVS) on the outcome of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) prosthetic valve infective endocarditis (PVIE) is unresolved. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between EVS, performed within the first 60 days of hospitalization, and outcome of SA PVIE within the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study. METHODS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006. Cox proportional hazards modeling that included surgery as a time-dependent covariate and propensity adjustment for likelihood to receive cardiac surgery was used to evaluate the impact of EVS and 1-year all-cause mortality on patients with definite left-sided S. aureus PVIE and no history of injection drug use. RESULTS: EVS was performed in 74 of the 168 (44.3%) patients. One-year mortality was significantly higher among patients with S. aureus PVIE than in patients with non-S. aureus PVIE (48.2% vs 32.9%; P = .003). Staphylococcus aureus PVIE patients who underwent EVS had a significantly lower 1-year mortality rate (33.8% vs 59.1%; P = .001). In multivariate, propensity-adjusted models, EVS was not associated with 1-year mortality (risk ratio, 0.67 [95% confidence interval, .39-1.15]; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.

Impact of a Dedicated Noninvasive Ventilation Team on Intubation and Mortality Rates in Severe COPD Exacerbations.

BACKGROUND: Compared with usual care, noninvasive ventilation (NIV) lowers the risk of intubation and death for subjects with respiratory failure secondary to COPD exacerbations, but whether administration of NIV by a specialized, dedicated team improves its efficiency remains uncertain. Our aim was to test whether a dedicated team of respiratory therapists applying all acute NIV treatments would reduce the risk of intubation or death for subjects with COPD admitted for respiratory failure. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective study comparing subjects with COPD admitted to the ICU before (2001-2003) and after (2010-2012) the creation of a dedicated NIV team in a regional acute care hospital. The primary outcome was the risk of intubation or death. The secondary outcomes were the individual components of the primary outcome and ICU/hospital stay. RESULTS: A total of 126 subjects were included: 53 in the first cohort and 73 in the second. There was no significant difference in the demographic characteristics and severity of respiratory failure. Fifteen subjects (28.3%) died or had to undergo tracheal intubation in the first cohort, and only 10 subjects (13.7%) in the second cohort (odds ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.16-0.99, P = .04). In-hospital mortality (15.1% vs 4.1%, P = .03) and median stay (ICU: 3.1 vs 1.9 d, P = .04; hospital: 11.5 vs 9.6 d, P = .04) were significantly lower in the second cohort, and a trend for a lower intubation risk was observed (20.8% vs 11% P = .13). CONCLUSIONS: The delivery of NIV by a dedicated team was associated with a lower risk of death or intubation in subjects with respiratory failure secondary to COPD exacerbations. Therefore, the implementation of a team administering all NIV treatments on a 24-h basis should be considered in institutions admitting subjects with COPD exacerbations.

Impact of Sleep and Circadian Disruption on Energy Balance and Diabetes: A Summary of Workshop Discussions.

ABSTRACT: A workshop was held at the National Institute for Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases with a focus on the impact of sleep and circadian disruption on energy balance and diabetes. The workshop identified a number of key principles for research in this area and a number of specific opportunities. Studies in this area would be facilitated by active collaboration between investigators in sleep/circadian research and investigators in metabolism/diabetes. There is a need to translate the elegant findings from basic research into improving the metabolic health of the American public. There is also a need for investigators studying the impact of sleep/circadian disruption in humans to move beyond measurements of insulin and glucose and conduct more in-depth phenotyping. There is also a need for the assessments of sleep and circadian rhythms as well as assessments for sleep-disordered breathing to be incorporated into all ongoing cohort studies related to diabetes risk. Studies in humans need to complement the elegant short-term laboratory-based human studies of simulated short sleep and shift work etc. with studies in subjects in the general population with these disorders. It is conceivable that chronic adaptations occur, and if so, the mechanisms by which they occur needs to be identified and understood. Particular areas of opportunity that are ready for translation are studies to address whether CPAP treatment of patients with pre-diabetes and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) prevents or delays the onset of diabetes and whether temporal restricted feeding has the same impact on obesity rates in humans as it does in mice.

Indirect comparison meta-analysis of two enoxaparin regimens in patients undergoing major orthopaedic surgery. Impact on the interpretation of thromboprophylactic effects of new anticoagulant drugs.

Two enoxaparin dosage regimens are used as comparators to evaluate new anticoagulants for thromboprophylaxis in patients undergoing major orthopaedic surgery, but so far no satisfactory direct comparison between them has been published. Our objective was to compare the efficacy and safety of enoxaparin 3,000 anti-Xa IU twice daily and enoxaparin 4,000 anti-Xa IU once daily in this clinical setting by indirect comparison meta-analysis, using Bucher's method. We selected randomised controlled trials comparing another anticoagulant, placebo (or no treatment) with either enoxaparin regimen for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis after hip or knee replacement or hip fracture surgery, provided that the second regimen was assessed elsewhere versus the same comparator. Two authors independently evaluated study eligibility, extracted the data, and assessed the risk of bias. The primary efficacy outcome was the incidence of venous thomboembolism. The main safety outcome was the incidence of major bleeding. Overall, 44 randomised comparisons in 56,423 patients were selected, 35 being double-blind (54,117 patients). Compared with enoxaparin 4,000 anti-Xa IU once daily, enoxaparin 3,000 anti-Xa IU twice daily was associated with a reduced risk of venous thromboembolism (relative risk [RR]: 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40 to 0.69), but an increased risk of major bleeding (RR: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.23 to 3.29). In conclusion, when interpreting the benefit-risk ratio of new anticoagulant drugs versus enoxaparin for thromboprophylaxis after major orthopaedic surgery, the apparently greater efficacy but higher bleeding risk of the twice-daily 3,000 anti-Xa IU enoxaparin regimen compared to the once-daily 4,000 anti-Xa IU regimen should be taken into account.

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP on chromosome 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance.

BackgroundBipolar disorder is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for bipolar disorder in the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain.AimsWe sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on bipolar disorder risk by combining data from both bipolar disorder genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and brain eQTL.MethodTo detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with bipolar disorder, we jointly analysed data from a bipolar disorder GWAS (7481 cases and 9250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (n = 5775) and cognitive performance (n = 342) among healthy individuals.ResultsIntegrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 on chromosome 20q11.22 and bipolar disorder (log Bayes factor = 5.48; bipolar disorder P = 5.85×10(-5)). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and bipolar disorder susceptibility (P = 3.54×10(-8)). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy individuals.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for bipolar disorder; they also highlight the informative value of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex disorders, such as bipolar disorder.